ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations

Background The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. Results Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. Conclusion ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

The evolution of antennal courtship in diplazontine parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae, Diplazontinae)

Background As predicted by theory, traits associated with reproduction often evolve at a comparatively high speed. This is especially the case for courtship behaviour which plays a central role in reproductive isolation. On the other hand, courtship behavioural traits often involve morphological and behavioural adaptations in both sexes; this suggests that their evolution might be under severe constraints, for instance irreversibility of character loss. Here, we use a recently proposed method to retrieve data on a peculiar courtship behavioural trait, i.e. antennal coiling, for 56 species of diplazontine parasitoid wasps. On the basis of a well-resolved phylogeny, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of antennal coiling and associated morphological modifications to study the mode of evolution of this complex character system. Results Our study reveals a large variation in shape, location and ultra-structure of male-specific modifications on the antennae. As for antennal coiling, we find either single-coiling, double-coiling or the absence of coiling; each state is present in multiple genera. Using a model comparison approach, we show that the possession of antennal modifications is highly correlated with antennal coiling behaviour. Ancestral state reconstruction shows that both antennal modifications and antennal coiling are highly congruent with the molecular phylogeny, implying low levels of homoplasy and a comparatively low speed of evolution. Antennal coiling is lost on two independent occasions, and never reacquired. A zero rate of regaining antennal coiling is supported by maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Conclusions Our study provides the first comparative evidence for a tight correlation between male-specific antennal modifications and the use of the antennae during courtship. Antennal coiling in Diplazontinae evolved at a comparatively low rate, and was never reacquired in any of the studied taxa. This suggests that the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on the timescale examined here, and therefore that evolutionary constraints have greatly influenced the evolution of antennal courtship in this group of parasitoid wasps. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on larger timescales, and whether evolutionary constraints have influenced courtship behavioural traits in a similar way in other groups.

Growth hormone receptor polymorphism and growth hormone therapy response in children: a bayesian meta-analysis

Recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) therapy is used in the long-term treatment of children with growth disorders, but there is considerable treatment response variability. The exon 3-deleted growth hormone receptor polymorphism (GHR(d3)) may account for some of this variability. The authors performed a systematic review (to April 2011), including investigator-only data, to quantify the effects of the GHR(fl-d3) and GHR(d3-d3) genotypes on rhGH therapy response and used a recently established Bayesian inheritance model-free approach to meta-analyze the data. The primary outcome was the 1-year change-in-height standard-deviation score for the 2 genotypes. Eighteen data sets from 12 studies (1,527 children) were included. After several prior assumptions were tested, the most appropriate inheritance model was codominant (posterior probability = 0.93). Compared with noncarriers, carriers had median differences in 1-year change-in-height standard-deviation score of 0.09 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.01, 0.17) for GHR(fl-d3) and of 0.14 (95% CrI: 0.02, 0.26) for GHR(d3-d3). However, the between-study standard deviation of 0.18 (95% CrI: 0.10, 0.33) was considerable. The authors tested by meta-regression for potential modifiers and found no substantial influence. They conclude that 1) the GHR(d3) polymorphism inheritance is codominant, contrasting with previous reports; 2) GHR(d3) genotypes account for modest increases in rhGH effects in children; and 3) considerable unexplained variability in responsiveness remains.

Bacillus anthracis: Molecular taxonomy, population genetics, phylogeny and patho-evolution

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, manifests a particular bimodal lifestyle. This bacterial species alternates between short replication phases of 20-40 generations that strictly require infection of the host, normally causing death, interrupted by relatively long, mostly dormant phases as spores in the environment. Hence, the B. anthracis genome is highly homogeneous. This feature and the fact that strains from nearly all parts of the world have been analysed for canonical single nucleotide polymorphisms (canSNPs) and variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs) has allowed the development of molecular epidemiological and molecular clock models to estimate the age of major diversifications in the evolution of B. anthracis and to trace the global spread of this pathogen, which was mostly promoted by movement of domestic cattle with settlers and by international trade of contaminated animal products. From a taxonomic and phylogenetic point of view, B. anthracis is a member of the Bacillus cereus group. The differentiation of B. anthracis from B. cereus sensu strict, solely based on chromosomal markers, is difficult. However, differences in pathogenicity clearly differentiate B. anthracis from B. cereus and are marked by the strict presence of virulence genes located on the two virulence plasmids pXO1 and pXO2, which both are required by the bacterium to cause anthrax. Conversely, anthrax-like symptoms can also be caused by organisms with chromosomal features that are more closely related to B. cereus, but which carry these virulence genes on two plasmids that largely resemble the B. anthracis virulence plasmids. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative Ultrastructure and Molecular Phylogeny of Selenidium melongena n. sp and S. terebellae Ray 1930 Demonstrate Niche Partitioning in Marine Gregarine Parasites (Apicomplexa)

Gregarine apicomplexans are a diverse group of single-celled parasites that have feeding stages (trophozoites) and gamonts that generally inhabit the extracellular spaces of invertebrate hosts living in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial environments. Inferences about the evolutionary morphology of gregarine apicomplexans are being incrementally refined by molecular phylogenetic data, which suggest that several traits associated with the feeding cells of gregarines arose by convergent evolution. The study reported here supports these inferences by showing how molecular data reveals traits that are phylogenetically misleading within the context of comparative morphology alone. We examined the ultrastructure and molecular phylogenetic positions of two gregarine species isolated from the spaghetti worm Thelepus japonicus: Selenidium terebellae Ray 1930 and S. melongena n. sp. The ultrastructural traits of S. terebellae were very similar to other species of Selenidium sensu stricto, such as having vermiform trophozoites with an apical complex, few epicytic folds, and a dense array of microtubules underlying the trilayered pellicle. By contrast, S. melongena n. sp. lacked a comparably discrete assembly of subpellicular microtubules, instead employing a system of fibrils beneath the cell surface that supported a relatively dense array of helically arranged epicytic folds. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of small subunit rDNA sequences derived from single-cell PCR unexpectedly demonstrated that these two gregarines are close sister species. The ultrastructural differences between these two species were consistent with the fact that S. terebellae infects the inner lining of the host intestines, and S. melongena n. sp. primarily inhabits the coelom, infecting the outside wall of the host intestine. Altogether, these data demonstrate a compelling case of niche partitioning and associated morphological divergence in marine gregarine apicomplexans. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A Fully Bayesian Approach for Combining Multilevel Failure Information in Fault Tree Quantification and Corresponding Optimal Resource Allocation

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm.