Development of Effortful Control as a Moderator of the Longitudinal Relations of Negative Reactivity and Symptoms in Preschool

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Receptors, sparks and waves in a fire-diffuse-fire framework for calcium release

Calcium ions are an important second messenger in living cells. Indeed calcium signals in the form of waves have been the subject of much recent experimental interest. It is now well established that these waves are composed of elementary stochastic release events (calcium puffs or sparks) from spatially localised calcium stores. The aim of this paper is to analyse how the stochastic nature of individual receptors within these stores combines to create stochastic behaviour on long timescales that may ultimately lead to waves of activity in a spatially extended cell model. Techniques from asymptotic analysis and stochastic phase-plane analysis are used to show that a large cluster of receptor channels leads to a release probability with a sigmoidal dependence on calcium density. This release probability is incorporated into a computationally inexpensive model of calcium release based upon a stochastic generalization of the Fire-Diffuse-Fire (FDF) threshold model. Numerical simulations of the model in one and two dimensions (with stores arranged on both regular and disordered lattices) illustrate that stochastic calcium release leads to the spontaneous production of calcium sparks that may merge to form saltatory waves. Illustrations of spreading circular waves, spirals and more irregular waves are presented. Furthermore, receptor noise is shown to generate a form of array enhanced coherence resonance whereby all calcium stores release periodically and simultaneously.

Idealized modeling of the role of stability and shear on mesoscale gravity wave evolution

Mesoscale Gravity Waves (MGWs) are large pressure perturbations that form in the presence of a stable layer at the surface either behind Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in summer or over warm frontal surfaces behind elevated convection in winter. MGWs are associated with damaging winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and occasional heat bursts at the surface. The forcing mechanism for MGWs in this study is hypothesized to be evaporative cooling occurring behind a convective line. This evaporatively-cooled air generates a downdraft that then depresses the surface-based stable layer and causes pressure decreases, strong wind speeds and MGW genesis. Using the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) version 3.0, evaporative cooling is simulated using an imposed cold thermal. Sensitivity studies examine the response of MGW structure to different thermal and shear profiles where the strength and depth of the inversion are varied, as well as the amount of wind shear. MGWs are characterized in terms of response variables, such as wind speed perturbations (U'), temperature perturbations (T'), pressure perturbations (P'), potential temperature perturbations (Θ'), and the correlation coefficient (R) between U' and P'. Regime Diagrams portray the response of MGW to the above variables in order to better understand the formation, causes, and intensity of MGWs. The results of this study indicate that shallow, weak surface layers coupled with deep, neutral layers above favor the formation of waves of elevation. Conversely, deep strong surface layers coupled with deep, neutral layers above favor the formation of waves of depression. This is also the type of atmospheric setup that tends to produce substantial surface heating at the surface.

Coupling of magnetic, strain and electric polarization fields in the structure of multiferroic material

The comprehensive study on the coupling of magnetism, electrical polarization and the crystalline lattice with the off-stoichiometric effects in self-doped multiferroic hexagonal h-LuMnxO3±δ (0.92≤x≤1.12) ceramic oxides was carried out for the PhD work. There is a complex coupling of the three ferroic degrees. The cancelation of the magnetic moments of ions in the antiferromagnetic order, electric polarization with specific vortex/antivortex topology and lattice properties have pushed researchers to find out ways to disclose the underlying physics and chemistry of magneto-electric and magneto-elastic couplings of h-RMnO3 multiferroic materials. In this research work, self-doping of Lu-sites or Mn-sites of h-LuMnxO3±δ ceramics prepared via solid state route was done to pave a way for deeper understanding of the antiferromagnetic transition, the weak ferromagnetism often reported in the same crystalline lattices and the ferroelectric properties coupled to the imposed lattice changes. Accordingly to the aim of the PhD thesis, the objectives set for the sintering study in the first chapter on experimental results were two. First, study of sintering off-stoichiometric samples within conditions reported in the bibliography and also extracted from the phase diagrams of the LuMnxO3±δ, with a multiple firings ending with a last high temperature step at 1300ºC for 24 hours. Second, explore longer annealing times of up to 240 hours at the fixed temperature of 1300 ºC in a search for improving the properties of the solid solution under study. All series of LuMnxO3±δ ceramics for each annealing time were characterized to tentatively build a framework enabling comparison of measured properties with results of others available in literature. XRD and Rietveld refinement of data give the evolution the lattice parameters as a function to x. Shrinkage of the lattice parameters with increasing x values was observed, the stability limit of the solid solution being determined by analysis of lattice parameters. The evolution of grain size and presence of secondary phases have been investigated by means of TEM, SEM, EDS and EBSD techniques. The dependencies of grain growth and regression of secondary phases on composition x and time were further characterized. Magnetic susceptibility of samples and magnetic irreversibility were extensively examined in the present work. The dependency of magnetic susceptibility, Neel ordering transition and important magnetic parameters are determined and compared to observation in other multiferroics in the following chapter of the thesis. As a tool of high sensitivity to detect minor traces of the secondary phase hausmannite, magnetic measurements are suggested for cross-checking of phase diagrams. Difficulty of previous studies on interpreting the magnetic anomaly below 43 K in h-RMnO3 oxides was discussed and assigned to the Mn3O4 phase, with supported of the electron microscopy. Magneto-electric coupling where AFM ordering is coupled to dielectric polarization is investigated as a function of x and of sintering condition via frequency and temperature dependent complex dielectric constant measurements in the final chapter of the thesis. Within the limits of solid solubility, the crystalline lattice of off-stoichiometric ceramics was shown to preserve the magneto-electric coupling at TN. It represents the first research work on magneto-electric coupling modified by vacancy doping to author’s knowledge. Studied lattices would reveal distortions at the atomic scale imposed by local changes of x dependent on sintering conditions which were widely inspected by using TEM/STEM methods, complemented with EDS and EELS spectroscopy all together to provide comprehensive information on cross coupling of distortions, inhomogeneity and electronic structure assembled and discussed in a specific chapter. Internal interfaces inside crystalline grains were examined. Qualitative explanations of the measured magnetic and ferroelectric properties were established in relation to observed nanoscale features of h-LuMnxO3±δ ceramics. Ferroelectric domains and topological defects are displayed both in TEM and AFM/PFM images, the later technique being used to look at size, distribution and switching of ferroelectric domains influenced by vacancy doping at the micron scale bridging to complementary TEM studies on the atomic structure of ferroelectric domains. In support to experimental study, DFT simulations using Wien2K code have been carried out in order to interpret the results of EELS spectra of O K-edge and to obtain information on the cation hybridization to oxygen ions. The L3,2 edges of Mn is used to access the oxidation state of the Mn ions inside crystalline grains. In addition, rehybridization driven ferroelectricity is also evaluated by comparing the partial density of states of the orbitals of all ions of the samples, also the polarization was calculated and correlated to the off-stoichiometric effect.

The effect of dissolved magnesium on diffusion creep in calcite

We experimentally tested a series of synthetic calcite marbles with varying amounts of dissolved magnesium in a standard triaxial deformation machine at 300 MPa confining pressure, temperatures between 700 and 850°C, stresses between 2 and 100 MPa, and strain rates between 10−7 and 10−3 s−1. The samples were fabricated by hot isostatic pressing of a mixture of calcite and dolomite at 850°C and 300 MPa. The fabrication protocol resulted in a homogeneous, fine-grained high-magnesian calcite aggregate with minimal porosity and with magnesium contents between 0.07 and 0.17 mol% MgCO3. At stresses below 40 MPa the samples deformed with linear viscosity that depended inversely on grain size to the 3.26±0.51 power, suggesting that the mechanisms of deformation were some combination of grain boundary diffusion and grain boundary sliding. Because small grain sizes tended to occur in the high-magnesium calcite, the strength also appeared to vary inversely with magnesium content. However, the strength at constant grain size does not depend on the amount of dissolved magnesium, and thus, the impurity effect seems to be indirect. At stresses higher than 40 MPa, the aggregates become non-linearly viscous, a regime we interpret to be dislocation creep. The transition between the two regimes depends on grain size, as expected. The activation energy for diffusion creep is 200±30 kJ/mol and is quite similar to previous measurements in natural and synthetic marbles deformed at similar conditions with no added magnesium.

The influence of nano-scale second-phase particles on deformation of fine grained calcite mylonites

Grey and white carbonate mylonites were collected along thrust planes of the Helvetic Alps. They are characterised by very small grain sizes and non-random grain shape (SPO) and crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO). Presumably they deformed in the field of grain size sensitive flow by recrystallisation accommodated intracrystalline deformation in combination with granular flow. Both mylonites show a similar mean grain size, but in the grey mylonites the grain size range is larger, the grain shapes are more elongate and the dynamically recrystallised calcite grains are more often twinned. Grey mylonites have an oblique CPO, while the CPO in white mylonites is symmetric with respect to the shear plane. Combustion analysis and TEM investigations revealed that grey mylonites contain a higher amount of highly structured kerogens with particle sizes of a few tens of nanometers, which are finely dispersed at the grain boundaries. During deformation of the rock, nano-scale particles reduced the migration velocity of grain boundaries by Zener drag resulting in slower recrystallisation rates of the calcite aggregate. In the grey mylonites, more strain increments were accommodated by individual grains before they became refreshed by dynamic recrystallisation than in white mylonites, where grain boundary migration was less hindered and recrystallisation cycles were faster. Consequently, grey mylonites represent ‘deformation’ microfabrics while white mylonites are characterised by ‘recrystallisation’ microfabrics. Field geologists must utilise this different deformation behavior when applying the obliquity in CPO and SPO of the respective mylonites as reliable shear sense indicators.

An investigation on benthic macro-invertebrates species diversity as bio-indicators of environmental health in Bahrekan Bay

The purpose of this study was to evaluate benthic macro-invertebrates species diversity as bio-indicators of environmental health in Bahrekan bay (in the Northwest of Persian gulf). Seasonal sediments sampling along 5 transects, 15 stations at 4 replicates (3 replicates for macrobenthos and 1 replicate for sediment analysis) was done from November 2008 to August 2009 by 0.025 m2 Van Veen grab sampler. Physical and chemical parameters of water, grain size analysis, %TOM and Ni and Va concentrations of sediments were assessed through four seasons. Macrobenthic communities after staining and sorting, using stereomicroscope have been identified. Their density in every station and every season calculated. For using of AMBI index, identified macrobenthos according to their sensitivity to stressors and pollutants, categorized into 5 ecological groups and for using of Bentix index categorized into 3 ecological groups. The diversity indices and indicators that showing ecological status were calculated. Also, the differences between physiochemical parameters of sea water, sediments TOM% and grain size, diversity indices in stations and seasons were recorded (P=0.05). The correlation coefficient determined for all parameters. According to the results of grain size analysis, bottom grain size categorized as clay. Highest percent of TOM was belong to autumn (36.39±.075) and lowest was belong to summer (19.01±0.51). Also there was positive correlation (p=0.01) between %TOM and %Clay that showing sediments with lowest size containing highest amounts of organic matters. Ni concentrations in sediments (87.80±21.25)mg/kg showed the amounts over than standards levels but Va concentrations in sediments (53.54±17.60)mg/kg showed the amounts lower than standards level. The highest density of macrobenthos was recorded for summer (8254±485) N/m2 and the lowest density was recorded for spring (3775±172)N/m2. The highest annual density was belong to mollusca (81%) and then polycheates (13%), Others (4%) and crustaceae (2%). The highest diversity was recorded for winter (Simpson index: 0.13±0.01, H':3.47±0.06) and the lowest diversity recorded for autumn (Simpson index: 0.16±0.01, H':3.17±0.06). in all stations, the highest amount of Shanon index was belong to T2S3 station in summer (4.11± 0.32) and the lowest amount was belong to T1S1 station in autumn (2.42± 0.41). The annual mean of Simpson diversity index: (0.15 ±0.04) and Shanon diversity index (3.36±0.03), illustrated that macrobenthos in Bahrekan bay have a good variation. The results of Brilluin and N1 (Number of equally common species) indices confirm the results of Simpson index. For study on the regions that diversity has a little difference between stations, with use of Ni index, the degree of differences could be better ono recognizable. According to the results of AMBI index in all seasons (autumn: 0.46±0.03; summer: 0.22±0.01; annual mean:0.31±0.01) and standards (0.0of Bentix index in all seasons (autumn: 5.07±0.07; summer: 5.57±0.02; annual mean: 5.40±0.02) and standards (4.5of AMBI and Bentix indices, highest amount of species diversity was belong to the summer and the lowest amount of species diversity was belong to the autumn. With regarding to high species diversity in Bahrekan Bay, AMBI index present accurate assessment rather to Bentix index. AMBI can be used successfully in ecosystems like to study area for detecting the pollutant and disturbance recourses.

Geomorphology and sedimentology of a modern isolated carbonate platform: The glorieuses archipelago, SW Indian Ocean

The study of modern carbonate systems is commonly helps in improving facies interpretation in fossil reefs and in providing analogues of sediment distribution depending on the specific platform configuration (i.e. rimmed shelves and isolated carbonate platforms). This paper deals with a geomorphological and sedimentological study of the Glorieuses Archipelago, an isolated carbonate platform located between the northern tip of Madagascar and Mayotte. The dataset consists of Digital Terrain Model, satellite imagery, and box-sediment samples. Analyses of grain-size and composition of carbonate grains are used to characterize the distribution and heterogeneity of sediment accumulated on the isolated platform. Main results show that the Glorieuses Archipelago is organized in distinctive morphological units, including a reef flat developed along the windward side, an apron, and a semi-enclosed (< 12 m water depth) to open lagoon (> 12 m and up to 15 m water depth). The lack of carbonate mud in sediments deposited on the archipelago can be explained by the direct connection between the lagoon and the open ocean. The main carbonate grains include Halimeda segments, coral fragments, large benthic foraminifers, red algae, and molluscs. According to the shape and the position of intertidal sandwaves, the current arrangement of moderately sorted fine to medium sands appears to be strongly influenced by tidal currents. The in-situ sediment production, accumulation and transport on the platform finally contribute to carbonate sand export to distinct deep marine areas depending on wind regimes and currents.

Maize inbreds from different heterotic groups as favorable sources for increased potential bioavailability of magnesium, iron, manganese and zinc

Malnutrition, as a global problem, is mainly caused by low level of mineral elements in staple food (deficient soil). Biofortification is based on selection of genotypes with enhanced concentration of mineral elements in grain, as well as decreased concentration of substances which interfere bioavailability of mineral elements in gut (like phytic acid), and increased content of substances that increase availability (such as β-carotene). The experiment with 51 maize ( Zea mays L.) inbred lines with different heterotic background was set up in order to evaluate chemical composition of grain and to determine the relations between phytic acid (PA), β-carotene, and mineral elements: Mg, Fe, Mn, and Zn. The highest average phytate, β-carotene, Fe, and Mn content was found in grain of inbreds from Lancaster heterotic group. The highest content of Mg was in grain of Independent source and Zn in grain of BSSS group. Increased level of Fe and Mn in Lancaster lines could be partially affected by higher PA content in grain, while increased β-carotene content could improve Mn and Zn availability from grain of BSSS genotypes and Mg availability from Lancaster inbreds. It is important to underline that PA reduction is followed by Zn content increase in grain of Lancaster heterotic group, as well as that variations in Mg, Fe, and Mn contents are independent on PA status in inbreds from Independent source, indicating that the genotypes with higher Mg, Fe and Mn status from this group could serve as favorable source for improved Mg, Fe, and Mn absorption.

Estimation of mercury background values in sediment and biota of the Bijagós archipelago, Guinea-Bissau

This work evaluates the mercury (Hg) contamination status (sediments and biota) of the Bijagós archipelago, off the coast of Guinea-Bissau. Sediments exhibited very low concentrations (<1-12ngg(-1)), pointing to negligible sources of anthropogenic Hg in the region. Nevertheless, Hg is well correlated to the fine fraction, aluminium, and loss on ignition, indicating the effect of grain size and organic matter content on the presence of Hg in sediments. Mercury in the bivalves Tagelus adansoni and Senilia senilis did not vary considerably among sites, ranging within narrow intervals (0.09-0.12 and 0.12-0.14μgg(-1) (dry weight), respectively). Divergent substrate preferences/feeding tactics may justify slight differences between species. The value 11ngg(-1) is proposed as the sediment background concentration for this West-African coastal region, and concentrations within the interval 8-10ngg(-1) (wet weight) may be considered as reference range for S. senilis and T. adansoni in future monitoring studies.

THERE GOES THE ELECTORAL NEIGHBORHOOD: LOCAL NETWORKS, ATTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY, AND THE (UN) FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS

During the last two decades there have been but a handful of recorded cases of electoral fraud in Latin America. However, survey research consistently shows that often citizens do not trust the integrity of the electoral process. This dissertation addresses the puzzle by explaining the mismatch between how elections are conducted and how the process is perceived. My theoretical contribution provides a double-folded argument. First, voters’ trust in their community members (“the local experience”) impacts their level of confidence in the electoral process. Since voters often find their peers working at polling stations, negative opinions about them translate into negative opinions about the election. Second, perceptions of unfairness of the system (“the global effect”) negatively impact the way people perceive the transparency of the electoral process. When the political system fails to account for social injustice, citizens lose faith in the mechanism designed to elect representatives -and ultimately a set of policies. The fact that certain groups are systematically disregarded by the system triggers the notion that the electoral process is flawed. This is motivated by either egotropic or sociotropic considerations. To test these hypotheses, I employ a survey conducted in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala during May/June 2014, which includes a population-based experiment. I show that Voters who trust their peers consistently have higher confidence in the electoral process. Whereas respondents who were primed about social unfairness (treatment) expressed less confidence in the quality of the election. Finally, I find that the local experience is predominant over the global effect. The treatment has a statistically significant effect only for respondents who trust their community. Attribution of responsibility for voters who are skeptics of their peers is clear and simple, leaving no room for a more diffuse mechanism, the unfairness of the political system. Finally, now I extend analysis to the Latin America region. Using data from LAPOP that comprises four waves of surveys in 22 countries, I confirm the influence of the “local experience” and the “global effect” as determinants of the level of confidence in the electoral process.

Three Essays on a Longitudinal Analysis of Business Start-ups using the Kauffman Firm Survey

This dissertation focused on the longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using three waves of data from the Kauffman Firm Survey. The first essay used the data from years 2004-2008, and examined the simultaneous relationship between a firm’s capital structure, human resource policies, and its impact on the level of innovation. The firm leverage was calculated as, debt divided by total financial resources. Index of employee well-being was determined by a set of nine dichotomous questions asked in the survey. A negative binomial fixed effects model was used to analyze the effect of employee well-being and leverage on the count data of patents and copyrights, which were used as a proxy for innovation. The paper demonstrated that employee well-being positively affects the firm's innovation, while a higher leverage ratio had a negative impact on the innovation. No significant relation was found between leverage and employee well-being. The second essay used the data from years 2004-2009, and inquired whether a higher entrepreneurial speed of learning is desirable, and whether there is a linkage between the speed of learning and growth rate of the firm. The change in the speed of learning was measured using a pooled OLS estimator in repeated cross-sections. There was evidence of a declining speed of learning over time, and it was concluded that a higher speed of learning is not necessarily a good thing, because speed of learning is contingent on the entrepreneur's initial knowledge, and the precision of the signals he receives from the market. Also, there was no reason to expect speed of learning to be related to the growth of the firm in one direction over another. The third essay used the data from years 2004-2010, and determined the timing of diversification activities by the business start-ups. It captured when a start-up diversified for the first time, and explored the association between an early diversification strategy adopted by a firm, and its survival rate. A semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the survival pattern. The results demonstrated that firms diversifying at an early stage in their lives show a higher survival rate; however, this effect fades over time.

Properties of polycrystalline gas sensors based on d.c. and a.c. electrical measurements

Electrical properties of polycrystalline gas sensors are analyzed by d.c. and a.c. measurements. d.c. electrical conductivity values compared with those obtained by admittance spectroscopy methods help to obtain a detailed 'on line' analysis of conductivity-modulated gas sensors. The electrical behaviour of grain boundaries is obtained and a new design of sensors can be achieved by enhancing the activity of surface states in the detecting operation. A Schottky barrier model is used to explain the grain boundary action under the presence of surrounding gases. The height of this barrier is a function of gas concentration due to the trapping of excess charge generated by gas adsorption at the interface. A comparison between this dependence, and a plot of the real and imaginary components of the admittance versus frequency at different gas concentrations, provides information on the different parameters that play a role in the conduction mechanisms. These methods have been applied to the design of a CO sensor based on tin oxide films for domestic purposes, the characteristics of which are presented.

Ranganathan’s Layers of Classification Theory and the FASDA Model of Classification

Describes four waves of Ranganathan’s dynamic theory of classification. Outlines components that distinguish each wave, and porposes ways in which this understanding can inform systems design in the contemporary environment, particularly with regard to interoperability and scheme versioning. Ends with an appeal to better understanding the relationship between structure and semantics in faceted classification schemes and similar indexing languages.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.