A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

Effective elements of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis: results of a novel type of subgroup analysis based on principal stratification

Background. Meta-analyses show that cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis (CBT-P) improves distressing positive symptoms. However, it is a complex intervention involving a range of techniques. No previous study has assessed the delivery of the different elements of treatment and their effect on outcome. Our aim was to assess the differential effect of type of treatment delivered on the effectiveness of CBT-P, using novel statistical methodology. Method. The Psychological Prevention of Relapse in Psychosis (PRP) trial was a multi-centre randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared CBT-P with treatment as usual (TAU). Therapy was manualized, and detailed evaluations of therapy delivery and client engagement were made. Follow-up assessments were made at 12 and 24 months. In a planned analysis, we applied principal stratification (involving structural equation modelling with finite mixtures) to estimate intention-to-treat (ITT) effects for subgroups of participants, defined by qualitative and quantitative differences in receipt of therapy, while maintaining the constraints of randomization. Results. Consistent delivery of full therapy, including specific cognitive and behavioural techniques, was associated with clinically and statistically significant increases in months in remission, and decreases in psychotic and affective symptoms. Delivery of partial therapy involving engagement and assessment was not effective. Conclusions. Our analyses suggest that CBT-P is of significant benefit on multiple outcomes to patients able to engage in the full range of therapy procedures. The novel statistical methods illustrated in this report have general application to the evaluation of heterogeneity in the effects of treatment.

Modelling of the natural chlorine cycling in a coniferous stand: implications for chlorine-36 behaviour in a contaminated forest environment

Considered as one of the most available radionuclide in soileplant system, 36Cl is of potential concern for long-term management of radioactive wastes, due to its high mobility and its long half-life. To evaluate the risk of dispersion and accumulation of 36Cl in the biosphere as a consequence of a potential contamination, there is a need for an appropriate understanding of the chlorine cycling dynamics in the ecosystems. To date, a small number of studies have investigated the chlorine transfer in the ecosystem including the transformation of chloride to organic chlorine but, to our knowledge, none have modelled this cycle. In this study, a model involving inorganic as well as organic pools in soils has been developed and parameterised to describe the biogeochemical fate of chlorine in a pine forest. The model has been evaluated for stable chlorine by performing a range of sensitivity analyses and by comparing the simulated to the observed values. Finally a range of contamination scenarios, which differ in terms of external supply, exposure time and source, has been simulated to estimate the possible accumulation of 36Cl within the different compartments of the coniferous stand. The sensitivity study supports the relevancy of the model and its compartments, and has highlighted the chlorine transfers affecting the most the residence time of chlorine in the stand. Compared to observations, the model simulates realistic values for the chlorine content within the different forest compartments. For both atmospheric and underground contamination scenarios most of the chlorine can be found in its organic form in the soil. However, in case of an underground source, about two times less chlorine accumulates in the system and proportionally more chlorine leaves the system through drainage than through volatilisation.

Rheological and thermal behaviour of poly(N-isopropylacrylamide)/alginate smart polymeric networks

Interpenetrating polymeric networks based on sodium alginate and poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAAm) covalently crosslinked with N,N′-methylenebisacrylamide have been investigated using rheology, thermogravimetry, differential scanning calorimetry, X-ray diffraction measurements and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). An improved elastic response of the samples with a higher PNIPAAm content and increased amount of crosslinking agent was found. The temperature-responsive behaviour of the hydrogel samples was evidenced by viscoelastic measurements performed at various temperatures. It is shown that the properties of these gels can be tuned according to composition, amount of crosslinking agent and temperature changes. X-ray scattering analysis revealed that the hydrophobic groups are locally segregated even in the swollen state whilst cryo-SEM showed the highly heterogeneous nature of the gels.

Orientational behaviour of thermotropic and lyotropic liquid crystal polymer systems under shear flow

A comparison is made of the development of global orientation during shearing of lyotropic solutions of hydroxypropylcellulose with that observed for the thermotropic phase of hydroxypropylcellulose. At shear rates the behaviour of the two systems is similar, both during steady-state shear, and in terms of relaxation following cessation of shear flow. At low shear rates, the levels of orientation observed for the thermotropic system are substantially greater than observed for the lyotropic solutions. The relationship of these differences to variations in molecular parameters, viscous stress and to director tumbling is discussed.

Liquid crystalline elastomers: the relationship between macroscopic behaviour and the level of backbone anisotropy

Nematic monodomain liquid crystalline elastomers have been prepared through in situ cross-linking of an acrylate based side-chain liquid crystalline polymer in a magnetic field. At the nematic–isotropic transition, the sample is found to undergo an anisotropic shape change. There is found to be an increase in dimensions perpendicular — and a decrease parallel — to the director, this is consistent with alignment of the polymer backbone parallel to the direction of mesogen alignment in the nematic state. From a quantitative investigation of this behaviour, we estimate the level of backbone anisotropy for the elastomer. As second measure of the backbone anisotropy, the monodomain sample was physically extended. We have investigated, in particular, the situation where a monodomain sample is deformed with the angle between the director and the extension direction approaching 90°. The behaviour on extension of these acrylate samples is related to alternative theoretical interpretations and the backbone anisotropy determined. Comparison of the chain anisotropy derived from these two approaches and the value obtained from previous small-angle neutron scattering measurements on deuterium labelled mixtures of the same polymer shows that some level of chain anisotropy is retained in the isotropic or more strictly weakly paranematic state of the elastomer. The origin and implications of this behaviour are discussed.

The influence of office location on commuting behaviour

To fully appreciate the environmental impact of an office building, the transport-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from its location should be considered in addition to the emissions that result from the operation of the building itself. Travel-related CO2 emissions are a function of three criteria, two of which are influenced by physical location and one of which is a function of business practice. The two spatial criteria are, first, the location of the office relative to the location of the workforce, the market, complementary business activities (and the agglomeration benefits this offers) and, second, the availability and cost of transport modes. The business criterion is the need for, and therefore frequency of, visits and this, in turn, depends on the requirement for a physically present workforce and face-to-face contact with clients. This paper examines the commuting-related CO2 emissions that result from city centre and out-of-town office locations. Using 2001 Census Special Workplace Statistics which record people’s residence, usual workplace and mode of transport between them, distance travelled and mode of travel were calculated for a sample of city centre and out-of-town office locations. The results reveal the extent of the difference between transport-related CO2 emitted by commuters to out-of-town and city centre locations. The implications that these findings have for monitoring the environmental performance of offices are discussed.

Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.