A soft robust model for optimization under ambiguity

In this paper, we propose a framework for robust optimization that relaxes the standard notion of robustness by allowing the decision maker to vary the protection level in a smooth way across the uncertainty set. We apply our approach to the problem of maximizing the expected value of a payoff function when the underlying distribution is ambiguous and therefore robustness is relevant. Our primary objective is to develop this framework and relate it to the standard notion of robustness, which deals with only a single guarantee across one uncertainty set. First, we show that our approach connects closely to the theory of convex risk measures. We show that the complexity of this approach is equivalent to that of solving a small number of standard robust problems. We then investigate the conservatism benefits and downside probability guarantees implied by this approach and compare to the standard robust approach. Finally, we illustrate theme thodology on an asset allocation example consisting of historical market data over a 25-year investment horizon and find in every case we explore that relaxing standard robustness with soft robustness yields a seemingly favorable risk-return trade-off: each case results in a higher out-of-sample expected return for a relatively minor degradation of out-of-sample downside performance. © 2010 INFORMS.

Perceived acceptability of home-based couples voluntary HIV counseling and testing in Northern Tanzania.

It is estimated that 5.6% of the Tanzanian population ages 15-49 are infected with HIV, but only 30% of adults have ever had an HIV test. Couples' testing has proven to increase testing coverage and introduce HIV prevention, but barriers include access to testing services and unequal gender dynamics in relationships. Innovative approaches are needed to address barriers to couple's testing and increase uptake of HIV testing. Using qualitative data collection methods, a formative study was conducted to assess the acceptability of a home-based couples counseling and testing (HBCCT) approach. Eligible study participants included married men and women, HIV-infected individuals, health care and home-based care providers, voluntary counseling and testing counselors, and community leaders. A total of 91 individuals participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews conducted between September 2009 and January 2010 in rural settings in Northern Tanzania. An HBCCT intervention appears to be broadly acceptable among participants. Benefits of HBCCT were identified in terms of access, confidentiality, and strengthening the relationship. Fears of negative consequences from knowing one's HIV status, including stigma, blame, physical abuse, or divorce, remain a concern and a potential barrier to the successful provision of the intervention. Lessons for implementation highlighted the importance of appointments for home visits, building relationships of confidence and trust between counselors and clients, and assessing and responding to a couple's readiness to undergo HIV testing. HBCCT should addresses HIV stigma, emphasize confidentiality, and improve communication skills for disclosure and decision-making among couples.

Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity.

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Impact of a Point-of-Care Rapid Influenza Test on Antibiotic Prescribing Patterns in Southern Sri Lanka

Background: Acute febrile respiratory illnesses, including influenza, account for a large proportion of ambulatory care visits worldwide. In the developed world, these encounters commonly result in unwarranted antibiotic prescriptions; data from more resource-limited settings are lacking. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiology of influenza among outpatients in southern Sri Lanka and to determine if access to rapid influenza test results was associated with decreased antibiotic prescriptions.

Methods: In this pretest- posttest study, consecutive patients presenting from March 2013- April 2014 to the Outpatient Department of the largest tertiary care hospital in southern Sri Lanka were surveyed for influenza-like illness (ILI). Patients meeting World Health Organization criteria for ILI-- acute onset of fever ≥38.0°C and cough in the prior 7 days--were enrolled. Consenting patients were administered a structured questionnaire, physical examination, and nasal/nasopharyngeal sampling. Rapid influenza A/B testing (Veritor System, Becton Dickinson) was performed on all patients, but test results were only released to patients and clinicians during the second phase of the study (December 2013- April 2014).

Results: We enrolled 397 patients with ILI, with 217 (54.7%) adults ≥12 years and 188 (47.4%) females. A total of 179 (45.8%) tested positive for influenza by rapid testing, with April- July 2013 and September- November 2013 being the periods with the highest proportion of ILI due to influenza. A total of 310 (78.1%) patients with ILI received a prescription for an antibiotic from their outpatient provider. The proportion of patients prescribed antibiotics decreased from 81.4% in the first phase to 66.3% in the second phase (p=.005); among rapid influenza-positive patients, antibiotic prescriptions decreased from 83.7% in the first phase to 56.3% in the second phase (p=.001). On multivariable analysis, having a positive rapid influenza test available to clinicians was associated with decreased antibiotic use (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.05- 0.82).

Conclusions: Influenza virus accounted for almost 50% of acute febrile respiratory illness in this study, but most patients were prescribed antibiotics. Providing rapid influenza test results to clinicians was associated with fewer antibiotic prescriptions, but overall prescription of antibiotics remained high. In this developing country setting, a multi-faceted approach that includes improved access to rapid diagnostic tests may help decrease antibiotic use and combat antimicrobial resistance.

CD4 enumeration technologies: a systematic review of test performance for determining eligibility for antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of CD4+ T-lymphocytes (CD4) is a crucial parameter in the management of HIV patients, particularly in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral treatment (ART). A number of technologies exist for CD4 enumeration, with considerable variation in cost, complexity, and operational requirements. We conducted a systematic review of the performance of technologies for CD4 enumeration. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Studies were identified by searching electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE using a pre-defined search strategy. Data on test accuracy and precision included bias and limits of agreement with a reference standard, and misclassification probabilities around CD4 thresholds of 200 and 350 cells/μl over a clinically relevant range. The secondary outcome measure was test imprecision, expressed as % coefficient of variation. Thirty-two studies evaluating 15 CD4 technologies were included, of which less than half presented data on bias and misclassification compared to the same reference technology. At CD4 counts <350 cells/μl, bias ranged from -35.2 to +13.1 cells/μl while at counts >350 cells/μl, bias ranged from -70.7 to +47 cells/μl, compared to the BD FACSCount as a reference technology. Misclassification around the threshold of 350 cells/μl ranged from 1-29% for upward classification, resulting in under-treatment, and 7-68% for downward classification resulting in overtreatment. Less than half of these studies reported within laboratory precision or reproducibility of the CD4 values obtained. CONCLUSIONS: A wide range of bias and percent misclassification around treatment thresholds were reported on the CD4 enumeration technologies included in this review, with few studies reporting assay precision. The lack of standardised methodology on test evaluation, including the use of different reference standards, is a barrier to assessing relative assay performance and could hinder the introduction of new point-of-care assays in countries where they are most needed.

Frontal eye field neurons assess visual stability across saccades.

The image on the retina may move because the eyes move, or because something in the visual scene moves. The brain is not fooled by this ambiguity. Even as we make saccades, we are able to detect whether visual objects remain stable or move. Here we test whether this ability to assess visual stability across saccades is present at the single-neuron level in the frontal eye field (FEF), an area that receives both visual input and information about imminent saccades. Our hypothesis was that neurons in the FEF report whether a visual stimulus remains stable or moves as a saccade is made. Monkeys made saccades in the presence of a visual stimulus outside of the receptive field. In some trials, the stimulus remained stable, but in other trials, it moved during the saccade. In every trial, the stimulus occupied the center of the receptive field after the saccade, thus evoking a reafferent visual response. We found that many FEF neurons signaled, in the strength and timing of their reafferent response, whether the stimulus had remained stable or moved. Reafferent responses were tuned for the amount of stimulus translation, and, in accordance with human psychophysics, tuning was better (more prevalent, stronger, and quicker) for stimuli that moved perpendicular, rather than parallel, to the saccade. Tuning was sometimes present as well for nonspatial transaccadic changes (in color, size, or both). Our results indicate that FEF neurons evaluate visual stability during saccades and may be general purpose detectors of transaccadic visual change.

Application of a rank-based genetic association test to age-at-onset data from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism study.

Association studies of quantitative traits have often relied on methods in which a normal distribution of the trait is assumed. However, quantitative phenotypes from complex human diseases are often censored, highly skewed, or contaminated with outlying values. We recently developed a rank-based association method that takes into account censoring and makes no distributional assumptions about the trait. In this study, we applied our new method to age-at-onset data on ALDX1 and ALDX2. Both traits are highly skewed (skewness > 1.9) and often censored. We performed a whole genome association study of age at onset of the ALDX1 trait using Illumina single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Only slightly more than 5% of markers were significant. However, we identified two regions on chromosomes 14 and 15, which each have at least four significant markers clustering together. These two regions may harbor genes that regulate age at onset of ALDX1 and ALDX2. Future fine mapping of these two regions with densely spaced markers is warranted.

Tuberculin skin test versus blood immunologic diagnosis of latent mycobacterium tuberclosis infection among old subjects

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Contribution of a heparin-binding haemagglutinin interferon-gamma release assay to the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in HIV-infected patients: comparison with the tuberculin skin test and the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube.

The screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection reduces the risk of progression to active disease and is currently recommended for HIV-infected patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate, in a low TB incidence setting, the potential contribution of an interferon-gamma release assay in response to the mycobacterial latency antigen Heparin-Binding Haemagglutinin (HBHA-IGRA), to the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in HIV-infected patients.

Análisis estadístico de un test de conocimientos previos de matemáticas para ingresantes universitarios

En este trabajo presentamos un análisis estadístico del Test de Conocimientos Previos de Matemáticas (TCPM) diseñado para medir el estado inicial de destrezas y conocimientos básicos en matemáticas de los alumnos ingresantes a carreras científico-tecnológicas de la Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales de la Universidad Nacional de San Luis. El objetivo de la investigación está centrado en observar el diagnóstico utilizado, con miras a una eventual utilización posterior. Para determinar la bondad de la prueba realizamos un análisis de la calidad, discriminación e índice de dificultad de los ítems, así como de la validez y confiabilidad del diagnóstico, para este análisis estadístico empleamos los programas TestGraf y SPSS. El test se aplicó a 698 estudiantes ingresantes a la Universidad en el ciclo lectivo 2002. De la investigación pudimos inferir que el diagnóstico resultó: difícil para la población de aplicación; de confiabilidad aceptable, y de buena calidad de items, con variada dificultad y aceptable discriminación.

Simulating one of the CIB W14 round robin test cases using the SMARTFIRE fire field model

Numerical predictions produced by the SMARTFIRE fire field model are compared with experimental data. The predictions consist of gas temperatures at several locations within the compartment over a 60 min period. The test fire, produced by a burning wood crib attained a maximum heat release rate of approximately 11MW. The fire is intended to represent a nonspreading fire (i.e. single fuel source) in a moderately sized ventilated room. The experimental data formed part of the CIB Round Robin test series. Two simulations are produced, one involving a relatively coarse mesh and the other with a finer mesh. While the SMARTFIRE simulations made use of a simple volumetric heat release rate model, both simulations were found capable of reproducing the overall qualitative results. Both simulations tended to overpredict the measured temperatures. However, the finer mesh simulation was better able to reproduce the qualitative features of the experimental data. The maximum recorded experimental temperature (12141C after 39 min) was over-predicted in the fine mesh simulation by 12%. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and experiments on an isothermal fatigue test for solder joints

This paper investigates an isothermal fatigue test for solder joints developed at the NPL. The test specimen is a lap joint between two copper arms. During the test the displacement at the ends of the copper are controlled and the force measured. The modeling results in the paper show that the displacement across the solder joint is not equal to the displacement applied at the end of the specimen. This is due to deformation within the copper arms. A method is described to compensate for this difference. The strain distribution in the solder was determined by finite element analysis and compared to the distribution generated by a theoretical 'ideal' test which generates an almost pure shear mode in the solder. By using a damage-based constitutive law the shape of the crack generated in the specimen has been predicted for both the actual test and the ideal pure shear test. Results from the simulations are also compared with experimental data using SnAgCu solder.