Aspectos gerais da tectónica alpina no Algarve

The study of the tectonic strutures affecting the mesozoic and cenozoic deposits of Algarve's basin allows us to recognize the following phases of the Alpine orogeny: Jurassic (Upper Triassic at least)-Lower Cretaceous N-S distension; N-S compression during the setting-up of the Monchique syenite dome at the uppermost Cretaceous; Paleogene compression (?) (only locally? - at the Albufeira salt dome); Lower Miocene N-S distension; Upper Burdigalian to Lower Langhian N-S and E-W distension; N-S or NNW-SSE compression after the Middle Miocene; E-W compression after the Upper Tortonian; N-S compression during the Quaternary. NE-SW fractures affecting the Paleozoic basement are related with the first distension phases. The mesozoic N-S distension are the main cause of the two E-W flexures so far recognized. A tectonic inversion event did occur after the setting up of the Monchique syenite. If, the Lower Cretaceous Lower Miocene Albufeira's unconformity, is a local effect of halokinesis then, the true tectonic inversion of the Algarve basin, did occur in the Middle Miocene. These events correlate well with those knewn at Southern Spain and Morocco.

Critical reappraisal of Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic Central and North Atlantic, Caribbean and Mediterranean evolution

(l) The Pacific basin (Pacific area) may be regarded as moving eastwards like a double zip fastener relative to the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area): opening in the East and closing in the West. This movement is tracked by a continuous mountain belt, the collision ages of which increase westwards. (2) The relative movements between the Pacific area and the Pangaea area in the W-E/E-W direction are generated by tidal forces (principle of hypocycloid gearing), whereby the lower mantle and the Pacific basin or area (Pacific crust = roof of the lower mantle?) rotate somewhat faster eastwards around the Earth's spin axis relative to the upper mantle/crust system with the continents and their respective plates (Pangaea area) (differential rotation). (3) These relative West to East/East to West displacements produce a perpetually existing sequence of distinct styles of opening and closing ocean basins, exemplified by the present East to West arrangement of ocean basins around the globe (Oceanic or Wilson Cycle: Rift/Red Sea style; Atlantic style; Mediterranean/Caribbean style as eastwards propagating tongue of the Pacific basin; Pacific style; Collision/Himalayas style). This sequence of ocean styles, of which the Pacific ocean is a part, moves eastwards with the lower mantle relative to the continents and the upper-mantle/crust of the Pangaea area. (4) Similarly, the collisional mountain belt extending westwards from the equator to the West of the Pacific and representing a chronological sequence of collision zones (sequential collisions) in the wake of the passing of the Pacific basin double zip fastener, may also be described as recording the history of oceans and their continental margins in the form of successive Wilson Cycles. (5) Every 200 to 250 m.y. the Pacific basin double zip fastener, the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle and the eastwards growing collisional mountain belt in their wake complete one lap around the Earth. Two East drift lappings of 400 to 500 m.y. produce a two-lap collisional mountain belt spiral around a supercontinent in one hemisphere (North or South Pangaea). The Earth's history is subdivided into alternating North Pangaea growth/South Pangaea breakup eras and South Pangaea growth/North Pangaea breakup eras. Older North and South Pangaeas and their collisional mountain belt spirals may be reconstructed by rotating back the continents and orogenic fragments of a broken spiral (e.g. South Pangaea, Gondwana) to their previous Pangaea growth era orientations. In the resulting collisional mountain belt spiral, pieced together from orogenic segments and fragments, the collision ages have to increase successively towards the West. (6) With its current western margin orientated in a West-East direction North America must have collided during the Late Cretaceous Laramide orogeny with the northern margin of South America (Caribbean Andes) at the equator to the West of the Late Mesozoic Pacific. During post-Laramide times it must have rotated clockwise into its present orientation. The eastern margin of North America has never been attached to the western margin of North Africa but only to the western margin of Europe. (7) Due to migration eastwards of the sequence of ocean styles of the Wilson Cycle, relative to a distinct plate tectonic setting of an ocean, a continent or continental margin, a future or later evolutionary style at the Earth's surface is always depicted in a setting simultaneously developed further to the West and a past or earlier style in a setting simultaneously occurring further to the East. In consequence, ahigh probability exists that up to the Early Tertiary, Greenland (the ArabiaofSouth America?) occupied a plate tectonic setting which is comparable to the current setting of Arabia (the Greenland of Africa?). The Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary Eureka collision zone (Eureka orogeny) at the northern margin of the Greenland Plate and on some of the Canadian Arctic Islands is comparable with the Middle to Late Tertiary Taurus-Bitlis-Zagros collision zone at the northern margin of the Arabian Plate.

El paisaje del área fuente cenozoica, evolución e implicaciones; correlación con el registro sedimentario de las cuencas

Erosion surfaces are the main geomorphological features of the Hesperian Massif. However, three other physiographic elements define the present state of the landscape. Such are big mountain blocks with polygonal borders building at great scale mountain chains, some more modest ridges following hercynian structural trends, and finally the strong incision of the fluvial net. On the other hand, paleoalterations and associated sediments are the only available ways for relief correlation and interpretation. It consists of a triple relationship giving good results when the regional stratigraphy is well known. Tectonic massifs, differential relief sand incisions are originated by geotectonic alpine disturbances during the Tertiary. The three events are consecutive in time with overlapping lapses which the prior and following element: differencial reliefs as a mesozoic heritage occur first, afterwards morphostructural blocks responding directly to the alpine deformation, and finally the fluvial incision as a delayed answer to the preceding morphostructural changes. The relationship relief sedimentation confirms widely this idea, since an association exists between a siderolitic Cretaceous-lower Paleogene and the differential reliefs, between arkoses from the upper Paleogene and the tectonic morphostructural blocks and between the Neogene Series Ocres and the terraces.

Contribuição para a análise tectono-sedimentar do Fosso de Aljezur (SW de Portugal)

The Aljezur "graben" is a crucial piece in understanding the Caenozoic evolution of the SW atlantic portuguese edge. Detailed study of the sedimentary filling and bordering accidents allows the identification of several evolution steps since the Miocene. The graben is bordered by accidents that dislocate geomorphologic surfaces (Littoral Platform to the W, Interior Platform to the E), and also Neogene sedimentary units. The sedimentary filling is composed by conglomerates and sands grading into clays and bioclastic limestones (Burdigalian to Serravalian), upon which lie unconformably fine reddish sands, sometimes with abundant micas. Genetic and geometric relationships between these sands, those in higher surfaces outside the "graben" and the main bordering faults, are discussed. As a conclusion, the reconstruction of the tectono-sedimentary evolution is attempted, integrating it in a "pull-apart" context associated with the Messejana-fault system and it's reactivation by the differently orientated alpine compressions.

Land cover dynamics in Savanna Ecosystem of Borena Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Detecting and evaluating land cover change in the eastern half of East Timor (1972-2011)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Transfer of radionuclides from soil to vegetation in selected Irish ecosystems

This thesis details the findings of a study relating the transfer of 238U, 228Ra (232Th), 226Ra, and 137Cs from soil to vegetation in an Atlantic blanket bog, upland blanket bog and semi-natural grassland situated along the north-west coast of Ireland. The results of this study provide information on the uptake of these radionuclides by the indigenous vegetation found present in these ecosystems. The ecosystems chosen are internationally recognizable ecosystems and provide a wide variety of vegetation species and contrasting soil physiochemical properties which allow the influence of these parameters on radionuclide uptake to be assessed. The levels of radionuclides in the soil and vegetation were measured using gamma spectrometry, alpha spectrometry and ICP-MS. The nutrient status of the vegetation and soil physiochemical properties were measured using atomic absorption, flame photometry and other analytical techniques. The results of the study indicate that the uptake of 238U and 228Ra (232Th) by vegetation from all three ecosystems was negligible as the levels in all vegetation was below the limits of detection for the methods used in this study. These results appear to indicate that the vegetation studied do not possess the ability to accumulate significant levels of these radionuclides however this assumption cannot be upheld in the case of the Atlantic blanket bog as the levels in the soil of this ecosystem were too low for detection. Similar results were obtained for 226Ra uptake in both the Atlantic blanket bog and grassland for all vegetation with the exception of H. lanatus from the grassland ecosystem. Radium-226 uptake in upland blanket bog was higher and was detectable in the majority of vegetation indigenous to this ecosystem. Transfer factor values ranged from 0.07 to 2.35 and the TF values for E. tetralix were significantly higher than all other vegetation studied. This species of heather demonstrated the ability to accumulate 226Ra to a greater extent than all other vegetation. The uptake of 226Ra by upland blanket bog vegetation appears to be significantly influenced by a range of soil physiochemical properties. The nutrient status of the vegetation, in particular the calcium content in the vegetation appears to have a negative impact on the uptake of this radionuclide. Potassium-40 was detectable in all vegetation present in the three ecosystems and the levels in the grassland soil were significantly higher than the levels in both bogland soils. Transfer factor values for Atlantic blanket bog vegetation ranged from 0.9 to 13 .8 and were significantly higher in E. vaginatum in comparison to C. vulgaris. Potassium-40 TF values for upland blanket bog vegetation on average ranged from 1.4 for C. vulgaris (stems) to 5.2 for E. vaginatum and were statistically similar for all species of vegetation. Transfer factor values for grassland vegetation ranged from 0.7 to 3.8 and were also statistically similar for all species of vegetation indicating that the transfer of 40K to vegetation within the upland bog and grassland ecosystem is not dependent on plant species. Comparisons of 40K TF values for all three ecosystems indicate that the uptake in E. vaginatum from the Atlantic blanket bog was statistically higher than all other vegetation studied. This appears to indicate that E. vaginatum has the ability to accumulate 40K, however, this species of vegetation was also present in the upland blanket and did not demonstrate the same behaviour. The uptake of 40K by vegetation from all three ecosystems was significantly affected by a range of soil physiochemical properties and in some cases the results were contradictory in nature possibly indicating that the affect of these parameters on 40K uptake is species dependent. The most obvious trend in the data was the influence of soil CEC and magnesium levels in vegetation on 40K TF values. A positive correlation was apparent between the CEC of the soil and 40K uptake in vegetation from both the Atlantic blanket bog and grassland ecosystem. A similar trend was apparent between magnesium levels in vegetation and 40K TF values for the upland blanket bog and grassland vegetation. Caesium-13 7 levels were found to be significantly higher in the two bogland soils in comparison to the grassland soil and levels of 137Cs decreased with increasing soil depth. Transfer factor values for Atlantic blanket bog vegetation ranged from 1.9 to 9.6 and TF values were significantly higher in the leaves o f C. vulgaris in comparison to all other vegetation from this ecosystem. Caesium-13 7 TF values for the upland blanket bog vegetation on average ranged from 0.29 for E. tetralix to 1.6 for C. vulgaris. Uptake by the leaves of C. vulgaris was significantly higher than all other vegetation present thereby supporting the trend found within the Atlantic blanket bog vegetation. These results appear to indicate that the leaves of C. vulgaris have the ability to accumulate significant quantities of 137Cs and also that the uptake of 137Cs by this vegetation is dependent on plant compartment as the stems of this vegetation contained significantly lower levels than the leaves in both ecosystems. The uptake of 137Cs by grassland vegetation was very low and was only detectable in a fraction of the vegetation sampled. Caesium-137 TF values for grassland vegetation were in general lower than 0.02. The impact of soil physiochemical properties and nutrient status of vegetation on 137Cs uptake by vegetation appears to be complex and in some cases contradictory. The most apparent trend in the data was the positive influence of vegetation nutrients on 137Cs uptake in particular the magnesium levels present in the vegetation and to a lesser extent the calcium levels present. The results in general indicate that the uptake of 226Ra, 40K and 137Cs by the chosen vegetation is varied and complex and is significantly dependent on the species of vegetation, soil radionuclide concentration, soil physiochemical properties and the nutrient status of the vegetation.

Development of a rehabilitation system for the red mud waste generated at the Aughinish Alumina Bayer Plant

Aughinish Alumina Limited (AAL) have an obligation by terms of their Integrated Pollution Control Licence (IPCL) and Planning Permission to establish vegetation on the red mud stack at their plant at Aughinish, Co. Limerick. High pH and high exchangeable sodium percentage are the main known factors limiting the establishment of vegetation on red mud. Gypsum addition has been known to assist in alleviating these problems in other countries. However, there is no experience or published information on red mud rehabilitation under Irish conditions. Red mud with organic and inorganic waste-derived ameliorants as well as selected grassland species were examined under laboratory controlled environment conditions as well as in field plot trials. Also, in order that it would be economically achievable, the research utilised locally available waste products as the organic amendments. Screening trials found that physical constraints severely limit plant germination and growth in red mud. Gypsum addition effectively lowers pH, exchangeable sodium percentage and the availability of A1 and Fe in the mud. A strong relationship between pH, ESP and A1 levels was also found. Gypsum addition increased germination percentages and plant growth for all species investigated. Greenhouse trials demonstrated that organic wastes alone did not greatly improve conditions for plant growth but when used in conjunction with gypsum plant performances for all species investigated was significantly increased. There was a high mortality rate for grasses in non-gypsum treatments. An emerging trend of preferential iron uptake and calcium deficiency in non-gypsum treatments was found at pot screening stage. Species also displayed manganese and magnesium deficiencies.

A nutrient balance model for typical Irish farming systems

The twin objectives of the work described were to construct nutrient balance models (NBM) for a range of Irish animal production systems and to evaluate their potential as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes. The NBM has three components. The first is the intake of nutrients in the animal's diet. The second is retention or the nutrients the animal retains for the production of milk, meat or eggs. The third is the balance or the difference between the nutrient intake and retention. Data on the intake levels and their nutrient value for dairy cows, beef cattle, pigs and poultry systems were assembled. Literature searches and interviews with National experts were the primary sources of information. NBMs were then constructed for each production system. Summary tables of the nutrient values for the common diet constituents used in Irish animal production systems, the nutrient composition of the animal products and the NBMs (nutrient intake, retention and excretion) for a range of production systems were assembled. These represent the first comprehensive data set of this type for Irish animal production systems. There was generally good agreement between the derived NBMs values and those published in the literature. The NBMs were validated on a number of farms. Data on animal numbers, fertiliser use, concentrates inputs and production output were recorded on seven farms. Using the data a nutrient input/output balance was constructed for each farm. This was compared with the NBM estimate of the farm nutrient balance. The results showed good agreement between the measured balance and the NBM estimate particularly for the pig and poultry farms. However, the validation emphasised the inherent risks associated with NBMs. The average values used for feed intake and production parameters in the NEMs may result in the under or over estimate of actual nutrient balances on individual farms where these variables are substantially different. On the grassland farms there was a poor correlation between the input/output estimate and the NBM. This possibly results from the omission of the soil's contribution to the nutrient balance. However, the results indicate that the NBMs developed are a potentially useful tool for estimating nutrient balances. They also will serve to highlight the significant fraction of the nutrient inputs into farming systems that are retained on the farm. The potential of the NBM as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes was evaluated on two farms. Feed intake and composition, animal production, slurry production was monitored during the indoor winter feeding period. Slurry samples were taken for analysis. The appropriates NBMs were used to estimate the nutrient balance for each farm. The nutrient content of the slurry produced was calculated. There was a good agreement between the NBM estimate and the measured values. This preliminary evaluation suggests that the NBM has a potential to provide the farmer with a simple means of estimating the nutrient value of his slurry.

Bird-habitat associations in coastal rangelands of southern Brazil

Nearly all remnants of temperate grasslands in southeastern South America are used for livestock ranching and are subject to habitat degradation resulting from this activity. Exploring how habitat features affect the composition of grassland avifaunal communities is a first step to understand how current cattle-ranching management practices impact avian diversity. We used canonical ordination to test for relationships between five habitat variables and the composition of the bird community in coastal grasslands in southern Brazil. We sampled pastures with different heights, from overgrazed short-grass to tall herbaceous vegetation. We recorded 1,535 individuals and 27 species of birds. The first ordination axis indicated a strong contribution of mean vegetation height on the composition of the bird community, whereas the second axis revealed the influence of herbaceous vegetation patchiness and woody vegetation cover. Three groups of species were revealed by the ordination: one more diffuse associated with intermediate and tall herbaceous vegetation, another with short grass, and a third with vegetation patchiness and woody vegetation. Species restricted to tall herbaceous vegetation are negatively impacted from habitat degradation resulting from overgrazing and trampling by livestock, and mowing and burning of tall plants. Occurrence of these species in our study area is related with the presence of swales immediately behind the dune system and where remnants of tall vegetation persist. Birds of pastures with ample cover of short herbaceous plants, including one globally threatened species and six other restricted to short-grass habitat, apparently benefit from local livestock management practices. Woody vegetation possibly functions as a keystone structure, enabling the occurrence in grasslands of avian species that rely on shrubby habitat. Although livestock ranching promotes the diversity of habitats by creating distinct patches of vegetation height in grasslands, current management practices directed to the maintenance of short grass pastures may eliminate an entire subset of species, including regionally threatened taxa, and reduce avian diversity. The maintenance of large patches of tall herbaceous plants is needed to ensure the survival of species reliant on this type of grassland structure in our study area.

Diversity, composition and phenology of araneid orb-weavers (Araneae, Araneidae) associated with riparian forests in southern Brazil

The Araneidae is a speciose family including web-spinning spiders that are very abundant in various terrestrial ecosystems. Several studies demonstrate that changes in vegetation surrounding rivers, streams and brooks affect the associated araneofauna. The aim of this research was to compare differences found in diversity (abundance and richness), composition and phenology of Araneidae spiders sampled in different habitats in four riparian forest catchments in southern Brazil. Samples were taken from riparian forests in four rivers of Rio Grande do Sul State: Piratini, Camaquã, Sinos and Maquiné rivers, each in a different hydrographic basin. Samples were taken twice seasonally on each basin during two years, sampling the araneofauna of the tree-shrub strata with beating tray. Six transects were employed on each basin, two per habitat: edge with grassland, forest interior and river edge. Araneids totalled 20 genera and 65 species. Comparing riparian forests significant differences are found. Spider abundance differed among riparian forests as well as species richness. Overall, Piratini river riparian forest had the higher abundance and richness for Araneidae; the lower values were in Sinos river forest. The stronger degradation and fragmentation of the riparian forests of Sinos river probably influenced the results, with human disturbance gradients associated negatively to web building. We present data on the diversity of these spiders, which were very abundant in the riparian forest interior and very rich in species in the grassland/riparian forest edge. Species composition also differs among the studied habitats (the above plus river/riparian forest edge). For the most abundant species the phenological pattern across the seasons was also analysed.

Prospecção hidrobiológica da Baía de Sepetiba

Côr das águas de Sepetiba; as pròpriamente marítimas, pela Escala de Forel e as outras côres aparentes totais feitas por comparação com escalas de SÉGUY e com o Dicionário de Côres de MAERZ & PAUL, 1950. Côr Forel nº6 mostrava no litoral cirrípedes como a Tetraclita squamosa, nas rochas; Águas com a cianofícea planctônica Trichodesmium erythraeum tinham côr de "fôlha de bananeira" ou alpine green. O verde esmeralda mais intenso no local 7, com plancto maciço da diatomácea Coscinodiscus; a parte central da Baía com 150 [quilometros quadrados], cheia de larvas de camarão Penaeus schmidti, águas de cõr de ferrugem nas superfícies das águas; os estuários côr caramelo, isabellinus e bistre. Êste levantamento preliminar serve para comparações futuras, pois a Baía de Sepetiba ainda não é poluída. Futuramente haverá um pôrto de minérios com 3.000.000 de toneladas anuais, cais do pôrto, siderúrgicas e outras indústrias que a poluirão. Várias cõres de águas poluídas da Baía de Guanabara, como águas negras, águas côr de asfalto e outras escurecidas não foram encontradas em Sepetiba. Também não foram encntradas "águas vermelhas" com plancto predominante de dinoflagelados do que já vimos na Baía de Guanabara seguidos de mortandadas de peixes. A fig. 3 mostra as curvas de transparência, e a relação entre côr e transparência é dada para as côres totais aparentes. Foi marcado o coeficiente de extinção da luz K, pelo cálculo a partir do Disco de Secchi. Havendo poluições todos êsses dados que apresentamos deverão ser alterados.

An 40Ar/39Ar, Rb/Sr, and stable isotope study of micas in low-grade fold-and-thrust belt: An example from the Swiss Helvetic Alps

White micas in carbonate-rich tectonites and a few other rock types of large thrusts in the Swiss Helvetic fold-and-thrust belt have been analyzed by Ar-40/Ar-39 and Rb/Sr techniques to better constrain the timing of Alpine deformation for this region. Incremental Ar-40/Ar-39 heating experiments of 25 weakly metamorphosed (anchizone to low greenschist) samples yield plateau and staircase spectra. We interpret most of the staircase release spectra result from variable mixtures of syntectonic (neoformed) and detrital micas. The range in dates obtained within individual spectra depends primarily on the duration of mica nucleation and growth, and relative proportions of neoformed and detrital mica. Rb/Sr analyses of 12 samples yield dates of ca. 10-39 Ma (excluding one anomalously young sample). These dates are slightly younger than the Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates obtained for the same samples. The Rb/ Sr dates were calculated using initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios obtained from the carbonate-dominated host rocks, which are higher than normal Mesozoic carbonate values due to exchange with fluids of higher Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (and lower O-18/O-16 ratios). Model dates calculated using Sr-87/Sr-86 values typical of Mesozoic marine carbonates more closely approximate the Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates for most of the samples. The similarities of Rb/Sr and Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas dates are consistent with limited amounts of detrital mica in the samples. The delta(18)O values range from 24-15%. (VSMOW) for 2-6 mum micas and 27-16parts per thousand for the carbonate host rocks. The carbonate values are significantly lower than their protolith values due to localized fluid-rock interaction and fluid flow along most thrust surfaces. Although most calcite-mica pairs are not in oxygen isotope equilibrium at temperatures of ca. 200-400 degreesC, their isotopic fractionations are indicative of either 1) partial exchange between the minerals and a common external fluid, or 2) growth or isotopic exchange of the mica with the carbonate after the carbonate had isotopically exchanged with an external fluid. The geological significance of these results is not easily or uniquely determined, and exemplifies the difficulties inherent in dating very fine-grained micas of highly deformed tectonites in low-grade metamorphic terranes. Two generalizations can be made regarding the dates obtained from the Helvetic thrusts: 1) samples from the two highest thrusts (Mt. Gond and Sublage) have all of their Ar-40/Ar-39 steps above 20 Ma, and 2) most samples from the deepest Helvetic thrusts have steps (often accounting for more than 80% of Ar-39 release) between 15 and 25 Ma. These dates are consistent with the order of thrusting in the foreland-imbricating system and increase proportions of neoformed to detrital mica in the more metamorphosed hinterland and deeply buried portions of the nappe pile. Individual thrusts accommodated the majority of their displacement during their initial incorporation into the foreland-imbricating system, and some thrusts remained active or were reactivated down to 15 Ma.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown