The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Impacts of Temporary and Anticipated Tourism Spending.

Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (i.e. of limited duration) and anticipated (i.e. known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how “pre-shock” and “legacy” effects – impacts before and after the shock – arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.

Social isolation causers mortality by disrupting energy homeostrasis in ants

Social deprivation can have negative effects on the lives of social animals, including humans, yet little is known about the mechanisms by which social withdrawal affects animal health. Here we show that in the carpenter ant Camponotus fellah, socially isolated workers have a greatly reduced life span relative to ants kept in groups of ten individuals. By using a new tracking system, we found that social isolation resulted in important behavioral changes and greatly increased locomotor activity. The higher activity of single ants and their increased propensity to leave the nest to move along the walls suggested that the increased mortality of isolated ants might stem from an imbalance of energy income and expenditure. This view was supported by the finding that while isolated ants ingested the same amount of food as grouped ants, they retained food in the crop, hence preventing its use as an energy source. Moreover, the difference in life span between single and grouped individuals vanished when ants were not fed. This study thus underlines the role of social interactions as key regulators of energy balance, which ultimately affects aging and health in a highly social organism.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

International Aid to Tanzania – with some comparisons from Ghana and Uganda

This paper has three principal objectives. First, to review the level of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Tanzania over the last two to three decades, and to place this into an economic context. This review includes some comparisons with the experience of Ghana and Uganda. Second, to discuss three major issues for the Tanzanian aid: the position of ODA as budget support, corruption, and alignment with the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. Third, to review the literature on the Tanzanian aid experience, including a range of official evaluation reports produced by the Tanzanian government and by the donor community. The conclusions, broadly, are that ODA has been at a sustained high level for most of the period reviewed, funding a significant amount of government development expenditure, and that economic growth has been strong, with poverty reduction ‘flat-lining’ in Tanzania but being significant in Ghana and Uganda. Experience with budget support in Tanzania has been mixed, corruption continues as a major concern, and improvements to public finance management have been difficult to achieve. In this context governance adjustments come slowly, requiring patience on the part of both recipient governments and the ODA donor community.

Effects of a glucose meal on energy metabolism in patients with cirrhosis before and after liver transplantation.

HYPOTHESIS: Liver transplantation results in hepatic denervation. This may produce alterations of liver energy and substrate metabolism, which may contribute to weight gain after liver transplantation. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Liver transplantation clinics in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Seven nondiabetic patients with cirrhosis were recruited while on a waiting list for liver transplantation. Seven healthy subjects were recruited as controls. INTERVENTION: Orthotopic liver transplantation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Evaluation of energy and substrate metabolism after ingestion of a glucose load with indirect calorimetry was performed before, 2 to 6 weeks after, and 5 to 19 months after transplantation. Whole-body glucose oxidation and storage and glucose-induced thermogenesis were calculated. RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis had modestly elevated resting energy expenditure and normal glucose-induced thermogenesis and postprandial glucose oxidation and storage. These measures remained unchanged after liver transplantation despite a significant increase in postprandial glycemia. Patients, however, gained an average of 3 kg of body weight after 5 to 19 months compared with their weight before transplantation. CONCLUSION: Liver denervation secondary to transplantation does not lead to alterations of energy metabolism after ingestion of a glucose load.

Testing, not modelling, the impact of cohesion support: a theoretical framework and some preliminary results for the Spanish regions

This paper develops a simple model that can be used to estimate the effectiveness of Cohesion expenditure relative to similar but unsubsidized projects, thereby making it possible to explicitly test an important assumption that is often implicit in estimates of the impact of Cohesion policies. Some preliminary results are reported for the case of infrastructure investment in the Spanish regions.

The Role of supply constraints in multiplier analysis

Multiplier analysis based upon the information contained in Leontief's inverse is undoubtedly part of the core of the input-output methodology and numerous applications an extensions have been developed that exploit its informational content. Nonetheless there are some implicit theoretical assumptions whose implications have perhaps not been fully assessed. This is the case of the 'excess capacity' assumption. Because of this assumption resources are available as needed to adjust production to new equilibrium states. In real world applications, however, new resources are scarce and costly. Supply constraints kick in and hence resource allocation needs to take them into account to really assess the effect of government policies. Using a closed general equilibrium model that incorporates supply constraints, we perform some simple numerical exercises and proceed to derive a 'constrained' multiplier matrix that can be compared with the standard 'unrestricted' multiplier matrix. Results show that the effectiveness of expenditure policies hinges critically on whether or not supply constraints are considered.

Failure of dietary fat intake to promote fat oxidation: a factor favoring the development of obesity.

Seven young men spent three nights and 2 d in a respiration chamber where their rates of energy expenditure and substrate oxidation were continuously measured by indirect calorimetry. During the first 24 h they ingested a mixed maintenance diet containing 35% of calories as fat. An additional amount of 106 +/- 6 g fat/24 h (means +/- SD) was added to this diet during the following 36 h. The fat supplement (987 +/- 55 kcal/d) did not alter 24-h energy expenditure (2783 +/- 232 vs 2820 +/- 284 kcal/d) and failed to promote the use of fat as a metabolic fuel (fat oxidation 1032 +/- 205 vs 1042 +/- 205 kcal/d). The overall energy balance was closely correlated with the fat balance (r = 0.96, p less than 0.001) but not with the carbohydrate balance (r = -0.12, NS). These data indicate that substantial imbalances between intake and oxidation are much more likely for fat than for carbohydrate.

EU cohesion aid to Spain: a data set. Part I: 2000-06 planning period

In this paper we construct a data set on EU cohesion aid to Spain during the planning period 2000-06. The data are disaggregated by region, year and function and attempt to approximate the timing of actual executed expenditure on assisted projects.

Desenvolupament d’un pla operatiu per a la gestió del medicament en els centres penitenciaris

Les drogodependències, la infecció pel VIH-VHC i la tuberculosi, entre d’altres patologies, incideixen actualment de manera molt important en els centres penitenciaris, de manera que han canviat radicalment la sanitat en aquestes institucions en les darreres dues dècades. Les necessitats terapèutiques són diferents i la utilització de fàrmacs a les presons s’ha convertit en més complexa. La població penitenciària ha crescut en els darrers cinc anys més d’un 36% i, d’aquesta manera, ha augmentat la demanda assistencial i en conseqüència la prescripció farmacèutica, amb una corresponent pujada de la despesa en medicaments. Segons la legislació penitenciària general, l’Administració Penitenciària és responsable del control de les malalties transmissibles a les presons, en col·laboració amb l’Administració Sanitària. La gestió dels medicaments, per ser eficaç, ha d’incidir en una sèrie d’elements, com ara la selecció dels medicaments, l’adquisició, la distribució, la dispensació i l’administració, entre d’altres. Els medicaments utilitzats per al tractament de patologies del sistema nerviós són els productes més consumits en el CPHB, amb una major quantitat d’unitats dispensades. Alhora, la despesa d’aquests medicaments suposa aproximadament la meitat de la factura total. La diferència de preus entre especialitats farmacèutiques genèriques i especialitats farmacèutiques de marca evidencia de manera teòrica que la utilització de genèrics pot reduir la despesa total farmacèutica. Els estudis de selecció, adquisició i control de medicaments a centres penitenciaris per part de professionals sanitaris són eines fonamentals i necessàries per a la millora en l’ús de fàrmacs.

Lack of metabolic and behavioral adaptations in rural Gambian men with low body mass index.

Energy expenditure was measured by means of a respiratory chamber in two groups of adult rural Gambian men. The first group (n = 29) had a low body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) < 18.5), whereas the control group (n = 29) had a higher BMI (> 22). This study shows that the energy expenditure of Gambian men with low BMI is not different from that of Gambian men with normal BMI when the results are normalized for fat-free mass or for weight by analysis of covariance. In Gambian men the nutritional status thus does not seem to affect energy metabolism notably. No differences in respiratory quotient, diet-induced thermogenesis, net work efficiency, spontaneous physical activity, heart rate, or urinary catecholamine excretion were observed between the two groups. It is, however, interesting to note that the basal metabolic rate of Gambian men, regardless of their nutritional status, is approximately 10% (range 4-12% depending on the reference value used) lower than that predicted for individuals living in industrialized countries.

Effect of diets high or low in unavailable and slowly digestible carbohydrates on the pattern of 24-h substrate oxidation and feelings of hunger in humans.

BACKGROUND: The pattern of substrate utilization with diets containing a high or a low proportion of unavailable and slowly digestible carbohydrates may constitute an important factor in the control, time course, and onset of hunger in humans. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that isoenergetic diets differing only in their content of unavailable carbohydrates would result in different time courses of total, endogenous, and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation rates. DESIGN: Two diets with either a high (H diet) or a low (L diet) content of unavailable carbohydrates were fed to 14 healthy subjects studied during two 24-h periods in a metabolic chamber. Substrate utilization was assessed by whole-body indirect calorimetry. In a subgroup of 8 subjects, endogenous and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation were assessed by prelabeling the body glycogen stores with [(13)C]carbohydrate. Subjective feelings of hunger were estimated with use of visual analogue scales. RESULTS: Total energy expenditure and substrate oxidation did not differ significantly between the 2 diets. However, there was a significant effect of diet (P: = 0.03) on the carbohydrate oxidation pattern: the H diet elicited a lower and delayed rise of postprandial carbohydrate oxidation and was associated with lower hunger feelings than was the L diet. The differences in hunger scores between the 2 diets were significantly associated with the differences in the pattern of carbohydrate oxidation among diets (r = -0.67, P: = 0. 006). Exogenous and endogenous carbohydrate oxidation were not significantly influenced by diet. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of carbohydrate utilization is involved in the modulation of hunger feelings. The greater suppression of hunger after the H diet than after the L diet may be helpful, at least over the short term, in individuals attempting to better control their food intake.

Nutrition dans la bronchopneumopathie chronique obstructive [Nutrition in chronic obstructive bronchopneumopathy]

The respiratory system and nutrition are linked. Obesity is sometimes seen in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its prevalence, the morbidity and mortality induced by it are not known. In addition, the prevalence of malnutrition is high in COPD and the more severe the COPD is, the higher percentage of malnutrition is present. Emphysematous patients are more frequently undernourished than those suffering from chronic bronchitis. Malnutrition is the consequence of the hypermetabolism induced by the higher cost of breathing in emphysema. The survival rate of these patients is negatively affected by malnutrition. A careful assessment of nutritional status must be performed in all COPD patients, especially during an episode of acute respiratory failure. When signs of malnutrition are present, a nutritional intervention should be initiated rapidly. An amount of calories sufficient to meet the energy expenditure increased by the disease must be given. Excessive intake may overstress the respiratory system whose functional reserve is limited in COPD. The diet must include a well balanced percentage of fat, carbohydrates and proteins. Preservation of the fat-free mass is the minimum goal to reach in acute respiratory failure. After the resolution of the acute phase, a gain of weight should be attempted within a rehabilitation program.

How does a hilly urban environment influence daily physical activity in obese individuals?

Background: Increases in physical activity (PA) are promoted by walking in an outdoor environment. Along with walking speed, slope is a major determinant of exercise intensity, and energy expenditure. The hypothesis was that in free-living conditions, a hilly environment diminishes PA to a greater extent in obese (OB) when compared with control (CO) individuals. Methods: To assess PA types and patterns, 28 CO (22 ± 2 kg/m2) and 14 OB (33 ± 4 kg/m2) individuals wore during an entire day 2 accelerometers and 1 GPS device, around respectively their waist, ankle and shoulder. They performed their usual PA and were asked to walk an additional 60 min per day. Results: The duration of inactivity and activity with OB individuals tended to be, respectively, higher and lower than that of CO individuals (P = .06). Both groups spent less time walking uphill/downhill than on the level (20%, 19%, vs. 61% of total walking duration, respectively, P < .001). However OB individuals spent less time walking uphill/downhill per day than CO (25 ± 15 and 38 ± 15 min/d, respectively, P < 0.05) and covered a shorter distance per day (3.8 km vs 5.2 km, P < 0.01). Conclusions: BMI and outdoor topography should also be considered when prescribing extra walking in free-living conditions.