Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

KRAB-zinc finger proteins and KAP1 can mediate long-range transcriptional repression through heterochromatin spreading.

Krüppel-associated box domain-zinc finger proteins (KRAB-ZFPs) are tetrapod-specific transcriptional repressors encoded in the hundreds by the human genome. In order to explore their as yet ill-defined impact on gene expression, we developed an ectopic repressor assay, allowing the study of KRAB-mediated transcriptional regulation at hundreds of different transcriptional units. By targeting a drug-controllable KRAB-containing repressor to gene-trapping lentiviral vectors, we demonstrate that KRAB and its corepressor KAP1 can silence promoters located several tens of kilobases (kb) away from their DNA binding sites, with an efficiency which is generally higher for promoters located within 15 kb or less. Silenced promoters exhibit a loss of histone H3-acetylation, an increase in H3 lysine 9 trimethylation (H3K9me3), and a drop in RNA Pol II recruitment, consistent with a block of transcriptional initiation following the establishment of silencing marks. Furthermore, we reveal that KRAB-mediated repression is established by the long-range spreading of H3K9me3 and heterochromatin protein 1 beta (HP1beta) between the repressor binding site and the promoter. We confirm the biological relevance of this phenomenon by documenting KAP1-dependent transcriptional repression at an endogenous KRAB-ZFP gene cluster, where KAP1 binds to the 3' end of genes and mediates propagation of H3K9me3 and HP1beta towards their 5' end. Together, our data support a model in which KRAB/KAP1 recruitment induces long-range repression through the spread of heterochromatin. This finding not only suggests auto-regulatory mechanisms in the control of KRAB-ZFP gene clusters, but also provides important cues for interpreting future genome-wide DNA binding data of KRAB-ZFPs and KAP1.

High Range Water Reducer in Portland Cement Concrete Made with D-Cracking Susceptible Coarse Aggregate, HR-1021, 1980

The objective of this research was to determine of the use of High Range Water Reducers (HRWR) (resulting in a lower water content ratio) with a D-cracking susceptible crushed limestone coarse aggregate would yield significant improvement in the durability.

Estimation of the noisy component of anatomical backgrounds.

The knowledge of the relationship that links radiation dose and image quality is a prerequisite to any optimization of medical diagnostic radiology. Image quality depends, on the one hand, on the physical parameters such as contrast, resolution, and noise, and on the other hand, on characteristics of the observer that assesses the image. While the role of contrast and resolution is precisely defined and recognized, the influence of image noise is not yet fully understood. Its measurement is often based on imaging uniform test objects, even though real images contain anatomical backgrounds whose statistical nature is much different from test objects used to assess system noise. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the importance of variations in background anatomy by quantifying its effect on a series of detection tasks. Several types of mammographic backgrounds and signals were examined by psychophysical experiments in a two-alternative forced-choice detection task. According to hypotheses concerning the strategy used by the human observers, their signal to noise ratio was determined. This variable was also computed for a mathematical model based on the statistical decision theory. By comparing theoretical model and experimental results, the way that anatomical structure is perceived has been analyzed. Experiments showed that the observer's behavior was highly dependent upon both system noise and the anatomical background. The anatomy partly acts as a signal recognizable as such and partly as a pure noise that disturbs the detection process. This dual nature of the anatomy is quantified. It is shown that its effect varies according to its amplitude and the profile of the object being detected. The importance of the noisy part of the anatomy is, in some situations, much greater than the system noise. Hence, reducing the system noise by increasing the dose will not improve task performance. This observation indicates that the tradeoff between dose and image quality might be optimized by accepting a higher system noise. This could lead to a better resolution, more contrast, or less dose.

Influence of magnetic field strength and image registration strategy on voxel-based morphometry in a study of Alzheimer's disease.

Multi-centre data repositories like the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) offer a unique research platform, but pose questions concerning comparability of results when using a range of imaging protocols and data processing algorithms. The variability is mainly due to the non-quantitative character of the widely used structural T1-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) images. Although the stability of the main effect of Alzheimer's disease (AD) on brain structure across platforms and field strength has been addressed in previous studies using multi-site MR images, there are only sparse empirically-based recommendations for processing and analysis of pooled multi-centre structural MR data acquired at different magnetic field strengths (MFS). Aiming to minimise potential systematic bias when using ADNI data we investigate the specific contributions of spatial registration strategies and the impact of MFS on voxel-based morphometry in AD. We perform a whole-brain analysis within the framework of Statistical Parametric Mapping, testing for main effects of various diffeomorphic spatial registration strategies, of MFS and their interaction with disease status. Beyond the confirmation of medial temporal lobe volume loss in AD, we detect a significant impact of spatial registration strategy on estimation of AD related atrophy. Additionally, we report a significant effect of MFS on the assessment of brain anatomy (i) in the cerebellum, (ii) the precentral gyrus and (iii) the thalamus bilaterally, showing no interaction with the disease status. We provide empirical evidence in support of pooling data in multi-centre VBM studies irrespective of disease status or MFS.

Albedo and estimates of net radiation for green beans under polyethylene cover and field conditions

This paper describes the albedo (r) and estimates of net radiation and global solar irradiance for green beans crop (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cultivated in greenhouse with cover of polyethylene and field conditions, in Botucatu, SP, Brazil (22º 54' S; 48º 27' W; 850 m). The solar global irradiance (Rg) and solar reflected radiation (Rr) were used to estimate the albedo through the ratio between Rr and Rg. The diurnal curves of albedo were obtained for days with clear sky and partially cloudy conditions, for different phenological stages of the crop. The albedo ranged with the solar elevation, the environment and the phenological stages. The cloudiness range have almost no influence on the albedo diurnal amount. The estimation of radiation were made by linear regression, using the global solar irradiance (Rg) and net short-waves radiation (Rc) as independent variables. All estimates of radiation showed better adjustment for specific phenological periods compared to the entire crop growing cycle. The net radiation in the greenhouse has been estimated by the global solar irradiance measured at field conditions.

Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Long-term and long range migration of radioisotopes in terrestrial systems : mechanisms of radioisotopes (Cs, Sr, Pu, Am) mobilization in soils

Summary Artificial radionuclides were released in the environment during the atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and after accidental events involving nuclear industries. As a primary receptor of the deposition, the soil is a very sensitive compartment and understanding the interaction and migration of radionuclides within soils allows the development of scenario for the contamination risk of the population and of the environment. Most available field studies on radionuclides in soils only concern one or two isotopes, mostly 137Cs, and few physico-chemical soil parameters. The purpose of this study was a broader understanding of the radioecology of an Alpine valley. In a first part, we aimed to describe the depth distribution of 137Cs, 90Sr, 239+240Pu, and 241Am within different alpine soils and to identify some stable elements as indicators for accumulating layers. In the central part of the study, the goal was to investigate the repartition of ^Sr and 239Pu between the truly dissolved fraction and the colloidal fraction of the soil solutions and to identify the nature of colloids involved in the adsorption of ^Sr and 239Pu. These results were integrated in an "advection- sorption" transport model seeking to explain the migration of 239Pu and 90Sr within the soils and to assess the importance of colloidal transport for these two isotopes. A further aspect studied was the role of the competition between the radioisotopes (137Cs and 90Sr) and their stable chemical analogues (K and Ca) with respect to plant uptake by different plant species. The results on the depth distribution within the soils showed that 137Cs was mostly retained in the topsoil, to the exception of an organic-rich soil (Histosol 2) receiving important surface runoff, where migration down to a depth of 30 cm was observed. 137Cs depth distribution within the soils was similar to unsupported 210Pb depth distribution. The plant uptake of 137Cs clearly depended on the concentration of exchangeable potassium in the soils. Moreover, we showed that the 137Cs uptake by certain species of the taxonomic orders Poales and Rosales was more sensitive to the increase in exchangeable Κ compared to other orders. Strontium-90 was much more mobile in the soils than 137Cs and depth migration and accumulation in specific AI- and Fe-rich layers were found down to 30 cm. Copper and Ni showed accumulations in these same layers, indicating their potential to be used as indicators for the migration of ^Sr within the soils. In addition, we observed a 90Sr activity peak in the topsoil that can be attributable to recycling of 90Sr by plant uptake. We demonstrated for the first time that a part of 90Sr (at least 40%) was associated with the colloids in organic-rich soil solutions. Therefore, we predict a significant effect of the colloidal migration of ^Sr in organic-rich soil solutions. The plant uptake results for 90Sr indicated a phylogenetic effect between Non-Eudicot and Eudicots: the order Poales concentrating much less 90Sr than Eudicots do. Moreover, we were able to demonstrate that the sensitivity of the 90Sr uptake by 5 different Alpine plant species to the amount of exchangeable Ca was species-independent. Plutonium and 241Am accumulated in the second layer of all soils and only a slight migration deeper than 20 cm was observed. Plutonium and 241Am showed a similar depth distribution in the soils. The model results suggested that the present day migration of 239Pu was very slow and that the uptake by plants was negligible. 239Pu activities between 0.01 to 0.08 mBq/L were measured in the bulk soil solutions. Migration of 239Pu with the soil solution is dominated by colloidal transport. We reported strong evidences that humic substances were responsible of the sorption of 239Pu to the colloidal fraction of the soil solutions. This was reflected by the strong correlation between 239Pu concentrations and the content of (colloidal) organic matter in the soil solution. Résumé Certains radioéléments artificiels ont été disséminés dans l'environnement suite aux essais atmosphériques de bombes nucléaires et suite à des accidents impliquant les industries nucléaires. En tant que récepteur primaire de la déposition, le sol est un compartiment sensible et des connaissances sur les interactions et la migration des radioéléments dans le sol permettent de développer des modèles pour estimer la contamination de la population et de l'environnement. Actuellement, la plupart des études de terrain sur ce sujet concernent uniquement un ou deux radioéléments, surtout le 137Cs et peu d'études intègrent les paramètres du sol pour expliquer la migration des radioéléments. Le but général de cette étude était une compréhension étendue de la radio-écologie d'une vallée alpine. Notre premier objectif était de décrire la distribution en profondeur de 137Cs, ^Sr, 239+240pu et 241Am dans différents sols alpins en relation avec des éléments stables du sol, dans le but d'identifier des éléments stables qui pourraient servir d'indicateurs pour des horizons accumulateurs. L'objectif de la deuxième partie, qui était la partie centrale de l'étude, était d'estimer le pourcentage d'activité sous forme colloïdale du 239Pu et du 90Sr dans les solutions des sols. De plus nous avons déterminé la nature des colloïdes impliqués dans la fixation du ^Sr et 239Pu. Nous avons ensuite intégré ces résultats dans un modèle de transport développé dans le but de décrire la migration du 239Pu et 90Sr dans le sol. Finalement, nous avons étudié l'absorption de 137Cs et 90Sr par les plantes en fonction de l'espèce et de la compétition avec leur élément analogue stable (K et Ca). Les résultats sur la migration en profondeur du 137Cs ont montré que ce radioélément était généralement retenu en surface, à l'exception d'un sol riche en matière organique dans lequel nous avons observé une nette migration en profondeur. Dans tous les sols, la distribution en profondeur du 137Cs était corrélée avec la distribution du 210Pb. L'absorption du 137Cs par les plantes, était dépendante de la concentration en Κ échangeable dans le sol, le potassium étant un compétiteur. De plus, nous avons observé que les espèces ne réagissaient pas de la même manière aux variations de la concentration de Κ échangeable. En effet, les espèces appartenant aux ordres des Poales et des Rosales étaient plus sensibles aux variations de potassium échangeable dans le sol. Dans tous les sols Le 90Sr était beaucoup plus mobile que le 137Cs. En effet, nous avons observé des accumulations de 90Sr dans des horizons riches en Fe et Al jusqu'à 30 cm de profondeur. De plus, le Cu et le Ni montraient des accumulations dans les mêmes horizons que le 90Sr, indiquant qu'il pourrait être possible d'utiliser ces deux éléments comme analogues pour la migration du 90Sr. D'après le modèle développé, le pic de 90Sr dans les premiers centimètres du sol peut être attribué à du recyclage par les plantes. Le 90Sr en solution était principalement sous forme dissoute dans des solutions de sols peu organique (entre 60 et 100% de 90Sr dissous). Par contre, dans des solutions organiques, un important pourcentage de 90Sr (plus de 40%) était associé aux colloïdes. La migration colloïdale du 90Sr peut donc être significative dans des solutions organiques. Comme pour le 137Cs, l'absorption du 90Sr par les plantes dépendait de la concentration de son analogue chimique dans la fraction échangeable du sol. Par contre, les espèces de plantes étudiées avaient la même sensibilité aux variations de la concentration du calcium échangeable. Le plutonium et l'américium étaient accumulés dans le deuxième horizon du sol et nous avons observé seulement une faible migration plus profondément que 20 cm. Selon le modèle, la migration actuelle du plutonium est très lente et l'absorption par les plantes semble négligeable. Nous avons mesuré entre 0.01 et 0.08 mBq/L de 239Pu dans les solutions de sol brutes. La migration du plutonium par la solution du sol est due principalement aux colloïdes, probablement de nature humique. Résumé grand public Dans les années 1950 à 1960, l'environnement a été contaminé par des éléments radioactifs (radioéléments) artificiels provenant des essais des armes atomiques et de l'industrie nucléaire. En effet, durant ces années, les premiers essais de bombes atomiques se faisaient dans l'atmosphère, libérant de grandes quantités d'éléments radioactifs. De plus certains accidents impliquant l'industrie nucléaire civile ont contribué à la dissémination d'éléments radioactifs dans l'environnement. Ce fut par exemple le cas de l'accident de la centrale atomique de Tchernobyl en 1986 qui a causé une importante contamination d'une grande partie de l'Europe par le 137Cs. Lorsqu'ils sont libérés dans l'atmosphère, les radioéléments sont dispersés et transportés par les courants atmosphériques, puis peuvent être déposés dans l'environnement, principalement par les précipitations. Une fois déposés sur le sol, les radioéléments vont interagir avec les composants du sol et migrer plus ou moins vite. La connaissance des interactions des éléments radioactifs avec le sol est donc importante pour prédire les risques de contamination de l'environnement et de l'homme. Le but général de ce travail était d'évaluer la migration de différents éléments radioactifs (césium-137, strontium-90, plutonium et américium-241) à travers le sol. Nous avons choisi un site d'étude en milieu alpin (Val Piora, Tessin, Suisse), contaminé en radioéléments principalement par les retombées de l'accident de Tchernobyl et des essais atmosphériques de bombes atomiques. Dans un premier temps, nous avons caractérisé la distribution en profondeur des éléments radioactifs dans le sol et l'avons comparée à divers éléments stables. Cette comparaison nous a permit de remarquer que le cuivre et le nickel s'accumulaient dans les mêmes horizons du sol que le strontium-90 et pourraient donc être utilisés comme analogue pour la migration du strontium-90 dans les sols. Dans la plupart des sols étudiés, la migration du césium-137, du plutonium et de l'américium-241 était lente et ces radioéléments étaient donc accumulés dans les premiers centimètres du sol. Par contre, le strontium-90 a migré beaucoup plus rapidement que les autres radioéléments si bien qu'on observe des accumulations de strontium-90 à plus de 30 cm de profondeur. Les radioéléments migrent dans la solution du sol soit sous forme dissoute, soit sous forme colloïdale, c'est-à-dire associés à des particules de diamètre < Ιμηι. Cette association avec des colloïdes permet à des radioéléments peu solubles, comme le plutonium, de migrer plus rapidement qu'attendu. Nous avons voulu savoir quelle était la part de strontium-90 et plutonium associés à des colloïdes dans la solution du sol. Les résultats ont montré que le plutonium en solution était principalement associé à des colloïdes de type organique. Quant au strontium-90, ce dernier était en partie associé à des colloïdes dans des solutions de sol riches en matière organique, par contre, il était principalement sous forme dissoute dans les solutions de sol peu organiques. L'absorption de radioéléments par les plantes représente une voie importante pour le transfert vers la chaîne alimentaire, par conséquent pour la contamination de l'homme. Nous avons donc étudié le transfert du césium-137 et du strontium-90 de plusieurs sols vers différentes espèces de plantes. Les résultats ont montré que l'absorption des radioéléments par les plantes était liée à la concentration de leur analogue chimique (calcium pour le strontium-90 et potassium pour le césium- 137) dans la fraction échangeable du sol. De plus certaines espèces de plantes accumulent significativement moins de strontium-90.

Assessment of emotional reactivity produced by exposure to virtual environments in patients with eating disorders

The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of virtual environments representing situations that are emotionally significant to subjects with eating disorders (ED). These environments may be applied with both evaluative and therapeutic aims and in simulation procedures to carry out a range of experimental studies. This paper is part of a wider research project analyzing the influence of the situation to which subjects are exposed on their performance on body image estimation tasks. Thirty female patients with eating disorders were exposed to six virtual environments: a living-room (neutral situation), a kitchen with highcalorie food, a kitchen with low-calorie food, a restaurant with high-calorie food, a restaurant with low-calorie food, and a swimming-pool. After exposure to each environment the STAI-S (a measurement of state anxiety) and the CDB (a measurement of depression) were administered to all subjects. The results show that virtual reality instruments are particularly useful for simulating everyday situations that may provoke emotional reactions such as anxiety and depression, in patients with ED. Virtual environments in which subjects are obliged to ingest high-calorie food provoke the highest levels of state anxiety and depression.

Calculation of wood volume and stem taper using terrestrial single-image close-range photogrammetry and contemporary software tools

Abstract

Construction of a Bridge Floor Using High Range Water Reducer, Construction Report, HR-192, 1978

The use of a high range water reducer in bridge floors was initiated by an Iowa Highway Research Board project (HR-192) in 1977 for two basic reasons. One was to determine the feasibility of using a high range water reducer (HRWR) in bridge floor concrete using conventional concrete proportioning, transporting and finishing equipment. The second was to determine the performance and protective qualities against chloride intrusion of a dense concrete bridge floor by de-icing agents used on Iowa's highways during winter months. This project was basically intended to overcome some problems that developed in the original research project. The problems alluded to are the time limits from batching to finishing; use of a different type of finishing machine; need for supplemental vibration on the surface of the concrete during the screeding operation and difficulty of texturing. The use of a double oscillating screed finishing machine worked well and supplemental vibration on one of the screeds was not needed. The limit of 45 minutes from batching the concrete to placement on the deck was verified. This is a maximum when the HRWR is introduced at the batch plant. The problem of texturing was not solved completely but is similar to our problems on the dense "Iowa System" overlay used on bridge deck repair projects. This project reinforced some earlier doubts about using truck transit mixers for mixing and transporting concrete containing HRWR when introduced at the batch plant.

Comparison of methods for estimation of needle losses in Scots pine following defoliation by Bupalus piniaria

Abstract

Visibility and Speed Estimation of Iowa State Highway Commission Snowplows, HR-174, 1975

Many accidents involving Iowa snowplows have happened in recent years. This study investigated the influence of time of day, sex of subject, type of snowplow sign and snowplow speed on the criteria of oncoming driver reaction time and his estimate of snowplow speed. Film strips were made of a car passing a snow-Plow under various experimental conditions. These experimental movie strips were viewed in the laboratory by college student drivers who were asked to indicate their reaction time to slow down and to estimate the speed of the snowplow being passed. The generally best sign condition for the snowplow was to have a striped rear sign and a speed-proportional flashing light in addition to the standard rotating beacon on top of the truck. Several recommendations were made.

Geographic variation of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula Hermann, 1780 Mammalia, Soricidae)

A multivariate morphometric study of the Greater white-toothed shrew (C. russula) throughout its Palearctic range was carried out to search for patterns of geographic variation within the species boundary. Burnaby's and multiple group principal component analysis allowed the adjustment of raw data with respect to within-sample allometric variation. Multivariate 'size-free' results show a stepped dine with the phenotypical trait reduction and shape change from the eastern to the western Maghreb. Pleistocene fossil mandibles proved to have low phenetic distances with eastern populations (Tunisia, east Algeria) and it is argued that their character set is the primitive condition. The ancestral Mid-Pleistocene shrews lived in a relatively more humid climate. Gee-climatic changes in the north African range during the Quaternary provoked phenetic variation of C. russula and, it can be argued, evolution of the modern western C.r. yebalensis. A historical process can thus be assumed as the main cause of this categorical variation, by segmentation of the species range due to gee-climatic events. Morphometric discontinuity within the C. russula Maghreb range is shown to be congruent with karyological and biochemical studies. Moroccan and Tunisian shrews differ, for example, in NFa chromosomes and electrophoretical traits. A stasipatric process should be invoked to explain categorical variation in the Maghreb range. Colonization and divergence of insular populations results in more or less differentiated geographic races. The populations of Ibiza and Pantelleria are close to the species threshold (Nei's D greater than or equal to 0.1). The process of speciation undergone by the Greater white-toothed shrew results in a complex pattern of geographic variation, including both allopatric and non-allopatric modes.