Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Sensory information and associative cues used in food detection by wild vervet monkeys.

Understanding animals' spatial perception is a critical step toward discerning their cognitive processes. The spatial sense is multimodal and based on both the external world and mental representations of that world. Navigation in each species depends upon its evolutionary history, physiology, and ecological niche. We carried out foraging experiments on wild vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) at Lake Nabugabo, Uganda, to determine the types of cues used to detect food and whether associative cues could be used to find hidden food. Our first and second set of experiments differentiated between vervets' use of global spatial cues (including the arrangement of feeding platforms within the surrounding vegetation) and/or local layout cues (the position of platforms relative to one another), relative to the use of goal-object cues on each platform. Our third experiment provided an associative cue to the presence of food with global spatial, local layout, and goal-object cues disguised. Vervets located food above chance levels when goal-object cues and associative cues were present, and visual signals were the predominant goal-object cues that they attended to. With similar sample sizes and methods as previous studies on New World monkeys, vervets were not able to locate food using only global spatial cues and local layout cues, unlike all five species of platyrrhines thus far tested. Relative to these platyrrhines, the spatial location of food may need to stay the same for a longer time period before vervets encode this information, and goal-object cues may be more salient for them in small-scale space.

HPV clearance and the neglected role of stochasticity.

Clearance of anogenital and oropharyngeal HPV infections is attributed primarily to a successful adaptive immune response. To date, little attention has been paid to the potential role of stochastic cell dynamics in the time it takes to clear an HPV infection. In this study, we combine mechanistic mathematical models at the cellular level with epidemiological data at the population level to disentangle the respective roles of immune capacity and cell dynamics in the clearing mechanism. Our results suggest that chance-in form of the stochastic dynamics of basal stem cells-plays a critical role in the elimination of HPV-infected cell clones. In particular, we find that in immunocompetent adolescents with cervical HPV infections, the immune response may contribute less than 20% to virus clearance-the rest is taken care of by the stochastic proliferation dynamics in the basal layer. In HIV-negative individuals, the contribution of the immune response may be negligible.

Knowledge and judgments about events that occurred prior to birth: The measurement of the persistence of information

Data from five laboratories using five different techniques were reanalyzed to measure subjects' knowledge of events that occurred over the past 70 years. Subjects were about 20 years of age, so the measures included events that extended up to 50 years before birth. The functions relating knowledge about the events to age do not decrease precipitously at birth but gradually drop to above-chance levels. Techniques usually used to study retention within the individual can be used to study the persistence of ideas and fashions within an age cohort in a culture.

Dietary inference from upper and lower molar morphology in platyrrhine primates.

The correlation between diet and dental topography is of importance to paleontologists seeking to diagnose ecological adaptations in extinct taxa. Although the subject is well represented in the literature, few studies directly compare methods or evaluate dietary signals conveyed by both upper and lower molars. Here, we address this gap in our knowledge by comparing the efficacy of three measures of functional morphology for classifying an ecologically diverse sample of thirteen medium- to large-bodied platyrrhines by diet category (e.g., folivore, frugivore, hard object feeder). We used Shearing Quotient (SQ), an index derived from linear measurements of molar cutting edges and two indices of crown surface topography, Occlusal Relief (OR) and Relief Index (RFI). Using SQ, OR, and RFI, individuals were then classified by dietary category using Discriminate Function Analysis. Both upper and lower molar variables produce high classification rates in assigning individuals to diet categories, but lower molars are consistently more successful. SQs yield the highest classification rates. RFI and OR generally perform above chance. Upper molar RFI has a success rate below the level of chance. Adding molar length enhances the discriminatory power for all variables. We conclude that upper molar SQs are useful for dietary reconstruction, especially when combined with body size information. Additionally, we find that among our sample of platyrrhines, SQ remains the strongest predictor of diet, while RFI is less useful at signaling dietary differences in absence of body size information. The study demonstrates new ways for inferring the diets of extinct platyrrhine primates when both upper and lower molars are available, or, for taxa known only from upper molars. The techniques are useful in reconstructing diet in stem representatives of anthropoid clade, who share key aspects of molar morphology with extant platyrrhines.

Resources, experience and perseverance in entrepreneurs' perceived likelihood of success in an emerging economy

This paper introduces new results obtained from a statistical investigation into a 3071-observation data set collected from a Vietnamese nationwide entrepreneurship survey. From established relationships, such factors as preparedness, financial resources and participation in social networks are confirmed to have significant effects on entrepreneurial decisions. Entrepreneurs, both financially constrained and unconstrained, who have a business plan tend to start their entrepreneurial ventures earlier. Also, financial constraints have a profound impact on the entrepreneurial decisions. When perceiving the likelihood of success to be high, an entrepreneur shows the tendency for prompt action on business ideas. But when seeing the risk of prolonging the waiting time to first revenue, a prospective entrepreneur would be more likely to wait for more favorable conditions despite the vagueness of "favorable". Additionally, empirical computations indicate that there is a 41.3% probability that an extant entrepreneur who is generating revenue sees high chance of success. Past work and entrepreneurial experiences also have positive impacts on both the entrepreneurial decisions and perceived chance of success.

The HITRAN 2008 molecular spectroscopic database

This paper describes the status of the 2008 edition of the HITRAN molecular spectroscopic database. The new edition is the first official public release since the 2004 edition, although a number of crucial updates had been made available online since 2004. The HITRAN compilation consists of several components that serve as input for radiative-transfer calculation codes: individual line parameters for the microwave through visible spectra of molecules in the gas phase; absorption cross-sections for molecules having dense spectral features, i.e. spectra in which the individual lines are not resolved; individual line parameters and absorption cross-sections for bands in the ultraviolet; refractive indices of aerosols, tables and files of general properties associated with the database; and database management software. The line-by-line portion of the database contains spectroscopic parameters for 42 molecules including many of their isotopologues. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

The HITRAN molecular spectroscopic database: Edition of 2000 including updates through 2001

This paper describes the status circa 2001, of the HITRAN compilation that comprises the public edition available through 2001. The HITRAN compilation consists of several components useful for radiative transfer calculation codes: high-resolution spectroscopic parameters of molecules in the gas phase, absorption cross-sections for molecules with very dense spectral features, aerosol refractive indices, ultraviolet line-by-line parameters and absorption cross-sections, and associated database management software. The line-by-line portion of the database contains spectroscopic parameters for 38 molecules and their isotopologues and isotopomers suitable for calculating atmospheric transmission and radiance properties. Many more molecular species are presented in the infrared cross-section data than in the previous edition, especially the chlorofluorocarbons and their replacement gases. There is now sufficient representation so that quasi-quantitative simulations can be obtained with the standard radiance codes. In addition to the description and justification of new or modified data that have been incorporated since the last edition of HITRAN (1996), future modifications are indicated for cases considered to have a significant impact on remote-sensing experiments. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The HITRAN 2004 molecular spectroscopic database

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The FUELCON meta-architecture, in the landscape of intelligent technologies for refuelling

The conception of the FUELCON architecture, of a composite tool for the generation and validation of patterns for assigning fuel assemblies to the positions in the grid of a reactor core section, has undergone an evolution throughout the history of the project. Different options for various subtask were possible, envisioned, or actually explored or adopted. We project these successive, or even concomitant configurations of the architecture, into a meta-architecture, which quite not by chance happens to reflect basic choices in the field's history over the last decade.

The Jama legal narrative. Part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, we reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: "The Jama Model. On Legal Narratives and Interpretation Patterns"), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story, is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability was infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for AI researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flouishing among legal scholars. Nowadays both the the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and Bayesioskeptics (e.g. Ron Allen) among those legal scholars whoare involved in the controversy are willing to give AI researchers a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application or probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making (Rosoni 1995). Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

Identifying the damage mechanisms in paper using the acoustic emission monitoring technique

This paper investigates the use of the acoustic emission (AE) monitoring technique for use in identifying the damage mechanisms present in paper associated with its production process. The microscopic structure of paper consists of a random mesh of paper fibres connected by hydrogen bonds. This implies the existence of two damage mechanisms, the failure of a fibre-fibre bond and the failure of a fibre. This paper describes a hybrid mathematical model which couples the mechanics of the mass-spring model to the acoustic wave propagation model for use in generating the acoustic signal emitted by complex structures of paper fibres under strain. The derivation of the mass-spring model can be found in [1,2], with details of the acoustic wave equation found in [3,4]. The numerical implementation of the vibro-acoustic model is discussed in detail with particular emphasis on the damping present in the numerical model. The hybrid model uses an implicit solver which intrinsically introduces artificial damping to the solution. The artificial damping is shown to affect the frequency response of the mass-spring model, therefore certain restrictions on the simulation time step must be enforced so that the model produces physically accurate results. The hybrid mathematical model is used to simulate small fibre networks to provide information on the acoustic response of each damage mechanism. The simulated AEs are then analysed using a continuous wavelet transform (CWT), described in [5], which provides a two dimensional time-frequency representation of the signal. The AEs from the two damage mechanisms show different characteristics in the CWT so that it is possible to define a fibre-fibre bond failure by the criteria listed below. The dominant frequency components of the AE must be at approximately 250 kHz or 750 kHz. The strongest frequency component may be at either approximately 250 kHz or 750 kHz. The duration of the frequency component at approximately 250 kHz is longer than that of the frequency component at approximately 750 kHz. Similarly, the criteria for identifying a fibre failure are given below. The dominant frequency component of the AE must be greater than 800 kHz. The duration of the dominant frequency component must be less than 5.00E-06 seconds. The dominant frequency component must be present at the front of the AE. Essentially, the failure of a fibre-fibre bond produces a low frequency wave and the failure of a fibre produces a high frequency pulse. Using this theoretical criteria, it is now possible to train an intelligent classifier such as the Self-Organising Map (SOM) [6] using the experimental data. First certain features must be extracted from the CWTs of the AEs for use in training the SOM. For this work, each CWT is divided into 200 windows of 5E-06s in duration covering a 100 kHz frequency range. The power ratio for each windows is then calculated and used as a feature. Having extracted the features from the AEs, the SOM can now be trained, but care is required so that the both damage mechanisms are adequately represented in the training set. This is an issue with paper as the failure of the fibre-fibre bonds is the prevalent damage mechanism. Once a suitable training set is found, the SOM can be trained and its performance analysed. For the SOM described in this work, there is a good chance that it will correctly classify the experimental AEs.

Piranesi in Ghent

Piranesi in Ghent is an exhibition, a catalogue and a symposium. It is also a telling story in the recent scholarship and recurring ‘fashionable’ re-discoveries of Piranesi’s work. It is a funny story, a serious cultural enterprise that begins, like all good love stories, by chance. But there’s more here: scholarly passion, intellectual curiosity, design and experimentations: as well as reproductions, plates and debates, and a lot of challenging hypotheses and development possibilities. This is indeed a very Piranesian story and, as in Piranesi’s work, here the less visibly obvious is worthy of the greatest attention, because it reveals more, much more indeed, than what appears at first.

Performance assessment in serious games: Compensating for the effects of randomness

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We found large effects both theoretically and practically. In two existing serious games random guess scores were found to explain up to 41% of total scores. Monte Carlo simulation of random game play confirmed the substantial impact of randomness on performance. For valid performance assessments, be it in-game or post-game, the effects of randomness should be included to produce re-calibrated scores that can reasonably be interpreted as the players´ achievements.