A new method for constructing exact tests without making any assumptions

We present a new method for constructing exact distribution-free tests (and confidence intervals) for variables that can generate more than two possible outcomes.This method separates the search for an exact test from the goal to create a non-randomized test. Randomization is used to extend any exact test relating to meansof variables with finitely many outcomes to variables with outcomes belonging to agiven bounded set. Tests in terms of variance and covariance are reduced to testsrelating to means. Randomness is then eliminated in a separate step.This method is used to create confidence intervals for the difference between twomeans (or variances) and tests of stochastic inequality and correlation.

Credit card debt puzzles

Most US credit card holders revolve high-interest debt, often combined with substantial (i) asset accumulation by retirement, and (ii) low-rate liquid assets. Hyperbolic discounting can resolve only the former puzzle (Laibson et al., 2003). Bertaut and Haliassos (2002) proposed an 'accountant-shopper'framework for the latter. The current paper builds, solves, and simulates a fully-specified accountant-shopper model, to show that this framework canactually generate both types of co-existence, as well as target credit card utilization rates consistent with Gross and Souleles (2002). The benchmark model is compared to setups without self-control problems, with alternative mechanisms, and with impatient but fully rational shoppers.

The credit ratings game

The spectacular failure of top-rated structured finance products has broughtrenewed attention to the conflicts of interest of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs). We modelboth the CRA conflict of understating credit risk to attract more business, and the issuerconflict of purchasing only the most favorable ratings (issuer shopping), and examine theeffectiveness of a number of proposed regulatory solutions of CRAs. We find that CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings when there is a larger fraction of naive investors in the marketwho take ratings at face value, or when CRA expected reputation costs are lower. To theextent that in booms the fraction of naive investors is higher, and the reputation risk forCRAs of getting caught understating credit risk is lower, our model predicts that CRAs aremore likely to understate credit risk in booms than in recessions. We also show that, due toissuer shopping, competition among CRAs in a duopoly is less efficient (conditional on thesame equilibrium CRA rating policy) than having a monopoly CRA, in terms of both totalex-ante surplus and investor surplus. Allowing tranching decreases total surplus further.We argue that regulatory intervention requiring upfront payments for rating services (beforeCRAs propose a rating to the issuer) combined with mandatory disclosure of any ratingproduced by CRAs can substantially mitigate the con.icts of interest of both CRAs andissuers.

Macroprudential policy, countercyclical bank capital buffers and credit supply: Evidence from the Spanish dynamic provisioning experiments

We analyze the impact of countercyclical capital buffers held by banks on the supplyof credit to firms and their subsequent performance. Spain introduced dynamicprovisioning unrelated to specific bank loan losses in 2000 and modified its formulaparameters in 2005 and 2008. In each case, individual banks were impacteddifferently. The resultant bank-specific shocks to capital buffers, coupled withcomprehensive bank-, firm-, loan-, and loan application-level data, allow us toidentify its impact on the supply of credit and on real activity. Our estimates showthat countercyclical dynamic provisioning smooths cycles in the supply of credit andin bad times upholds firm financing and performance.

A randomized concave programming method for choice network revenue management

Models incorporating more realistic models of customer behavior, as customers choosing froman offer set, have recently become popular in assortment optimization and revenue management.The dynamic program for these models is intractable and approximated by a deterministiclinear program called the CDLP which has an exponential number of columns. However, whenthe segment consideration sets overlap, the CDLP is difficult to solve. Column generationhas been proposed but finding an entering column has been shown to be NP-hard. In thispaper we propose a new approach called SDCP to solving CDLP based on segments and theirconsideration sets. SDCP is a relaxation of CDLP and hence forms a looser upper bound onthe dynamic program but coincides with CDLP for the case of non-overlapping segments. Ifthe number of elements in a consideration set for a segment is not very large (SDCP) can beapplied to any discrete-choice model of consumer behavior. We tighten the SDCP bound by(i) simulations, called the randomized concave programming (RCP) method, and (ii) by addingcuts to a recent compact formulation of the problem for a latent multinomial-choice model ofdemand (SBLP+). This latter approach turns out to be very effective, essentially obtainingCDLP value, and excellent revenue performance in simulations, even for overlapping segments.By formulating the problem as a separation problem, we give insight into why CDLP is easyfor the MNL with non-overlapping considerations sets and why generalizations of MNL posedifficulties. We perform numerical simulations to determine the revenue performance of all themethods on reference data sets in the literature.

Credit lines: The other side of corporate liquidity

In this paper we offer the first large sample evidence on the availability and usage ofcredit lines in U.S. public corporations and use it to re-examine the existing findings oncorporate liquidity. We show that the availability of credit lines is widespread and thataverage undrawn credit is of the same order of magnitude as cash holdings. We test thetrade-off theory of liquidity according to which firms target an optimum level of liquidity,computed as the sum of cash and undrawn credit lines. We provide support for the existenceof a liquidity target, but also show that the reasons why firms hold cash and credit linesare very different. While the precautionary motive explains well cash holdings, the optimumlevel of credit lines appears to be driven by the restrictions imposed by the credit line itself,in terms of stated purpose and covenants. In support to these findings, credit line drawdownsare associated with capital expenditures, acquisitions, and working capital.

Biological markers of alcohol consumption in alcoholised drivers: Comparison of capillary electrophoresis (CZE CDT) and a direct immunoassay (N Latex CDT) with the traditional method of anion-exchange chromatography-immunoturbidimetry (%CDT TIA).

Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare specificity and sensitivity of different biological markers that can be used in a forensic field to identify potentially dangerous drivers because of their alcohol habits. Methods: We studied 280 Swiss drivers after driving while under the alcohol influence. 33 were excluded for not having CDT N results, 247 were included (218 men (88%) and 29 women (12%). Mean age was 42,4 (SD:12, min: 20 max: 76). The evaluation of the alcohol consumption concerned the month before the CDT test and was considered as such after the interview: Heavy drinkers (>3 drinks per day): 60 (32.7%), < 3 drinks per day and moderate: 127 (51.4%) 114 (46.5%), abstinent: 60 (24.3%) 51 (21%). Alcohol intake was monitored by structured interviews, self-reported drinking habits and the C-Audit questionnaire as well as information provided by their family and general practitioner. Consumption was quantified in terms of standard drinks, which contain approximately 10 grams of pure alcohol (Ref. WHO). Results: comparison between moderate (less or equal to 3 drinks per day) and excessive drinkers (more than 3 drinks) Marker ROC area 95% CI cut-off sensitivity specificity CDT TIA 0.852 0.786-0917 2.6* 0.93 LR+1.43 0.35 LR-0.192 CDT N latex 0.875 0.821-0.930 2.5* 0.66 LR+ 6.93 0.90 LR- 0.369 Asialo+disialo-tf 0.881 0.826-0.936 1.2* 0.78 LR+4.07 0.80 LR-0.268 1.7° 0.66 LR+8.9 0.93 LR-0.360 GGT 0.659 0.580-0.737 85* 0.37 LR+2.14 0.83 LR-0.764 * cut-off point suggested by the manufacturer ° cut-off point suggested by our laboratory Conclusion: With the cut-off point established by the manufacturer, CDT TIA performed poorly in term of specificity. N latex CDT and CZE CDT were better, especially if a 1.7 cut-off is used with CZE

Endogenous credit cycles

I develop an overlapping-generations framework in which changes in lending standards generateendogenous cycles. In my economy, entrepreneurs who are privately informed about thequality of their projects need to borrow funds. Intermediaries screen entrepreneurs both throughthe amount of investment undertaken and through the level of entrepreneurial net worth.I show that endogenous regime switches in financial contracts from pooling to separatingand vice-versa may generate fluctuations even in the absence of exogenous shocks. Whenthe economy is in the pooling (separating) regime, lending standards seem lax ( tight ) andinvestment is high (low). Differently from the existing literature, my model does not requireentrepreneurial net worth to be counter cyclycal or inconsequential for determining aggregateinvestment.

Is the person trade-off a valid method for allocating health care resources? Some caveats

The Person Trade-Off (PTO) is a methodology aimed at measuring thesocial value of health states. The rest of methodologies would measure individualutility and would be less appropriate for taking resource allocation decisions.However few studies have been conducted to test the validity of the method.We present a pilot study with this objective. The study is based on theresult of interviews to 30 undergraduate students in Economics. We judgethe validity of PTO answers by their adequacy to three hypothesis of rationality.First, we show that, given certain rationality assumptions, PTO answersshould be predicted from answers to Standard Gamble questions. This firsthypothesis is not verified. The second hypothesis is that PTO answersshould not vary with different frames of equivalent PTO questions. Thissecond hypothesis is also not verified. Our third hypothesis is that PTOvalues should predict social preferences for allocating resources betweenpatients. This hypothesis is verified. The evidence on the validity of themethod is then conflicting.

Improving the sensitivity of the sequence profile method.

The sequence profile method (Gribskov M, McLachlan AD, Eisenberg D, 1987, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 84:4355-4358) is a powerful tool to detect distant relationships between amino acid sequences. A profile is a table of position-specific scores and gap penalties, providing a generalized description of a protein motif, which can be used for sequence alignments and database searches instead of an individual sequence. A sequence profile is derived from a multiple sequence alignment. We have found 2 ways to improve the sensitivity of sequence profiles: (1) Sequence weights: Usage of individual weights for each sequence avoids bias toward closely related sequences. These weights are automatically assigned based on the distance of the sequences using a published procedure (Sibbald PR, Argos P, 1990, J Mol Biol 216:813-818). (2) Amino acid substitution table: In addition to the alignment, the construction of a profile also needs an amino acid substitution table. We have found that in some cases a new table, the BLOSUM45 table (Henikoff S, Henikoff JG, 1992, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 89:10915-10919), is more sensitive than the original Dayhoff table or the modified Dayhoff table used in the current implementation. Profiles derived by the improved method are more sensitive and selective in a number of cases where previous methods have failed to completely separate true members from false positives.

Boundedly rational credit cycles

We propose an evolutionary model of a credit market. We show that theeconomy exhibits credit cycles. The model predicts dynamics which are consistent with some evidence about the Great Depression. Real shocks triggerepisodes of credit--crunch which are observed in the process of adjustmenttowards the post shock equilibrium.