Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

The bondage of an imposed visual discourse : understanding the built environment's influence on the 'oldest-old' aged care residents' sense of peace

This study investigates the influence of the built environment upon residents' sense of familiarity, concept of self and thus, their facilitation of place through the theory of "The Bondage of Imposed Visual Discourse". Simone de Beauvoir's theory "The Bondage of Feminine Elegance" provides the conceptual understanding of the visual discourse between the physicality of clothing and the wearer's personal identity. This fashion theory is transposed to explore the influence of the built environment's physicality upon aged care residents' personal identity. This paper presents findings from a study of professionals' opinions in reference to the built environment of permanent residential aged care for the 'oldest-old' of Australia. The researcher conducted qualitative interviews with four participants: an architect, occupational therapist, nursing home facility manager and an aged care lobbyist in the South-East Queensland. This study is structured towards proposing "place-focused" qualitative design principles to encourage residents' sense of place through the built environment. These proposed principles are addressed with reference to existing Standards and Principles outlined by the Australian Government.

On the empirical eigenvalue distribution of slotted amplify-and-forward relaying protocol model

In this paper we consider the case of large cooperative communication systems where terminals use the protocol known as slotted amplify-and-forward protocol to aid the source in its transmission. Using the perturbation expansion methods of resolvents and large deviation techniques we obtain an expression for the Stieltjes transform of the asymptotic eigenvalue distribution of a sample covariance random matrix of the type HH† where H is the channel matrix of the transmission model for the transmission protocol we consider. We prove that the resulting expression is similar to the Stieltjes transform in its quadratic equation form for the Marcenko-Pastur distribution.

Preliminary characterisation of the surface of cartilage following exposure to saturated and unsaturated synthetic lipids

Articular cartilage is covered by a microscopic structure known as surface amorphous layer. This surface structure is often the first victim of attack during cartilage degeneration, thereby resulting in a gross impairment in cartilage function such as lubrication and load bearing. We hypothesize that incubation of degraded cartilage in solutions of different species of synthetic surface active phospholipids (saturated and unsaturated species) can remodel this lost surface structure. To test this hypothesis, the structural configuration of the surface of articular cartilage was studied and characterised with the lipid filled surface amorphous layer intact using the AFM. The results were then compared with those obtained following a systematic removal (delipidization) and replacement (relipidization) of this layer. Our results show that the unsaturated surfactant partially restored the lost surface amorphous layer while the saturated surfactant specie settled on the surface due to its poor solubility in aqueous solution.

Investigation of hybridized polyurethane, glass fibre reinforced cement and steel laminate in structural floor plate systems

Sandwich components have emerged as light weight, efficient, economical, recyclable and reusable building systems which provide an alternative to both stiffened steel and reinforced concrete. These components are made of composite materials in which two metal face plates or Glassfibre Reinforced Cement (GRC) layers are bonded and form a sandwich with light weight compact polyurethane (PU) elastomer core. Existing examples of product applications are light weight sandwich panels for walls and roofs, Sandwich Plate System (SPS) for stadia, arena terraces, naval construction and bridges and Domeshell structures for dome type structures. Limited research has been conducted to investigate performance characteristics and applicability of sandwich or hybrid materials as structural flooring systems. Performance characteristics of Hybrid Floor Plate Systems comprising GRC, PU and Steel have not been adequately investigated and quantified. Therefore there is very little knowledge and design guidance for their application in commercial and residential buildings. This research investigates performance characteristics steel, PU and GRC in Hybrid Floor Plate Systems (HFPS) and develops a new floor system with appropriate design guide lines.

Optical non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage integrity : a review

This paper reviews the current status of the application of optical non-destructive methods, particularly infrared (IR) and near infrared (NIR), in the evaluation of the physiological integrity of articular cartilage. It is concluded that a significant amount of work is still required in order to achieve specificity and clinical applicability of these methods in the assessment and treatment of dysfunctional articular joints.

Hall-petch relationship and strain rate sensitivity of nanocrystalline Mg - 5wt% A1 alloy

This study investigated the grain size dependence of mechanical properties and deformation mechanisms of microcrystalline (mc) and nanocrystalline (nc: grain size below 100 nm) Mg-5wt% Al alloys. The Hall-Petch relationship was investigated by both instrumented indentation tests and compression tests. The test results from the indentation tests and compression tests match well with each other. The breakdown of Hall-Petch relationship and the elevated strain rate sensitivity (SRS) of present Mg-5wt% Al alloys when the grain size was reduced below 58nm indicated the more significant role of GB mediated mechanisms in plastic deformation process. However, the relatively smaller SRS values compared to GB sliding and coble creep process suggested the plastic deformation in the current study is still dislocation mediated mechanism dominant.

An assessment of timber dwellings typical of the Queenslander era, and constraints associated with their relocation, component and adaptive reuse when considering 'regeneration'

This paper presents an explanation of why the reuse of building components after demolition or deconstruction is critical to the future of the construction industry. An examination of the historical cause and response to climate change sets the scene as to why governance is becoming increasingly focused on the built environment as a mechanism to controlling waste generation associated with the process of demolition, construction and operation. Through an annotated description to the evolving design and construction methodology of a range of timber dwellings (typically 'Queenslanders' during the eras of 1880-1900, 1900-1920 & 1920-1940) the paper offers an evaluation to the variety of materials, which can be used advantageously by those wishing to 'regenerate' a Queenslander. This analysis of 'regeneration' details the constraints when considering relocation and/ or reuse by adaption including deconstruction of building components against the legislative framework requirements of the Queensland Building Act 1975 and the Queensland Sustainable Planning Act 2009, with a specific examination to those of the Building Codes of Australia. The paper concludes with a discussion of these constraints, their impacts on 'regeneration' and the need for further research to seek greater understanding of the practicalities and drivers of relocation, adaptive and building components suitability for reuse after deconstruction.

Using Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors to measure vertical displacements of bridges : a preliminary study

In many bridges, vertical displacements are the most relevant parameter for monitoring in the both short and long term. However, it is difficult to measure vertical displacements of bridges and yet they are among the most important indicators of structural behaviour. Therefore, it prompts a need to develop a simple, inexpensive and yet more practical method to measure vertical displacements of bridges. With the development of fiber-optics technologies, fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors have been widely used in structural health monitoring. The advantages of these sensors over the conventional sensors include multiplexing capabilities, high sample rate, small size and electro magnetic interference (EMI) immunity. In this paper, methods of vertical displacement measurements of bridges are first reviewed. Then, FBG technology is briefly introduced including principle, sensing system, characteristics and different types of FBG sensors. Finally, the methodology of vertical displacement measurements using FBG sensors is presented and a trial test is described. It is concluded that using FBG sensors is feasible to measure vertical displacements of bridges. This method can be used to understand global behaviour of bridge‘s span and can further develop for structural health monitoring techniques such as damage detection.

Quantifying axial deformation of columns using vibration characteristics

Column elements at a certain level in building are subjected to loads from different tributary areas. Consequently, differential axial deformation among these elements occurs. Adverse effects of differential axial deformation increase with building height and geometric complexity. Vibrating wire, electronic strain and external mechanical strain gauges are used to measure the axial deformations to take adequate provisions to mitigate the adverse effects. These gauges require deploying in or on the elements during their construction in order to acquire necessary measurements continuously. The use of these gauges is therefore inconvenient and uneconomical. This highlights the need for a method to quantify the axial deformation using ambient measurements. This paper proposes a comprehensive vibration based method. The unique capabilities of the proposed method present through an illustrative example.

Seismic capacity of building constructed in slip formed load bearing wall panels

Constructing buildings using slip formed load bearing wall panels is becoming increasingly popular in Sri Lanka due to several advantages; low cost, environmental friendliness and rapid construction technique. These wall panels are already successfully implemented in many low rise buildings. However, the seismic capacities of these buildings have not been properly studied. Few seismic activities reported in Sri Lanka have not caused severe structural damage, but predictions can not be made as to whether this will continue to be the case in the future. This highlights the need to study the seismic capacity of buildings constructed in slip formed load bearing wall panels. This paper presents a study of the seismic capacity of the existing medium rise building.

Quantifying axial deformations of core shear walls using modal parameters

Differential axial deformation between column elements and shear wall elements of cores increase with building height and geometric complexity. Adverse effects due to the differential axial deformation reduce building performance and life time serviceability. Quantifying axial deformations using ambient measurements from vibrating wire, external mechanical and electronic strain gauges in order to acquire adequate provisions to mitigate the adverse effects is well established method. However, these gauges require installing in or on elements to acquire continuous measurements and hence use of these gauges is uneconomical and inconvenient. This motivates to develop a method to quantify the axial deformations. This paper proposes an innovative method based on modal parameters to quantify axial deformations of shear wall elements in cores of buildings. Capabilities of the method are presented though an illustrative example.

Dangers of the after-dark wonderlands : Part A - A review of the impact of physical environment design on nightclub violence

Nightclubs are businesses. Their business is pleasure; however pleasure has its price. People have become increasingly concerned about the problems of violence in society but why do higher levels of violence occur in nightclubs despite the established patterns of behaviour that dictates how we socialise and act? In response, researchers have focused on identifying social and situational factors that may contribute to violence from a government perspective, focusing on a variety of specific issues ranging from financial standpoints with effective target marketing strategies to legal obligations of supplying alcohol and abiding regulatory conditions. There is little research into specific design properties that can determine design standards to ensure/improve the physical design of nightclub environments to reduce patron violence. To address this gap, this current article aims to understand how people experience and respond to the physical environment of nightclubs and how these spaces influence their behaviour. The first section of this paper examines the background on nightclubs and theories concerning the influence of pleasure. The second section of this paper details the findings of existing studies that have examined the nightlife context and the various factors that influence patron violence. The main finding of this paper is that although alcohol likely plays a contributing role in aggressive patron behaviour, there is evidence that the relationship is moderated by a number of significant factors relating to the characteristics of the drinking environment such as: physical comfort; the degree of overall 'permissiveness‘ in the establishment; crowding; and physical environmental elements most influenced by day to-day management practices such as lighting, ventilation, cleanliness and seating arrangements. The findings from this paper have been used to develop a framework to guide exploratory research on how specific elements of the physical environment of nightclubs have an impact on elevated patron aggression and assault (Koleczko & Garcia Hansen, 2011).

Dangers of the after-dark wonderlands : Part B - A review of the impact of the physical environment design on nightclub violence

Violence in nightclubs is a serious problem that has the Australian government launching multimillion dollar drinking campaigns. Research on nightclub violence has focused on identifying contributing social and environmental factors, with many concentrating on a variety of specific issues ranging from financial standpoints with effective target marketing strategies to legal obligations of supplying alcohol and abiding regulatory conditions. Moreover, existing research suggests that there is no single factor that directly affects the rate violence in licensed venues. As detailed in the review paper of Koleczko and Garcia Hansen (2011), there is little research about the physical environment of nightclubs and which specific design properties can be used to determine design standards to ensure/improve the physical design of nightclub environments to reduce patron violence. This current study seeks to address this omission by reporting on a series of interviews with participants from management and design domains. Featured case studies are both located in Fortitude Valley, a Mecca for party-goers and the busiest nightclub district in Queensland. The results and analysis support the conclusions that a number of elements of the physical environment influence elevated patron aggression and assault.

The causes and consequences of corruption

This thesis comprehensively studies the causes and consequences of corruption in both crosscountry and within-country contexts, mainly focusing on China. The thesis commences by extensively investigating the causes of corruption. Using the standard economic approach, this study finds that in China regions with more anti-corruption efforts, higher education attainment, Anglo-American historic influence, higher openness, more access to media, higher relative wages of government employees, and a greater representation of women in legislature are markedly less corrupt; while the social heterogeneity, deregulation and abundance of resources, substantially breed regional corruption. Moreover, fiscal decentralization is discovered to depress corruption significantly. This study also observes a positive relationship between corruption and the economic development in current China that is mainly driven by the transition to a market economy. Focusing on the influence of political institutions on corruption, the thesis then provides evidence that a high level of political interest helps to reduce corruption within a society, while the effect of democracy upon corruption depends on property rights protection and income distribution. With the social economic approach, however, the thesis presents both cross-country and within-country evidence that the social interaction plays an important role in determining corruption. The thesis then continues by comprehensively evaluating the consequences of corruption in China. The study provides evidence that corruption can simultaneously have both positive and negative effects on economic development. And it also observes that corruption considerably increases the income inequality in China. Furthermore this study finds that corruption in China significantly distorts public expenditures. Local corruption is also observed to substantially reduce FDI in Chinese regions. Finally the study documents that corruption substantially aggravates pollution probably through a loosening of the environmental regulation, and that it also modifies the effects of trade openness and FDI on the stringency of environmental policy. Overall, this thesis adds to the current literature by a number of novel findings concerning both the causes and the consequences of corruption.