Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Evaluation of knowledge management performance: An organic approach

Knowledge management (KM) strategy is the planned or actual coordination of a firm's major goals and learning in time; this coordination continually co-aligns the firm's knowledge-based resources with the environment. Based on the organic perspective of strategy, a KM performance evaluation approach should be able to 1) review the knowledge governance mechanisms and learning routines that underpin the KM strategy, as well as the performance outcomes driven by the strategy, and 2) predict the evolution of performance drivers and outcomes into the future to facilitate strategic planning. This study combined a survey study and a system dynamics (SD) simulation to demonstrate the transformation from a mechanistic to an organic perspective on KM strategy and performance evaluation. The survey study was conducted based on a sample of 143 construction contractors and used structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques to develop a KM performance index for reviewing the key elements that underpin KM strategy. The SD simulation predicted the development of KM strategy configurations and the evolution of KM performance over time. The organic KM performance evaluation approach demonstrated by this study has significant potential to improve the alignment of KM strategy within an increasingly dynamic business environment.

Cultivation medium design via elemental balancing for tetraselmis suecica

The primary requirements for high-biomass-concentration microalgal cultivation include a photon source and distribution, efficient gas exchange and suitable growth medium composition. However, for mass outdoor production of microalgae, growth medium composition is a major controlling factor as most of the other factors such as light source and distribution are virtually uncontrollable. This work utilises an elemental balance approach between growth medium and biomass compositions to obtain high-density microalgal cultures in an open system. F medium, commonly used for the cultivation of marine microalgae such as Tetraselmis suecica was redesigned on the basis of increasing the biomass capacity of its major deficient components to support high biomass concentrations (τ ∼ 5.0 % for N, S and τ ∼ 10 % P), and the entire formulation was dissolved in 0.2 um sterile filtered natural seawater. Results show that the new medium (F') displayed a maximum biomass concentration and total lipid concentration of 1.29 g L 1 and 108.7 mg L 1 respectively, which represents over 2-fold increase compared to that of the F medium. Keeping all variables constant except growth medium, and using F medium as the base case of 1 medium cost (MC) unit mg -1 lipid, the F' medium yielded lipid at a cost of only 0.35 MC unit mg -1 lipids. These results show that greater amounts of biomass and lipids can be obtained more economically with minimal extra effort simply by using an optimised growth medium.

‘It’s about finding a way’ : children, sites of opportunity, and building everyday peace in Colombia

The multiple forms of violence associated with protracted conflict disproportionately affect young people. Literature on conflict-affected children often focuses on the need to provide stability and security through institutions such as schools but rarely considers how young people themselves see these sites as part of their everyday lives. The enduring, pervasive, and complex nature of Colombia’s conflict means many young Colombians face the challenges of poverty, persistent social exclusion, and violence. Such conditions are exacerbated in ‘informal’ barrio communities such as los Altos de Cazucá, just south of the capital Bogotá. Drawing on field research in this community, particularly through interviews conducted with young people aged 10 to 17 this article explores how young people themselves understand the roles of the local school and ngo in their personal conceptualisations of the violence in their everyday lives. The evidence indicates that children use spaces available to them opportunistically and that these actions can and should be read as contributing to local, everyday forms of peacebuilding. The ways in which institutional spaces are understood and used by young people as ‘sites of opportunity’ challenges the assumed illegitimacy of young people’s voices and experiences in these environments.

The Threshold Learning Outcome on self-management for the Bachelor of Laws degree : a proposed focus for teaching strategies in the first year law curriculum

The Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC) Discipline Scholars for Law, Professors Sally Kift and Mark Israel, articulated six Threshold Learning Outcomes (TLOs) for the Bachelor of Laws degree as part of the ALTC’s 2010 project on Learning and Teaching Academic Standards. One of these TLOs promotes the learning, teaching and assessment of self-management skills in Australian law schools. This paper explores the concept of self-management and how it can be relevantly applied in the first year of legal education. Recent literature from the United States (US) and Australia provides insights into the types of issues facing law students, as well as potential antidotes to these problems. Based on these findings, I argue that designing a pedagogical framework for the first year law curriculum that promotes students’ connection with their intrinsic interests, values, motivations and purposes will facilitate student success in terms of their personal well-being, ethical dispositions and academic engagement.

Do instructional attributes pose multicollinearity problems? An empirical exploration

It is commonly perceived that variables ‘measuring’ different dimensions of teaching (construed as instructional attributes) used in student evaluation of teaching (SET) questionnaires are so highly correlated that they pose a serious multicollinearity problem for quantitative analysis including regression analysis. Using nearly 12000 individual student responses to SET questionnaires and ten key dimensions of teaching and 25 courses at various undergraduate and postgraduate levels for multiple years at a large Australian university, this paper investigates whether this is indeed the case and if so under what circumstances. This paper tests this proposition first by examining variance inflation factors (VIFs), across courses, levels and over time using individual responses; and secondly by using class averages. In the first instance, the paper finds no sustainable evidence of multicollinearity. While, there were one or two isolated cases of VIFs marginally exceeding the conservative threshold of 5, in no cases did the VIFs for any of the instructional attributes come anywhere close to the high threshold value of 10. In the second instance, however, the paper finds that the attributes are highly correlated as all the VIFs exceed 10. These findings have two implications: (a) given the ordinal nature of the data ordered probit analysis using individual student responses can be employed to quantify the impact of instructional attributes on TEVAL score; (b) Data based on class averages cannot be used for probit analysis. An illustrative exercise using level 2 undergraduate courses data suggests higher TEVAL scores depend first and foremost on improving explanation, presentation, and organization of lecture materials.

Watermarking capacity control for dynamic payload embedding

Despite significant improvements in capacity-distortion performance, a computationally efficient capacity control is still lacking in the recent watermarking schemes. In this paper, we propose an efficient capacity control framework to substantiate the notion of watermarking capacity control to be the process of maintaining “acceptable” distortion and running time, while attaining the required capacity. The necessary analysis and experimental results on the capacity control are reported to address practical aspects of the watermarking capacity problem, in dynamic (size) payload embedding.

U v U [2002] HCA 36: Commentary

This commentary offers a feminist analysis of relocation cases through the lens of U v U [2002] HCA 36, and with reference to the re-written judgment for the Australian Feminist Judgments project. First, the commentary considers the gendered nature of relocation cases, and analyses aspects of the reasoning and outcome of U v U that are of concern from a feminist perspective. Second, the commentary discusses how the re-written judgment addresses these concerns, thereby offering a feminist judgment on the issue of relocation in family law.

The impact of intense training on endogenous estrogen and progesterone concentrations and bone mineral acquisition in adolescent rowers

The effect of 18 months of training on the ovarian hormone concentrations and bone mineral density (BMD) accrual was assessed longitudinally in 14 adolescent rowers and 10 matched controls, aged 14–15 years. Ovarian hormone levels were assessed by urinary estrone glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG) excretion rates, classifying the menstrual cycles as ovulatory or anovulatory. Total body (TB), total proximal femur (PF), femoral neck (FN) and lumbar spine (LS) (L2–4) bone mass were measured at baseline and 18 months using dual-energy X-ray densitometry. Results were expressed as bone mineral content (BMC), BMD and bone mineral apparent density (BMAD). Five rowers had anovulatory menstrual cycles compared with zero prevalence for the control subjects. Baseline TB BMD was significantly higher in the ovulatory rowers, with PF BMD, FN BMD and LS BMD similar for all groups. At completion, the LS bone accrual of the ovulatory rowers was significantly greater (BMC 8.1%, BMD 6.2%, BMAD 6.2%) than that of the anovulatory rowers (BMC 1.1%, BMD 3.9%, BMAD 1.6%) and ovulatory controls (BMC 0.5%, BMD 1.1%, BMAD 1.1%). No difference in TB, PF or FN bone accrual was observed among groups. This study demonstrated an osteogenic response to mechanical loading, with the rowers accruing greater bone mass than the controls at the lumbar spine. However, the exercise-induced osteogenic benefits were less when rowing training was associated with low estrogen and progesterone metabolite excretion.

The doomsday vault: Seed banks, food security, and climate change

"It could easily provide the back-drop for a James Bond movie. Deep inside a mountain near the North Pole, down a fortified tunnel, and behind airlocked doors in a vault frozen to -18 degrees Celsius, scientists are squirreling away millions of seed samples. The samples constitute the very foundation of agriculture, the biological diversity needed so the world's major food crops can adapt to the next pest or disease, or to climate change. It's little wonder that the Svalbard Global Seed Vault has captured the public's imagination more than almost any agricultural topic in recent years. Popular press reports about the ‘Doomsday Vault,’ however, typically mask the complexity of the endeavor and, if anything, underestimate its practical utility." Cary Fowler This chapter considers the use of seed banks to address concerns about intellectual property, climate change and food security. It has a number of themes. First of all, it is interested in the use of ‘Big Science’ projects to address pressing global scientific concerns and Millennium Development Goals. Second, it highlights the increasing use of banks as a means of managing both property and intellectual property across a wide range of fields of agriculture and biotechnology. Third, it considers the linkage of intellectual property, access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. There are a variety of positions in this debate. Some see requirements in respect of access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as an inconvenient burden for science and commerce. Others defend access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as meaningful and productive. Those inclined to somewhat more conspiratorial views suggest that access to genetic resources and benefit sharing are a ruse to facilitate biopiracy. This chapter has a number of components. Section I focuses upon the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) network – often raised as a model for Climate Innovation Centres. Section II considers the Svalbard Global Seed Vault – the so-called Doomsday Vault. After a consideration of the World Summit on Food Security in 2009, it is concluded in this chapter that any future international agreement on climate change needs to address intellectual property, plant genetic resources and food security.

Bias-dependent effects in planar perovskite solar cells based on CH3NH3PbI3−xClx films

A unique bias-dependent phenomenon in CH3NH3PbI3−xClx based planar perovskite solar cells has been demonstrated, in which the photovoltaic parameters derived from the current–voltage (I–V) curves are highly dependent on the initial positive bias of the I–V measurement. In FTO/CH3NH3PbI3−xClx/Au devices, the open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current increased by ca. 337.5% and 281.9% respectively, by simply increasing the initial bias from 0.5 V to 2.5 V.

Genomic architecture of ecologically divergent body shape in a pair of sympatric crater lake cichlid fishes

Determining the genetic bases of adaptations and their roles in speciation is a prominent issue in evolutionary biology. Cichlid fish species flocks are a prime example of recent rapid radiations, often associated with adaptive phenotypic divergence from a common ancestor within a short period of time. In several radiations of freshwater fishes, divergence in ecomorphological traits - including body shape, colour, lips and jaws - is thought to underlie their ecological differentiation, specialization and, ultimately, speciation. The Midas cichlid species complex (Amphilophus spp.) of Nicaragua provides one of the few known examples of sympatric speciation where species have rapidly evolved different but parallel morphologies in young crater lakes. This study identified significant QTL for body shape using SNPs generated via ddRAD sequencing and geometric morphometric analyses of a cross between two ecologically and morphologically divergent, sympatric cichlid species endemic to crater Lake Apoyo: an elongated limnetic species (Amphilophus zaliosus) and a high-bodied benthic species (Amphilophus astorquii). A total of 453 genome-wide informative SNPs were identified in 240 F-2 hybrids. These markers were used to construct a genetic map in which 25 linkage groups were resolved. Seventy-two segregating SNPs were linked to 11 QTL. By annotating the two most highly supported QTL-linked genomic regions, genes that might contribute to divergence in body shape along the benthic-limnetic axis in Midas cichlid sympatric adaptive radiations were identified. These results suggest that few genomic regions of large effect contribute to early stage divergence in Midas cichlids.

Defining a developmental subtype of bipolar disorder in a sample of nonreferred adults by age at onset

Objective To test the hypothesis that the age at onset of bipolar disorder would identify a developmental subtype of bipolar disorder in adults characterized by increased levels of irritability, chronic course, rapid cycling, and comorbidity with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Methods Forty-four adult subjects diagnosed with bipolar disorder were selected from large family studies of youth with and without attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. These subjects were stratified by the age at onset in childhood (younger than 13 years; n = 8, 18%), adolescence (13–18 years; n = 12, 27%, or adulthood (older than 19 years; n = 24, 55%). All subjects were administered structure diagnostic interviews and a brief cognitive battery. Results In contrast with adult-onset bipolar disorder, child-onset bipolar disorder was associated with a longer duration of illness, more irritability than euphoria, a mixed presentation, a more chronic or rapid-cycling course, and increased comorbidity with childhood disruptive behavior disorders and anxiety disorders. Conclusion Stratification by age at onset of bipolar disorder identified subgroups of adult subjects with differing clinical correlates. This pattern of correlates is consistent with findings documented in children with pediatric bipolar disorder and supports the hypothesis that child-onset bipolar disorder may represent a developmental subtype of the disorder.

Pesticide discharge and water management in a paddy catchment in Japan

Concentrations of several pesticides were monitored in a paddy block and in the Kose river, which drains a paddy catchment in Fukuoka prefecture, Japan. Detailed water management in the block was also monitored to evaluate its effect on the pesticide contamination. The concentrations of applied pesticides in both block irrigation channel and drainage canal increased to tens of μg/L shortly after their applications. The increase in pesticide concentrations was well correlated with the open of irrigation and drainage gates in the pesticide-applied paddy plots only 1–3 days after pesticide application. High concentration of other pesticides, mainly herbicides, was also observed in the inflow irrigation and drainage waters, confirming the popularity of early irrigation and drainage after pesticide application in the area. The requirement of holding water after pesticide application (as a best management practice) issued by the authority was thus not properly followed. In a larger scale of the paddy catchment, the concentration of pesticides also increased significantly to several μg/L in the water of the Kose river shortly after the start of the pesticide application period either in downstream or mid–upstream areas, confirming the effect of current water management to the water quality. More extension and enforcement on water management should be done in order to control pesticide pollution from rice cultivation in Japan.

Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: A Mendelian randomisation analysis

Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1α and IL-1β); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0·22 SD (95% CI 0·18–0·25; 12·5%; p=9·3 × 10−33), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0·02 SD (−0·04 to −0·01; −1·7%; p=3·5 × 10−3), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0·03 SD (−0·04 to −0·02; −3·4%; p=7·7 × 10−14). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·15 (1·08–1·22; p=1·8 × 10−6) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1·03 (1·02–1·04; p=3·9 × 10−10). Per-allele odds ratios were 0·97 (0·95–0·99; p=9·9 × 10−4) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0·99 (0·97–1·01; p=0·47) for type 2 diabetes, 1·00 (0·98–1·02; p=0·92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1·08 (1·04–1·12; p=1·8 × 10−5) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1α/β inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.