Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining the relationship between risk assessment and risk management in mental health

Risk assessment is crucial for developing risk management plans to prevent or minimize mental health patients' risks that will impede their recovery. Risk assessments and risk management plans should be closely linked. Their content and the extent to which they are linked within one Trust is explored. There is a great deal of variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses and how this is used to develop risk management plans. Keeping risk assessment information in one place rather than scattered throughout patient records is important for ensuring it can be accessed easily and linked properly to risk management plans. Strengthening the link between risk assessment and management will help ensure interventions and care is tailored to the specific needs of individual patients, thus promoting their safety and well-being. Thorough risk assessment helps in developing risk management plans that minimize risks that can impede mental health patients' recovery. Department of Health policy states that risk assessments and risk management plans should be inextricably linked. This paper examines their content and linkage within one Trust. Four inpatient wards for working age adults (18-65 years) in a large mental health Trust in England were included in the study. Completed risk assessment forms, for all patients in each inpatient ward were examined (n= 43), followed by an examination of notes for the same patients. Semi-structured interviews took place with ward nurses (n= 17). Findings show much variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses, which may be distributed in several places. Gaps in the risk assessment and risk management process are evident, and a disassociation between risk information and risk management plans is often present. Risk information should have a single location so that it can be easily found and updated. Overall, a more integrated approach to risk assessment and management is required, to help patients receive timely and appropriate interventions that can reduce risks such as suicide or harm to others. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing.

Cervicovaginal vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and risk of preterm birth (PTB)

Objective - During pregnancy, the human cervix undergoes angiogenic transformations. VEGF is expressed in cervical stroma and is proposed to play key roles in the process of cervical ripening and dilation. This study was conducted to evaluate whether cervical secretion of VEGF can be of clinical value in predicting impending PTB. Study Design - In an observational prospective cohort study, we analyzed cervical fluid samples from 103 pregnant women (GA: median [IQR]: 28 [25-31] wks) who presented for either a routine prenatal visit (n=61) or for evaluation of threatened preterm labor (n=42). Cervical secretions were collected under a standard protocol which was followed in all cases. Cervical length (CL) was assessed by transvaginal ultrasound using well-established criteria. Dilation was evaluated by digital exam performed only after collection of the biological samples. VEGF levels were immunoassayed by investigators unaware of the clinical outcome. Main exclusion criteria were ruptured membranes, active labor, vaginal bleeding, vaginal exam or intercourse within 24h. Results were analyzed with and without normalization for total protein. Results - 1) Clinical characteristics of the cohort are presented in Table;2) VEGF was detectable in all specimens, with no correlation between its levels, CL, twins or GA at collection; 3) There was an inverse correlation between VEGF and cervical dilation (R=-0.646, P=0.003); 4) Women with cervical dilation =1 cm had lower VEGF compared to those with a closed cervix (P=0.003); 5) Women who experienced PTB within 14 days (n=11) had lower VEGF (P=0.003); 6) A free VEGF level of =600 pg/mL had a sensitivity, specificity, +LR and -LR of 70%, 95%, 13.5 and 0.3, respectively in predicting PTB within 14 days. Conclusions - Low VEGF levels in the cervicovaginal secretions of pregnant women are associated with an increased risk of PTB within 2 weeks of collection. Active engagement of VEGF in the process of cervical ripening and dilatation and/or increased affinity of extracellular matrix components for VEGF may provide explanation for our findings.

Conjunctival UV autofluorescence - prevalence and risk factors

Purpose: Autofluorescence of ultraviolet (UV) light has been shown to occur in localised areas of the bulbar conjunctiva, which map to active cellular changes due to UV and environmental exposure. This study examined the presence of conjunctival UV autofluorescence in eye care practitioners (ECPs) across Europe and the Middle East and its associated risk factors. Method: Images were captured of 307 ECPs right eyes in the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Kuwait, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom using a Nikon D100 camera and dual flash units through UV filters. UV autofluorescence was outlined using ImageJ software and the nasal and temporal area quantified. Subjects were required to complete a questionnaire on their demographics and lifestyle including general exposure to UV and refractive correction. Results: Average age of the subjects was 38.5±12.2 years (range 19-68) and 39.7% were male. Sixty-two percent of eyes had some conjunctival damage as indicated by UV autofluorescence. The average area of damage was higher (p=0.005) nasally (2.95±4.52mm2) than temporally (2.19±4.17mm2). The area of UV damage was not related to age (r=0.03, p=0.674), gender (p=0.194), self-reported sun exposure lifestyle (p>0.05), geographical location (p=0174), sunglasses use (p>0.05) or UV-blocking contact lens use (p>0.05), although it was higher in those wearing contact lenses with minimal UV-blocking and no spectacles (p=0.015). The area of UV damage was also less nasally in those who wore contact lenses and spectacles compared to those with no refractive correction use (p=0.011 nasal; p=0.958 temporal). Conclusion: UV conjunctival damage is common even in Europe, Kuwait and UAE, and among ECPs. The area of damage appears to be linked with the use of refractive correction, with greater damage nasally than temporally which may be explained by the peripheral light focusing effect.

New biomarkers and risk stratification in atrial fibrillation:simplicity and practicality matter

Advances in our understanding of pathological mechanisms can inform the identification of various biomarkers for risk stratification, monitoring drug efficacy and toxicity; and enabling careful monitoring of polypharmacy. Biomarkers in the broadest sense refer to 'biological markers' and this can be blood-based (eg. fibrin D-dimer, von Willebrand factor, etc) urine-based (eg. thromboxane), or even related to cardiac or cerebral imaging(1). Most biomarkers offer improvements over clinical risk scores in predicting high risk patients - at least statistically - but usually at the loss of simplicity and practicality for easy application in everyday clinical practice. Given the various biomarkers can be informed by different aspects of pathophysiology (e.g. inflammation, clotting, collagen turnover) they can nevertheless contribute to a better understanding of underlying disease processes(2). Indeed, many age-related diseases share common modifiable underpinning mechanisms e.g. inflammation, oxidative stress and visceral adiposity.

Moral hazard, dividends, and risk in banks

In non-financial firms, higher risk taking results in lower dividend payout ratios. In banking, public guarantees may result in a positive relationship between dividend payout ratios and risk taking. I investigate the interplay between dividend payout ratios and bank risk-taking allowing for the effect of charter values and capital adequacy regulation. I find a positive relationship between bank risk-taking and dividend payout ratios. Proximity to the required capital ratio and a high charter value reduce the impact of bank risk-taking on the dividend payout ratio. My results are robust to different proxies for the dividend payout ratio and bank risk-taking. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bizalom és kockázat a kapcsolatokban – egy kísérlet eredményei = Relationship between trust and risk - results of an experiment

Műhelytanulmányunkban a diadikus kapcsolatokat állítjuk az elemzés középpontjába. A Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem másodéves, gazdálkodástudományi alapszakjaira járó hallgatóiból véletlenszerűen alakított kétoldalú kapcsolatokban a felek egymás iránt érzett bizalmi szintje és különböző szintű kockázat melletti konkrét cselekvése közötti kapcsolatot vizsgáltuk. Előzetes várakozásaink szerint a felek egymás iránt érzett bizalmi szintje befolyásolja, hogy különböző kockázati szintek mellett hogyan fognak a kapcsolatban szereplő egyének viselkedni. Empirikus elemzésünk során a közgazdaságtanban is elfogadott kísérlet eszközét választottuk, s konkrét adatainkat, megfigyeléseinket e módszertannal gyűjtöttük össze. Az így kapott mintát a Magyarországon a gazdálkodás-, illetve közgazdaságtudományban tudomásunk szerint eddig még nem használt diadikus adatelemzés speciális statisztikai módszertanát alkalmazva vizsgáltuk. Műhelytanulmányunk célja volt ezért az is, hogy ennek a hálózati gazdaság építőkövének, a kapcsolatnak a vizsgálatára alkalmas elemzési módszertannak az ismertetését is megtegyük. _______ In the working paper we have focused on the analysis of trust in dyadic relationships. We have assumed that trust is a kind of coordinating mechanism in these relationships, the existence of which influences interaction between dyadic partners. We carried out an experiment with the help of bachelor students studying at the Budapest Corvinus University. Our hypothesis was that medium and high level of trust will influence the willingness to take more risky decisions. These experiments have been realized in concrete personal dyads; therefore the applied statistical analysis was the dyadic analysis that is a new analytical method developed for analyzing such dyadic problem settings.

Speciális kockázatok és kockázatkezelés a kockázatitőke-finanszírozásban (The special risks and risk management of venture capital)

A tanulmányban a szerzők arra a kérdésre keresik a választ, hogy az aszimmetrikus információk hatására a vállalkozók és a befektetők között kialakuló megbízó-ügynök viszonynak melyek a speciális vetületei a kockázatitőke-finanszírozás vonatkozásában. A szerzők arra a következtetésre jutottak, hogy a hiányos információk, a megbízó-ügynök viszony, illetve az ügyletek speciális jellege miatt fokozottan jelentkező ügynökprobléma kezelésére a kockázatitőke-finanszírozás szereplői speciális kockázatkezelési technikákat alkalmaznak. Ilyenek a magas elvárt hozamok, a szigorú kiválasztási kritériumok, a speciális befektetési vagy szindikátusi szerződések, a befektetést követő monitoring tevékenység, a több lépcsőben történő finanszírozás és a portfólióvállalatok hálózatba szervezése. A speciális kockázati megközelítés következtében a befektetéseket opciós szemlélet is áthatja. _____ This paper focuses on the special aspects of imperfect information in case of venture capital financing including principal-agent relationship between entrepreneurs and investors as well as adverse selection that evolves as a result of information asymmetries. The authors’ finding is that venture capital is able to manage the problems caused by imperfect information via applying divers risk management techniques such as high profit expectations, scrutiny of portfolio-companies, the use of special contracting stipulations and syndicate agreements, the monitoring of investments, multi-staged financing of companies and the integration of portfolio-companies into networks. In addition to the risk management techniques the authors also give the interpretation of the unique attitude of venture capital toward uncertainty and its special real option-like risk valuation approach that makes venture capitalists capable of handling high uncertainty under imperfect information.

Anxiety disorders and depression and risk for drug use disorders across the life course: Sex and ethnic contrasts

The present study examined the linkage between mental (i.e., anxiety disorders and depression) and drug use disorders in a multi-ethnic (i.e., 25% Euro-American, 38% Hispanic/Latino, 33% African American, 4% other) sample of adults (N = 1638, age 18–93 years old). Risk for drug use disorders was examined, while attending to methodological issues of prior research including (1) psychiatric comorbidity, (2) variations in risk associated with sex, ethnicity, and age, and (3) temporal order between mental and drug use disorders. ^ Participants were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI; World Health Organization, 1990). A life history calendar (Freedman et al., 1988) was used to aid the ordering of onsets of all disorders assessed. ^ Preliminary analysis indicated anxiety disorders and depression were significant predictors of drug use disorders, but after controlling for comorbidity and temporal order, anxiety disorders and depression were no longer predictive of drug use disorders. Findings are discussed in terms of their usefulness for prevention and treatment of drug use disorders. ^

Aggression toward homosexuals: Prevalence, correlates, and motives for antigay behaviors among adolescents and young adults

This study examined the motivating factors for perpetrators of antigay harassment and violence among 752 college freshmen. Large numbers of lesbians, gay men and bisexuals (LGB) are victimized solely because of their sexual orientation. The physical and psychological harm suffered by many of these individuals is alarming. In particular, victimization at school is correlated with a variety of other health risks for LGB students. In order for prevention efforts to be effectively tailored, it may be helpful for researchers to first identify what motivates the assailants. This study tested variables capturing demographic, psychosocial, and attitudinal factors. This purposive sample was selected because these students represent the age group most likely to become perpetrators. The findings suggest that harassment of gay people is common and, in many cases, not motivated by particularly negative attitudes toward homosexuals. Instead, LGB individuals may be viewed as a socially acceptable target by others to harass out of boredom, anger at someone else, or in an attempt to assert their own threatened heterosexuality. Social norms, along with the variety and weakness of individual predictors for antigay harassment, further suggest that heterosexism is endemic and pervasive in our society. Physical attacks against homosexuals, although less common, represent a more serious problem for the victims. This study discovered that there were some leading predictors for these assaults, namely, being male, having been maltreated, being a heavy social drinker, and having defensive, antigay attitudes. The implications of these findings and imperatives for social workers are discussed.

Tequila at Sunrise: Spring Break Travel Motivations and Risk Behaviors of American Students in Acapulco, Mexico

Little research has been completed regarding spring break motivations and behaviors of American students in foreign destinations, specifically in Mexico. This paper looks at push and pull motivations in relation to drug and alcohol consumption and findings indicate greater drug and alcohol use among those who selected “party reputation” and “to go wild” as travel motivations. Binge drinking, sexual activity, and drug use among students on spring break in Acapulco, Mexico were also analyzed and compared to past findings within the United States. Results suggest that students are involved in heavy alcohol consumption and significant drug use. Additionally, high rates of sexual activity occur on spring break and results suggest low condom use, placing students at higher risks for the contraction of sexually transmitted infections.

Habitual chocolate consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease among healthy men and women

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