Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Liminal Belonging: West African male asylum seekers’ narratives of the asylum experience whilst in Finland

The dominant discourses on the issue of asylum have placed it on a uniquely higher level of scrutiny as a politically very sensitive area for social research. Today, member states within the EU have implemented stricter policies to control new arrivals, whilst instituting statutory procedures to manage the existing asylum claims. In 2010, the number of applicants for asylum in Finland totalled 5988, out of which 1784 were given positive decisions. This thesis endeavour to highlight asylum seekers in the discourses about them by adding their voices to the discussions of them in contemporary Finland. Studies, which has concentrated on asylum seekers in Finland, uses the living conditions within asylum reception centres to assess the impacts of structural barriers on asylum seekers’ efforts to deal with the asylum process. By highlighting the impacts of the entire asylum process, which I believe starts from the country of origin; I focus on examining narratives of dealing with the experience of liminality whilst waiting for asylum, and then explore areas of possible participation within informal social networks for West African asylum seekers in Finland. The overall aim is to place the current research within the broader sociological discussion of ‘belonging’ for asylum seekers who are yet to be recognized as refugees, and who exist in a state of limbo. Methodologically, oral interviews, self-written autobiographical narratives, and ethnographic field work are qualitatively combined as data in this thesis for an empirical study of West African male asylum seekers in Finland. Narrative analysis is employed to analyze the data for this thesis. The ethnographic research data for the study began in May 2009 and ended in August of 2010. Altogether, ten interviews and four self-written narratives were collected as data. In total seven hours of audio recording were made, along eleven pages of hand-written autobiographical narratives. Field observation notes are employed in the study to provide contexts to the active interactional processes of interpretation throughout the analysis. Findings from the study suggest that within the experience of liminality, which surrounds the entire asylum process, participations within informal social networks are found to be important to the process of re-making place and the sense of belonging. My study shows that this is necessary to countering the experience of boredom, stress and social isolation, which permeate all aspects of life for West African asylum seekers, whilst they wait for asylum decisions in Finland.

Adaptive optimal load balancing in a nonhomogeneous multiserver system with a central job scheduler

A model comprising several servers, each equipped with its own queue and with possibly different service speeds, is considered. Each server receives a dedicated arrival stream of jobs; there is also a stream of generic jobs that arrive to a job scheduler and can be individually allocated to any of the servers. It is shown that if the arrival streams are all Poisson and all jobs have the same exponentially distributed service requirements, the probabilistic splitting of the generic stream that minimizes the average job response time is such that it balances the server idle times in a weighted least-squares sense, where the weighting coefficients are related to the service speeds of the servers. The corresponding result holds for nonexponentially distributed service times if the service speeds are all equal. This result is used to develop adaptive quasi-static algorithms for allocating jobs in the generic arrival stream when the load parameters are unknown. The algorithms utilize server idle-time measurements which are sent periodically to the central job scheduler. A model is developed for these measurements, and the result mentioned is used to cast the problem into one of finding a projection of the root of an affine function, when only noisy values of the function can be observed

Nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages of central Western Ghats

Community diversity and the population abundance of a particular group of species are controlled by immediate environment, inter-and intra-species interactions, landscape conditions, historical events and evolutionary processes. Nestedness is a measure of order in an ecological system, referring to the order in which the number of species is related to area or other factors. In this study we have studied the nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages in 24 stream sites of central Western Ghats, and report 98 taxa from the streams of central Western Ghats region. The communities show highly significant nested pattern. The Mantel test of matrix revealed a strong relationship between species assemblages and environmental conditions at the sites. A significant relationship between species assemblage and environmental condition was observed. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that environmental conditions differed markedly across the sampling sites, with the first three components explaining 78% of variance. Species composition of diatoms is significantly correlated with environmental distance across geographical extent. The current pattern suggests that micro-environment at regional levels influences the species composition of epilithic diatoms in streams. The nestedness shown by the diatom community was highly significant, even though it had a high proportion of idiosyncratic species, characterized with high numbers of cosmopolitan species, whereas the nested species were dominated by endemic species. PCA identifies ionic parameters and nutrients as the major features which determine the characteristics of the sampling sites. Hence the local water quality parameters are the major factors in deciding the diatom species assemblages.

Central Limit Theorem for truncated heavy tailed Banach valued random vectors

In this paper the question of the extent to which truncated heavy tailed random vectors, taking values in a Banach space, retain the characteristic features of heavy tailed random vectors, is answered from the point of view of the central limit theorem.

The central region of meso-3,4-diphenylhexane-2,5-dione

As with 1,2-diphenylethane (dpe), X-ray crystallographic methods measure the central bond in meso-3,4-diphenylhexane-2,5-done (dphd) as significantly shorter than normal for an sp(3)-sp(3) bond. The same methods measure the benzylic (ethane C-Ph) bonds in dphd as unusually long for sp(3)-sp(2) liaisons. Torsional motions of the phenyl rings about the C-Ph bonds have been proposed as the artifacts behind the result of a 'short' central bond in dpe. While a similar explanation can, presumably, hold for the even 'shorter' central bond in dphd, it cannot account for the 'long' C-Ph bonds. The phenyl groups, departing much from regular hexagonal shape, adopt highly skewed conformations with respect to the plane constituted by the four central atoms. It is thought that-the thermal motions of the phenyl rings, conditioned by the potential wells in which they are ensconced in the unit cell, are largely libratory around their normal axes. In what appears to be a straightforward explanation under the 'rigid-body' concept, it appears that these libratory motions of the phenyl rings, that account, at the same time, for the 'short' central bond, are the artifacts behind the 'long' measurement of the C-Ph bonds. These motions could be superimposed on torsional motions analogous to those proposed in the case of dpe. An inspection of the ORTEP diagram from the 298 K data on dphd clearly suggests these possibilities. Supportive evidence for these qualitative explanations from an analysis of the differences between the mean square displacements of C(1) and C(7)/C(1a) and C(7a) based on the 'rigid-body model' is discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the downstream region of Sharavathi river basin, Central Western Ghats

Landslides are hazards encountered during monsoon in undulating terrains of Western Ghats causing geomorphic make over of earth surface resulting in significant damages to life and property. An attempt is made in this paper to identify landslides susceptibility regions in the Sharavathi river basin downstream using frequency ratio method based on the field investigations during July- November 2007. In this regard, base layers of spatial data such as topography, land cover, geology and soil were considered. This is supplemented with the field investigations of landslides. Factors that influence landslide were extracted from the spatial database. The probabilistic model -frequency ratio is computed based on these factors. Landslide susceptibility indices were computed and grouped into five classes. Validation of LHS, showed an accuracy of 89% as 25 of the 28 regions tallied with the field condition of highly vulnerable landslide regions. The landslide susceptible map generated for the downstream would be useful for the district officials to implement appropriate mitigation measures to reduce hazards.

Influences of the springtime northern Indian biomass burning over the central Himalayas

The influences of the springtime northern Indian biomass burning are shown for the first time over the central Himalayas by using three years (2007-2009) of surface and space based observations along with a radiative transfer model. Near-surface ozone, black carbon (BC), spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) and the meteorological parameters are measured at a high altitude site Nainital (29.37 degrees N, 79.45 degrees E, 1958 m amsl) located in the central Himalayas. The satellite observations include the MODIS derived fire counts and AOD (0.55 mu m), and OMI derived tropospheric column NO(2), ultraviolet aerosol index and single scattering albedo. MODIS fire counts and BC observations are used to identify the fire-impacted periods (372 h during 2007-2009) and hence the induced enhancements in surface BC, AOD (0.5 mu m) and ozone are estimated to be 1802 ng m(-3) (similar to 145%), 0.3 (similar to 150%) and 19 ppbv (similar to 34%) respectively. Large enhancements (53-100%) are also seen in the satellite derived parameters over a 2 degrees x 2 degrees region around Nainital. The present analysis highlights the northern Indian biomass burning induced cooling at the surface (-27 W m(-2)) and top of the atmosphere (-8 W m(-2)) in the lesser polluted high altitude regions of the central Himalayas. This cooling leads to an additional atmospheric warming of 19 W m(-2) and increases the lower atmospheric heating rate by 0.8 K day(-1). These biomass burning induced changes over the central Himalayan atmosphere during spring may also lead to enhanced short-wave absorption above clouds and might have an impact on the monsoonal rainfall.