Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New mechanical samples positioning system for irradiations on a radial channel at nuclear research reactor in a full-power continuous operation

This paper describes a new mechanical samples positioning system that allows the safe placement and removal of biological samples for prolonged irradiation, in a nuclear reactor during full-power continuous operation. Also presented herein the materials of construction and operating principles. Additionally, this sample positioning system is compared with an existing pneumatic and automated transfer system, already available at the research reactors. The system consists of a mechanical arm with a claw, which can deliver the samples for irradiations without reactor shutdown. It was installed in the lEA-R1 research reactor at Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, Brazil, and for the past 5 years, the system has successfully operated and allowed the conducting of important experiments. As a result of its introduction, the facility has been in a position to positively respond to the increased demand in studies of biology, medicine, physics, engineering, detector/dosimeter calibrations, etc. It is one example of the appropriated technologies that save energy and resources. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect on the heavy-ion fusion and elastic scattering cross sections of common approximations assumed in coupled-channel calculations

We study the effects of several approximations commonly used in coupled-channel analyses of fusion and elastic scattering cross sections. Our calculations are performed considering couplings to inelastic states in the context of the frozen approximation, which is equivalent to the coupled-channel formalism when dealing with small excitation energies. Our findings indicate that, in some cases, the effect of the approximations on the theoretical cross sections can be larger than the precision of the experimental data.

Identification of a novel ligand binding motif in the transthyretin channel

The design of therapeutic compounds targeting transthyretin (TTR) is challenging due to the low specificity of interaction in the hormone binding site. Such feature is highlighted by the interactions of TTR with diclofenac, a compound with high affinity for TTR, in two dissimilar modes, as evidenced by crystal structure of the complex. We report here structural analysis of the interactions of TTR with two small molecules, 1-amino-5-naphthalene sulfonate (1,5-AmNS) and 1-anilino-8-naphthalene sulfonate (1,8-ANS). Crystal structure of TTR: 1,8-ANS complex reveals a peculiar interaction, through the stacking of the naphthalene ring between the side-chain of Lys15 and Leu17. The sulfonate moiety provides additional interaction with Lys15` and a water-mediated hydrogen bond with Thr119`. The uniqueness of this mode of ligand recognition is corroborated by the crystal structure of TTR in complex with the weak analogue 1,5-AmNS, the binding of which is driven mainly by hydrophobic partition and one electrostatic interaction between the sulfonate group and the Lys15. The ligand binding motif unraveled by 1,8-ANS may open new possibilities to treat TTR amyloid diseases by the elucidation of novel candidates for a more specific pharmacophoric pattern. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Redox regulation of the mitochondrial K(ATP) channel in cardioprotection

The mitochondrial ATP-sensitive potassium channel (mK(ATP)) is important in the protective mechanism of ischemic preconditioning (IPC). The channel is reportedly sensitive to reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, and the aim of this study was to compare such species in parallel, to build a more comprehensive picture of mK(ATP) regulation. mK(ATP) activity was measured by both osmotic swelling and Tl(+) flux assays, in isolated rat heart mitochondria. An isolated adult rat cardiomyocyte model of ischemia-reperfusion (IR) injury was also used to determine the role of mK(ATP) in cardioprotection by nitroxyl. Key findings were as follows: (i) mK(ATP) was activated by O(2)(center dot-) and H(2)O(2) but not other peroxides. (ii) mK(ATP) was inhibited by NADPH. (iii) mK(ATP) was activated by S-nitrosothiols, nitroxyl, and nitrolinoleate. The latter two species also inhibited mitochondrial complex II. (iv) Nitroxyl protected cardiomyocytes against IR injury in an mK(ATP)-dependent manner. Overall, these results suggest that the mK(ATP) channel is activated by specific reactive oxygen and nitrogen species, and inhibited by NADPH. The redox modulation of mK(ATP) may be an underlying mechanism for its regulation in the context of IPC. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Mitochondria and Cardioprotection. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of a high fat diet on liver mitochondria: increased ATP-sensitive K(+) channel activity and reactive oxygen species generation

High fat diets are extensively associated with health complications within the spectrum of the metabolic syndrome. Some of the most prevalent of these pathologies, often observed early in the development of high-fat dietary complications, are non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases. Mitochondrial bioenergetics and redox state changes are also widely associated with alterations within the metabolic syndrome. We investigated the mitochondrial effects of a high fat diet leading to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in mice. We found that the diet does not substantially alter respiratory rates, ADP/O ratios or membrane potentials of isolated liver mitochondria. However, H(2)O(2) release using different substrates and ATP-sensitive K(+) transport activities are increased in mitochondria from animals on high fat diets. The increase in H(2)O(2) release rates was observed with different respiratory substrates and was not altered by modulators of mitochondrial ATP-sensitive K(+) channels, indicating it was not related to an observed increase in K(+) transport. Altogether, we demonstrate that mitochondria from animals with diet-induced steatosis do not present significant bioenergetic changes, but display altered ion transport and increased oxidant generation. This is the first evidence, to our knowledge, that ATP-sensitive K(+) transport in mitochondria can be modulated by diet.

Review of the literature on credit risk modeling : development of the past 10 years

This paper traces the developments of credit risk modeling in the past 10 years. Our work can be divided into two parts: selecting articles and summarizing results. On the one hand, by constructing an ordered logit model on historical Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes of articles about credit risk modeling, we sort out articles which are the most related to our topic. The result indicates that the JEL codes have become the standard to classify researches in credit risk modeling. On the other hand, comparing with the classical review Altman and Saunders(1998), we observe some important changes of research methods of credit risk. The main finding is that current focuses on credit risk modeling have moved from static individual-level models to dynamic portfolio models.

Combined Vertical And Lateral Channel Evolution Numerical Modeling

Vertical stream bed erosion has been studied routinely and its modeling is getting widespread acceptance. The same cannot be said with lateral stream bank erosion since its measurement or numerical modeling is very challenging. Bank erosion, however, can be important to channel morphology. It may contribute significantly to the overall sediment budget of a stream, is a leading cause of channel migration, and is the cause of major channel maintenance. However, combined vertical and lateral channel evolution is seldom addressed. In this study, a new geofluival numerical model is developed to simulate combined vertical and lateral channel evolution. Vertical erosion is predicted with a 2D depth-averaged model SRH-2D, while lateral erosion is simulated with a linear retreat bank erosion model developed in this study. SRH-2D and the bank erosion model are coupled together both spatially and temporally through a common mesh and the same time advancement. The new geofluvial model is first tested and verified using laboratory meander channels; good agreement are obtained between predicted bank retreat and measured data. The model is then applied to a 16-kilometer reach of Chosui River, Taiwan. Vertical and lateral channel evolution during a three-year period (2004 to 2007) is simulated and results are compared with the field data. It is shown that the geofluvial model correctly captures all major erosion and deposition patterns. The new model is shown to be useful for identifying potential erosion sites and providing information for river maintenance planning.

A Study On The Flow Characteristics Influenced By Hydraulic Structure At A Channel Junction

Natural riversare consisting of various networks as junction andstreams. And sediment and erosion are occurred by specific stream condition. When flood season,large discharge flew in the river and river bed changed by high flow velocity. Especially junction area’s flow characteristics are very complex. The purpose of this study is to analyze the flow characteristics in channel junction, which are most influenced by large discharge like flooding and input water from tributary. We investigate the flow characteristics by using hydrodynamics and transport module in MIKE 3 FM. MIKE 3 FM model was helpful tool to analysis 3D hydrodynamics, erosion and sediment effect from channel bed. We analyze flow characteristics at channel junction. Also we consider hydraulic structures like a bridge pier which is influencing flow characteristics like a flow velocity, water level, erosion and scour depth in channel bed. In the model, we controlled discharge condition according to Froude Number and reflect various grain diameter size and flow ratio change in main stream and tributary. In the result, flow velocity, water level, erosion and sediment depth are analyzed. Additionally, we suggest a these result relationship with equations. This study will help the understand flow characteristics and influence of hydraulic structure in channel junction. Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (12-TI-C01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Developing a Credit for Prior Learning Program: System-Wide Strategies for Program Creation, Operations, and Recruitment

Credit for prior learning programs help students complete degrees more quickly and for less money. This report addresses the challenges of scaling up a credit for prior learning program at the university system level, and explores the delineation of responsibilities between system staff and institutional staff.

Essays on credit and bankruptcy law

This thesis is composed of four papers referent to the subject of Credit and Bankruptcy Law. In each essay - that corresponds to one chapter - we aim at analyzing the ináuence of default on credit market, considering di§erent legal situations.

The Brazilian credit market for small and medium-sized firms: an adaptive marketing approach

Neste trabalho, o mercado brasileiro de crédito para pequenas e médias empresas (PMEs) é analisado sob a perspectiva do marketing adaptativo, em que se assume que atividades mercadológicas como segmentação, gestão de relacionamento com clientes, apreçamento e desenvolvimento de produtos, são determinadas pela utilidade obtida por agentes de mercado ao atenderem a demanda. Identifica-se que a existência de assimetria de informações e de custos de transação limita e direciona as atividades de marketing no mercado estudado. A partir de uma amostra com 65.535 propostas de crédito, recebidas e avaliadas por um grande banco brasileiro entre janeiro de 2004 e setembro de 2006, estima-se a utilidade do banco em operações de crédito. Adicionalmente, 17.149 transações de empréstimos concedidos pelo banco ao segmento de pequenas empresas entre abril de 2006 e março de 2007, são investigadas. Finalmente, um conjunto de dados com 1,636 registros obtidos pela junção das bases de dados de propostas e de transações mencionados, é analisado em termos das relações entre taxas de juros e os totais de cobertura oferecidas por meio de garantias de crédito. Os resultados revelam a existência de um ambiente de marketing adaptativo, em que os pequenos tomadores de crédito produtivo são racionados, e aceitam pagar taxas de juros mais elevadas do que outros segmentos. Produtos de créditos baseados em garantias líquidas e com altas taxas de juros são desenvolvidos para suprir de maneira oportuna este segmento racionado de pequenas empresas. Ademais, a utilidade do banco em operações de crédito é afetada pela informação privada que captura ao longo de relacionamentos mantidos com seus cientes. Os resultados implicam que o sistema de marketing financeiro brasileiro não desempenha papel formativo no desenvolvimento econômico, que seria de fomento ao crédito produtivo por meio de empréstimos a baixo custo para pequenas e médias empresas. Um sistema formativo de marketing é improvável em um ambiente com informação imperfeita, como o mercado de crédito brasileiro. O estudo traz informações úteis àqueles interessados no desenvolvimento de mercados de crédito produtivo, tais como profissionais de instituições financeiras; agentes responsáveis por políticas públicas e monetárias de fomento ao crédito; e empreendedores de pequeno e médio porte que necessitem de financiamento externo para seus negócios.

Sale of credit portfolio and risk : the case of financial institutions in Brazil

Este estudo analisa se as vendas de carteiras de crédito são utilizadas por instituições financeiras para gestão de risco, de acordo com Stanton(1998) e Murray(2001) ou para captação recursos, como apontado em Cebenoyan e Strahan(2001) e Dionne e Harchaoui(2003). Duas hipóteses foram testadas quanto às vendas de carteira de crédito: 1) implicam em melhor rating na carteira remanescente; ou 2) promovem alavancagem financeira - com piora na carteira remanescente -, controlando para a existência de coobrigação e para quem esses ativos foram transferidos. A amostra inclui informações trimestrais de 145 instituições financeiras do primeiro trimestre de 2001 ao segundo trimestre de 2008. Os resultados oferecem evidências empíricas de que as instituições financeiras utilizam estas vendas para melhora do rating da carteira de crédito remanescente, ou seja, elas transferem, em sua maioria, ativos de baixa qualidade, garantindo bons ratings e melhorando a liquidez. Adicionalmente, seguindo a proposta Dionne e Harchaoui(2003) - que além de testar, evidenciam que exigências regulatórias promovem alavancagem em ativos de alto risco - foi observada a relação entre o Índice de Basiléia e rating da carteira de crédito. As conclusões foram semelhantes às encontradas por Dionne e Harchaoui(2003): quanto mais adequada – maior Índice de Basiléia - uma instituição financeira for, maiores as chances de ela possuir uma carteira de crédito com qualidade ruim.