The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Namib Sand Sea digital database of aeolian dunes and key forcing variables

A new digital atlas of the geomorphology of the Namib Sand Sea in southern Africa has been developed. This atlas incorporates a number of databases including a digital elevation model (ASTER and SRTM) and other remote sensing databases that cover climate (ERA-40) and vegetation (PAL and GIMMS). A map of dune types in the Namib Sand Sea has been derived from Landsat and CNES/SPOT imagery. The atlas also includes a collation of geochronometric dates, largely derived from luminescence techniques, and a bibliographic survey of the research literature on the geomorphology of the Namib dune system. Together these databases provide valuable information that can be used as a starting point for tackling important questions about the development of the Namib and other sand seas in the past, present and future.

Correlations of control variables in variational data assimilation

Variational data assimilation systems for numerical weather prediction rely on a transformation of model variables to a set of control variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated. Most implementations of this transformation are based on the assumption that the balanced part of the flow can be represented by the vorticity. However, this assumption is likely to break down in dynamical regimes characterized by low Burger number. It has recently been proposed that a variable transformation based on potential vorticity should lead to control variables that are uncorrelated over a wider range of regimes. In this paper we test the assumption that a transform based on vorticity and one based on potential vorticity produce an uncorrelated set of control variables. Using a shallow-water model we calculate the correlations between the transformed variables in the different methods. We show that the control variables resulting from a vorticity-based transformation may retain large correlations in some dynamical regimes, whereas a potential vorticity based transformation successfully produces a set of uncorrelated control variables. Calculations of spatial correlations show that the benefit of the potential vorticity transformation is linked to its ability to capture more accurately the balanced component of the flow.

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis, this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. For a range of economic variables, substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.

Incorporation of water vapour transfer in the JULES Land Surface Model: implications for key soil variables and land surface fluxes

This study focuses on the mechanisms underlying water and heat transfer in upper soil layers, and their effects on soil physical prognostic variables and the individual components of the energy balance. The skill of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model (LSM) to simulate key soil variables, such as soil moisture content and surface temperature, and fluxes such as evaporation, is investigated. The Richards equation for soil water transfer, as used in most LSMs, was updated by incorporating isothermal and thermal water vapour transfer. The model was tested for three sites representative of semi-arid and temperate arid climates: the Jornada site (New Mexico, USA), Griffith site (Australia) and Audubon site (Arizona, USA). Water vapour flux was found to contribute significantly to the water and heat transfer in the upper soil layers. This was mainly due to isothermal vapour diffusion; thermal vapour flux also played a role at the Jornada site just after rainfall events. Inclusion of water vapour flux had an effect on the diurnal evolution of evaporation, soil moisture content and surface temperature. The incorporation of additional processes, such as water vapour flux among others, into LSMs may improve the coupling between the upper soil layers and the atmosphere, which in turn could increase the reliability of weather and climate predictions.

Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology

Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity is assessed by applying an algorithm for the detection and tracking of synoptic scale cyclones to mean sea level pressure data. The method, originally developed for the Southern Hemisphere, is adapted for application in the Northern Hemisphere winter season. NCEP-Reanalysis data from 1958/59 to 1997/98 are used as input. The sensitivities of the results to particular parameters of the algorithm are discussed for both case studies and from a climatological point of view. Results show that the choice of settings is of major relevance especially for the tracking of smaller scale and fast moving systems. With an appropriate setting the algorithm is capable of automatically tracking different types of cyclones at the same time: Both fast moving and developing systems over the large ocean basins and smaller scale cyclones over the Mediterranean basin can be assessed. The climatology of cyclone variables, e.g., cyclone track density, cyclone counts, intensification rates, propagation speeds and areas of cyclogenesis and -lysis gives detailed information on typical cyclone life cycles for different regions. The lowering of the spatial and temporal resolution of the input data from full resolution T62/06h to T42/12h decreases the cyclone track density and cyclone counts. Reducing the temporal resolution alone contributes to a decline in the number of fast moving systems, which is relevant for the cyclone track density. Lowering spatial resolution alone mainly reduces the number of weak cyclones.

Quantifying the climatological relationship between extratropical cyclone intensity and atmospheric precursors

We introduce a novel technique in which linear regression analysis is applied to clusters of tracked cyclones to statistically assess the factors controlling cyclone development. We illustrate this technique by evaluating the differences between cyclones forming in the west and east North Atlantic (herein termed west and east Atlantic cyclones). Enhanced cyclone intensity 2 days after genesis is found to be associated with deeper upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclone center at the genesis time in both west and east Atlantic cyclones. However, whilst west Atlantic cyclones are also enhanced by the presence of strong fronts, east Atlantic cyclones are not. Instead, east Atlantic cyclones exhibit an enhancement when diabatically generated midlevel potential vorticity is present (with the enhancement being of approximately equal magnitude to that associated with the potential vorticity in the upper-level trough). This is consistent with the paradigm of latent heat release in the warm conveyor belt region playing an important role in the development of east Atlantic cyclones.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

What variables condition syntactic transfer? A look at the L3 initial state

This study investigates transfer at the third-language (L3) initial state, testing between the following possibilities: (1) the first language (L1) transfer hypothesis (an L1 effect for all adult acquisition), (2) the second language (L2) transfer hypothesis, where the L2 blocks L1 transfer (often referred to in the recent literature as the ‘L2 status factor’; Williams and Hammarberg, 1998), and (3) the Cumulative Enhancement Model (Flynn et al., 2004), which proposes selective transfer from all previous linguistic knowledge. We provide data from successful English-speaking learners of L2 Spanish at the initial state of acquiring L3 French and L3 Italian relating to properties of the Null-Subject Parameter (e.g. Chomsky, 1981; Rizzi, 1982). We compare these groups to each other, as well as to groups of English learners of L2 French and L2 Italian at the initial state, and conclude that the data are consistent with the predictions of the ‘L2 status factor’. However, we discuss an alternative possible interpretation based on (psycho)typologically-motivated transfer (borrowing from Kellerman, 1983), providing a methodology for future research in this domain to meaningfully tease apart the ‘L2 status factor’ from this alternative account.

"Where am I?" Impact of display and content variables on spatial presence and comprehension in virtual environments

Forgetting immediate physical reality and having awareness of one�s location in the simulated world is critical to enjoyment and performance in virtual environments be it an interactive 3D game such as Quake or an online virtual 3d community space such as Second Life. Answer to the question "where am I?" at two levels, whether the locus is in the immediate real world as opposed to the virtual world and whether one is aware of the spatial co-ordinates of that locus, hold the key to any virtual 3D experience. While 3D environments, especially virtual environments and their impact on spatial comprehension has been studied in disciplines such as architecture, it is difficult to determine the relative contributions of specific attributes such as screen size or stereoscopy towards spatial comprehension since most of them treat the technology as monolith (box-centered). Using a variable-centered approach put forth by Nass and Mason (1990) which breaks down the technology into its component variables and their corresponding values as its theoretical basis, this paper looks at the contributions of five variables (Stereoscopy, screen size, field of view, level of realism and level of detail) common to most virtual environments on spatial comprehension and presence. The variable centered approach can be daunting as the increase in the number of variables can exponentially increase the number of conditions and resources required. We overcome this drawback posed by adoption of such a theoretical approach by the use of a fractional factorial design for the experiment. This study has completed the first wave of data collection and starting the next phase in January 2007 and expected to complete by February 2007. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.

Evaluating relative impact of virtual reality system variables on architectural design comprehension and presence - A variable-centered approach using fractional factorial experiment

The relative contributions of five variables (Stereoscopy, screen size, field of view, level of realism and level of detail) of virtual reality systems on spatial comprehension and presence are evaluated here. Using a variable-centered approach instead of an object-centric view as its theoretical basis, the contributions of these five variables and their two-way interactions are estimated through a 25-1 fractional factorial experiment (screening design) of resolution V with 84 subjects. The experiment design, procedure, measures used, creation of scales and indices, results of statistical analysis, their meaning and agenda for future research are elaborated.