Plannification hospitalière: Quel scénario démographique pour prédire les besoins en soins hospitaliers?

Contexte: L'évolution démographique est un facteur essentiel pour la planification hospitalière. Le scenario démographique moyen de l'OFS ne répond que partiellement aux exigences de la planification pour le canton du Valais ; il ne permet pas de faire des projections par région hospitalière. De plus, la croissance en 2010 et 2011 selon le scenario OFS est inferieure a celle observée. Nous avons développe un scenario ajuste en tenant compte de l'évolution récente de la population valaisanne, et ce par région hospitalière. Méthode: La population de départ et les taux d'accroissement du au solde naturel et migratoire 2012 ont été déterminés à partir des données réelles 2011. Entre 2002 et 2011, le taux d'accroissement migratoire a fortement varie. Les taux 2011 ont donc été ajustés en fonction des taux moyens d'accroissement migratoire 2002-2011 calcules pour chaque région hospitalière. Pour les années 2013-2025, les écarts de taux d'accroissement naturel et migratoire du scenario OFS ont été repris tel quel. Résultats: Entre 2000 et 2010, la population valaisanne est passée de 276'170 a 312'684 habitants (+13.2%). Entre 2012 et 2025, les deux scenarios prévoient une poursuite de la croissance de la population, mais de manière moins soutenue, particulièrement selon le scenario OFS. Ainsi, en 2020, la population devrait atteindre 348'783 habitants (+11.5%) selon le scenario ajuste et 330'616 (+5.7%) selon le scenario OFS. La part de la population âgée de 65 ans et plus passera de 17.1% en 2010 a 20.5% en 2020 selon le scenario ajuste et a 21.4% selon le scenario OFS. Conclusion: Au vu des limites du scenario moyen de l'OFS, il est pertinent de développer des alternatives tenant compte au mieux des spécificités démographiques cantonales. Le scenario ajuste prédit une croissance plus forte de la population, ce qui a un impact important sur les besoins en soins hospitaliers et la planification hospitalière.

Spatial visualization of DNA in solution.

An image analysis method is presented which allows for the reconstruction of the three-dimensional path of filamentous objects from two of their projections. Starting with stereo pairs, this method is used to trace the trajectory of DNA molecules embedded in vitreous ice and leads to a faithful representation of their three-dimensional shape in solution. This computer-aided reconstruction is superior to the subjective three-dimensional impression generated by observation of stereo pairs of micrographs because it enables one to look at the reconstructed molecules from any chosen direction and distance and allows quantitative analysis such as determination of distances, curvature, persistence length, and writhe of DNA molecules in solution.

Developing an Effective Construction Training Program for Hispanic and American Supervisors and Craft Workers, 2007

Hispanics are a large and growing part of the United States workforce. Projections of the U.S. Census Bureau (2001) state that, by the year 2050, Hispanics will account for 25% of the population. For the Midwest in particular, the Hispanic population is expected to increase 35% by the year 2025. The construction industry is expected to experience a greater percentage increase of its Hispanic population, due to the labor-intensive nature of the industry. This study addresses the expected increase of Hispanic workers in the construction industry by testing the best approaches for delivering training to construction crews with Hispanic workers as well as American supervisors and laborers in the state of Iowa. The research methodology consisted of assessing the effects on communication, safety, work environment, and productivity as a result of the integration training. Results show that integration on-site training decreases workers’ desire to move and increases quality of work and productivity. Most importantly, experimental design was used to show the increasing levels of direct construction communication due to the Toolbox Integration Course for Hispanic Workers and American Supervisors (TICHA) designed as part of this project. This study recommends the creation of a quasi-governmental or association program that can offer continuous research and training that can benefit the construction industry as well as society as a whole. The industry involvement in this process is crucial for contractors. Not only do contractors benefit from reduced insurance premiums when workers act safely, but workers with better communication skills are more productive.

Neurophysiological effects of vasopressin and oxytocin in the central amygdala of the rat : a potential mechanism for the opposite modulation of anxiety and fear behavior

Abstract The amygdala is a group of nuclei in the temporal lobe of the brain that plays a crucial role in anxiety and fear behavior. Sensory information converges in the basolateral and lateral nuclei of the amygdala, which have been the first regions in the brain where the acquisition of new (fear) memories has been associated with long term changes in synaptic transmission. These nuclei, in turn, project to the central nucleus of the amygdala. The central amygdala, through its extensive projections to numerous nuclei in the midbrain and brainstem, plays a pivotal role in the orchestration of the rapid autonomic and endocrine fear responses. In the central amygdala a large number of neuropeptides and receptors is expressed, among which high levels of vasopressin and oxytocin receptors. Local injections of these peptides into the amygdala modulate several aspects of the autonomic fear reaction. Interestingly, their effects are opposing: vasopressin tends to enhance the fear reactions, whereas oxytocin has anxiolytic effects. In order to investigate the neurophysiological mechanisms that could underlie this opposing modulation of the fear behavior, we studied the effects of vasopressin and oxytocin on the neuronal activity in an acute brain slice preparation of the rat central amygdala. We first assessed the effects of vasopressin and oxytocin on the spontaneous activity of central amygdala neurons. Extracellular single unit recordings revealed two major populations of neurons: a majority of neurons was excited by vasopressin and inhibited by oxytocin, whereas other neurons were only excited by oxytocin receptor activation. The inhibitory effect of oxytocin could be reduced by the block of GABAergic transmission, whereas the excitatory effects of vasopressin and oxytocin were not affected. In a second step we identified the cellular mechanisms for the excitatory effects of both peptides as well as the morphological and biochemical mechanisms underlying the opposing effects, by using sharp electrode recordings together with intracellular labelings. We revealed that oxytocin-excited neurons are localized in the lateral part (CeL) whereas vasopressin excited cells are found in the medial part of the central amygdala (CeM). The tracing of the neuronal morphology showed that the axon collaterals of the oxytocin-excited neurons project from the CeL, far into the CeM. Combined immunohistochemical stainings indicated that these projections are GABAergic. In the third set of experiments we investigated the synaptic interactions between the two identified cell populations. Whole-cell patch-clamp recordings in the CeM revealed that the inhibitory effect of oxytocin was caused by the massive increase of inhibitory GABAergic currents, which was induced by the activation of CeL neurons. Finally, the effects of vasopressin and oxytocin on evoked activity were investigated. We found on the one hand, that the probability of evoking action potentials in the CeM by stimulating the basolateral amygdala afferents was enhanced under vasopressin, whereas it decreased under oxytocin. On the other hand, the impact of cortical afferents stimulation on the CeL neurons was enhanced by oxytocin application. Taken together, these findings have allowed us to develop a model, in which the opposing behavioral effects of vasopressin and oxytocin are caused by a selective activation of two distinct populations of neurons in the GABAergic network of the central amygdala. Our model could help to develop new anxiolytic treatments, which modulate simultaneously both receptor systems. By acting on a GABAergic network, such treatments can further be tuned by combinations with classical benzodiazepines. Résumé: L'amygdale est un groupe de noyaux cérébraux localisés dans le lobe temporal. Elle joue un rôle essentiel dans les comportements liés à la peur et l'anxiété. L'information issue des aires sensorielles converge vers les noyaux amygdaliens latéraux et basolatéraux, qui sont les projections vers différents noyaux du tronc cérébral et de l'hypothalamus, joue un rôle clef premières régions dans lesquelles il a été démontré que l'acquisition d'une nouvelle mémoire (de peur) était associée à des changements à long terme de la transmission synaptique. Ces noyaux envoient leurs projections sur l'amygdale centrale, qui à travers ses propres dans l'orchestration des réponses autonomes et endocrines de peur. Le contrôle de l'activité neuronale dans l'amygdale centrale module fortement la réaction de peur. Ainsi, un grand nombre de neuropeptides sont spécifiquement exprimés dans l'amygdale centrale et un bon nombre d'entre eux interfère dans la réaction de peur et d'anxiété. Chez les rats, une forte concentration de récepteurs à l'ocytocine et à la vasopressine est exprimée dans le noyau central, et l'injection de ces peptides dans l'amygdale influence différents aspects de la réaction viscérale associée à la peur. Il est intéressant de constater que ces peptides exercent des effets opposés. Ainsi, la vasopressine augmente la réaction de peur alors que l'ocytocine a un effet anxiolytique. Afin d'investiguer les mécanismes neurophysiologiques responsables de ces effets opposés, nous avons étudié l'effet de la vasopressine et de l'ocytocine sur l'activité neuronale de préparations de tranches de cerveau de rats contenant entre autres de l'amygdale centrale. Tout d'abord, notre intérêt s'est porté sur les effets de ces deux neuropeptides sur l'activité spontanée dans l'amygdale centrale. Des enregistrements extracellulaires ont révélé différentes populations de neurones ; une majorité était excitée par la vasopressine et inhibée par l'ocytocine ; d'autres étaient seulement excités par l'activation du récepteur à l'ocytocine. L'effet inhibiteur de l'ocytocine a pu être réduit par l'inhibition de la transmission GABAergique, alors que ses effets excitateurs n'étaient pas affectés. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons identifié les mécanismes cellulaires responsables de l'effet excitateur de ces deux peptides et analysé les caractéristiques morphologiques et biochimiques des neurones affectés. Des enregistrements intracellulaires ont permis de localiser les neurones excités par l'ocytocine dans la partie latérale de l'amygdale centrale (CeL), et ceux excités par la vasopressine dans sa partie médiale (CeM). Le traçage morphologique des neurones a révélé que les collatérales axonales des cellules excitées par l'ocytocine projetaient du CeL loin dans le CeM. De plus, des colorations immuno-histochimiques ont révélé que ces projections étaient GABAergiques. Dans un troisième temps, nous avons étudié les interactions synaptiques entre ces deux populations de cellules. Les enregistrements en whole-cell patch-clamp dans le CeM ont démontré que les effets inhibiteurs de l'ocytocine résultaient de l'augmentation massive des courants GABAergique résultant de l'activation des neurones dans le CeL. Finalement, les effets de l'ocytocine et de la vasopressine sur l'activité évoquée ont été étudiés. Nous avons pu montrer que la probabilité d'évoquer un potentiel d'action dans le CeM, par stimulation de l'amygdale basolatérale, était augmentée sous l'effet de la vasopressine et diminuée sous l'action de l'ocytocine. Par contre, l'impact de la stimulation des afférences corticales sur les neurones du CeL était augmenté par l'application de l'ocytocine. L'ensemble de ces résultats nous a permis de développer un modèle dans lequel les effets comportementaux opposés de la vasopressine et de l'ocytocine sont causés par une activation sélective des deux différentes populations de neurones dans un réseau GABAergique. Un tel modèle pourrait mener au développement de nouveaux traitements anxiolytiques en modulant l'activité des deux récepteurs simultanément. En agissant sur un réseau GABAergique, les effets d'un tel traitement pourraient être rendus encore plus sélectifs en association avec des benzodiazépines classiques.

Protective effect of intravitreal injection of vasoactive intestinal peptide-loaded liposomes on experimental autoimmune uveoretinitis.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a single intravitreal (i.v.t.) injection of vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) loaded in rhodamine-conjugated liposomes (VIP-Rh-Lip) on experimental autoimmune uveoretinitis (EAU). METHODS: An i.v.t. injection of VIP-Rh-Lip, saline, VIP, or empty-(E)-Rh-Lip was performed simultaneously, either 6 or 12 days after footpad immunization with retinal S-antigen in Lewis rats. Clinical and histologic scores were determined. Immunohistochemistry and cytokine quantification by multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay were performed in ocular tissues. Systemic immune response was determined at day 20 postimmunization by measuring proliferation and cytokine secretion of cells from inguinal lymph nodes (ILNs) draining the immunization site, specific delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH), and the serum concentration of cytokines. Ocular and systemic biodistribution of VIP-Rh-Lip was studied in normal and EAU rats by immunofluorescence. RESULTS: The i.v.t. injection of VIP-Rh-Lip performed during the afferent, but not the efferent, phase of the disease reduced clinical EAU and protected against retinal damage. No effect was observed after saline, E-Rh-Lip, or VIP injection. VIP-Rh-Lip and VIP were detected in intraocular macrophages and in lymphoid organs. In VIP-Rh-Lip-treated eyes, macrophages expressed transforming growth factor-beta2, low levels of major histocompatibility complex class II, and nitric oxide synthase-2. T-cells showed activated caspase-3 with the preservation of photoreceptors. Intraocular levels of interleukin (IL)-2, interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), IL-17, IL-4, GRO/KC, and CCL5 were reduced with increased IL-13. At the systemic level, treatment reduced retinal soluble autoantigen lymphocyte proliferation, decreased IL-2, and increased IL-10 in ILN cells, and diminished specific DTH and serum concentration of IL-12 and IFN-gamma. CONCLUSIONS: An i.v.t. injection of VIP-Rh-Lip, performed during the afferent stage of immune response, reduced EAU pathology through the immunomodulation of intraocular macrophages and deviant stimulation of T-cells in ILN. Thus, the encapsulation of VIP within liposomes appears as an effective strategy to deliver VIP into the eye and is an efficient means of the prevention of EAU severity.

Bilateral transitory projection to visual areas from auditory cortex in kittens.

A transitory projection from primary and secondary auditory areas to the contralateral and ipsilateral areas 17 and 18 exists in newborn kittens. Distinct neuronal populations project to ipsilateral areas 17-18, contralateral areas 17-18 and contralateral auditory cortex; they are at different depth in layers II, III, and IV. By postnatal day 38 the auditory to visual projections have been lost, apparently by elimination of axons rather than by neuronal death. While it was previously reported that the elimination of transitory axons is responsible for focusing the origin of callosal connections to restricted portions of sensory areas it now appears that similar events play a more general role in the organization of cortico-cortical networks. Indeed, the elimination of juvenile projections is largely responsible for determining which areas will be connected in the adult.

Approximate polytope ensemble for one-class classification

In this work, a new one-class classification ensemble strategy called approximate polytope ensemble is presented. The main contribution of the paper is threefold. First, the geometrical concept of convex hull is used to define the boundary of the target class defining the problem. Expansions and contractions of this geometrical structure are introduced in order to avoid over-fitting. Second, the decision whether a point belongs to the convex hull model in high dimensional spaces is approximated by means of random projections and an ensemble decision process. Finally, a tiling strategy is proposed in order to model non-convex structures. Experimental results show that the proposed strategy is significantly better than state of the art one-class classification methods on over 200 datasets.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Effect of repetitive arm cycling following botulinum toxin injection for poststroke spasticity: evidence from FMRI.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Investigations were performed to establish if repetitive arm cycling training enhances the antispastic effect of intramuscular botulinum toxin (BTX) injections in postischemic spastic hemiparesis. Effects on cerebral activation were evaluated by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). METHODS: Eight chronic spastic hemisyndrome patients (49 ± 10 years) after middle cerebral artery infarction (5.5 ± 2.7 years) were investigated. BTX was injected into the affected arm twice, 6 months apart. Spasticity was assessed using the Ashworth Scale and range of motion before and 3 months after BTX injections. Images were analyzed using Brain Voyager QX 1.8, and fMRI signal changes were corrected for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: During passive movements of affected and nonaffected hands, fMRI activity was increased bilaterally in the sensorimotor cortex (MISI), secondary somatosensory areas (SII), and supplementary motor area predominantly in the contralesional hemisphere, compared with the rest. Following repetitive arm cycling, fMRI activity increased further in MISI of the lesioned hemisphere and SII of the contralesional hemisphere. For patients with residual motor activity, treatment-related fMRI activity increases were associated with reduced spasticity; in completely plegic patients, there was no fMRI activity change in SII but increased spasticity after training. CONCLUSION: Increased activity in SII of the contralesional hemisphere and in MISI of the lesioned hemisphere reflect a treatment-induced effect in the paretic arm. It is hypothesized that the increased BOLD activity results from increased afferent information related to the antispastic BTX effect reinforced by training.

Neuronal death in the development of the vertebrate central nervous system

Neuronal death occurs naturally in the development of the vertebrate central nervous system, deleting large numbers of neurons at the time when afferent and efferent connections are being formed. It is these that regulate it, by means of anterograde and retrograde survival signals that depend on trophic molecules and electrical activity. Possible roles include the regulation of neuronal numbers (numerical matching) and the elimination of axonal targeting errors.

The effects of losartan on renal function in the newborn rabbit.

The low GFR of newborns is maintained by various factors including the renin-angiotensin system. We previously established the importance of angiotensin II in the newborn kidney, using the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor perindoprilat. The present study was designed to complement these observations by evaluating the role of angiotensin-type 1 (AT(1)) receptors, using losartan, a specific AT(1)-receptor blocker. Increasing doses of losartan were infused into anesthetized, ventilated, newborn rabbits. Renal function and hemodynamic variables were assessed using inulin and para-aminohippuric acid clearances as markers of GFR and renal plasma flow, respectively. Losartan 0.1 mg/kg slightly decreased mean blood pressure (-11%) and increased diuresis (+22%). These changes can be explained by inhibition of the AT(1)-mediated vasoconstrictive and antidiuretic effects of angiotensin, and activation of vasodilating and diuretic AT(2) receptors widely expressed in the neonatal period. GFR and renal blood flow were not modified. Losartan 0.3 mg/kg decreased mean blood pressure significantly (-15%), probably by inhibiting systemic AT(1) receptors. GFR significantly decreased (-25%), whereas renal blood flow remained stable. The decrease in filtration fraction (-21%) indicates predominant efferent vasodilation. At 3 mg/kg, the systemic hypotensive effect of losartan was marked (mean blood pressure, -28%), with decreased GFR and renal blood flow (-57% and -51%, respectively), a stable filtration fraction, and an increase in renal vascular resistance by 124%. The renal response to this dose can be considered as reflex vasoconstriction of afferent and efferent arterioles, rather than specific receptor antagonism. We conclude that under physiologic conditions, the renin-angiotensin is critically involved in the maintenance of GFR in the immature kidney.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.