A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

Investigation into the transport, behaviour and deposition of combustion aerosols from transport sources

The deterioration of air quality is a significant issue in large and growing cities. This work investigates particulate emissions from transport, the largest source of air pollution in cities today. Emitters such as busy roads and diesel trains are investigated, with specific reference to the evolution of particles over time and distance. Diesel trains are investigated as an alternative to road traffic in investigating evolutionary processes. Higher emissions and solitary sources mean that the emitted plume can be observed over time in a single location. These results represent the first investigation of the evolution of fine and ultrafine aerosol particles from this type of source. Aerosols near a busy road are investigated, with the result that a dependence of total number concentration on distance from the road is shown to be related to the fragmentation of nanoparticle clusters. Local meteorological conditions are also monitored and humidity is shown to vary with distance from the road in a nonmonotonic way. Particles from a busy road were also examined using a scanning electron microscope, with the intention of understanding the make up of the emitted aerosol plume. It was determined that due to significant surface behaviour post-deposition, this method of analysis could not directly classify airborne pollutants. Some interesting results were obtained however, particularly in terms of composite particles and the analysis of deposited patterns. This thesis introduces new work in terms of the analysis of diesel train particulate emissions, as well as adding further evidence towards the fragmentation process of aerosol evolution in both background concentrations and emitted aerosol plumes.

Fast detection of exact clones in business process model repositories

As organizations reach higher levels of business process management maturity, they often find themselves maintaining very large process model repositories, representing valuable knowledge about their operations. A common practice within these repositories is to create new process models, or extend existing ones, by copying and merging fragments from other models. We contend that if these duplicate fragments, a.k.a. ex- act clones, can be identified and factored out as shared subprocesses, the repository’s maintainability can be greatly improved. With this purpose in mind, we propose an indexing structure to support fast detection of clones in process model repositories. Moreover, we show how this index can be used to efficiently query a process model repository for fragments. This index, called RPSDAG, is based on a novel combination of a method for process model decomposition (namely the Refined Process Structure Tree), with established graph canonization and string matching techniques. We evaluated the RPSDAG with large process model repositories from industrial practice. The experiments show that a significant number of non-trivial clones can be efficiently found in such repositories, and that fragment queries can be handled efficiently.

Approximate clone detection in repositories of business process models

Evidence exists that repositories of business process models used in industrial practice contain significant amounts of duplication. This duplication may stem from the fact that the repository describes variants of the same pro- cesses and/or because of copy/pasting activity throughout the lifetime of the repository. Previous work has put forward techniques for identifying duplicate fragments (clones) that can be refactored into shared subprocesses. However, these techniques are limited to finding exact clones. This paper analyzes the prob- lem of approximate clone detection and puts forward two techniques for detecting clusters of approximate clones. Experiments show that the proposed techniques are able to accurately retrieve clusters of approximate clones that originate from copy/pasting followed by independent modifications to the copied fragments.

Factors of process model comprehension : findings from a series of experiments

In order to make good decisions about the design of information systems, an essential skill is to understand process models of the business domain the system is intended to support. Yet, little knowledge to date has been established about the factors that affect how model users comprehend the content of process models. In this study, we use theories of semiotics and cognitive load to theorize how model and personal factors influence how model viewers comprehend the syntactical information of process models. We then report on a four-part series of experiments, in which we examined these factors. Our results show that additional semantical information impedes syntax comprehension, and that theoretical knowledge eases syntax comprehension. Modeling experience further contributes positively to comprehension efficiency, measured as the ratio of correct answers to the time taken to provide answers. We discuss implications for practice and research.

Does venture opportunity variation matter? Investigating systemic process differences between innovative and imitative new ventures

The central thesis in the article is that the venture creation process is different for innovative versus imitative ventures. This holds up; the pace of the process differs by type of venture as do, in line with theory-based hypotheses, the effects of certain human capital (HC) and social capital (SC) predictors. Importantly, and somewhat unexpectedly, the theoretically derived models using HC, SC, and certain controls are relatively successful explaining progress in the creation process for the minority of innovative ventures, but achieve very limited success for the imitative majority. This may be due to a rationalistic bias in conventional theorizing and suggests that there is need for considerable theoretical development regarding the important phenomenon of new venture creation processes. Another important result is that the building up of instrumental social capital, which we assess comprehensively and as a time variant construct, is important for making progress with both types of ventures, and increasingly, so as the process progresses. This result corroborates with stronger operationalization and more appropriate analysis method what previously published research has only been able to hint at.

A software framework for risk-aware business process management

With the large diffusion of Business Process Managemen (BPM) automation suites, the possibility of managing process-related risks arises. This paper introduces an innovative framework for process-related risk management and describes a working implementation realized by extending the YAWL system. The framework covers three aspects of risk management: risk monitoring, risk prevention, and risk mitigation. Risk monitoring functionality is provided using a sensor-based architecture, where sensors are defined at design time and used at run-time for monitoring purposes. Risk prevention functionality is provided in the form of suggestions about what should be executed, by who, and how, through the use of decision trees. Finally, risk mitigation functionality is provided as a sequence of remedial actions (e.g. reallocating, skipping, rolling back of a work item) that should be executed to restore the process to a normal situation.

Online retailing versus traditional stores in the purchasing decision making process

Due to proliferation of online stores prior expectations that retailing would move completely online were not fulfilled. Previous research about consumers’ preference of retailing channels suggested that online sales are driven by the convenience of online shopping, or as a natural extension of online searches. This paradigm has changed over the years. Changes in consumer behaviour are indicating that while consumers are searching online using various information sources to learn about products, ultimately when purchasing, consumers are shifting between online and offline retailing channels depending on various factors. Online shopping is still considered to be a convenient way to purchase goods, but the convenience is not the key factor. This qualitative research is based on 22 in-depth interviews with shoppers in Australia.

Conflict or consensus : an investigation of stakeholder concerns during the participation process of major infrastructure and construction projects in Hong Kong

Public participate in the planning and design of major public infrastructure and construction (PIC) projects is crucial to their success, as the interests of different stakeholders can be systematically captured and built into the finalised scheme. However, public participation may not always yield a mutually acceptable solution, especially when the interests of stakeholders are diverse and conflicting. Confrontations and disputes can arise unless the concerns or needs of the community are carefully analysed and addressed. The aim of the paper is to propose a systematic method of analysing stakeholder concerns relating to PIC projects by examining the degree of consensus and/or conflict involved. The results of a questionnaire survey and a series of interviews with different entities are provided, which indicate the existence of a significant divergence of views among stakeholder groups and that conflicts arise when there is a mismatch between peoples’ perception concerning money and happiness on the one hand and development and damages on the other. Policy and decision-makers should strive to resolve at least the majority of conflicts that arise throughout the lifecycle of major PIC projects so as to maximise their chance of success.

The taxation of multinational banks : alternative apportionment through a unitary taxation regime aligning with economic reality

The taxation of multinational banks currently is governed by the general principles of international tax. However, it is arguable that there are characteristics exclusive to multinational banks that may warrant the consideration of a separate taxing regime. This article argues that because of the unique nature of multinational banks, the traditional international tax rules governing jurisdiction to tax and allocation of income do not produce a result which is optimal, as it does not reflect economic reality. That is, the current system does not produce a result that accurately reflects the economic source of the income or the location of the economic activity. The suggested alternative is unitary taxation using global formulary apportionment. Formulary apportionment is considered as an alternative that reflects economic reality by recognising the unique nature of multinational banks and allocating the income to the location of the economic activity. The unique nature of multinational banking is recognised in the fact that formulary apportionment does not attempt to undertake a transactional division of a highly integrated multinational entity. Rather, it allocates income to the jurisdictions based on an economically justifiable formula. Starting from this recognition, the purpose of this article is to demonstrate that formulary apportionment is a theoretically superior (or optimal) model for the taxation of multinational banks. An optimal regime, for the purposes of this article, is considered to be one that distributes the taxing rights in an equitable manner between the relevant jurisdictions, while, simultaneously allowing decisions of the international banks to be tax neutral. In this sense, neutrality is viewed as an economic concept and equity is regarded as a legal concept. A neutral tax system is one in which tax rules do not affect economic choices about commercial activities. Neutrality will ideally be across jurisdictions as well as across traditional and non-traditional industries. The primary focus of this article is jurisdictional neutrality. A system that distributes taxing rights in an equitable manner between the relevant jurisdictions ensures that each country receives its fair share of tax revenue. Given the increase in multinational banking, jurisdictions should be concerned that they are receiving their fair share. Inter-nation equity is concerned with re-determining the proper division of the tax base among countries. Richard and Peggy Musgrave argue that sharing of the tax base by countries of source should be seen as a matter of inter-nation equity requiring international cooperation. The rights of the jurisdiction of residency will also be at issue. To this extent, while it is agreed that inter-nation equity is an essential attribute to an international tax regime, there is no universal agreement as to how to achieve it. The current system attempts to achieve such equity through a combined residency and source regime, with the transfer pricing rules used to apportion income between the relevant jurisdictions. However, this article suggests, that as an alternative to the current regime, equity would be achieved through formulary apportionment. Opposition to formulary apportionment is generally based on the argument that it is not a theoretically superior (or optimal) model because of the implementation difficulties. Yet these are two separate issues. As such, this article is divided into two core parts. The first part examines the theoretical soundness of the formulary apportionment model concluding that it is theoretically superior to the arm’s length pricing requirement of the traditional transfer pricing regime. The second part examines the practical implications of accepting formulary apportionment as an optimal model with a view to disclosing the issues that arise when a formulary apportionment regime is adopted. Prior to an analysis of the theoretical and practical application of formulary apportionment to multinational banks, the unique nature of these banks is considered. The article concludes that, while there are significant implementation, compliance, and enforcement issues to overcome, the unitary taxation model may be theoretically superior to the current arm’s length model which applies to multinational banks. This conclusion is based on the unitary taxation model providing greater alignment with the unique features of these banks.

Modelling the interaction of keratinocytes and fibroblasts during normal and abnormal wound healing processes

The crosstalk between fibroblasts and keratinocytes is a vital component of the wound healing process, and involves the activity of a number of growth factors and cytokines. In this work, we develop a mathematical model of this crosstalk in order to elucidate the effects of these interactions on the regeneration of collagen in a wound that heals by second intention. We consider the role of four components that strongly affect this process: transforming growth factor-beta, platelet-derived growth factor, interleukin-1 and keratinocyte growth factor. The impact of this network of interactions on the degradation of an initial fibrin clot, as well as its subsequent replacement by a matrix that is mainly comprised of collagen, is described through an eight-component system of nonlinear partial differential equations. Numerical results, obtained in a two-dimensional domain, highlight key aspects of this multifarious process such as reepithelialisation. The model is shown to reproduce many of the important features of normal wound healing. In addition, we use the model to simulate the treatment of two pathological cases: chronic hypoxia, which can lead to chronic wounds; and prolonged inflammation, which has been shown to lead to hypertrophic scarring. We find that our model predictions are qualitatively in agreement with previously reported observations, and provide an alternative pathway for gaining insight into this complex biological process.

Information sharing in Onesocialweb using a multiple profile manager to better informed medical decision making processes

The study shows an alternative solution to existing efforts at solving the problem of how to centrally manage and synchronise users’ Multiple Profiles (MP) across multiple discrete social networks. Most social network users hold more than one social network account and utilise them in different ways depending on the digital context (Iannella, 2009a). They may, for example, enjoy friendly chat on Facebook1, professional discussion on LinkedIn2, and health information exchange on PatientsLikeMe3 In this thesis the researcher proposes a framework for the management of a user’s multiple online social network profiles. A demonstrator, called Multiple Profile Manager (MPM), will be showcased to illustrate how effective the framework will be. The MPM will achieve the required profile management and synchronisation using a free, open, decentralized social networking platform (OSW) that was proposed by the Vodafone Group in 2010. The proposed MPM will enable a user to create and manage an integrated profile (IP) and share/synchronise this profile with all their social networks. The necessary protocols to support the prototype are also proposed by the researcher. The MPM protocol specification defines an Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) extension for sharing vCard and social network accounts information between the MPM Server, MPM Client, and social network sites (SNSs). . Therefore many web users need to manage disparate profiles across many distributed online sources. Maintaining these profiles is cumbersome, time-consuming, inefficient, and may lead to lost opportunity. The writer of this thesis adopted a research approach and a number of use cases for the implementation of the project. The use cases were created to capture the functional requirements of the MPM and to describe the interactions between users and the MPM. In the research a development process was followed in establishing the prototype and related protocols. The use cases were subsequently used to illustrate the prototype via the screenshots taken of the MPM client interfaces. The use cases also played a role in evaluating the outcomes of the research such as the framework, prototype, and the related protocols. An innovative application of this project is in the area of public health informatics. The researcher utilised the prototype to examine how the framework might benefit patients and physicians. The framework can greatly enhance health information management for patients and more importantly offer a more comprehensive personal health overview of patients to physicians. This will give a more complete picture of the patient’s background than is currently available and will prove helpful in providing the right treatment. The MPM prototype and related protocols have a high application value as they can be integrated into the real OSW platform and so serve users in the modern digital world. They also provide online users with a real platform for centrally storing their complete profile data, efficiently managing their personal information, and moreover, synchronising the overall complete profile with each of their discrete profiles stored in their different social network sites.

A requirements framework for semantic business process modelling

The emergence of semantic technologies to deal with the underlying meaning of things, instead of a purely syntactical representation, has led to new developments in various fields, including business process modeling. Inspired by artificial intelligence research, technologies for semantic Web services have been proposed and extended to process modeling. However, the applicablility of semantic Web services for semantic business processes is limited because business processes encompass wider requirements of business than Web services. In particular, processes are concerned with the composition of tasks, that is, in which order activities are carried out, regardless of their implementation details; resources assigned to carry out tasks, such as machinery, people, and goods; data exchange; and security and compliance concerns.

Morphological design control for large-scale city development : a new proposal

Whereas many good examples can be found of the study of urban morphology informing the design of new residential areas in Europe, it is much more difficult to find examples relating to other land uses and outside of Europe. This paper addresses a particular issue, the control and coordination of large and complex development schemes within cities, and, in doing so, considers commercial and mixed-use schemes outside of Europe. It is argued that urban morphology has much to offer for both the design of such development and its implementation over time. Firstly, lessons are drawn from the work of Krier and Rossi in Berlin, the form-based guidance developed in Chelmsford, UK, and the redesign and coordination of the Melrose Arch project in Johannesburg, SA. A recent development at Boggo Road in Brisbane, Australia, is then subjected to a more detailed examination. It is argued that the scheme has been unsatisfactory in terms of both design and implementation. An alternative framework based on historical morphological studies is proposed that would overcome these deficiencies. It is proposed that this points the way to a general approach that could be incorporated within the planning process internationally.

Drama and languages education : authentic assessment through process drama

In this chapter I explore the ways process drama can enrich and enliven the assessment regime of a middle school beginner language program. The chapter draws on five months’ language teaching which I did to collect data during my doctoral research. I taught a secondary co-educational class of 12-13 year olds (first year secondary school) for their German lessons while the teacher who had invited me in observed the lessons. Throughout the project there was an emphasis on student participation through questionnaire, discussion and interview...