Unpacking black boxes: Mechanisms and theory building in evaluation

There is growing interest in the concept of ‘‘mechanism’’ across many areas of the social sciences. In the field of program and policy evaluation, a number of scholars have also emphasized the importance of causal mechanisms for explaining how and why programs work. However, there appears to be some ambiguity about the meaning and uses of mechanism-based thinking in both the social science and evaluation literature. In this article we attempt to clarify what is meant by mechanisms in the context of program evaluation by identifying three main characteristics of mechanisms and outlining a possible typology of mechanisms. A number of theoretical and practical implications for evaluators are also discussed, along with some precautions to consider when investigating mechanisms that might plausibly account for program outcomes.

Process black

Process Black was one of 95 posters from the Mandela Poster Project. The exhibition, hosted by the 2014 Melbourne Design Festival. Kelo Kubu from South Africa, a founder of the Mandela Poster Collective launched the exhibition at the Victoria Art Centre garden. She also presented the presented the Mandela Poster Project at the AGIdeas conference during the Melbourne Design Festival.

The relationship between carbon stable isotope ratios of hatchling down and egg yolk in Black-headed Gulls

We reconstructed the nutrient source for egg synthesis by sampling Black-headed Gull (Larus ridibundus) eggs for yolk, analyzing their carbon stable isotope ratio, and comparing that to hatchling down. Most of the variation in carbon stable isotope ratio was explained by differences between nests, the within-nest variation being explained by laying order. These data indicate significant differences in diet choice between individual females and changes in food choice or body-store dynamics during egg laying. Among-egg variation in the carbon stable isotope ratios of the yolk were closely reflected in the hatchling down, on average down being enriched by 3.1‰ δ13C relative to yolk. Our findings support the contention that pre-laying female diets can be evaluated from hatchling down.

Coal - the black gold of economic growth in China: empirical evidence and the role of cleaner coal technologies in recent time

Coal comprises 70 per cent of China’s primary energy source and 80 per cent of China's electricity generation. This study investigates the long-run relationship between coal consumption-economic growth nexus considering both supply and demand side models in a multivariate framework over the period of 1978 and 2010. Our innovation in this paper is to include a coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator into the economic growth model ; and trade exposure in coal demand. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, we find improvement in coal-to-efficiency indicator causes almost 35 per cent increase in real GDP in the long-run. The Toda-Yamamoto approach of causality test indicates unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth; feedback effect both for coal-to-electricity efficiency indicator to economic growth and openness to coal consumption. For robustness check, using the generalised forecast error variance decomposition method we forecast the validity of causal relationships beyond the sample horizon. The paper suggests the role of advanced coal technologies will play a significant role along with other environmental and energy policies in maintaining sustainable economic growth in China .

Cost and outcomes associated with participating in the community fireguard program: experiences from the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, Australia

There is increasing recognition of the importance of shared responsibility between community and government in supporting community preparedness in disaster risk reduction programs. However, there is limited evidence to support decision making about how best to allocate resources. This paper presents an economic analysis of the Community Fireguard Program coordinated by the Country Fire Authority in Victoria, Australia. The economic analysis evaluates the costs and benefits of the Community Fireguard program (estimated in 2012 Australian dollars) to determine the efficiency of the program in terms of its outcomes of loss of life and property loss in the event of a bushfire. We take a societal perspective, including all costs and benefits regardless of who bears the costs, who receives the benefits or who provides the resources. The analysis uses data from a previous review of the program and estimates of costs and benefits over ten years, assuming each region faces a 10-year risk of major bushfire and the CFG group learnings would last ten years. Totalled over ten years, the cost per Fireguard Group for the program is $10,884, with a range of $2697-$19,071, and in the event of a major bushfire the predicted savings from reduced property loss is $732,747 and from reduced fatality $1.4 million. Even if the risk of major bushfire event in a region were one in 100 years, the estimated cost savings in a 100-year period is $217,116 per group. The value of the psychosocial impacts was not calculated, as quantitative data are currently not available.

Effects of visual contact with zoo visitors on black-capped capuchin welfare

Previous research has suggested that the presence of zoo visitors may be stressful for various primate species, and visual contact with visitors may be the sensory stimuli that mediate visitor effects. We studied a group of black-capped capuchins, Cebus apella, in a controlled experiment, randomly imposing two treatments: customised one-way vision screens on the exhibit viewing windows to reduce visual contact with visitors; and unmodified viewing windows that allow full visual contact with visitors. We sampled capuchin behaviour including intra-group aggression and other social interactions, vigilance and abnormal behaviours. To provide a measure of physiological stress, we also analysed capuchin faecal samples for glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentration. When the view of visitors was obscured, we found marked reductions in capuchin aggression (from 14.5 bouts to 4.6 bouts per weekend, P= 0.004) and FGM concentration (from 620 to 410. ng/g, P= 0.008) among all adults, as well as reductions in abnormal behaviour (P = 0.01) in two individuals. The capuchins also avoided the visitor viewing area (P = 0.003) in the unmodified viewing window treatment. These results suggest that reducing the capuchins' ability to view visitors improved their welfare. However we also found a reduction in the number of visitors when visual contact was reduced (from an average of 23 visitors per scan to 15, P = 0.008), suggesting that the visitor experience may have been compromised by the lack of interaction with the capuchins. These results highlight a possible dilemma for the zoo industry between enhancing animal welfare in primates and providing for visitor experience.

Variation at the DRD4 locus is associated with wariness and local site selection in urban black swans

 BACKGROUND: Interactions between wildlife and humans are increasing. Urban animals are often less wary of humans than their non-urban counterparts, which could be explained by habituation, adaptation or local site selection. Under local site selection, individuals that are less tolerant of humans are less likely to settle in urban areas. However, there is little evidence for such temperament-based site selection, and even less is known about its underlying genetic basis. We tested whether site selection in urban and non-urban habitats by black swans (Cygnus atratus) was associated with polymorphisms in two genes linked to fear in animals, the dopamine receptor D4 (DRD4) and serotonin transporter (SERT) genes.

RESULTS: Wariness in swans was highly repeatable between disturbance events (repeatability = 0.61) and non-urban swans initiated escape from humans earlier than urban swans. We found no inter-individual variation in the SERT gene, but identified five DRD4 genotypes and an association between DRD4 genotype and wariness. Individuals possessing the most common DRD4 genotype were less wary than individuals possessing rarer genotypes. As predicted by the local site selection hypothesis, genotypes associated with wary behaviour were over three times more frequent at the non-urban site. This resulted in moderate population differentiation at DRD4 (FST = 0.080), despite the sites being separated by only 30 km, a short distance for this highly-mobile species. Low population differentiation at neutrally-selected microsatellite loci and the likely occasional migration of swans between the populations reduces the likelihood of local site adaptations.

CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that wariness in swans is partly genetically-determined and that wary swans settle in less-disturbed areas. More generally, our findings suggest that site-specific management strategies may be necessary that consider the temperament of local animals.

Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event

Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.