Can genetic algorithms explain experimental anomalies? An application to common property resources

It is common to find in experimental data persistent oscillations in the aggregate outcomes and high levels of heterogeneity in individual behavior. Furthermore, it is not unusual to find significant deviations from aggregate Nash equilibrium predictions. In this paper, we employ an evolutionary model with boundedly rational agents to explain these findings. We use data from common property resource experiments (Casari and Plott, 2003). Instead of positing individual-specific utility functions, we model decision makers as selfish and identical. Agent interaction is simulated using an individual learning genetic algorithm, where agents have constraints in their working memory, a limited ability to maximize, and experiment with new strategies. We show that the model replicates most of the patterns that can be found in common property resource experiments.

Can competition in the credit market be excessive?

We study how market power affects investment and welfare when banks choose between restricting loan sizes and monitoring, in order to alleviate an underlying moral hazard problem. The impact of market power on aggregate welfare is the result of two countervailing effects. An increase in banks' market power results in: (i) higher lending rates, which worsens the borrower's incentive problem and reduces investment by unmonitored firms, (ii) higher monitoring effort, which reduces the proportion of credit-constrained firms. Whenever the second effect dominates, it is optimal to provide banks with some degree of market power.

Seguimiento de evaluación de los impactos del ecoturismo en la comunidad de Santa Marianita (Ecuador)

L’ecoturisme és una nova modalitat turística que es produeix a les àrees naturals protegides de tot el món. Equador és un país amb una elevada biodiversitat i, per aquest motiu, aquesta activitat ha augmentat de forma important. Aquest tipus de turisme es basa en uns principis respectuosos amb el medi ambient i segueix criteris de sostenibilitat. Tot i així, una mala planificació pot tenir greus repercussions y més tractant-se duna activitat tan relacionada amb el medi. Per tractar de controlar i mitigar els possibles impactes negatius que es produeixin es necessita realitzar avaluacions continuades. Aquest és l’objectiu final d’aquest projecte, dut a terme a la Reserva Maquipucuna. Va ser aquí on es van desenvolupar enquestes a la comunitat de Santa Marianita –ubicada a l’entrada de la Reserva on la Fundació Maquipucuna ofereix ecoturisme-. Arrel del treball de camp i dels resultats obtinguts es va poder constatar que, la situació de la comunitat, comparada amb un estudi anterior similar, no presenta problemes greus però sí que es poden millorar alguns aspectes. Per tal finalitat es van realitzar dues propostes consensuades entre els dos actors interventors –comunitat i Fundació- i altres recomanacions. Amb això es preveu millorar la situació però, igualment, es precisa seguir amb les avaluacions periòdiques.

Cultured human fetal astrocytes can be induced by interferon-gamma to express HLA-DR.

Interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) modulates the expression of Class II major histocompatibility antigens (MHC), thus providing a potential regulatory mechanism for local immune reactivity in the context of MHC-restricted antigen presentation. Within the central nervous system (CNS), the expression of MHC Class II antigens has been demonstrated on human reactive astrocytes and glioma cells. In order to investigate the modulation of HLA-DR on normal astrocytes, two cell lines were grown from a 20-week-old fetal brain. In situ none of the fetal brain cells expressed HLA-DR as determined by immunohistology on frozen tissue sections. The two cell lines, FB I and FB II, expressed GFAP indicating their astrocytic origin. FB I was HLA-DR negative at the first tissue culture passages, but could be induced to express HLA-DR when treated with 500 U/ml IFN-gamma. FB II was spontaneously HLA-DR positive in the early passages, lost the expression of this antigen after 11 passages and could also be induced to express HLA-DR by IFN-gamma. The induction of HLA-DR expression was demonstrated both by a binding RIA and by immunoprecipitation using a monoclonal antibody (MAB) directed against a monomorphic determinant of HLA-DR. The HLA-DR alloantigens were determined on FB II cells after IFN-gamma treatment, by immunofluorescence and by cytotoxicity assays, and were shown to be DR4, DR6, Drw52, DRw53 and DQwl. These results show that human fetal astrocytes can be induced to express HLA-DR by IFN-gamma in vitro and support the concept that astrocytes may function as antigen-presenting cells.

Transformación de los roles de las mujeres colonas y cambio socioambiental : el caso de la penetración de la minería transnacional en un agroecosistema de la comunidad de Junín, Ecuador

Este artículo trata de analizar el rol de las mujeres en una comunidad campesina de la Sierra norte del Ecuador, en función de las transformaciones socioambientales sufridas en base a dos procesos que se están dando hoy en día en el panorama local de Junín. Se trata por un lado de la tendencia de la comunidad hacia un modelo agroindustrial, y por el otro del conflicto socioambiental minero, latente desde hace poco más de una década en la realidad de la comunidad. Ambos procesos se encuentran fuertemente vinculados e influyen de manera directa sobre las estrategias de vida de la comunidad, puesto que ambos acaban transformando, debido a la aparición de nuevas actividades productivas, el uso que se hace de los recursos, de esta manera se observa una evolución del agroecosistema que conforma la comunidad de Junín. La discusión del presente estudio gira entorno a las repercusiones que estos dos procesos han tenido entorno al rol de la mujer, es decir se pretende estudiar un cambio social relacionado con el rol de la mujer en la comunidad, mediante un cambio ambiental que se ha dado entorno a estos dos procesos. De esta manera se ha observado que el conflicto minero ha sido el punto de partida que ha hecho salir a la mujer a la esfera pública, sobretodo por las alternativas productivas que ha creado, concretamente el ecoturismo por medio del cual la mujer ha pasado a realizar actividades productivas. Por otra parte, la modernización agrícola ha dejado patente la relación existente entre la mujer y la unidad doméstica. Esta tendencia hacia el modelo agroindustrial ha hecho desplazar a los hombres de la comunidad a realizar actividades agrícolas relacionadas con la comercialización, mientras que la mujer se ha mantenido en el sector de la agricultura de subsistencia.

Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope composition of waters from mine tailings in different climatic environments

The stable isotope composition of waters (delta H-2, delta O-18) can be used as a natural tracer of hydrologic processes in systems affected by acid mine drainage. We investigated the delta H-2 and delta O-18 values of pore waters from four oxidizing sulfidic mine tailings impoundments in different climatic regions of Chile (Piuquenes at La Andina with Alpine climate, Cauquenes and Caren at El Teniente with Mediterranean climate, and Talabre at the Chuquicamata deposit with hyperarid climate). No clear relationship was found between altitude and isotopic composition. The observed displacement of the tailings pore waters from the local meteoric water line toward higher delta O-18 values (by similar to +2% delta O-18 relative to delta H-2) is partly due to water-rock interaction processes, including hydration and O-isotope exchange with sulfates and Fe(III) oxyhydroxides produced by pyrite oxidation. In most tailings, from the saturated zone toward the surface, isotopically different zones can be distinguished. Zone I is characterized by an upward depletion of H-2 and O-18 in the pore waters from the saturated zone and the lowermost vadose zone, due to ascending diffused isotopically light water triggered by the constant loss of water vapor by evaporation at the surface. In zone II, the capillary flow of a mix of vapor and liquid water causes an evaporative isotopic enrichment in H-2 and O-18. At the top of the tailings in dry climate a zone III between the capillary zone and the surface contains isotopically light diffused and atmospheric water vapor. In temperate climates, the upper part of the profile is affected by recent rainfall and zone III may not differ isotopically from zone II.

Mutations in NR2E3 can cause dominant or recessive retinal degenerations in the same family.

NR2E3, a photoreceptor-specific nuclear receptor (PNR), represses cone-specific genes and activates several rod-specific genes. In humans, mutations in NR2E3 have been associated with the recessively-inherited enhanced short-wavelength sensitive S-cone syndrome (ESCS) and, recently, with autosomal dominant (ad) retinitis pigmentosa (RP) (adRP). In the present work, we describe two additional families affected by adRP that carry a heterozygous c.166G>A (p.G56R) mutation in the NR2E3 gene. Functional analysis determined the dominant negative activity of the p.G56R mutant protein as the molecular mechanism of adRP. Interestingly, in one pedigree, the most common causal variant for ESCS (p.R311Q) cosegregated with the adRP-linked p.G56R mutation, and the compound heterozygotes exhibited an ESCS-like phenotype, which in 1 of the 2 cases was strikingly "milder" than the patients carrying the p.G56R mutation alone. Impaired repression of cone-specific genes by the corepressors atrophin-1 (dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy [DRPLA] gene product) and atrophin-2 (arginine-glutamic acid dipeptide repeat [RERE] protein) appeared to be a molecular mechanism mediating the beneficial effect of the p.R311Q mutation. Finally, the functional dominance of the p.R311Q variant to the p.G56R mutation is discussed.

Can a targeted psychological intervention be effective for young people following a first manic episode? Results from an 18-month pilot study.

Aim: There is a scarce literature describing psychological interventions for a young, first-episode cohort who have experienced psychotic mania. This study aimed to assess whether a manualized psychological intervention could be effective in reducing symptomatology and relapse, and improve functional outcome in this population. Methods: The study was an open-label design, drawn from a larger pharmacotherapy trial. All participants in the pharmacotherapy trial were offered a manualized psychological intervention in addition to case management. Inclusion in the psychotherapy group was based on participant's choice, and on completion of four or more of the eight modules offered. All clinical files were audited to ensure accuracy of group allocation. Forty young people aged 15 to 25 years old who had experienced a manic episode with psychotic features were recruited into the study, with 20 people in the combined treatment as usual plus psychotherapy group (P+TAU), and an equal number of matched control participants who received treatment as usual (TAU) within the same service. All participants were prescribed antipsychotic and mood-stabilizing medication. Symptomatic, functional and relapse measures were taken both at baseline and at 18-month follow-up. Results: Manic symptoms improved significantly for both groups, with no differences between groups. Depression scores and overall symptom severity were significantly lower in the P + TAU group. No differences were evident between groups with regard to numbers or type of relapse. The P + TAU group had significantly better social and occupational functioning after 18 months. Conclusion: This study suggests that a manualized psychological intervention targeted to a first-episode population can be effective in reducing depression and overall symptom severity, and can improve functional outcome following a first episode of psychotic mania.

Can Migrants save Greece from Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach using G-AMOS.

The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the GAMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.