Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden.

This paper highlights some communicative and institutional challenges to using ensemble prediction systems (EPS) in operational flood forecasting, warning, and civil protection. Focusing in particular on the Swedish experience, as part of the PREVIEW FP6 project, of applying EPS to operational flood forecasting, the paper draws on a wider set of site visits, interviews, and participant observation with flood forecasting centres and civil protection authorities (CPAs) in Sweden and 15 other European states to reflect on the comparative success of Sweden in enabling CPAs to make operational use of EPS for flood risk management. From that experience, the paper identifies four broader lessons for other countries interested in developing the operational capacity to make, communicate, and use EPS for flood forecasting and civil protection. We conclude that effective training and clear communication of EPS, while clearly necessary, are by no means sufficient to ensure effective use of EPS. Attention must also be given to overcoming the institutional obstacles to their use and to identifying operational choices for which EPS is seen to add value rather than uncertainty to operational decision making by CPAs.

Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system

In this paper ensembles of forecasts (of up to six hours) are studied from a convection-permitting model with a representation of model error due to unresolved processes. The ensemble prediction system (EPS) used is an experimental convection-permitting version of the UK Met Office’s 24- member Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The method of representing model error variability, which perturbs parameters within the model’s parameterisation schemes, has been modified and we investigate the impact of applying this scheme in different ways. These are: a control ensemble where all ensemble members have the same parameter values; an ensemble where the parameters are different between members, but fixed in time; and ensembles where the parameters are updated randomly every 30 or 60 min. The choice of parameters and their ranges of variability have been determined from expert opinion and parameter sensitivity tests. A case of frontal rain over the southern UK has been chosen, which has a multi-banded rainfall structure. The consequences of including model error variability in the case studied are mixed and are summarised as follows. The multiple banding, evident in the radar, is not captured for any single member. However, the single band is positioned in some members where a secondary band is present in the radar. This is found for all ensembles studied. Adding model error variability with fixed parameters in time does increase the ensemble spread for near-surface variables like wind and temperature, but can actually decrease the spread of the rainfall. Perturbing the parameters periodically throughout the forecast does not further increase the spread and exhibits “jumpiness” in the spread at times when the parameters are perturbed. Adding model error variability gives an improvement in forecast skill after the first 2–3 h of the forecast for near-surface temperature and relative humidity. For precipitation skill scores, adding model error variability has the effect of improving the skill in the first 1–2 h of the forecast, but then of reducing the skill after that. Complementary experiments were performed where the only difference between members was the set of parameter values (i.e. no initial condition variability). The resulting spread was found to be significantly less than the spread from initial condition variability alone.

An Ensemble Smoother with Error Estimates

A smoother introduced earlier by van Leeuwen and Evensen is applied to a problem in which real obser vations are used in an area with strongly nonlinear dynamics. The derivation is new , but it resembles an earlier derivation by van Leeuwen and Evensen. Again a Bayesian view is taken in which the prior probability density of the model and the probability density of the obser vations are combined to for m a posterior density . The mean and the covariance of this density give the variance-minimizing model evolution and its errors. The assumption is made that the prior probability density is a Gaussian, leading to a linear update equation. Critical evaluation shows when the assumption is justified. This also sheds light on why Kalman filters, in which the same ap- proximation is made, work for nonlinear models. By reference to the derivation, the impact of model and obser vational biases on the equations is discussed, and it is shown that Bayes’ s for mulation can still be used. A practical advantage of the ensemble smoother is that no adjoint equations have to be integrated and that error estimates are easily obtained. The present application shows that for process studies a smoother will give superior results compared to a filter , not only owing to the smooth transitions at obser vation points, but also because the origin of features can be followed back in time. Also its preference over a strong-constraint method is highlighted. Further more, it is argued that the proposed smoother is more efficient than gradient descent methods or than the representer method when error estimates are taken into account

Assimilation of Geosat Altimeter Data for the Agulhas Current Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Quasigeostrophic Model

The ring-shedding process in the Agulhas Current is studied using the ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate geosat altimeter data into a two-layer quasigeostrophic ocean model. The properties of the ensemble Kalman filter are further explored with focus on the analysis scheme and the use of gridded data. The Geosat data consist of 10 fields of gridded sea-surface height anomalies separated 10 days apart that are added to a climatic mean field. This corresponds to a huge number of data values, and a data reduction scheme must be applied to increase the efficiency of the analysis procedure. Further, it is illustrated how one can resolve the rank problem occurring when a too large dataset or a small ensemble is used.

Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses

Intercomparison and evaluation of the global ocean surface mixed layer depth (MLD) fields estimated from a suite of major ocean syntheses are conducted. Compared with the reference MLDs calculated from individual profiles, MLDs calculated from monthly mean and gridded profiles show negative biases of 10–20 m in early spring related to the re-stratification process of relatively deep mixed layers. Vertical resolution of profiles also influences the MLD estimation. MLDs are underestimated by approximately 5–7 (14–16) m with the vertical resolution of 25 (50) m when the criterion of potential density exceeding the 10-m value by 0.03 kg m−3 is used for the MLD estimation. Using the larger criterion (0.125 kg m−3) generally reduces the underestimations. In addition, positive biases greater than 100 m are found in wintertime subpolar regions when MLD criteria based on temperature are used. Biases of the reanalyses are due to both model errors and errors related to differences between the assimilation methods. The result shows that these errors are partially cancelled out through the ensemble averaging. Moreover, the bias in the ensemble mean field of the reanalyses is smaller than in the observation-only analyses. This is largely attributed to comparably higher resolutions of the reanalyses. The robust reproduction of both the seasonal cycle and interannual variability by the ensemble mean of the reanalyses indicates a great potential of the ensemble mean MLD field for investigating and monitoring upper ocean processes.

Contextualisation and authenticity in TBLT: voices from Chinese classrooms

In view of ongoing debates about the future of TBLT in EFL contexts (Thomas & Reinders, 2015; Zheng & Borg, 2014), we present a detailed case study of teacher beliefs and practices regarding TBLT conducted in a secondary school in mainland China with a long history of communicative and task-based teaching approaches. We used a mixed-methods approach to gather a broad range of triangulated data, combining individual interviews, material analysis and observations coded using a novel task-focused version of the COLT scheme (Littlewood, 2011; Spada & Fröhlich, 1995). Quantitative and qualitative findings revealed positive beliefs about TBLT principles in general, reflecting strong institutional support for communicative teaching. However, there was marked variability between beliefs and practices in using tasks, especially with beginner-level learners. Most teachers demonstrated an intrinsic lack of confidence in using tasks as more than a communicative ‘add-on’ to standard form-focused teaching. We argue this demonstrates a need for building teacher autonomy (Aoki, 2002; Benson, 2007), in implementing TBLT, even in supportive settings, to support successful authentic contextualising TBLT principles in different EFL contexts.

Clinical comparison between the bleaching efficacy of 37% peroxide carbamide gel mixed with sodium perborate with established intracoronal bleaching agent

Objective. The aim was to evaluate the bleaching efficacy of sodium perborate/37% carbamide peroxide paste and traditional sodium perborate/distilled water for intracoronal bleaching. Study design. Thirty patients with dark anterior teeth were divided into 2 groups (n = 15): group A: sodium perborate/ distilled water; and group B: sodium perborate/37% carbamide peroxide paste. The bleaching treatment limited each patient to the maximum of 4 changes of the bleaching agent. Initial and final color shades were measured using the Vita Lumin shade guide. Results. Data was analyzed with Wilcoxon test for initial and final comparison according to the bleaching agent, demonstrating efficacy of the bleaching treatment with both agents. Mann-Whitney test was used for comparison of the efficacy of the bleaching agents, showing that there was no significant difference between them. Conclusion. The sodium perborate/37% carbamide peroxide association for intracoronal bleaching has proven to be as effective as sodium perborate/distilled water. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2009; 107: e43-e47)

Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mixed-Ligand Complexes of Technetium and Rhenium with Tridentate Benzamidines and Bidentate Benzoylthioureas

Mixed-ligand complexes of technetium(V) or rhenium(V) containing tridentate N-[(dialkylamino)(thiocarbonyl)]benzamidine (H(2)L(1)) and bidentate N,N-dialkyl-N`-benzoylthiourea (HL(2)) ligands were formed in high yields when (NBu(4))[MOCl(4)] (M = Tc or Re) or [ReOCl(3)(PPh(3))(2)] was treated with mixtures of the proligands. Other approaches for the synthesis of the products are reactions of [MOCl(L(1))] complexes with HL(2) or compounds of the-composition [ReOCl(2)(PPh(3))(L(2))] with H(2)L(1). The resulting air-stable [MO(L(1))(L(2))] complexes possess potential for the development of metal-based radiopharmaceuticals. [TcO(L(1))(L(2))] complexes are readily reduced by PPh3 with formation of [Tc(L(1))(L(2))(PPh(3))]. The resulting Tc(III) complexes undergo two almost-reversible oxidation steps corresponding to one-electron transfer processes. ((C) Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, 69451 Weinheim, Germany, 2009)

The fall descriptions and health characteristics of older adults with hip fracture : a mixed methods study

Background: In light of the multifactorial etiology of fall-related hip fracture, knowledge of fall circumstances may be especially valuable when placed in the context of the health of the person who falls. We aimed to investigate the circumstances surrounding fall-related hip fractures and to describe fall circumstances in relation to participants' health and functional characteristics. Methods: The fall circumstances of 125 individuals (age >= 50 years) with hip fracture were investigated using semi-structured interviews. Data concerning participants' health (comorbidities and medications) and function (self-reported performance of mobility, balance, personal activities of daily living and physical activity, previous falls and hand grip strength) were collected via medical records, questionnaires and dynamometry. Using a mixed methods design, both data sets were analysed separately and then merged in order to provide a comprehensive description of fall events and identify eventual patterns in the data. Results: Fall circumstances were described as i) Activity at the time of the fall: Positional change (n = 24, 19%); Standing (n = 16, 13%); Walking (n = 71, 57%); Balance challenging (n = 14, 11%) and ii) Nature of the fall: Environmental (n = 32, 26%); Physiological (n = 35, 28%); Activity-related indoor (n = 8, 6%) and outdoor (n = 8, 6%); Trips and slips on snow (n = 20, 16%) and in snow-free conditions (n = 12, 10%) and Unknown (n = 10, 8%). We observed the following patterns regarding fall circumstances and participants' health: those who fell i) during positional change had the poorest functional status; ii) due to environmental reasons (indoors) had moderate physical function, but high levels of comorbidity and fall risk increasing medications; iii) in snow-free environments (outdoors) appeared to have a poorer health and functional status than other outdoor groups. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that patterns exist in relation to the falls circumstances and health characteristics of people with hip fracture which build upon that previously reported. These patterns, when verified, can provide useful information as to the ways in which fall prevention strategies can be tailored to individuals of varying levels of health and function who are at risk for falls and hip fracture.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Invariant tests in an instrumental variables model with unknown data generating process

In this work we focus on tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in a weakly identi ed instrumental variable regressionmodel. We propose a new unbiasedness restriction for weighted average power (WAP) tests introduced by Moreira and Moreira (2013). This new boundary condition is motivated by the score e ciency under strong identi cation. It allows reducing computational costs of WAP tests by replacing the strongly unbiased condition. This latter restriction imposes, under the null hypothesis, the test to be uncorrelated to a given statistic with dimension given by the number of instruments. The new proposed boundary condition only imposes the test to be uncorrelated to a linear combination of the statistic. WAP tests under both restrictions to perform similarly numerically. We apply the di erent tests discussed to an empirical example. Using data from Yogo (2004), we assess the e ect of weak instruments on the estimation of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of a CCAPM model.

Confinement of spin-0 and spin-1/2 particles in a mixed vector-scalar coupling with unequal shapes for the potentials

The Klein - Gordon and the Dirac equations with vector and scalar potentials are investigated under a more general condition, V-v = V-s + constant. These isospectral problems are solved in the case of squared trigonometric potential functions and bound states for either particles or antiparticles are found. The eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are discussed in some detail. It is revealed that a spin-0 particle is better localized than a spin-1/2 particle when they have the same mass and are subjected to the same potentials.

Thin films generated by plasma immersion ion implantation and deposition of hexamethyldisilazane mixed with nitrogen in different proportions

In this work, it was used a plasma system composed of a cylindrical stainless steel reactor, a radio-frequency (13.56MHz) power source fixed at either 25 W or 70 W, a power source with a negative bias of 10kV and a 100Hz pulse. The system worked at an operational pressure of 80mTorr which consisted of varying concentrations of the monomer HMDSN and gaseous nitrogen in ratios: HMDSN (mTorr)/nitrogen (mTorr) from 70/10 to 20/60 in terms of operational pressure. The structural characterization of the films was done by FTIR spectroscopy. Absorptions were observed between 3500 cm(-1) to 3200 cm(-1), 3000 cm(-1) to 2900 cm(-1), 2500 cm(-1) to 2000 cm(-1), 1500 cm(-1) to 700 cm(-1), corresponding, respectively, to OH radicals, C-H stretching bonds in CH2 and CH3 molecules, C-N bonds, and finally, strain C-H bonds, Si-CH3 and Si-N groups, for both the 70 W and the 25 W. The contact angle for water was approximately 100 degrees and the surface energy is near 25mJ/m(2) which represents a hydrophobic surface, measured by goniometric method. The aging of the film was also analyzed by measuring the contact angle over a period of time. The stabilization was observed after 4 weeks. The refractive index of these materials presents values from 1.73 to 1.65 measured by ultraviolet-visible technique.