Constructing random matrices to represent real ecosystems

Models of complex systems with n components typically have order n² parameters because each component can potentially interact with every other. When it is impractical to measure these parameters, one may choose random parameter values and study the emergent statistical properties at the system level. Many influential results in theoretical ecology have been derived from two key assumptions: that species interact with random partners at random intensities and that intraspecific competition is comparable between species. Under these assumptions, community dynamics can be described by a community matrix that is often amenable to mathematical analysis. We combine empirical data with mathematical theory to show that both of these assumptions lead to results that must be interpreted with caution. We examine 21 empirically derived community matrices constructed using three established, independent methods. The empirically derived systems are more stable by orders of magnitude than results from random matrices. This consistent disparity is not explained by existing results on predator-prey interactions. We investigate the key properties of empirical community matrices that distinguish them from random matrices. We show that network topology is less important than the relationship between a species’ trophic position within the food web and its interaction strengths. We identify key features of empirical networks that must be preserved if random matrix models are to capture the features of real ecosystems.

Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

Pre-Processing Power Traces to Defeat Random Clocking Countermeasures

We describe a pre-processing correlation attack on an FPGA implementation of AES, protected with a random clocking countermeasure that exhibits complex variations in both the location and amplitude of the power consumption patterns of the AES rounds. It is demonstrated that the merged round patterns can be pre-processed to identify and extract the individual round amplitudes, enabling a successful power analysis attack. We show that the requirement of the random clocking countermeasure to provide a varying execution time between processing rounds can be exploited to select a sub-set of data where sufficient current decay has occurred, further improving the attack. In comparison with the countermeasure's estimated security of 3 million traces from an integration attack, we show that through application of our proposed techniques that the countermeasure can now be broken with as few as 13k traces.

An invasive-native mammalian species replacement process captured by camera trap survey random encounter models

Camera traps are used to estimate densities or abundances using capture-recapture and, more recently, random encounter models (REMs). We deploy REMs to describe an invasive-native species replacement process, and to demonstrate their wider application beyond abundance estimation. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is a high priority endemic of conservation concern. It is threatened by an expanding population of non-native, European hares L. europaeus, an invasive species of global importance. Camera traps were deployed in thirteen 1 km squares, wherein the ratio of invader to native densities were corroborated by night-driven line transect distance sampling throughout the study area of 1652 km2. Spatial patterns of invasive and native densities between the invader’s core and peripheral ranges, and native allopatry, were comparable between methods. Native densities in the peripheral range were comparable to those in native allopatry using REM, or marginally depressed using Distance Sampling. Numbers of the invader were substantially higher than the native in the core range, irrespective of method, with a 5:1 invader-to-native ratio indicating species replacement. We also describe a post hoc optimization protocol for REM which will inform subsequent (re-)surveys, allowing survey effort (camera hours) to be reduced by up to 57% without compromising the width of confidence intervals associated with density estimates. This approach will form the basis of a more cost-effective means of surveillance and monitoring for both the endemic and invasive species. The European hare undoubtedly represents a significant threat to the endemic Irish hare.

Allocating Participants to Groups In Educational Trials: What Does Random Mean?

What is meant by the term random? Do we understand how to identify which type of randomisation to use in our future research projects? We, as researchers, often explain randomisation to potential research participants as being a 50/50 chance of selection to either an intervention or control group, akin to drawing numbers out of a hat. Is this an accurate explanation? And are all methods of randomisation equal? This paper aims to guide the researcher through the different techniques used to randomise participants with examples of how they can be used in educational research.

Modelling health state preference data using fixed and random effects models

The use of preference-based measures of health in the measurement of Health Related Quality of Life has become widely used in health economics. Hence, the development of preference-based measures of health has been a major concern for researchers throughout the world. This study aims to model health state preference data using a new preference-based measure of health (the SF- 6D) and to suggest alternative models for predicting health state utilities using fixed and random effects models. It also seeks to investigate the problems found in the SF-6D and to suggest eventual changes to it.

Small area estimation using linear mixed models with heterogeneous covariance structures of random effects

The problem of Small Area Estimation is about how to produce reliable estimates of domain characteristics when the sample sizes within the domain is very small ou even zero.

A biased random-key genetic algorithm with forward-backward improvement for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a biased random-key genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem. The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. Active schedules are constructed using a priority-rule heuristic in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. A forward-backward improvement procedure is applied to all solutions. The chromosomes supplied by the genetic algorithm are adjusted to reflect the solutions obtained by the improvement procedure. The heuristic is tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A random key based genetic algorithm for the resource constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a genetic algorithm for the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP). The chromosome representation of the problem is based on random keys. The schedule is constructed using a heuristic priority rule in which the priorities of the activities are defined by the genetic algorithm. The heuristic generates parameterized active schedules. The approach was tested on a set of standard problems taken from the literature and compared with other approaches. The computational results validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Charles e Ray Eames, o casamento entre razão e emoção no design

O racionalismo surge como uma corrente filosófica, cuja operação mental e lógica é evidenciada. Sendo a principal característica do pensamento moderno o método, a bauhaus representa para o design a forma como a indústria se despiu dos ornamentos, buscando o ideal de forma e função. Numa corrente contemporânea, o design emocional retoma, além das funções que um objeto pode ter, estéticas, práticas e simbólicas, também as emocionais de identificação, fazendo rever os métodos. Este artigo faz uma relação deste contexto com a forma brilhante com que o casal Charles e Ray Eames, criou um método absolutamente emocional para a criação do design, iniciando, com a invenção do contraplacado, e depois com acesso a diversas tecnologias advindas do pós-guerra, um processo muito interessante de construção de design, aliando arte e técnica, produzindo assentos atemporais, encontrados facilmente no mundo contemporâneo.