Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Emotion perception and talker discrimination in pediatric hearing aid users

The primary goal of this study is to examine the ability of pediatric hearing-aid listeners, with mild to moderately-severe hearing loss, to perceive emotion and to discriminate talkers. These listeners’ performance is compared to that of similarly-aged listeners with normal hearing and who use cochlear implants.

Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics VLT imaging of the distant old open cluster FSR 1415

We employ the recently installed near-infrared Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics demonstrator (MAD) to determine the basic properties of a newly identified, old and distant, Galactic open cluster (FSR 1415). The MAD facility remarkably approaches the diffraction limit, reaching a resolution of 0.07 arcsec (in K), that is also uniform in a field of similar to 1.8 arcmin in diameter. The MAD facility provides photometry that is 50 per cent complete at K similar to 19. This corresponds to about 2.5 mag below the cluster main-sequence turn-off. This high-quality data set allows us to derive an accurate heliocentric distance of 8.6 kpc, a metallicity close to solar and an age of similar to 2.5 Gyr. On the other hand, the deepness of the data allows us to reconstruct (completeness-corrected) mass functions (MFs) indicating a relatively massive cluster, with a flat core MF. The Very Large Telescope/MAD capabilities will therefore provide fundamental data for identifying/analysing other faint and distant open clusters in the Galaxy III and IV quadrants.

Gas-Phase Acylium Ion Transfer Reactions Mediated by a Proton Shuttle Mechanism

The mechanism and the energy profile of the gas-phase reaction that mimics esterification under acidic conditions have been investigated at different levels of theory. These reactions are known to proceed with rate constants close to the collision limit in the gas-phase and questions have been raised as to whether the typical addition-elimination mechanism via a tetrahedral intermediate can explain the ease of these processes. Because these reactions are common to many organic and biochemical processes it is important to understand the intrinsic reactivity of these systems. Our calculations at different levels of theory reveal that a stepwise mechanism via a tetrahedral species is characterized by energy barriers that are inconsistent with the experimental results. For the thermoneutral exchange between protonated acetic acid and water and the exothermic reaction of protonated acetic acid and methanol our calculations show that these reactions proceed initially by a proton shuttle between the carbonyl oxygen and the hydroxy oxygen of acetic acid mediated by water, or methanol, followed by displacement at the acylium ion center. These findings suggest that the reactions in the gas-phase should be viewed as an acylium ion transfer reaction. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem 111: 1596-1606, 2011

Identifiering av parametrar till ackumulatortanken Solus1050 från consolar - en metodbeskrivning

This report describes the work done creating a computer model of a kombi tank from Consolar. The model was created with Presim/Trnsys and Fittrn and DF were used to identify the parameters. Measurements were carried out and were used to identify the values of the parameters in the model. The identifications were first done for every circuit separately. After that, all parameters are normally identified together using all the measurements. Finally the model should be compared with other measurements, preferable realistic ones. The two last steps have not yet been carried out, because of problems finding a good model for the domestic hot water circuit.The model of the domestic hot water circuit give relatively good results for low flows at 5 l/min, but is not good for higher flows. In the report suggestions for improving the model are given. However, there was not enough time to test this within the project as much time was spent trying to solve problems with the model crashing. Suggestions for improving the model for the domestic circuit are given in chapter 4.4. The improved equations that are to be used in the improved model are given by equation 4.18, 4.19 and 4.22.Also for the boiler circuit and the solar circuit there are improvements that can be done. The model presented here has a few shortcomings, but with some extra work, an improved model can be created. In the attachment (Bilaga 1) is a description of the used model and all the identified parameters.A qualitative assessment of the store was also performed based on the measurements and the modelling carried out. The following summary of this can be given: Hot Water PreparationThe principle for controlling the flow on the primary side seems to work well in order to achieve good stratification. Temperatures in the bottom of the store after a short use of hot water, at a coldwater temperature of 12°C, was around 28-30°C. This was almost independent of the temperature in the store and the DHW-flow.The measured UA-values of the heat exchangers are not very reliable, but indicates that the heat transfer rates are much better than for the Conus 500, and in the same range as for other stores tested at SERC.The function of the mixing valve is not perfect (see diagram 4.3, where Tout1 is the outlet hot water temperature, and Tdhwo and Tdhw1 is the inlet temperature to the hot and cold side of the valve respectively). The outlet temperature varies a lot with different temperatures in the storage and is going down from 61°C to 47°C before the cold port is fully closed. This gives a problem to find a suitable temperature setting and gives also a risk that the auxiliary heating is increased instead of the set temperature of the valve, when the hot water temperature is to low.Collector circuitThe UA-value of the collector heat exchanger is much higher than the value for Conus 500, and in the same range as the heat exchangers in other stores tested at SERC.Boiler circuitThe valve in the boiler circuit is used to supply water from the boiler at two different heights, depending on the temperature of the water. At temperatures from the boiler above 58.2°C, all the water is injected to the upper inlet. At temperatures below 53.9°C all the water is injected to the lower inlet. At 56°C the water flow is equally divided between the two inlets. Detailed studies of the behaviour at the upper inlet shows that better accuracy of the model would have been achieved using three double ports in the model instead of two. The shape of the upper inlet makes turbulence, that could be modelled using two different inlets. Heat lossesThe heat losses per m3 are much smaller for the Solus 1050, than for the Conus 500 Storage. However, they are higher than those for some good stores tested at SERC. The pipes that are penetrating the insulation give air leakage and cold bridges, which could be a major part of the losses from the storage. The identified losses from the bottom of the storage are exceptionally high, but have less importance for the heat losses, due to the lower temperatures in the bottom. High losses from the bottom can be caused by air leakage through the insulation at the pipe connections of the storage.

Improved Road Design for Future Maintenance - Analysis of Road Barrier Repair Costs

The cost of a road construction over its service life is a function of the design, quality of construction, maintenance strategies and maintenance operations. Unfortunately, designers often neglect a very important aspect which is the possibility to perform future maintenance activities. The focus is mainly on other aspects such as investment costs, traffic safety, aesthetic appearance, regional development and environmental effects. This licentiate thesis is a part of a Ph.D. project entitled “Road Design for lower maintenance costs” that aims to examine how the life-cycle costs can be optimized by selection of appropriate geometrical designs for the roads and their components. The result is expected to give a basis for a new method used in the road planning and design process using life-cycle cost analysis with particular emphasis on road maintenance. The project started with a review of literature with the intention to study conditions causing increased needs for road maintenance, the efforts made by the road authorities to satisfy those needs and the improvement potential by consideration of maintenance aspects during planning and design. An investigation was carried out to identify the problems which obstruct due consideration of maintenance aspects during the road planning and design process. This investigation focused mainly on the road planning and design process at the Swedish Road Administration. However, the road planning and design process in Denmark, Finland and Norway were also roughly evaluated to gain a broader knowledge about the research subject. The investigation was carried out in two phases: data collection and data analysis. Data was collected by semi-structured interviews with expert actors involved in planning, design and maintenance and by a review of design-related documents. Data analyses were carried out using a method called “Change Analysis”. This investigation revealed a complex combination of problems which result in inadequate consideration of maintenance aspects. Several urgent needs for changes to eliminate these problems were identified. Another study was carried out to develop a model for calculation of the repair costs for damages of different road barrier types and to analyse how factors such as road type, speed limits, barrier types, barrier placement, type of road section, alignment and seasonal effects affect the barrier damages and the associated repair costs. This study was carried out using a method called the “Case Study Research Method”. Data was collected from 1087 barrier repairs in two regional offices of the Swedish Road Administration, the Central Region and the Western Region. A table was established for both regions containing the repair cost per vehicle kilometre for different combinations of barrier types, road types and speed limits. This table can be used by the designers in the calculation of the life-cycle costs for different road barrier types.