Using Behavioral Insights For a Better Understanding of Economic Decisions (Regarding Savings, Inequality and Dishonesty)

This dissertation consists of three essays on behavioral economics, with a general aim of enriching our understanding of economic decisions using behavioral insights and experimental methodology. Each essay takes on one particular topic with this general aim.

The first chapter studies savings behavior of the poor. In this project, partnering with a savings product provider in Kenya, we tested the extent to which behavioral interventions and financial incentives can increase the saving rate of individuals with low and irregular income. Our experiment lasted for six months and included a total of twelve conditions. The control condition received weekly reminders and balance reporting via text messages. The treatment conditions received in addition one of the following interventions: (1) reminder text messages framed as if they came from the participant’s kid (2) a golden colored coin with numbers for each week of the trial, on which participants were asked to keep track of their weekly deposits (3) a match of weekly savings: The match was either 10% or 20% up to a certain amount per week. The match was either deposited at the end of each week or the highest possible match was deposited at the start of each week and was adjusted at the end. Among these interventions, by far the most effective was the coin: Those in the coin condition saved on average the highest amount and more than twice as those in the control condition. We hypothesize that being a tangible track-keeping object; the coin made subjects remember to save more often. Our results support the line of literature suggesting that saving decisions involve psychological aspects and that policy makers and product designers should take these influences into account.

The second chapter is related to views towards inequality. In this project, we investigate how the perceived fairness of income distributions depends on the beliefs about the process that generated the inequality. Specifically, we examine how two crucial features of this process affect fairness views: (1) Procedural justice - equal treatment of all, (2) Agency - one's ability to determine his/her income. We do this in a lab experiment by varying the equality of opportunity (procedural justice), and one's ability to make choices, which consequently influence subjects’ ability to influence their income (agency). We then elicit ex-post redistribution decisions of the earnings as a function of these two elements. Our results suggest both agency and procedural justice matter for fairness. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Highlighting the importance of agency, we find that inequality resulting from risk is considered to be fair only when risk is chosen freely; (2) Highlighting the importance of procedural justice, we find that introducing inequality of opportunity significantly increases redistribution, however the share of subjects redistributing none remain close to the share of subjects redistributing fully revealing an underlying heterogeneity in the population about how fairness views should account for inequality of opportunity.

The third chapter is on morality. In this project, we study whether religious rituals act as an internal reminder for basic moral principles and thus affect moral judgments. To this end, we conducted two survey experiments in Turkey and Israel to specifically test the effect of Ramadan and Yom Kippur. The results from the Turkish sample how that Ramadan has a significant effect on moral judgments to some extent for those who report to believe in God. Those who believe in God judged the moral acceptability of ten out of sixty one actions significantly differently in Ramadan, whereas those who reported not to believe in God significantly changed their judgments only for one action in Ramadan. Our results extends the hypothesis established by lab experiments that religious reminders have a significant effect on morality, by testing it in the field in the natural environment of religious rituals.

This thesis is part of a broader collaborative research agenda with both colleagues and advisors. The programming, analyses, and writing, as well as any errors in this work, are my own.

New insights into Hoogsteen base pairs in DNA duplexes from a structure-based survey.

Hoogsteen (HG) base pairs (bps) provide an alternative pairing geometry to Watson-Crick (WC) bps and can play unique functional roles in duplex DNA. Here, we use structural features unique to HG bps (syn purine base, HG hydrogen bonds and constricted C1'-C1' distance across the bp) to search for HG bps in X-ray structures of DNA duplexes in the Protein Data Bank. The survey identifies 106 A•T and 34 G•C HG bps in DNA duplexes, many of which are undocumented in the literature. It also uncovers HG-like bps with syn purines lacking HG hydrogen bonds or constricted C1'-C1' distances that are analogous to conformations that have been proposed to populate the WC-to-HG transition pathway. The survey reveals HG preferences similar to those observed for transient HG bps in solution by nuclear magnetic resonance, including stronger preferences for A•T versus G•C bps, TA versus GG steps, and also suggests enrichment at terminal ends with a preference for 5'-purine. HG bps induce small local perturbations in neighboring bps and, surprisingly, a small but significant degree of DNA bending (∼14°) directed toward the major groove. The survey provides insights into the preferences and structural consequences of HG bps in duplex DNA.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.

Structure of the polyisoprenyl-phosphate glycosyltransferase GtrB and insights into the mechanism of catalysis.

The attachment of a sugar to a hydrophobic polyisoprenyl carrier is the first step for all extracellular glycosylation processes. The enzymes that perform these reactions, polyisoprenyl-glycosyltransferases (PI-GTs) include dolichol phosphate mannose synthase (DPMS), which generates the mannose donor for glycosylation in the endoplasmic reticulum. Here we report the 3.0 Å resolution crystal structure of GtrB, a glucose-specific PI-GT from Synechocystis, showing a tetramer in which each protomer contributes two helices to a membrane-spanning bundle. The active site is 15 Å from the membrane, raising the question of how water-soluble and membrane-embedded substrates are brought into apposition for catalysis. A conserved juxtamembrane domain harbours disease mutations, which compromised activity in GtrB in vitro and in human DPM1 tested in zebrafish. We hypothesize a role of this domain in shielding the polyisoprenyl-phosphate for transport to the active site. Our results reveal the basis of PI-GT function, and provide a potential molecular explanation for DPM1-related disease.

Clinical Insights Into the Biology and Treatment of Pancreatic Cancer.

Pancreatic cancer is a devastating disease with a universally poor prognosis. In 2015, it is estimated that there will be 48,960 new cases of pancreatic cancer and that 40,560 people will die of the disease. The 5-year survival rate is 7.2% for all patients with pancreatic cancer; however, survival depends greatly on the stage at diagnosis. Unfortunately, 53% of patients already have metastatic disease at diagnosis, which corresponds to a 5-year survival rate of 2.4%. Even for the 9% of patients with localized disease confined to the pancreas, the 5-year survival is still modest at only 27.1%. These grim statistics highlight the need for ways to identify cohorts of individuals at highest risk, methods to screen those at highest risk to identify preinvasive pathologic precursors, and development of effective systemic therapies. Recent clinical and translational progress has emphasized the relationship with diabetes, the role of the stroma, and the interplay of each of these with inflammation in the pathobiology of pancreatic cancer. In this article, we will discuss these relationships and how they might translate into novel management strategies for the treatment of this disease.

Synthesis and enzymatic evaluation of the guanosine analogue 2-amino-6-mercapto-7-methylpurine ribonucleoside (MESG): insights into the phosphorolysis reaction mechanism based on the blueprint transition state: SN1 or SN2?

A modified experimental procedure for the synthesis of MESG (2-amino-6-mercapto-7-methylpurine ribonucleoside) 1 has been successfully performed and its full characterization is presented. High resolution ESI(+)-MSMS indicates both the nucleoside bond cleavage as the main fragmentation in the gas phase and a possible SN1 mechanism. Ab initio transition state calculations based on the blue print transition state support this mechanistic rationale and discard an alternative SN2 mechanism. Assays using purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP) enzyme (human and M. tuberculosis sources) indicate its efficiency in the phosphorolysis of MESG and allow the quantitative determination of inorganic phosphate in real time assay.

Experts on e-learning: insights gained from listening to the student voice!

The Student Experience of e-Learning Laboratory (SEEL) project at the University of Greenwich was designed to explore and then implement a number of approaches to investigate learners’ experiences of using technology to support their learning. In this paper members of the SEEL team present initial findings from a University-wide survey of nearly a 1000 students. A selection of 90 ‘cameos’, drawn from the survey data, offer further insights into personal perceptions of e-learning and illustrate the diversity of students experiences. The cameos provide a more coherent picture of individual student experience based on the totality of each person’s responses to the questionnaire. Finally, extracts from follow-up case studies, based on interviews with a small number of students, allow us to ‘hear’ the student voice more clearly. Issues arising from an analysis of the data include student preferences for communication and social networking tools, views on the ‘smartness’ of their tutors’ uses of technology and perceptions of the value of e-learning. A primary finding and the focus of this paper, is that students effectively arrive at their own individualised selection, configuration and use of technologies and software that meets their perceived needs. This ‘personalisation’ does not imply that such configurations are the most efficient, nor does it automatically suggest that effective learning is occurring. SEEL reminds us that learners are individuals, who approach learning both with and without technology in their own distinctive ways. Hearing, understanding and responding to the student voice is fundamental in maximising learning effectiveness. Institutions should consider actively developing the capacity of academic staff to advise students on the usefulness of particular online tools and resources in support of learning and consider the potential benefits of building on what students already use in their everyday lives. Given the widespread perception that students tend to be ‘digital natives’ and academic staff ‘digital immigrants’ (Prensky, 2001), this could represent a considerable cultural challenge.

Memorandum submitted by the University of Greenwich: are the consumer price increases for electricity imposed in January 2008 justified?

This paper examines whether increases to published wholesale prices justify the retail electricity price increases imposed on residential consumers in January 2008. The study is based on analysis of two questions: Is the reported wholesale price a reliable indicator of the cost electricity retailers are paying to buy power; and is the corporate structure of the British electricity sector competitive? [Taken from first paragraph of summary]

Plankton, fisheries and climate change - insights into ocean ecosystems

This paper examines long term changes in the plankton of the North Atlantic and northwest European shelf seas and discusses the forcing mechanisms behind some observed interannual, decadal and spatial patterns of variability with a focus on climate change. Evidence from the Continuous Plankton Records suggests that the plankton integrates hydrometeorological signals and may be used as a possible index of climate change. Changes evident in the plankton are likely to have important effects on the carrying capacity of fisheries and are of relvance to eutrophication issues and to the assessment of biodiversity. The scale of the changes seen over the past five decades emphasises the importance of maintaining existing, and establishing new, long term and wide scale monitoring programmes of the world's oceans in initiatives such as the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).