Improved safety and reduction in stent thrombosis associated with biodegradable polymer-based biolimus-eluting stents versus durable polymer-based sirolimus-eluting stents in patients with coronary artery disease: final 5-year report of the LEADERS (Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating) randomized, noninferiority trial

OBJECTIVES This study sought to report the final 5 years follow-up of the landmark LEADERS (Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating) trial. BACKGROUND The LEADERS trial is the first randomized study to evaluate biodegradable polymer-based drug-eluting stents (DES) against durable polymer DES. METHODS The LEADERS trial was a 10-center, assessor-blind, noninferiority, "all-comers" trial (N = 1,707). All patients were centrally randomized to treatment with either biodegradable polymer biolimus-eluting stents (BES) (n = 857) or durable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (SES) (n = 850). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), or clinically indicated target vessel revascularization within 9 months. Secondary endpoints included extending the primary endpoint to 5 years and stent thrombosis (ST) (Academic Research Consortium definition). Analysis was by intention to treat. RESULTS At 5 years, the BES was noninferior to SES for the primary endpoint (186 [22.3%] vs. 216 [26.1%], rate ratio [RR]: 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68 to 1.02], p for noninferiority <0.0001, p for superiority = 0.069). The BES was associated with a significant reduction in the more comprehensive patient-orientated composite endpoint of all-cause death, any MI, and all-cause revascularization (297 [35.1%] vs. 339 [40.4%], RR: 0.84 [95% CI: 0.71 to 0.98], p for superiority = 0.023). A significant reduction in very late definite ST from 1 to 5 years was evident with the BES (n = 5 [0.7%] vs. n = 19 [2.5%], RR: 0.26 [95% CI: 0.10 to 0.68], p = 0.003), corresponding to a significant reduction in ST-associated clinical events (primary endpoint) over the same time period (n = 3 of 749 vs. n = 14 of 738, RR: 0.20 [95% CI: 0.06 to 0.71], p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS The safety benefit of the biodegradable polymer BES, compared with the durable polymer SES, was related to a significant reduction in very late ST (>1 year) and associated composite clinical outcomes. (Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating [LEADERS] trial; NCT00389220).

Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Kinetics of maternally acquired anti-hepatitis A antibodies: prediction of waning based on maternal or cord blood antibody levels

BACKGROUND Timing is critical for efficient hepatitis A vaccination in high endemic areas as high levels of maternal IgG antibodies against the hepatitis A virus (HAV) present in the first year of life may impede the vaccine response. OBJECTIVES To describe the kinetics of the decline of anti-HAV maternal antibodies, and to estimate the time of complete loss of maternal antibodies in infants in León, Nicaragua, a region in which almost all mothers are anti-HAV seropositive. METHODS We collected cord blood samples from 99 healthy newborns together with 49 corresponding maternal blood samples, as well as further blood samples at 2 and 7 months of age. Anti-HAV IgG antibody levels were measured by enzyme immunoassay (EIA). We predicted the time when antibodies would fall below 10 mIU/ml, the presumed lowest level of seroprotection. RESULTS Seroprevalence was 100% at birth (GMC 8392 mIU/ml); maternal and cord blood antibody concentrations were similar. The maternal antibody levels of the infants decreased exponentially with age and the half-life of the maternal antibody was estimated to be 40 days. The relationship between the antibody concentration at birth and time until full waning was described as: critical age (months)=3.355+1.969 × log(10)(Ab-level at birth). The survival model estimated that loss of passive immunity will have occurred in 95% of infants by the age of 13.2 months. CONCLUSIONS Complete waning of maternal anti-HAV antibodies may take until early in the second year of life. The here-derived formula relating maternal or cord blood antibody concentrations to the age at which passive immunity is lost may be used to determine the optimal age of childhood HAV vaccination.

Repeat chlamydia screening among adolescents: cohort study in a school-based programme in New Orleans

OBJECTIVES To describe uptake of chlamydia screening, determine rates of repeated yearly screening and investigate determinants of repeated participation in an organised school-based screening programme. METHODS The authors analysed data from 1995 to 2005 from female and male students in up to 13 schools in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. The authors calculated proportions of students tested among all enrolled students and among those with parental consent and the percentage of positive chlamydia tests in each school year. The authors used random effects logistic regression to examine the effect of past screening history on subsequent participation. RESULTS 35 041 students were registered for at least one school year. Overall coverage was >30% in all school years. Among all students registered for 4 years, 10.6% (95% CI 9.3% to 12.0%) of women and 12.7% (95% CI 11.2% to 14.2%) of men had a test every year. Among students with parental consent for 4 years, 49.3% (95% CI 44.6% to 54.1%) of women and 59.3% (95% CI 54.5% to 64.0%) of men had a test every year. Among students registered for 2 or more years, those with a previous positive chlamydia test were less likely to have a subsequent test (female adjusted OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.88 and male adjusted OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.02). Chlamydia positivity increased over time. CONCLUSIONS High levels of uptake can be achieved in school-based chlamydia screening programmes, but repeated yearly screening is difficult to sustain over time.

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected.

Alcohol-selling outlets and mortality in Switzerland--the Swiss National Cohort

AIM To examine the association of alcohol-related mortality and other causes of death with neighbourhood density of alcohol-selling outlets for on-site consumption. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal study of the adult Swiss population (n = 4 376 873) based on census records linked to mortality data from 2001 to 2008. MEASUREMENTS Sex-specific hazard ratios (HR) for death and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated using Cox models adjusting for age, educational level, occupational attainment, marital status and other potential confounders. The density of alcohol-selling outlets within 1000 m of the residence was calculated using geocodes of outlets and residences. FINDINGS Compared with >17 outlets within 1000 m the HR for alcohol-related mortality in men was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.89-1.02) for 8-17 outlets, 0.84 (95%CI: 0.77-0.90) for 3-7 outlets, 0.76 (95%CI: 0.68-0.83) for 1-2 outlets and 0.60 (95%CI: 0.51-0.72) for 0 outlets. The gradient in women was somewhat steeper, with a HR comparing 0 with >17 outlets of 0.39 (95%CI: 0.26-0.60). Mortality from mental and behavioural causes and lung cancer were also associated with density of alcohol-selling outlets: HRs comparing 0 outlets with >17 outlets were 0.64 (95%CI: 0.52-0.79) and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.72-0.88), respectively, in men and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.27-0.78) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52-0.77), respectively, in women. There were weak associations in the same direction with all-cause mortality in men but not in women. CONCLUSIONS In Switzerland, alcohol-related mortality is associated with the density of outlets around the place of residence. Community-level interventions to reduce alcohol outlet density may usefully complement existing interventions.

Patterns of exposure to infectious diseases and social contacts in early life and risk of brain tumours in children and adolescents: an International Case-Control Study (CEFALO)

BACKGROUND Infectious diseases and social contacts in early life have been proposed to modulate brain tumour risk during late childhood and adolescence. METHODS CEFALO is an interview-based case-control study in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, including children and adolescents aged 7-19 years with primary intracranial brain tumours diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 and matched population controls. RESULTS The study included 352 cases (participation rate: 83%) and 646 controls (71%). There was no association with various measures of social contacts: daycare attendance, number of childhours at daycare, attending baby groups, birth order or living with other children. Cases of glioma and embryonal tumours had more frequent sick days with infections in the first 6 years of life compared with controls. In 7-19 year olds with 4+ monthly sick day, the respective odds ratios were 2.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.57-5.50) and 4.21 (95% confidence interval: 1.24-14.30). INTERPRETATION There was little support for the hypothesis that social contacts influence childhood and adolescent brain tumour risk. The association between reported sick days due to infections and risk of glioma and embryonal tumour may reflect involvement of immune functions, recall bias or inverse causality and deserve further attention.

Retention in care under universal antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') in Malawi

OBJECTIVE To explore the levels and determinants of loss to follow-up (LTF) under universal lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for pregnant and breastfeeding women ('Option B+') in Malawi. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We examined retention in care, from the date of ART initiation up to 6 months, for women in the Option B+ program. We analysed nationwide facility-level data on women who started ART at 540 facilities (n = 21 939), as well as individual-level data on patients who started ART at 19 large facilities (n = 11 534). RESULTS Of the women who started ART under Option B+ (n = 21 939), 17% appeared to be lost to follow-up 6 months after ART initiation. Most losses occurred in the first 3 months of therapy. Option B+ patients who started therapy during pregnancy were five times more likely than women who started ART in WHO stage 3/4 or with a CD4 cell count 350 cells/μl or less, to never return after their initial clinic visit [odds ratio (OR) 5.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.2-6.1]. Option B+ patients who started therapy while breastfeeding were twice as likely to miss their first follow-up visit (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.8). LTF was highest in pregnant Option B+ patients who began ART at large clinics on the day they were diagnosed with HIV. LTF varied considerably between facilities, ranging from 0 to 58%. CONCLUSION Decreasing LTF will improve the effectiveness of the Option B+ approach. Tailored interventions, like community or family-based models of care could improve its effectiveness.

Decreasing risk of hepatitis a infection in león, nicaragua: evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal seroepidemiology studies

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Nicaragua is highly endemic for hepatitis A. We aimed to provide an estimate of the change in the age-specific risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection based on serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal samples collected in León, Nicaragua, in 1995/96 (n = 979) and 2003 (n = 494). METHODS The observed age-specific prevalence of anti-HAV antibodies was correlated to the age-specific risk of infection by calculating the probability of freedom from infection at a specific age. RESULTS The proportion of seropositive children aged 1.5 to 6 years was 42% in 2003 compared to 67% in 1995/96. Estimated annual risk of infection for a 3-year old child was 30% (95% CI: 27.0%, 33.1%) in 1995 and 15.5% (95% CI: 12.4%, 19.0%) in 2003. There was good agreement between estimates based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data. The age-specific geometric mean of the quantified anti-HAV antibody levels assessed in 2003 was highest at age 4 and decreased steadily up to age 40. CONCLUSIONS The substantially lower risk of HAV infection in 2003 than in 1995 for young children indicates a beginning transition from high to intermediate endemicity in León, Nicaragua. Consecutive age-stratified serosurveys are useful to assess changes in risk of infection following public health interventions. The decreasing age-specific GMC of anti-HAV antibodies during adulthood in a country with endemic HAV indirectly suggests that ongoing HAV exposure in the community has marginal boosting effect on antibody levels once protective immunity has been established by natural infection.

Suicide assisted by right-to-die associations: a population based cohort study

Background: In Switzerland, assisted suicide is legal but there is concern that vulnerable or disadvantaged groups are more likely to die in this way than other people. We examined socio-economic factors associated with assisted suicide. Methods: We linked the suicides assisted by right-to-die associations during 2003–08 to a census-based longitudinal study of the Swiss population. We used Cox and logistic regression models to examine associations with gender, age, marital status, education, religion, type of household, urbanization, neighbourhood socio-economic position and other variables. Separate analyses were done for younger (25 to 64 years) and older (65 to 94 years) people. Results: Analyses were based on 5 004 403 Swiss residents and 1301 assisted suicides (439 in the younger and 862 in the older group). In 1093 (84.0%) assisted suicides, an underlying cause was recorded; cancer was the most common cause (508, 46.5%). In both age groups, assisted suicide was more likely in women than in men, those living alone compared with those living with others and in those with no religious affiliation compared with Protestants or Catholics. The rate was also higher in more educated people, in urban compared with rural areas and in neighbourhoods of higher socio-economic position. In older people, assisted suicide was more likely in the divorced compared with the married; in younger people, having children was associated with a lower rate. Conclusions: Assisted suicide in Switzerland was associated with female gender and situations that may indicate greater vulnerability such as living alone or being divorced, but also with higher education and higher socio-economic position.

Relative Energy Balance, CKD, and Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality.

BACKGROUND Mortality risk for people with chronic kidney disease is substantially greater than that for the general population, increasing to a 7-fold greater risk for those on dialysis therapy. Higher body mass index, generally due to higher energy intake, appears protective for people on dialysis therapy, but the relationship between energy intake and survival in those with reduced kidney function is unknown. STUDY DESIGN Prospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 14.5 (IQR, 11.2-15.2) years. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS Blue Mountains Area, west of Sydney, Australia. Participants in the general community enrolled in the Blue Mountains Eye Study (n=2,664) who underwent a detailed interview, food frequency questionnaire, and physical examination including body weight, height, blood pressure, and laboratory tests. PREDICTORS Relative energy intake, food components (carbohydrates, total sugars, fat, protein, and water), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Relative energy intake was dichotomized at 100%, and eGFR, at 60mL/min/1.73m(2). OUTCOMES All-cause and cardiovascular mortality. MEASUREMENTS All-cause and cardiovascular mortality using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional regression models. RESULTS 949 people died during follow-up, 318 of cardiovascular events. In people with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m(2) (n=852), there was an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.48; P=0.03), but no increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.59; P=0.1) among those with higher relative energy intake compared with those with lower relative energy intake. Increasing intake of carbohydrates (HR per 100g/d, 1.50; P=0.04) and total sugars (HR per 100g/d, 1.62; P=0.03) was associated significantly with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. LIMITATIONS Under-reporting of energy intake, baseline laboratory and food intake values only, white population. CONCLUSIONS Increasing relative energy intake was associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m(2). This effect may be mediated by increasing total sugars intake on subsequent cardiovascular events.

Fluid intake and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney function: a population-based longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Drinking eight glasses of fluid or water each day is widely believed to improve health, but evidence is sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate the association between fluid consumption and long-term mortality and kidney function. METHODS We conducted a longitudinal analysis within a prospective, population-based cohort study of 3858 men and women aged 49 years or older residing in Australia. Daily fluid intake from food and beverages not including water was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. We did multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and a boot-strapping procedure for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS Upper and lower quartiles of daily fluid intake corresponded to >3 L and <2 L, respectively. During a median follow-up of 13.1 years (total 43 093 years at risk), 1127 deaths (26.1 per 1000 years at risk) including 580 cardiovascular deaths (13.5 per 1000 years at risk) occurred. Daily fluid intake (per 250 mL increase) was not associated with all-cause [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-1.01)] or cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.98 (95% CI 0.95-1.01)]. Overall, eGFR reduced by 2.2 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (SD 10.9) in the 1207 (31%) participants who had repeat creatinine measurements and this was not associated with fluid intake [adjusted regression coefficient 0.06 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per 250 mL increase (95% CI -0.03 to 0.14)]. CONCLUSIONS Fluid intake from food and beverages excluding water is not associated with improved kidney function or reduced mortality.

Exposure to Radio-Frequency Electromagnetic Fields From Broadcast Transmitters and Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-based Cohort Study

We investigated the association between exposure to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) from broadcast transmitters and childhood cancer. First, we conducted a time-to-event analysis including children under age 16 years living in Switzerland on December 5, 2000. Follow-up lasted until December 31, 2008. Second, all children living in Switzerland for some time between 1985 and 2008 were included in an incidence density cohort. RF-EMF exposure from broadcast transmitters was modeled. Based on 997 cancer cases, adjusted hazard ratios in the time-to-event analysis for the highest exposure category (>0.2 V/m) as compared with the reference category (<0.05 V/m) were 1.03 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 1.43) for all cancers, 0.55 (95% CI: 0.26, 1.19) for childhood leukemia, and 1.68 (95% CI: 0.98, 2.91) for childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Results of the incidence density analysis, based on 4,246 cancer cases, were similar for all types of cancer and leukemia but did not indicate a CNS tumor risk (incidence rate ratio = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.46). This large census-based cohort study did not suggest an association between predicted RF-EMF exposure from broadcasting and childhood leukemia. Results for CNS tumors were less consistent, but the most comprehensive analysis did not suggest an association.

An Innovative Family Preservation Program in an African American Community: Longitudinal Analysis

This paper presents a secondary analysis of data from a longitudinal evaluation of a community-based family preservation program in Portland, Oregon, designed for and by African Americans. Families served by the Family Enhancement Program (FEP) resemble chronically neglecting families in terms of numbers of children and length of contact with child protective services. Six- and twelve-month follow-ups for FEP clients were compared to data on families served by the Oregon State Office of Services to Children and Families (SOSCF). The author found that FEP families are more likely than SOSCFfamilies to show greater improvement between the pretest scores and the posttest scores for number of days in placement, number of placements, and number of founded maltreatment reports.