Polypharmacy and inappropriate medication use in patients with dementia: an underresearched problem

Multimorbidity and polypharmacy are increasingly prevalent across healthcare systems and settings as global demographic trends shift towards increased proportions of older people in populations. Numerous studies have demonstrated an association between polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP), and have reported high prevalence of PIP across settings of care in Europe and North America and, as a consequence, increased risk of adverse drug reactions, healthcare utilisation, morbidity and mortality. These studies have not focused specifically on people with dementia, despite the high risk of adverse drug reactions and PIP in this patient cohort. This narrative review considers the evidence currently available in the area, including studies examining prevalence of PIP in older people with dementia, how appropriateness of prescribing is assessed, the medications most commonly implicated, the clinical consequences, and research priorities to optimise prescribing for this vulnerable patient group. Although there has been considerable research effort to develop criteria to assess medication appropriateness in older people in recent years, the majority of tools do not focus on people with dementia. Of the limited number of tools available, most focus on the advanced stages of dementia in which life-expectancy is limited. The development of tools to assess medication appropriateness in people with mild-to-moderate dementia or across the full spectrum of disease severity represents an important gap in the research literature and is beginning to attract research interest, with recent studies considering the medication regimen as a whole, or misprescribing, overprescribing or underprescribing of certain medications/medication classes including anticholinergics, psychotropics, antibiotics and analgesics. Further work is required in development and validation of criteria to assess prescribing appropriateness in this vulnerable patient population, to determine prevalence of PIP in large cohorts of people with the full spectrum of dementia variants and severities and to examine the impact of PIP on health outcomes.

Mortalidade por câncer de boca e condição sócio-econômica no Brasil

Chronic non-communicable diseases represent a major public health problem, requiring more effective investigation and control by government agencies. The aim of this study was to correlate the mortality rate for oral cancer in Brazilian State capitals from 1998 to 2002 with socioeconomic factors collected in the 2000 census, using an ecological study design. Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System from 1998 to 2002. Social factors were taken from the Brazilian Human Development Atlases. After data collection, statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's correlation index. The findings included positive and significant correlations among the socioeconomic indicators (Municipal Human Development Index - MHDI, MHDI-income, MHDI-education, MHDI-life expectancy, and per capita income), and negative and significant correlations with the socioeconomic indicators Gini Index and infant mortality. Despite the study’s limitations and probable underreporting in less developed State capitals, the study found significant statistic correlations between the selected socioeconomic indicators and the oral cancer mortality rate___________________________RESUMO As doenças crônico-degenerativas representam um grande problema de saúde pública, necessitando de levantamento e controle mais efetivos destas enfermidades por parte dos órgãos públicos. O objetivo deste estudo foi correlacionar os índices de mortalidade por câncer oral nas capitais do Brasil no período de 1998 a 2002 com indicadores sócio-econômicos do Censo Demográfico de 2000 , por meio de um estudo do tipo ecológico. Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (Ministério da Saúde/DATASUS), para os anos de 1998-2002. Os indicadores sócio-econômicos foram obtidos a partir do Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil. Após coleta dos dados, a análise estatística foi realizada usando-se o índice de correlação de Pearson. Observaram-se corre- lações positivas e significativas entre os indicadores sócio-econômicos (Índice de Desenvolvimento HumanoMunicipal – IDH-M, IDH-M renda, IDH-M educação, IDH-M longevidade e renda per capita), e correlação negativa e significante para os indicadores sócio-econômicos índice de Gini e mortalidade infantil. Apesar das limitações do estudo e da provável problemática de sub-registros nas capitais menos desenvolvidas, o presente trabalho encontrou correlações estatisticamente significantes entre os indicadores sócio-econômicos selecionados e o índice de mortalidade por câncer oral

Health in Ireland: Key Trends 2015

Health in Ireland Key Trends gives us insights into trends in demographics, population health, hospital and primary care and health service employment and expenditure. The presentation of trend data over the last decade in the 2015 report highlights the many significant achievements that Ireland has made in terms of key outcomes relating to the health and wellbeing of the population. However, it also highlights the challenges that persist in terms of the accessibility of timely healthcare and in the context of financial constraints. In the last decade alone, there has been an increase of two and a half years in life expectancy. These gains are driven largely by reductions in mortality rates from principal causes of deaths such as those from heart disease and cancer. Another striking feature is the growth in the number of people aged over 65. Each year this cohort increases by 20,000 people. This trend is set to continue into the future and will have implications for future planning and health service delivery. Ireland will see the largest proportional increases in the population aged 85 years and older. Ageing of the population in conjunction with lifestyle-related health threats continue to present major challenges now and into the future in sustaining and further improving health and health services in Ireland. Although difficult to quantify, the contribution of modern health services to these improvements in health outcomes and in life expectancy have been significant. Ireland’s fertility rates are still among the highest in Europe but the birth rate has fallen to its lowest rate for the last decade.  However, Ireland currently has the highest proportion of children and young people in our population among EU countries.  

Peripheral Artery Disease Patients May Benefit More from Aggressive Secondary Prevention than Aneurysm Patients to Improve Survival

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although it has become clear that aneurysmal and occlusive arterial disease represent two distinct etiologic entities, it is still unknown whether the two vascular pathologies are prognostically different. We aim to assess the long-term vital prognosis of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysmal disease (AAA) or peripheral artery disease (PAD), focusing on possible differences in survival, prognostic risk profiles and causes of death. METHODS: Patients undergoing elective surgery for isolated AAA or PAD between 2003 and 2011 were retrospectively included. Differences in postoperative survival were determined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. Prognostic risk profiles were also established with Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: 429 and 338 patients were included in the AAA and PAD groups, respectively. AAA patients were older (71.7 vs. 63.3 years, p < 0.001), yet overall survival following surgery did not differ (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.87-1.54). Neither was type of vascular disease associated with postoperative cardiovascular nor cancer-related death. However, in comparison with age- and gender-matched general populations, cardiovascular mortality was higher in PAD than AAA patients (48.3% vs. 17.3%). Survival of AAA and PAD patients was negatively affected by age, history of cancer and renal insufficiency. Additional determinants in the PAD group were diabetes and ischemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term survival after surgery for PAD and AAA is similar. However, overall life expectancy is significantly worse among PAD patients. The contribution of cardiovascular disease towards mortality in PAD patients warrants more aggressive secondary prevention to reduce cardiovascular mortality and improve longevity.

Rede Social Pessoal de Cuidadores Informais de Adultos com Necessidades Especiais

Objetivo. Devido ao aumento da esperança de vida, os adultos com necessidades especiais vivem mais tempo, sendo os seus principais cuidadores, geralmente familiares, também mais envelhecidos. Tal situação representa novas necessidades específicas de apoio, sendo inúmeros os desafios colocados ao Serviço Social no sentido de garantir o bem-estar da pessoa com incapacidade e dos seus cuidadores. Assim, este estudo tem como objetivo realizar um levantamento das necessidades de apoio e a caraterização da rede social pessoal de apoio do cuidador informal de adultos com necessidades especiais. Participantes. A amostra é constituída por 40 cuidadores informais de adultos com necessidades especiais, integrados na resposta social “Centro de Atividades Ocupacionais-CAO” da Associação de Paralisia Cerebral de Coimbra, de ambos os sexos com idade igual ou superior a 40 anos. Material e métodos. Foi utilizado o Instrumento de Avaliação da Rede Social Pessoal e um questionário para caracterização sociodemográfica e sociofamiliar dos cuidadores, assim como para avaliação de necessidades. Resultados. Aproximadamente um terço dos cuidadores relatou a experiência de níveis moderados de sobrecarga associada à prestação de cuidados, enquanto mais de metade relatou a experiência de níveis elevados e muito elevados dessa sobrecarga; o apoio financeiro foi referido como a forma de apoio mais necessária no presente, ainda que o apoio em residência tenha sido percecionado por cerca de um terço dos cuidadores como a forma de apoio mais necessária no futuro; enquanto mais de metade considerou o apoio domiciliário e de unidade residencial (institucional). Estes cuidadores familiares referiram a "incerteza" e a "esperança" como os sentimentos mais frequentemente experienciados em relação ao futuro das suas vidas. No que respeita às redes sociais, as relações familiares são centrais a nível estrutural; em termos de caraterísticas funcionais da rede, foram observados valores mais elevados para as dimensões de reciprocidade do apoio e satisfação com a rede social. Implicações. Este estudo sublinha a importância da avaliação das necessidades de apoio dos cuidadores familiares de adultos com necessidades especiais. A sua implementação sistemática pode auxiliar a tomada de decisão baseada na evidência empírica para as intervenções do Serviço Social, tais como na planificação e gestão de respostas e serviços sociais, a par do reconhecimento e ativação dos recursos das próprias famílias, de forma a promover a eficiência dos recursos e eficácia das intervenções, focadas no bem-estar do cidadão com deficiência e das suas famílias. / Aim. The general increase in human life expectancy has resulted in greater rates of survival for adults with special care needs, as well as for their ageing family caregivers. This situation poses different and specific support needs, which represent a major challenge in social work interventions aimed at ensuring the well-being of disabled persons and their caregivers. Therefore, this study was aimed to describe the needs for support and the perceived social support network of family caregivers of adults with special care needs. Participants. The sample for this study comprised 40 family caregivers of disabled adults with special care needs, of both genders and aged 40 years old at minimum, who attended a long-term care facility at Coimbra Cerebral Palsy Association. Material and methods. Participants were administered a self-report questionnaire on socio-economic, family and caregiving needs, along with the Instrument for Assessing Personal Social Networks. Results. Nearly one third a family caregivers experienced moderate caregiving burden, while more than half experienced high or very high levels of caregiving burden; financial support was perceived as the most needed form of support in the present, but residential home care was identified as the most needed form of support in the future; while more than a half considered home-based support and residential support viable options for their disabled family members with special care needs. These family caregivers reported "uncertainty" and "hope" as the most common feelings towards their family life in the future. On the topic of social networks, family relations were found to be crucial at the structural level; in terms of functional characteristics of the network, elevated scores were observed for reciprocity of support and satisfaction with the social network. Implications. This study highlights the importance of increasing the specificity of the assessments of needs for support in family caregivers of disabled adults with special care needs. The systematic conduction of these assessments may assist evidence-based decision making in social work interventions, such as for planning and managing social services, acknowledging and activating the families' own resources, and ultimately promote the efficacy and effectiveness 57 interventions aimed at improving the well-being of disabled citizens and their families.

Nível de Satisfação nos Cuidados Prestados em Estruturas Residenciais para Idosos: estudo comparativo entre instituições do sector lucrativo e do sector solidário

Com o aumento da esperança média de vida e, consequentemente, com o aumento do número de idosos que necessitam de respostas sociais capazes de proporcionar uma melhor qualidade de vida, a escolha da Instituição onde colocar o nosso familiar é cada vez mais exigente. Este estudo teve como principal objetivo realizar uma análise comparativa do grau de satisfação dos utentes, familiares e colaboradores de duas instituições distintas da região centro (uma do sector solidário e outra do sector lucrativo) pelos serviços prestados, procurando acima de tudo, acabar (ou talvez não) com o estereótipo de que a qualidade dos serviços prestados por uma instituição do sector lucrativo é sempre melhor que aqueles prestados por uma Instituição Privada de Solidariedade Social. As conclusões retiradas deste estudo revelaram que, contrariamente ao estereótipo que a sociedade nos impõe, os utentes, famílias e colaboradores da Instituição Privada de Solidariedade Social são os que mais se encontram satisfeitos com a qualidade dos serviços prestados. No entanto, para além de não pudermos extrapolar estes resultados para a generalidade das instituições, para se compreender melhor os resultados obtidos neste estudo foi tido em conta a zona geográfica em que cada uma das instituições se encontra e o públicoalvo que ambas abrangem. / With increasing life expectancy and hence with the increasing number of elderly people who need social solutions capable of providing a better quality of life , the choice of the institution where you put our family is increasingly demanding . This study aimed to carry out , between these two types of institutions , a comparative analysis of the degree of user satisfaction , family and employees of two different institutions of the central region ( a supportive sector and one from the profit sector ) for services rendered, looking above all, end (or maybe not) with the stereotype that the quality of services provided by an institution of the profit sector is always better than those provided by a Private institution of Social Solidarity. Findings from this study revealed that, contrary to the stereotype that society imposes on us , the users , families and colleagues of Private Institution of Social Solidarity are the ones who are satisfied with the quality of services provided. However , besides we can not extrapolate these results to the majority of institutions , to better understand the results obtained in this study was taken into account the geographical area in which each institution is and the audience that both cover .

BAP Guidelines on the Management of Weight Gain, Metabolic Disturbances and Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Psychosis and Antipsychotic Drug Treatment

Excess deaths from cardiovascular disease are a major contributor to the significant reduction in life expectancy experienced by people with schizophrenia. Important risk factors in this are smoking, alcohol misuse, excessive weight gain and diabetes. Weight gain also reinforces service users’ negative views of themselves and is a factor in poor adherence with treatment. Monitoring of relevant physical health risk factors is frequently inadequate, as is provision of interventions to modify these. These guidelines review issues surrounding monitoring of physical health risk factors and make recommendations about an appropriate approach. Overweight and obesity, partly driven by antipsychotic drug treatment, are important factors contributing to the development of diabetes and cardiovascular disease in people with schizophrenia. There have been clinical trials of many interventions for people experiencing weight gain when taking antipsychotic medications but there is a lack of clear consensus regarding which may be appropriate in usual clinical practice. These guidelines review these trials and make recommendations regarding appropriate interventions. Interventions for smoking and alcohol misuse are reviewed, but more briefly as these are similar to those recommended for the general population. The management of impaired fasting glycaemia and impaired glucose tolerance (‘pre-diabetes’), diabetes and other cardiovascular risks, such as dyslipidaemia, are also reviewed with respect to other currently available guidelines. These guidelines were compiled following a consensus meeting of experts involved in various aspects of these problems. They reviewed key areas of evidence and their clinical implications. Wider issues relating to primary care/secondary care interfaces are discussed but cannot be resolved within guidelines such as these.

Contrôle adaptatif d'un bioréacteur cardiaque par algorithme génétique

Un bon fonctionnement du coeur humain est primordial pour maintenir une bonne qualité de vie. Cependant, lorsque le coeur est défaillant, certaines interventions chirurgicales s’avèrent nécessaires pour prolonger l’espérance de vie. Dans le cadre d’un projet multidisciplinaire reliant le génie mécanique avec le domaine biomédical, notre équipe travaille sur la fabrication de valves cardiaques conçues entièrement par génie tissulaire. Pour y parvenir, il est important d’obtenir des propriétés mécaniques optimales pour les tissus biologiques. Afin d’obtenir ces propriétés mécaniques, un outil important a été fabriqué lors d’une étude antérieure : le bioréacteur cardiaque. Le bioréacteur cardiaque permet de reproduire l’environnement physiologique du coeur, notamment les conditions de débit et de pression. Il est crucial de bien contrôler ces conditions, car celles-ci jouent un rôle important lors du conditionnement des substituts valvulaires. Toutefois, il est complexe de contrôler simultanément ces deux conditions de manière efficace. C’est pourquoi notre équipe s’est concentrée sur le développement d’une nouvelle stratégie de contrôle afin que le bioréacteur puisse reproduire le plus fidèlement possible l’environnement physiologique. Plusieurs techniques de contrôle ont été essayés jusqu’à maintenant. Par contre, leur précision était généralement limitée. Une nouvelle approche a donc été envisagée et est présentée dans ce mémoire. Cette nouvelle approche pour le contrôle du bioréacteur est basée sur un type d’algorithme bien connu mais encore très peu utilisé en contrôle : les algorithmes génétiques. Cette approche prometteuse nous a permis de produire des résultats dépassant tous ceux obtenus jusqu’à maintenant pour l’une des deux conditions, soit le débit physiologique.

1999 Seat Belt Usage Survey, March 15, 2000

The 78 percent seat belt usage rate in 1999 (up 7 percent since 1992) reflects active enforcement and education efforts that have occurred in Iowa during the last few years. Through continuing education of the public, an active "Life Toll" campaign, seat belt enforcement, and other cooperative efforts between state and local law enforcement, Iowa will strive to increase the use of seat belts and save lives on Iowa roadways.

1998 Seat Belt Usage Survey, February 18, 1999

The 78 percent seat belt usage rate in 1999 (up 7 percent since 1992) reflects active enforcement and education efforts that have occurred in Iowa during the last few years. Through continuing education of the public, an active "Life Toll" campaign, seat belt enforcement, and other cooperative efforts between state and local law enforcement, Iowa will strive to increase the use of seat belts and save lives on Iowa roadways.

2001 Seat Belt Usage Survey, April 23, 2003

The 81 percent seat belt usage rate in 2001 (up 10 percent since 1992) reflects active enforcement and education efforts that have occurred in Iowa during the last few years. Through continuing education of the public, an active "Life Toll" campaign, seat belt enforcement, and other cooperative efforts between state and local law enforcement, Iowa will strive to increase the use of seat belts and save more lives on Iowa roadways.

2002 Seat Belt Usage Survey, February 26, 2003

The 82 percent seat belt usage rate in 2002 (up 11 percent since 1992) reflects active enforcement and education efforts that have occurred in Iowa during the last few years. Through continuing education of the public, an active "Life Toll" campaign, seat belt enforcement, and other cooperative efforts between state and local law enforcement, Iowa will strive to increase the use of seat belts and save more lives on Iowa roadways.

2004 Seat Belt Usage Survey, August 15, 2005

The 86.4 percent safety-belt usage rate in 2004 (an increase of 13 percent since 1994) reflects active enforcement and education efforts that have occurred in Iowa over the course of the last decade. Through continuing education of the public with programs in the school and communities, the “Click it or Ticket” campaign, an active “Life Toll” campaign, year-long safety belt enforcement, and other cooperative efforts between state and local law enforcement, Iowa will strive to increase the use of safety belts and save more lives on Iowa roadways.

Mobilisation des dépôts ectopiques de tissu adipeux : ses implications dans la résolution des comorbidités associées à l'obésité sévère suivant une chirurgie bariatrique

La prévalence de l’obésité sévère ne cesse d’augmenter. La problématique associée à l’obésité sévère est la présence possible de nombreuses comorbidités qui peuvent coexister et altérer le système cardiovasculaire, pulmonaire, endocrinien, articulaire et même favoriser le développement de certains cancers. L’excès de poids, plus particulièrement l’excès de tissu adipeux, sont tous deux liés au développement de ces comorbidités. Aucune donnée n’est disponible quant au rôle de la déposition ectopique du tissu adipeux. Considérant le caractère morbide de l’obésité sévère, la mortalité de toute cause augmentée et l’espérance de vie réduite, à ce jour le seul traitement dit efficace à long terme pour le traitement de l’obésité sévère est la chirurgie bariatrique. L’efficacité est définie par la perte de poids, le maintien à long terme de cette perte de poids ainsi que par l’amélioration ou la résolution des comorbidités. L’intérêt clinique et scientifique pour la chirurgie bariatrique est grandissant. Un nombre important d’études s’intéresse aux mécanismes sous-jacents de la résolution des comorbidités. Le diabète de type 2 est la comorbidité la plus étudiée et peu d’études se sont intéressées aux déterm meil.inants de la résolution de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du som Comme premier objectif, cette thèse visait à caractériser les différences de la composition corporelle et de la distribution du tissu adipeux de patients obèses sévères avec ou sans diagnostic de diabète de type 2, d’hypertension artérielle et d’apnée obstructive du sommeil. Le deuxième objectif de cette thèse visait à comparer l’évolution postopératoire suite à une chirurgie bariatrique sur les changements de la composition corporelle et de la distribution du tissu adipeux selon le statut de résolution du diabète de type 2, de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil. De plus, considérant le peu d’évidences dans la littérature au sujet des déterminants de la résolution de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil, l’évaluation du profil inflammatoire, des adipokines et de l’activité du système nerveux autonome ont aussi été caractérisés. Premièrement, nous avons documenté qu’en présence d’obésité sévère, la déposition ectopique du tissu adipeux était plus importante chez les patients avec un diabète de type 2, une hypertension artérielle et une apnée obstructive du sommeil comparativement à ceux n’ayant pas ces comorbidités. Nous avons par la suite montré que la résolution du diabète de type 2 et de l’hypertension artérielle était caractérisée par une réduction plus importante du tissu adipeux viscéral. Au contraire, la résolution de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil était plutôt caractérisée par une réduction plus importante du tissu adipeux sous-cutané à la mi-cuisse et par une tendance à une perte de poids plus élevée. De plus, nous avons observé que chez les patients qui n’avaient pas résolu leur diabète de type 2, leur hypertension artérielle et leur apnée obstructive du sommeil, la quantité de tissu adipeux viscéral, à 12 mois suivant la chirurgie bariatrique, était plus importante comparativement à celle mesurée chez les patients n’ayant pas résolu ces comorbidités. Spécifiquement à l’évaluation du profil inflammatoire et des adipokines, nous avons observé que chez les patients obèses sévères, la présence de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil n’était pas caractérisée par un profil altéré au niveau des marqueurs inflammatoires et des adipokines. Également, nous n’avons pas observé de changements majeurs qui pouvaient expliquer, en partie, la résolution de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil. Quant à l’activité du système nerveux autonome, nous avons observé une faible activité du système nerveux parasympathique chez les patients obèses sévères avec hypertension artérielle et apnée obstructive du sommeil. Nous avons également documenté que la résolution de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil était associée à une tendance à une augmentation plus importante de l’activité parasympathique du système nerveux autonome. Les résultats obtenus au cours de ce doctorat supportent l’importance de la déposition ectopique du tissu adipeux en situation d’obésité sévère, particulièrement le rôle du tissu adipeux viscéral, dans le développement du diabète de type 2, de l’hypertension artérielle et de l’apnée obstructive du sommeil ainsi que dans la résolution de ces comorbidités suivant une chirurgie bariatrique. D’autres recherches devront davantage s’intéresser à la mobilisation des dépôts ectopiques de tissu adipeux comme un déterminant important dans la résolution à plus long terme de ces comorbidités.

Dynamique d’une population faunique en expansion sous différents scénarios climatiques : le dindon sauvage (Meleagris gallopavo)

Les changements climatiques récents ont mené à l’expansion de la répartition de plusieurs espèces méridionales, mais ont aussi causé l’extinction locale d’espèces se retrouvant à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ces populations en expansion peuvent favoriser différentes stratégies d’histoire de vie en répondant à différents facteurs limitants. Dans cette thèse, je vise à déterminer et quantifier l’effet du climat et des évènements extrêmes sur le cycle de vie complet d’une espèce en expansion (le dindon sauvage) pour comprendre les changements au niveau populationnel ainsi que les mécanismes impliqués dans l’expansion de la distribution d’une espèce. J’ai défini les évènements extrêmes de pluie, d’épaisseur de neige au sol et de température, comme un évènement dont la fréquence est plus rare que le 10e et 90e percentile. En utilisant l’approche « Measure-Understand-Predict » (MUP), j’ai tout d’abord suivi trois populations le long d’un gradient latitudinal de sévérité hivernale pour mesurer l’effet de variables météorologiques sur la dynamique des populations. La survie des dindons sauvages diminuait drastiquement lorsque l’accumulation de neige au sol dépassait 30 cm pour une période de 10 jours et diminuait également avec la température. Au printemps, la persistance de la neige affectait négativement le taux d’initiation de la nidification et l’augmentation de la pluie diminuait la survie des nids. Dans une deuxième étape, j’ai examiné l’impact des évènements climatiques extrêmes et des processus démographiques impliqués dans l’expansion du dindon, liés à la théorie des histoires de vie pour comprendre la relation entre la dynamique de ces populations en expansions avec le climat. J’ai démontré que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes hivernaux et, d’une façon moins importante, les évènements extrêmes estivaux limitaient l’expansion nordique des dindons sauvages. J’ai appuyé, à l’aide de données empiriques et de modélisation, les hypothèses de la théorie classique des invasions biologiques en montrant que les populations en établissement priorisaient les paramètres reproducteurs tandis que la survie adulte était le paramètre démographique affectant le plus la dynamique des populations bien établies. De plus, les populations les plus au nord étaient composées d’individus plus jeunes ayant une espérance de vie plus faible, mais avaient un potentiel d’accroissement plus élevé que les populations établies, comme le suggère cette théorie. Finalement, j’ai projeté l’impact de la récolte sur la dynamique des populations de même que le taux de croissance de cette espèce en utilisant les conditions climatiques futures projetées par les modèles de l’IPCC. Les populations en établissement avaient un taux de récolte potentiel plus élevé, mais la proportion de mâles adultes, possédant des caractéristiques recherchées par les chasseurs, diminuait plus rapidement que dans les populations établies. Dans le futur, la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de pluie devrait augmenter tandis que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de température hivernale et d’accumulation de neige au sol devraient diminuer après 2060, limitant probablement l’expansion nordique du dindon sauvage jusqu’en 2100. Cette thèse améliore notre compréhension des effets météorologiques et du climat sur l’expansion de la répartition des espèces ainsi que les mécanismes démographiques impliqués, et nous a permis de prédire la probabilité de l’expansion nordique de la répartition du dindon sauvage en réponse aux changements climatiques.