Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Artefact-oriented business process modelling: an ontological dependency approach

Business process modelling can help an organisation better understand and improve its business processes. Most business process modelling methods adopt a task- or activity-based approach to identifying business processes. Within our work, we use activity theory to categorise elements within organisations as being either human beings, activities or artefacts. Due to the direct relationship between these three elements, an artefact-oriented approach to organisation analysis emerges. Organisational semiotics highlights the ontological dependency between affordances within an organisation. We analyse the ontological dependency between organisational elements, and therefore produce the ontology chart for artefact-oriented business process modelling in order to clarify the relationship between the elements of an organisation. Furthermore, we adopt the techniques from semantic analysis and norm analysis, of organisational semiotics, to develop the artefact-oriented method for business process modelling. The proposed method provides a novel perspective for identifying and analysing business processes, as well as agents and artefacts, as the artefact-oriented perspective demonstrates the fundamental flow of an organisation. The modelling results enable an organisation to understand and model its processes from an artefact perspective, viewing an organisation as a network of artefacts. The information and practice captured and stored in artefact can also be shared and reused between organisations that produce similar artefacts.

Knowledge process outsourcing in financial services: The vendor perspective

This research reports the findings from a study on nine knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) vendors working in the financial services industry. It delineates financial business processes along a low to high-end continuum. Findings suggest that KPO vendors are gradually moving along the value pathway offering more complex intellectual value activity based products and services to clients. However, they face many challenges including gaining the confidence of potential clients about outsourcing knowledge-intensive work, and finding effective solutions to mitigate outsourcing risk. Our paper concludes by developing a taxonomy of KPO scenarios to provide a backdrop for further academic research and to illustrate current practice.

A compact low-cost electronic hardware design for actuating soft robots

A low cost, compact embedded design approach for actuating soft robots is presented. The complete fabrication procedure and mode of operation was demonstrated, and the performance of the complete system was also demonstrated by building a microcontroller based hardware system which was used to actuate a soft robot for bending motion. The actuation system including the electronic circuit board and actuation components was embedded in a 3D-printed casing to ensure a compact approach for actuating soft robots. Results show the viability of the system in actuating and controlling siliconebased soft robots to achieve bending motions. Qualitative measurements of uniaxial tensile test, bending distance and pressure were obtained. This electronic design is easy to reproduce and integrate into any specified soft robotic device requiring pneumatic actuation.

Late Würm and Early-Middle Holocene environmental change and human activities in the Northern Apennines, Italy

An enhanced radiocarbon-dated pollen-stratigraphical record from Rovegno (Liguria, 812m asl), northern Apennines (Italy), has provided a history of vegetation succession from before 17,056-16,621 cal yrs BP to the present day. The record indicates the transition from open Pinus woodland to Artemisia dominated grassland, and finally Juniperus shrubland during the late Würm. This is succeeded by Betula and Pinus woodland, and the expansion of thermophilous taxa, namely Abies, Corylus and Quercus during the Late Würm Lateglacial Interstadial. The ‘Younger Dryas’ is possibly represented by an increase in Betula and Artemisia. During the early Holocene, mixed coniferous-deciduous woodland is dominant with Quercus, as well as Abies, Fagus and Corylus. Fagus woodland becomes established sometime before 6488-6318 cal yrs BP, but never becomes a major component of the woodland cover. Throughout the middle Holocene, Abies woodland fl uctuates, with marked declines between 6488-6318 cal yrs BP and 5287-4835 cal yrs BP, although the cause remains uncertain. Finally, the paper evaluates the application of non-pollen palynomorphs, especially coprophilous fungal spores, at Prato Spilla ‘A’ (Emilia Romagna) and concludes that greater caution must be used when interpreting middle Holocene human activity based upon pollen data alone

Exploring combinations of different color and facial expression stimuli for gaze-independent BCIs

Background: Some studies have proven that a conventional visual brain computer interface (BCI) based on overt attention cannot be used effectively when eye movement control is not possible. To solve this problem, a novel visual-based BCI system based on covert attention and feature attention has been proposed and was called the gaze-independent BCI. Color and shape difference between stimuli and backgrounds have generally been used in examples of gaze-independent BCIs. Recently, a new paradigm based on facial expression changes has been presented, and obtained high performance. However, some facial expressions were so similar that users couldn't tell them apart, especially when they were presented at the same position in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) paradigm. Consequently, the performance of the BCI is reduced. New Method: In this paper, we combined facial expressions and colors to optimize the stimuli presentation in the gaze-independent BCI. This optimized paradigm was called the colored dummy face pattern. It is suggested that different colors and facial expressions could help users to locate the target and evoke larger event-related potentials (ERPs). In order to evaluate the performance of this new paradigm, two other paradigms were presented, called the gray dummy face pattern and the colored ball pattern. Comparison with Existing Method(s): The key point that determined the value of the colored dummy faces stimuli in BCI systems was whether the dummy face stimuli could obtain higher performance than gray faces or colored balls stimuli. Ten healthy participants (seven male, aged 21–26 years, mean 24.5 ± 1.25) participated in our experiment. Online and offline results of four different paradigms were obtained and comparatively analyzed. Results: The results showed that the colored dummy face pattern could evoke higher P300 and N400 ERP amplitudes, compared with the gray dummy face pattern and the colored ball pattern. Online results showed that the colored dummy face pattern had a significant advantage in terms of classification accuracy (p < 0.05) and information transfer rate (p < 0.05) compared to the other two patterns. Conclusions: The stimuli used in the colored dummy face paradigm combined color and facial expressions. This had a significant advantage in terms of the evoked P300 and N400 amplitudes and resulted in high classification accuracies and information transfer rates. It was compared with colored ball and gray dummy face stimuli.

Semantic mapping using mobile robots

Robotic mapping is the process of automatically constructing an environment representation using mobile robots. We address the problem of semantic mapping, which consists of using mobile robots to create maps that represent not only metric occupancy but also other properties of the environment. Specifically, we develop techniques to build maps that represent activity and navigability of the environment. Our approach to semantic mapping is to combine machine learning techniques with standard mapping algorithms. Supervised learning methods are used to automatically associate properties of space to the desired classification patterns. We present two methods, the first based on hidden Markov models and the second on support vector machines. Both approaches have been tested and experimentally validated in two problem domains: terrain mapping and activity-based mapping.

Approximations of modal logics: K and beyond

Inspired by the recent work on approximations of classical logic, we present a method that approximates several modal logics in a modular way. Our starting point is the limitation of the n-degree of introspection that is allowed, thus generating modal n-logics. The semantics for n-logics is presented, in which formulas are evaluated with respect to paths, and not possible worlds. A tableau-based proof system is presented, n-SST, and soundness and completeness is shown for the approximation of modal logics K, T, D, S4 and S5. (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

IT support for administrative planning of clinical practice.

The administration of clinical practice placements for nursing students is a highly complex and information driven task. This demonstration is intended to give insight into the web based system KliPP (a Swedish acronym for Clinical Practice Planning) and to discuss the possibilities for further development and use.

Skolsköterskors uppfattning av samspelet mellan psykisk hälsa och fysisk aktivitet utifrån deras arbete med högstadieelever : En empirisk kvalitativ intervjustudie med fenomenografisk ansats

Bakgrund: Många barn uppvisar symtom på psykisk ohälsa, samtidigt visar studier att barn får en alltmer stillasittande fritid. Exakt hur den fysiska aktiviteten påverkar den psykiska hälsan är oklart då det är en komplex fråga. I sitt arbete erhåller skolsköterskor nära relationer med barn och de får på så vis en inblick i hur den psykiska samt fysiska hälsan ser ut. Syfte: Syftet med studien var att belysa hur samspelet mellan psykisk hälsa och fysisk aktivitet uppfattas av skolsköterskor utifrån deras erfarenhet i elevhälsan bland högstadieelever. Metod: En empirisk kvalitativ intervjustudie med fenomenografisk ansats. Undersökningsgruppen bestod av åtta stycken skolsköterskor i Karlstads kommun som arbetar med elever på högstadiet. Huvudresultat: Skolsköterskorna hade en gemensam erfarenhet av att många barn har en dålig psykisk hälsa och att detta främst observeras bland flickor. De delade även uppfattningen av att den fysiska aktiviteten minskar bland barn. Något som framkom av skolsköterskornas berättelser var att kraven inom idrotten uppfattas av många barn som allt för höga. Konklusion: Många barn upplever allt för höga krav inom idrotten vilket kan leda till psykisk ohälsa hos vissa barn och framförallt bland flickor. För att få barn att öka sin fysiska aktivitet är det viktigt att se över synsättet inom idrotten så att det blir den roliga, sociala och avslappnande aktivitet den är tänkt att vara.

Towards First-Order Temporal Resolution

In this paper we show how to extend clausal temporal resolution to the ground eventuality fragment of monodic first-order temporal logic, which has recently been introduced by Hodkinson, Wolter and Zakharyaschev. While a finite Hilbert-like axiomatization of complete monodic first order temporal logic was developed by Wolter and Zakharyaschev, we propose a temporal resolution-based proof system which reduces the satisfiability problem for ground eventuality monodic first-order temporal formulae to the satisfiability problem for formulae of classical first-order logic.

Índices antecedentes e coincidentes da atividade econômica brasileira:uma aplicação da análise de correlação canônica

This paper uses canonical correlation analisys to identify leading and coincident indicators of economic activity in Brazil. ln contrast with the traditional literature on the subject, no restrictions are made regarding the number of common cycles that are necessary to explain the complete cyclical behavior of the coincident variables. For the brazillian data, it is found that three common cycles exhaust all the cyclical pattern of economic activity. Based on the methodology developed here, it is also sugested an alternative chronology of the recent brazillian recessions.

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de custos integrado aos protocolos médicos para unidades hospitalares de tratamento intensivo

O ambiente de concorrência em que estão inseridas as empresas tem pressionado pela busca constante de novas ferramentas gerenciais. Os hospitais não estão alheios a este desafio e encontram-se em constante transformação ao encontro da excelência assistencial. A existência de um sistema de custos adequado, sendo um instrumento de informação acurado que auxilia na melhoria dos processos internos e nas tomadas de decisão como um todo, apresenta-se como elemento estratégico importante para a competitividade de um hospital. O propósito deste estudo de caso, realizado no primeiro semestre de 2002, foi o de desenvolver e validar um modelo de sistema de custos integrado aos protocolos médicos e rotinas assistenciais da Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) do Hospital Mãe de Deus de Porto Alegre - RS. O modelo foi matematicamente construído, embasado no método ABC (Actvity-Based Costing) para a alocação dos custos fixos e indiretos, e no método do Custo-Padrão real (corrente) para a alocação dos custos diretos, tendo como pressupostos o custeio dos diversos serviços e a conseqüente promoção de melhorias contínuas e auxílio ao processo decisório como vantagens competitivas nas negociações com fontes pagadoras. O desenvolvimento do modelo deu-se através do mapeamento de dez protocolos aprovados pela Comissão de Ética do hospital e representativos da assistência diversificada da UTI, seguido da alocação dos custos fixos e indiretos com mão-de-obra, depreciação, manutenção e gasoterapia, através do estabelecimento de direcionadores de tempo (mão-de-obra) e intensidade (demais custos), baseados no percentual de participação dos recursos ditados pelos protocolos. Os custos diretos com materiais e medicamentos foram alocados pela média do custo-padrão corrente. A coleta de dados primários, para o estabelecimento dos direcionadores de custos, foi realizada junto à equipe assistencial e utilizou-se medidas estatísticas de localização, dispersão e probabilidade para dar mais confiabilidade às análises. O modelo foi implementado computacionalmente, utilizando-se o software EXCEL da Microsoft. A validação foi dada pela comparação dos resultados entre o modelo desenvolvido e o demonstrativo contábil fornecido pela Controladoria do hospital. Concluiu-se que o modelo desenvolvido de sistema de custos integrado aos protocolos médicos atendeu os objetivos pretendidos, sendo um instrumento gerencial flexível e de fácil implementação, que deve ser utilizado pelo controller do hospital no auxílio ao processo decisório de gestores e da alta administração. Em adição, mostrou-se capaz de embasar tomadas de decisão no longo prazo em relação à capacidade instalada e oportunidades de redimensionamento de quadro de médicos plantonistas e enfermeiros.

A utilização do sistema de custos ABC no Brasil

The purpose of the survey was to provide a general view of the utilization of ABC systems in Brazil. Several surveys were carried out and published in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada about the utilization of ABC by the companies. However, one did not know the present level of knowledge, acceptance and adoption of ABC by Brazilian companies. Therefore, it was not clear either if, and to what extension, there was awareness of the development of models like ABC. The aim of this survey was to fill this gap and provide a general view of the utilization of ABC systems in Brazil.

A constitucionalização do processo : a virada do paradigma racional e político no processo civil brasileiro do estado democrático constitucional

O estudo propõe desenhar as linhas mestras do processo civil brasileiro no quadro do Estado de Direito Democrático, pós Constituição Federal de 1988. Na primeira parte, partindo da origem do direito processual constitucional brasileiro na Constituição Republicana de 1891 visa a abordar as mudanças ocorridas com a constitucionalização do processo, o que significa reconhecer que na formação e desenvolvimento do direito processual brasileiro atuaram forças paradoxais (recepção da judicial review, do direito norte-americano, e recepção do direito europeu-continental, no CPC de 1973) e que este paradoxo tende a ser superado pela virada paradigmática da racionalidade jurídica e das relações entre Direito e Política no marco do Estado Constitucional. Estabelece, como primeira mudança, a relação entre a racionalidade prática procedimental e a necessidade de resgate da pretensão de correção para a lógica jurídica. Dessa percepção decorre uma outra alteração profunda, na atuação do direito em juízo, apontando para a combinação entre o modelo normativo de democracia deliberativoprocedimental (HABERMAS) e o processo cooperativo (ALVARO DE OLIVEIRA) Na segunda parte do estudo, a tese coloca essas premissas frente aos necessários desenvolvimentos do direito processual pós Constituição de 1988. Analisa-se, criticamente, as seguintes atitudes fundamentais: a) a configuração e o conteúdo do direito processual constitucional na doutrina atual e sua adequação ao contraditório como “valor-fonte” do direito processual contemporâneo; b) as relações entre direito material e direito processual; c) a teoria das fontes do direito, apresentando a jurisprudência como fonte primária, em razão da recepção tardia e mitigada do stare decisis no direito brasileiro (súmulas vinculantes, decisões vinculantes em controle de constitucionalidade e jurisprudência dominante dos tribunais), bem como, da importância dos modelos judiciais na densificação dos conteúdos das normasprincípio e das cláusulas abertas. Com isso procura-se apontar para a dissolução dos antagonismos radicais entre as tradições do ocidente (common law e romano-germânica) e seus métodos: o Code-Based Legal System e o Judge-Made Law System. A Constituição resgata, assim, o papel de centro e fator de unidade no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, também para o processo civil, comprometendo todo o ordenamento jurídico com a democratização das fontes de poder, inclusive o debate judicial.