924 resultados para Building Simulation, Future Weather Data, Global Warming


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Resumen Este artículo procura establecer algunas de las múltiples interacciones posibles, entre la evolución de las precipitaciones, como uno de los factores climáticos de mayor incidencia histórica en las sociedades humanas, y la dinámica económica y socioambiental de Costa Rica, en un período en el que, al tiempo que se consolidaba como Estado-Nación y se definía de forma definitiva su rol agroexportador en el mercado mundial, se construían nuevas relaciones con el medio biofísico, guiadas por la dominante e incuestionable ideología del ?progreso?. Además de la dimensión objetiva del impacto de las lluvias, el trabajo procura realizar un breve repaso por las representaciones dominantes de este factor climático, frecuentemente dicotómicas y a la vez ambivalentes, como lo deja entrever el carácter ?bondadoso? o ?malsano? que a las lluvias y sus consecuencias, otorgaron diversos sujetos histórico-sociales. Abstract This papers analyses the relationship between the evolution of rainfalls and economic and socioenvironmental dynamism in Costa Rica in a period of State-building process, the consolidation of global economic exchange, and the definition of new relations with the environment, all guided by the ?progress? ideology. Besides analyzing the real impact of rainfall, this essay studies the major social representations of rainfall and its characterization by a diversity of historical subjects.

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Considering the wide implications of global warming it is evident the need, not only of diminishing the energy consumption patterns, but of diversifying to “sustainable” energy resources. Moreover, within the frame of national security, this requires tore-think the managing and use of available resources, because any change of the energy paradigm will depend, at least at the beginning, on fossil energy.Considering the above, the following paper opens a discussion about energy, entropy and the limits of economic growth, following the premises of the school of ecological economics. It offers several empirical data about the situation of the current energy pattern, mostly about its socio-environmental aspects. The paper ends discussing the characteristics and limitations of the main available alternative energies; meanwhile it highlights the relevance of contemporary patterns of territorial organization. It concludes pointing out the inherent need of diminishing the type and rhythm of current energy consumption.

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Aims: With this research, we wanted to investigate and promote the conservation of biodiversity in the network of drainage canals of the Po Valley Study area: The canal network of Bologna plain, long more than 1150 km (Po Valley, North Italy) Methods: In Chapter II we analyzed the geographical patterns that characterize our transects, the land use of their upstream basins, the water quality at the closure points of their river basins. In Chapter III we described the plant communities with some ecological information and we also tested the effect of the canal size on the plant communities. In Chapter IV we described the relation beetween some functional traits of the plant species sampled and some environmental parameters Results: A total of 272 species were sampled in 118 transects. The plant communities of the drainage canals have been found to have a significant influence: the geographical pattern "proximity to protected areas", the class of land use "agrozootechnical settlements", and some water parameters. The analysis of the parameter "canal depth" indicated a significant distinction between small and large canals based on plant communities. The functional composition of the plant communities was affected by the bank aspect, the inclusion/exclusion from the protected areas and the upstream basin land uses. Moreover, the functional groups of species responded differently to environmental drivers, water quality gradients and were influenced by a combination of environmental stresses Conclusions: This research confirms the key role of the canals network in sustaining the plant richness in oversimplified landscapes. Considering the fragility of the floodplains and the global warming that is taking place, it is necessary to rethink the role of irrigation canals and their plant communities in the near future. This work reinforces the belief that long-term sampling plans and greater knowledge about canal management practices are needed

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In this Thesis, we analyze how climate risk impacts economic players and its consequences on the financial markets. Essentially, literature unravels two main channels through which climate change poses risks to the status quo, namely physical and transitional risk, that we cover in three works. Firstly, the call for a global shift to a net-zero economy implicitly devalues assets that contribute to global warming that regulators are forcing to dismiss. On the other hand, abnormal changes in the temperatures as well as weather-related events challenge the environmental equilibrium and could directly affect operations as well as profitability. We start the analysis with the physical component, by presenting a statistical measure that generally represents shocks to the distribution of temperature anomalies. We oppose this statistic to classical physical measures and assess that it is the driver of the electricity consumption, in the weather derivatives market, and in the cross-section of equity returns. We find two transmission channels, namely investor attention, and firm operations. We then analyze the transition risk component, by associating a regulatory horizon characterization to fixed income valuation. We disentangle a risk driver for corporate bond overperformance that is tight to change in credit riskiness. After controlling a statistical learning algorithm to forecast excess returns, we include carbon emission metrics without clear evidence. Finally, we analyze the effects of change in carbon emission on a regulated market such as the EU ETS by selecting utility sector corporate bond and, after controlling for the possible risk factor, we document how a firm’s carbon profile differently affects the term structure of credit riskiness.

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This thesis analyzes an analysis of the risk perception of Italian paediatricians and parents regarding the impact of climate change on pediatric health. The consequences of climate change are now before our eyes; the recent pandemic has highlighted the impact that the destruction of ecosystems and global warming can have on our health. Fragile subjects will pay the most for the consequences of this crisis: children, the elderly, pregnant women. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 88% of the disease burden linked to climate change falls on children under the age of 5. Climate change poses a challenge of equity not only between different areas of the world but also between generations: the worst consequences will weigh on those who have not caused damage to the ecosystem. This study began by studying the risk perceptions of the two main caregivers who deal with the child's health: parents and paediatricians. The study analyzed a mixed methods approach, exploiting quantitative and qualitative approaches. Two surveys were carried out in collaboration with the Italian Society of Pediatrics (SIP) and AGE, the Italian Parents' Association, using a tool already consolidated in the literature and adapted according to the needs of the thesis. Sixty semi-structured interviews were then conducted with pediatricians of different age groups and different regions of Italy. The collected data were then compared with the literature on the subject, in order to understand differences and similarities. This work is part of a still rather scarce, but growing, field of literature and represents the first study of this type in Italy.

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Nowadays the urgency to address climate change and global warming is growing rapidly: the industry and the energy sector must be decarbonized. Hydrogen can play a key role in the energy transition: it is expected to progressively replace fossil fuels, penetrating economies and gaining interest from the public. However, this new possible energy scenario requires further investigation on safety aspects, which currently represent a challenge. The present study aims at making a little contribution to this field. The focus is on the analysis and modeling of hazardous scenarios concerning liquid hydrogen. The investigation of BLEVEs (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) consequences lies at the core of this research: among various consequences (overpressure, radiation), the interest is on the generation and projection of fragments. The goal is to investigate whether the models developed for conventional fuels and tanks give good predictions also when handling hydrogen. The experimental data from the SH2IFT - Safe Hydrogen Fuel Handling and Use for Efficient Implementation project are used to validate those models. This project’s objective was to increase competence within safety of hydrogen technology, especially focusing on consequences of handling large amounts of this substance.

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This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

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Conforme previsões do último relatório do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change) em 2007, até meados deste século haverá um aumento na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera podendo chegar a 720 μmol mol-1. Consequentemente haverá uma elevação da temperatura de até +3 °C, o que ocorrerá em conjunto com mudanças no padrão de precipitação. O mesmo relatório sugere que isto poderá acarretar uma substituição gradual da floresta tropical por vegetação similar a uma savana na parte oriental da Amazônia, porém nada é conclusivo. Diante dessas possibilidades, pergunta-se - Como as espécies de árvores que compõem as regiões de alagamento da Amazônia irão responder às alterações climáticas por vir? Apesar dessas previsões serem pessimistas, o alagamento ainda ocorrerá por vários anos na Amazônia e é de grande importância compreender os efeitos do alagamento sobre as respostas fisiológicas das plantas num contexto das mudanças climáticas. Os principais efeitos sobre a sinalização metabólica e hormonal durante o alagamento são revisados e os possíveis efeitos que as mudanças climáticas poderão ter sobre as plantas amazônicas são discutidos. As informações existentes sugerem que sob alagamento, as plantas tendem a mobilizar reservas para suprir a demanda de carbono necessário para a manutenção do metabolismo sob o estresse da falta de oxigênio. Até certo limite, com o aumento da concentração de CO2, as plantas tendem a fazer mais fotossíntese e a produzir mais biomassa, que poderão aumentar ainda mais com um acréscimo de temperatura de até 3 °C. Alternativamente, com o alagamento, há uma diminuição geral do potencial de crescimento e é possível que quando em condições de CO2 e temperatura elevados os efeitos positivo e negativo se somem. Com isso, as respostas fisiológicas poderão ser amenizadas ou, ainda, promover maior crescimento para a maioria das espécies de regiões alagáveis até o meio do século. Porém, quando a temperatura e o CO2 atingirem valores acima dos ótimos para a maioria das plantas, estas possivelmente diminuirão a atividade fisiológica.

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São problemas de ordem ambiental: aquecimento global, mudanças climáticas, escassez de recursos naturais, resíduo. Em resposta, têm sido gerados novos saberes no campo da ciência, tecnologia e educação chamada ambiental de modo a se proporem alternativas para que o homem possa relacionar-se com o ambiente de maneira sustentável, e a mídia tem contribuído sobremaneira na veiculação desses conhecimentos. Na imprensa escrita, revistas e jornais têm criado seções, suplementos, cadernos tematizando educação e meio ambiente. Produzida pela revista Carta Capital, desde 2006, a revista Carta na Escola busca difundir "atualidades em sala de aula", e de setembro de 2007 a agosto de 2008 publicou a série "Sustentabilidade na Escola", com dez artigos relacionando sustentabilidade, ciência e educação. A partir do referencial teórico-metodológico da análise dialógica do discurso, este artigo analisa o discurso da sustentabilidade baseado na difusão de conhecimentos científicos, proposto nessa série, e sua limitação enquanto estratégia de educação ambiental.

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The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural frontiers in the world. The authors assess changes in cropland area and the intensification of cropping in the Brazilian agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso using remote sensing and develop a greenhouse gas emissions budget. The most common type of intensification in this region is a shift from single-to double-cropping patterns and associated changes in management, including increased fertilization. Using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, the authors created a green-leaf phenology for 2001-06 that was temporally smoothed with a wavelet filter. The wavelet-smoothed green-leaf phenology was analyzed to detect cropland areas and their cropping patterns. The authors document cropland extensification and double-cropping intensification validated with field data with 85% accuracy for detecting croplands and 64% and 89% accuracy for detecting single-and double-cropping patterns, respectively. The results show that croplands more than doubled from 2001 to 2006 to cover about 100 000 km(2) and that new double-cropping intensification occurred on over 20% of croplands. Variations are seen in the annual rates of extensification and double-cropping intensification. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for the period 2001-06 due to conversion of natural vegetation and pastures to row-crop agriculture in Mato Grosso averaged 179 Tg CO(2)-e yr(-1),over half the typical fossil fuel emissions for the country in recent years.

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Estimates of greenhouse-gas emissions from deforestation are highly uncertain because of high variability in key parameters and because of the limited number of studies providing field measurements of these parameters. One such parameter is burning efficiency, which determines how much of the original forest`s aboveground carbon stock will be released in the burn, as well as how much will later be released by decay and how much will remain as charcoal. In this paper we examined the fate of biomass from a semideciduous tropical forest in the ""arc of deforestation,"" where clearing activity is concentrated along the southern edge of the Amazon forest. We estimated carbon content, charcoal formation and burning efficiency by direct measurements (cutting and weighing) and by line-intersect sampling (LIS) done along the axis of each plot before and after burning of felled vegetation. The total aboveground dry biomass found here (219.3 Mg ha(-1)) is lower than the values found in studies that have been done in other parts of the Amazon region. Values for burning efficiency (65%) and charcoal formation (6.0%, or 5.98 Mg C ha(-1)) were much higher than those found in past studies in tropical areas. The percentage of trunk biomass lost in burning (49%) was substantially higher than has been found in previous studies. This difference may be explained by the concentration of more stems in the smaller diameter classes and the low humidity of the fuel (the dry season was unusually long in 2007, the year of the burn). This study provides the first measurements of forest burning parameters for a group of forest types that is now undergoing rapid deforestation. The burning parameters estimated here indicate substantially higher burning efficiency than has been found in other Amazonian forest types. Quantification of burning efficiency is critical to estimates of trace-gas emissions from deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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It has been shown that cover crops can enhance soil nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions, but the magnitude of increase depends on the quantity and quality of the crop residues. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the effect of long-term (19 and 21 years) no-till maize crop rotations including grass [black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb)] and legume cover crops [vetch (Vigna sativa L), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp), pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L. Millsp.) and lablab (Dolichos lablab)] on annual soil N(2)O emissions in a subtropical Acrisol in Southern Brazil. Greater soil N(2)O emissions were observed in the first 45 days after the cover crop residue management in all crop rotations, varying from -20.2 +/- 1.9 to 163.9 +/- 24.3 mu g N m(-2) h(-1). Legume-based crop rotations had the largest cumulative emissions in this period, which were directly related to the quantity of N (r(2) = 0.60, p = 0.13)and inversely related to the lignin:N ratio(r(2) = 0.89,p = 0.01) of the cover crop residues. After this period, the mean fluxes were smaller and were closely related to the total soil N stocks (r(2) = 0.96, p = 0.002). The annual soil N(2)O emission represented 0.39-0.75% of the total N added by the legume cover crops. Management-control led soil variables such as mineral N (NO(3)(-) and NH(4)(+)) and dissolved organic C influenced more the N(2)O fluxes than environmental-related variables as water-filled pore space and air and soil temperature. Consequently, the synchronization between N mineralization and N uptake by plants seems to be the main challenge to reduce N(2)O emissions while maintaining the environmental and agronomic services provided by legume cover crops in agricultural systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Mine simulation depends on data that is both coherent and representative of the mining operation. This paper describes a methodology for modeling operational data which has been developed for mine simulation. The methodology has been applied to a case study of an open-pit mine, where the cycle times of the truck fleet have been modeled for mine simulation purposes. The results obtained have shown that once the operational data has been treated using the proposed methodology, the system variables have proven to be adherent to theoretical distributions. The research indicated the need jar tracking the origin of data inconsistencies through the development of a process to manage inconsistent data from the mining operation.

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Oropouche (OROV) is a single-stranded RNA arbovirus of the family Bunyaviridae, genus Orthobunyavirus, which has caused over half a million cases of febrile illness in Brazil in the past 30 years. OROV fever has been registered almost exclusively in the Amazon region, but global warming, deforestation and redistribution of vectors and animal reservoirs increases the risk of Oropouche virus emergence in other areas. OROV causes a cytolytical infection in cultured cells with characteristic cytopathic effect 48 h post-infection. We have studied the mechanisms of apoptosis induced by OROV in HeLa cells and found that OROV causes DNA fragmentation detectable by gel electrophoresis and by flow cytometric analysis of the Sub-G1 population at 36 h post-infection. Mitochondrial release of cytochrome C and activation of caspases 9 and 3 were also detected by western blot analysis. Lack of apoptosis induced by UV-inactivated OROV reveals that virus-receptor binding is not sufficient to induce cell death. Results obtained in cells treated with chloroquine and cycloheximide indicated that viral uncoating and replication are required for apoptosis induction by OROV. Furthermore, treatment of the cells with pan-caspase inhibitor prevented OROV-induced apoptosis without affecting virus progeny production. The results show that OROV infection in vitro causes apoptosis by an intracellular pathway involving mitochondria, and activated by a mechanism dependent on viral replication and protein synthesis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.