Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

Bird predation experiments in tropical agroforestry landscapes of the Napu Valley in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

We performed bird predation experiments (dummy experiments), using artificial prey and bird community data to investigate the importance of predator diversity vs. predator identity in cacao agroforestry landscapes. All sample sites were situated at the northern tip of Napu Valley in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. After an initial mapping of the study area, we selected 15 smallholder cacao plantations as sites for our exclosure experiments in March 2010. For our predation experiment, we selected 10 (out of 15) study sites and 5 cacao trees per site for the application of artificial prey for birds (dummy caterpillars made of plasticine). Our study trees (numbered from 1 to 5 per site) were randomly chosen and we kept spacing of at least two unmanipulated cacao trees between two study trees to avoid clumped distribution. To quantify both daytime/diurnal predation and night-time/nocturnal predation (e.g. birds vs. bats), we applied 7 caterpillar dummies on all study trees and controlled them for predation marks in the early morning (05:00-06:00 am), in the evening (17:00-18:00 pm) and in the early morning on the next day (completing one survey round). In total, we performed four survey rounds per study site (in June and July 2011). The caterpillar dummies were always applied in the same order and on three different parts of each cacao study tree: One 'control dummy' (located on first branching of the cacao tree); 3 'branch dummies' (located on one main branch coming from first branching; 20-25 cm between single dummies) and 3 'leaf dummies' (3 medium aged cacao trees adjacent to main branch were selected and single dummies placed in the center of each cacao leaf). The different positions were chosen to control for different foraging modes of predators (e.g. branch gleaners versus leaf gleaners). During day- and nighttime surveys, we controlled if the dummy caterpillars were still present in their original position, if they were absent and could not be relocated on the ground or if they were fallen to the ground, but could still be recorded. Eaten dummies were counted as 1 mark usually, except for those dummies, where two or more different kind of arthropods had eaten parts of the dummy (2 marks or more). Other predation marks were added to this number. For each dummy, we counted the total number of different predation marks. We focused on predation marks that could be identified with certainty (based on preliminary observations and/or literature): marks of birds, rodents and snails. Finally, we analysed the relationship of bird predation marks and bird community parameters (abundance vs. diversity), as well as effects of local and landscape management on the avian predation success.

'Dancing the Downward Slide: Spaces of Affective Adjacency in Rian and Bird with Boy'

This chapter examines how the choreography of affect in two dance theatre works creates a space of affective adjacency—a space in which the building of an alternative structure of feeling and an alternative economy of the body can be experienced. Focusing on the choreographic use of repetition in Junk Ensemble’s Bird With Boy (2011) and Fabulous Beast Dance Theatre’s Rian (2011), it shows how the work required to build an alternative affective space can become visible. Although affect is most often viewed as a preconscious, ephemeral phenomenon (a passage of intensities), that can have little or no lasting impact on socio-political action, theorists such as Megan Watkins have argued for a consideration of the ‘cumulative aspects of affect’. Highlighting Spinoza’s distinction between affectus (the capacity for a body to affect and be affected), and affectio (the impact the affecting body leaves on the affected), Watkins points out that affectio can ‘leave a residue’ allowing for the ‘capacity of affect to be retained, to accumulate, to form dispositions and thus shape subjectivities’. The choreography of repetition in Bird With Boy and Rian presents sites for an examination of this accumulation of affect and its capacity not only to form and shape dispositions, but also, as Lauren Berlant suggests, ‘to move along and make worlds, situations, and environments’.

WHITE-NAPED CRANE Migratory Bird

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Early Bird & Night Owl Evaluation Tool (EBNOET) v2015

The early bird and night owl restaurant tool found in the accompanying Excel file provides an estimate of the effects of offering off-peak special menu prices. Unlike the classic back-of-envelope calculation, the tool includes the effect of anticipated cannibalization of full-price covers and seeks to optimize table use. The tool also considers the revenue from new customers attracted by the early bird or night owl promotions, as well as the level of increased business needed to achieve the net monetary value target for the promotion.

Estimating Bat and Bird Mortality Occurring at Wind Energy Turbines from Covariates and Carcass Searches Using Mixture Models

Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates) remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.

Avian influenza in Australia: a summary of 5 years of wild bird surveillance

BackgroundAvian influenza viruses (AIVs) are found worldwide in numerous bird species, causing significant disease in gallinaceous poultry and occasionally other species. Surveillance of wild bird reservoirs provides an opportunity to add to the understanding of the epidemiology of AIVs. MethodsThis study examined key findings from the National Avian Influenza Wild Bird Surveillance Program over a 5-year period (July 2007-June 2012), the main source of information on AIVs circulating in Australia. ResultsThe overall proportion of birds that tested positive for influenza A via PCR was 1.90.1%, with evidence of widespread exposure of Australian wild birds to most low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) subtypes (H1-13, H16). LPAI H5 subtypes were found to be dominant and widespread during this 5-year period. ConclusionGiven Australia's isolation, both geographically and ecologically, it is important for Australia not to assume that the epidemiology of AIV from other geographic regions applies here. Despite all previous highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian poultry being attributed to H7 subtypes, widespread detection of H5 subtypes in wild birds may represent an ongoing risk to the Australian poultry industry.

The pre-reproductive period in a tropical bird: parental care, dispersal, survival, and avian life histories

The period between offspring birth and recruitment into the breeding population is considered one of the least understood components of animal life histories. Yet, examining this period is essential for studies of parental care, dispersal, demography, and life histories. Studies of the pre-reproductive period are particularly few in tropical regions, where the organization of life histories are predicted to differ compared to northern hemisphere species. For my dissertation I used radio-telemetry, mark-resighting, and field observations to study the pre-reproductive period in a Neotropical bird, the western slaty-antshrike (Thamnophilus atrinucha), in Panama. First, I found that parental care after offspring left the nest (the post-fledging period) was greater than care during the nestling period. Prolonged care resulted in a clear trade-off for parents as they did not nest again until fledglings from the first brood were independent. Parents fed offspring for a prolonged duration during the post-fledging period and higher post-fledging survival was observed compared to many northern hemisphere species. Second, I observed that offspring that remained with parents for longer periods on the natal territory had higher survival both while on the natal territory and after dispersal compared to those dispersing earlier. Parental aggression towards offspring increased with offspring age and offspring dispersed earlier when parents renested. Contrary to other family living species, only a small proportion of antshrike offspring remained on the natal territory until the following year and all dispersed to float. Floating is when juveniles wander within other breeding pairs’ territories. These results suggest that the benefits of delayed dispersal declined with offspring age and with renesting by parents. Third, I observed that survival during the dependent period and first year was greater in slaty antshrikes compared to that of northern hemisphere species. Pre-reproductive survival relative to adult survival was equal or greater than that observed in northern hemisphere species. The date offspring left the nest, mass, and age at dispersal influenced offspring survival, whereas offspring sex and year did not. Relatively high survival during the pre-reproductive period coupled with comparatively low annual productivity clarifies how many tropical species achieve replacement. High juvenile survival appears to obtain from extended post-fledging parental care, delayed dispersal, low costs of dispersal, and a less seasonal environment. Lastly, I experimentally manipulated begging at the nest to examine changes in parental behavior. Under elevated begging, parents increased provisioning rates and reduced the time between arrival to the nest and feeding of nestlings, potentially to reduce begging sounds. Furthermore, parents switched to preferentially feed the closest offspring during the begging treatment. This suggests parents either allowed sibling competition to influence feeding decisions, or feeding the closer nestling increased the efficiency of provisioning. In summary, I found that slaty antshrikes have delayed age at reproduction, higher post-fledging and first year survival, extended post-fledging parental care, equal or greater pre-reproductive survival relative to adult survival, and delayed dispersal compared to many northern hemisphere passerines. These results suggest that this tropical species has a strategy of high investment into few offspring. Furthermore, reproductive effort is equal or greater at least in slaty antshrikes compared to northern hemisphere species, suggesting that the latitudinal gradient in clutch size is not explained by a gradient in reproductive effort.

Bird's eye view of Clinton, Mass. 1876.

Perspective map not drawn to scale.

Bird's eye view of Watkins, N.Y. /

Oriented with north toward the upper right.

The ins and outs of biosecurity: bird 'flu in East Anglia and the spatial representation of risk

Avian influenza, or 'bird 'flu' arrived in Norfolk in April 2006 in the form of the low pathogenic strain H7N3. In February 2007 a highly pathogenic strain, H5N1, which can pose a risk to humans, was discovered in Suffolk. We examine how a local newspaper reported the outbreaks, focusing on the linguistic framing of biosecurity. Consistent with the growing concern with securitisation among policymakers, issues were discussed in terms of space (indoor–outdoor; local–global; national–international) and flows (movement, barriers and vectors) between spaces (farms, sheds and countries). The apportioning of blame along the lines of 'them and us'– Hungary and England – was tempered by the reporting on the Hungarian operations of the British poultry company. Explanations focused on indoor and outdoor farming and alleged breaches of biosecurity by the companies involved. As predicted by the idea of securitisation, risks were formulated as coming from outside the supposedly secure enclaves of poultry production.