Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

Occult hepatitis B virus infection in hemodialysis patients in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Persistence of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) genome in individuals negative for the HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) reflects occult infection. The aim of this study was to identify occult HBV infection among hemodialysis patients at 5 clinics in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil, between August 2006 and August 2007. METHODS: Serum samples underwent enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to investigate total antibodies against HBcAg (anti-HBc), HBsAg, and antibodies against HBsAg (anti-HBs). Samples that were HBsAg-negative were tested for total anti-HBc, and those that were positive for total anti-HBc were tested for anti-HBs. HBV DNA was investigated with an in-house PCR technique to identify samples positive for total anti-HBc. Subsequently, the samples positive for HBV DNA were sequenced to identify the genotype and mutations. RESULTS: The study population (n = 752) had a mean age of 50 15.1 years and included both sexes. All samples analyzed were negative for HBsAg. The seroprevalence of total anti-HBc was 26.7% (201/752), while that of anti-HBs was 67.2% (135/201). Total anti-HBc alone was detected in 5.7% of the patients. Occult infection was found in 1.5%, comprising genotypes A (33.3%, 1/3) and D (66.7%, 2/3). No mutations were found. CONCLUSIONS: The study detected occult hepatitis B virus infection in hemodialysis patients. Molecular studies on HBV are of fundamental importance because they identify patients that had been considered virus-negative but who, in reality, host the virus and have the ability to transmit it to other patients and staff.

Evaluating the potential of yeast strains to produce added value products for the food and/or pharmaceutical industries

This study focus in the valorization of the apple pomace with the main goal of obtaining added value products. For that, hot compressed water technology was used for the extraction of phenolic compounds and hydrolysis of polysaccharides presents in the lignocellulosic structure of apple pomace to obtain simple sugars. The sugars have been utilized as alternative carbon source for growth, lipid accumulation and carotenoids production by five different yeast Yarrowia lipolytica, Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, Rhodotorula glutinis, Rhodosporidium babjevae and Rhodosporidium toruloides. Hydrolysis experiments were carried out with constant pressure of 100 bar, flow rate of 2mL/min and temperatures between 50°C and 250°C. The amount of total sugars present in apple pomace hydrolysates showed maximum values for the hydrolysis temperatures of 110°C and 190°C. In fact, these temperatures revealed the best results regarding the monosaccharides quantities. The amount of 5-HMF and furfural in each hydrolysate varied through the different temperatures. Maximum values for 5-HMF were obtained with 170°C, while furfural showed to be maximum at 210°C. Extraction of phenolic compounds were performed in simultaneously with hydrolysis reactions. Total phenolic compounds (TPC) increased along the temperature, however with small variations between 170°C and 250°C. Hydrolysates were then used as alternative carbon source to yeast growth. R. mucilaginosa shows the highest optical density, with the hydrolysate obtained at 130°C. Carotenoids produced by these yeast scored a total of 7.02μg carotenoids/g cell dry weight, while for the control assay, the same yeast scored 9.31μg caratonoides/g cell dry weight. β-carotene was quantified by HPLC, were 33% of the carotenoid production by R. mucilaginosa with hydrolysate as carbon source, corresponded to β-caroteno.

Biochemical and nutritional evaluation of patients with visceral leishmaniasis before and after treatment with leishmanicidal drugs

Introduction Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by the intracellular protozoan Leishmania donovani complex. VL may be asymptomatic or progressive and is characterized by fever, anemia, weight loss and the enlargement of the spleen and liver. The nutritional status of the patients with VL is a major determinant of the progression, severity and mortality of the disease, as it affects the clinical progression of the disease. Changes in lipoproteins and plasma proteins may have major impacts in the host during infection. Thus, our goal was evaluate the serum total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), triglycerides, glucose, albumin, globulin and total protein levels, as well as the body composition, of VL patients before and after treatment. Methods Nutritional evaluation was performed using the bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to assess body composition. Biochemical data on the serum total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, triglycerides, glucose, albumin, globulin and total protein were collected from the medical charts of the patients. Results BIA indicated that both pre-treatment and post-treatment patients exhibited decreased phase angles compared to the controls, which is indicative of disease. Prior to treatment, the patients exhibited lower levels of total body water compared to the controls. Regarding the biochemical evaluation, patients with active VL exhibited lower levels of total cholesterol, HDL, LDL and albumin and higher triglyceride levels compared to patients after treatment and the controls. Treatment increased the levels of albumin and lipoproteins and decreased the triglyceride levels. Conclusions Our results suggest that patients with active VL present biochemical and nutritional changes that are reversed by treatment.

Urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants: value of urine culture by bag specimen collection

OBJETIVE: to evaluate the efficacy of urine culture by bag specimen for the detection of neonatal urinary tract infection in full-term newborn infants. Retrospective study (1997) including full-term newborn infants having a positive urine culture (>100,000 CFU/ml) by bag specimen collection. The urinary tract infection diagnosis was confirmed by positive urine culture (suprapubic bladder aspiration method). The select cases were divided into three groups, according to newborn infant age at the bag specimen collection: GI (< 48 h, n = 17), GII (48 h to 7 d, n = 35) and GIII (> 7 d, n = 9). Sixty one full-term newborn infants were studied (5.1 % of total infants). The diagnosis was confirmed on 19/61 (31.1 %) of full-term infants born alive. Distribution among the groups was: GI = 2/17 (11.8 %), GII = 10//35 (28.6 %), and GIII = 7/9 (77.7 %). The most relevant clinical symptoms were: fever (GI - 100 %, GII - 91.4 %) and weight loss (GI - 35.3 %, GII - 45.7 %). Urine culture results for specimens collected by suprapubic aspiration were: E. coli GI (100 %), GII (40 %) and GIII (28.6 %), E. faecalis GI (30%), Staphylococcus coagulase-negative GII (20 %) and GIII (42.8 %), and Staphylococcus aureus GII (10 %). Correlation between positive urine culture collection (bag specimen method) and urinary tract infection diagnosis, using relative risk analysis, produced the following results: GI=0.30 (CI95% 0.08-1.15), GII=0.51 (CI 95% 0.25-1.06) and GIII=3.31 (CI95% 1.8-6.06) The most frequent urinary tract infection clinical signs in the first week were fever and weight loss, while non-specific symptomatology occurred later. E. coli was most frequent infectious agent, although from the 7th day of life, staphylococcus was noted. The urine culture (bag specimen method) was effective in detecting urinary tract infection only after the 7th day of life.

Nutritional follow-up of critically ill infants receiving short term parenteral nutrition

Few studies have tried to characterize the efficacy of parenteral support of critically ill infants during short period of intensive care. We studied seventeen infants during five days of total parenteral hyperalimentation. Subsequently, according to the clinical conditions, the patients received nutritional support by parenteral, enteral route or both up to the 10th day. Evaluations were performed on the 1st, 5th, and 10th days. These included: clinical data (food intake and anthropometric measurements), haematological data (lymphocyte count), biochemical tests (albumin, transferrin, fibronectin, prealbumin, retinol-binding protein) and hormone assays (cortisol, insulin, glucagon). Anthropometric measurements revealed no significant difference between the first and second evaluations. Serum albumin and transferrin did not change significantly, but mean values of fibronectin (8.9 to 16 mg/dL), prealbumin (7.7 to 18 mg/dL), and retinol-binding protein (2.4 to 3.7 mg/dL) increased significantly (p < 0.05) from the 1st to the 10th day. The hormonal study showed no difference for insulin, glucagon, and cortisol when the three evaluations were compared. The mean value of the glucose/insulin ratio was of 25.7 in the 1st day and 15.5 in the 5th day, revealing a transitory supression of this hormone. Cortisol showed values above normal in the beginning of the study. We conclude that the anthropometric parameters were not useful due to the short time of the study; serum proteins, fibronectin, prealbumin, and retinol-binding protein were very sensitive indicators of nutritional status, and an elevated glucose/insulin ratio, associated with a slight tendency for increased cortisol levels suggest hypercatabolic state. The critically ill patient can benefit from an early metabolic support.

The importance of the ligation of the inferior thyroid artery in parathyroid function after subtotal thyroidectomy

We prospectively studied the effects of the ligation of the inferior thyroid artery (ITA) on postoperative hypoparathyroidism in 48 patients who underwent functional subtotal thyroidectomy. Patients were randomized into two groups: A, with bilateral ligation of the ITA and B, without ligation of the ITA. Parathyroid function was checked preoperatively and after surgery by clinical examination and measurement of total calcium, intact PTH, urinary calcium, and AMPc. RESULTS: A significant incidence of postoperative hypocalcemia occurred: 17% in group A and 13% in B on the 4th postoperative day. Six months later, the incidence was 5% in Group A and 0% in Group B. These differences were not statistically significant between the two groups, and neither were any of the other clinical and laboratory observations. CONCLUSION: The ligation of the ITA was not an important causal factor for the occurrence of postoperative hypocalcemia after subtotal thyroidectomy.

Cost of drugs manufactured by the University Hospital - role of the Central Pharmacy

The hospital pharmacy in large and advanced institutions has evolved from a simple storage and distribution unit into a highly specialized manipulation and dispensation center, responsible for the handling of hundreds of clinical requests, many of them unique and not obtainable from commercial companies. It was therefore quite natural that in many environments, a manufacturing service was gradually established, to cater to both conventional and extraordinary demands of the medical staff. That was the case of Hospital das Clinicas, where multiple categories of drugs are routinely produced inside the pharmacy. However, cost-containment imperatives dictate that such activities be reassessed in the light of their efficiency and essentiality. METHODS: In a prospective study, the output of the Manufacturing Service of the Central Pharmacy during a 12-month period was documented and classified into three types. Group I comprised drugs similar to commercially distributed products, Group II included exclusive formulations for routine consumption, and Group III dealt with special demands related to clinical investigations. RESULTS: Findings for the three categories indicated that these groups represented 34.4%, 45.3%, and 20.3% of total manufacture orders, respectively. Costs of production were assessed and compared with market prices for Group 1 preparations, indicating savings of 63.5%. When applied to the other groups, for which direct equivalent in market value did not exist, these results would suggest total yearly savings of over 5 100 000 US dollars. Even considering that these calculations leave out many components of cost, notably those concerning marketing and distribution, it might still be concluded that at least part of the savings achieved were real. CONCLUSIONS: The observed savings, allied with the convenience and reliability with which the Central Pharmacy performed its obligations, support the contention that internal manufacture of pharmaceutical formulations was a cost-effective alternative in the described setting.

Cataract surgery: expectations of patients assisted during a community project in São Paulo, state of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify social characteristics and expectations of individuals seen during a community project for the treatment of senile cataracts. Expected results from their eye surgery and its consequences to their quality of life were studied as well. METHODOLOGY: Cataract patients (visual acuity equal to or lower than 0.2 in the more superior eye) aged 50 years or over, were surveyed by means of interviews held during their visit at the Cataract Project in São Paulo city, State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 1999. RESULTS: The sample was composed of 331 subjects of low socioeconomic level ranging in age from 50 to 97 years (average = 71.8 years). Expectation of total recovery from the cataract condition by means of surgery was declared by 80.0% of the respondents, with no significant differences between male and female subjects (P < 0.1723). Hope to resume manual activities was expressed by 59.8%. CONCLUSION: A predominance of expectations of resuming normal activity and achieving a better quality of life after cataract surgery were identified.

Electrodialytic recovery of phosphorus and organic contaminants removal from sewage sludge

Phosphorus is a macronutrient essential to life which comes from phosphate rock, a non-renewable resource. Sewage sludge from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) is a secondary resource rich in phosphorus that can be valorized. However, organic compounds are detected in sewage sludge, due to its non-polar and hydrophobic character, being considered an environmental risk. The present dissertation aims to study the efficiency of the electrodialytic process (ED) when applied to sewage sludge aiming phosphorus recovery and organic contaminants removal. Four organic compounds were analyzed: 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), bisphenol A (BPA), caffeine (Caf) and oxybenzone (MBPh). The experiments took place in an ED cell with two compartments and an anion exchange membrane, with the sludge in the cathode compartment. The experiments were carried out for three days with spiked sewage sludge (six assays). One control experiment was done without current, three experiments were carried out applying a constant current of 50, 75, and 100 mA and two experiments were carried out applying sequential currents: 50 mA, 75 mA and 100 mA and the opposite (100-75-50 mA). A qualitative and quantitative analysis of microorganisms existing in the samples was also done. At the end, the pH increased in the sewage sludge favoring phosphorus recovery. In terms of phosphorus, the highest recovery was achieved in the experiment run with 100 mA, where 70.3±2.0% of total phosphorus was recovered in the electrolyte. Generally, compounds degradation was favored by the current. Caf and MBPh achieved degradation percentages of 96.2±0.2% and 84.8±1.3%, respectively, in 100 mA assay. EE2 (83.1±1.7%) and BPA (91.8±4.6%) degradations were favored by 50 mA current. A total of 35 taxa from four different groups were identified, totalizing between 81,600-273,000 individuals per gram of initial sludges. After ED, microbial community population decreased between 47-98%. Arcella gibbosa represented 61% of the total observed organisms and revealed to be more tolerant to medium changes.

On the standardization of the fishing effort

In this note we demonstrate that the use of an index to standardize the fishing effort using the cpue of a standard vessel or gear is mistaken, once the cpues- catch per unit of total effort after standardization is similar to cpues - catch per unit of effort of the standard vesel or gear arbitrarily chosen.

Structure and composition of the ground-herb community in a terra-firme Central Amazonian forest

The herb community of tropical forests is very little known, with few studies addressing its structure quantitatively. Even with this scarce body of information, it is clear that the ground herbs are a rich group, comprising 14 to 40% of the species found in total species counts in tropical forests. The present study had the objective of increasing the knowledge about the structure and composition of the ground-herb community and to compare the sites for which there are similar studies. The study was conducted in a tropical non-inundated and evergreen forest 90 km north of Manaus, AM. Ground herbs were surveyed in 22 transects of 40 m², distributed in five plots of 4 ha. The inventoried community was composed of 35 species, distributed in 24 genera and 18 families. Angiosperms were represented by 8 families and Pteridophytes by 10 families. Marantaceae (12 sp) and Cyperaceae (4 sp) were the richest families. Marantaceae and Poaceae were the families with greatest abundance and cover. Marantaceae, Poaceae, Heliconiaceae and Pteridophytes summed 96% of total herb cover, and therefore were responsible for almost all the cover of the community. The 10 most important species had 83.7% of the individuals. In general, the most abundant species were also the most frequent. Richness per transect varied from 7 to 19 species, and abundance varied from 30 to 114 individuals. The community structure was quite similar to 3 other sites in South America and one site in Asia.

On line pre-concentration for simultaneous determination of low molecular weight organic acids and inorganic anions in Amazonian river water samples employing ion chromatography with conductivity detection

An ion chromatography procedure, employing an IonPac AC15 concentrator column was used to investigate on line preconcentration for the simultaneous determination of inorganic anions and organic acids in river water. Twelve organic acids and nine inorganic anions were separated without any interference from other compounds and carry-over problems between samples. The injection loop was replaced by a Dionex AC15 concentrator column. The proposed procedure employed an auto-sampler that injected 1.5 ml of sample into a KOH mobile phase, generated by an Eluent Generator, at 1.5 mL min-1, which carried the sample to the chromatographic columns (one guard column, model AG-15, and one analytical column, model AS15, with 250 x 4mm i.d.). The gradient elution concentrations consisted of a 10.0 mmol l-1 KOH solution from 0 to 6.5 min, gradually increased to 45.0 mmol l-1 KOH at 21 min., and immediatelly returned and maintained at the initial concentrations until 24 min. of total run. The compounds were eluted and transported to an electro-conductivity detection cell that was attached to an electrochemical detector. The advantage of using concentrator column was the capability of performing routine simultaneous determinations for ions from 0.01 to 1.0 mg l-1 organic acids (acetate, propionic acid, formic acid, butyric acid, glycolic acid, pyruvate, tartaric acid, phthalic acid, methanesulfonic acid, valeric acid, maleic acid, oxalic acid, chlorate and citric acid) and 0.01 to 5.0 mg l-1 inorganic anions (fluoride, chloride, nitrite, nitrate, bromide, sulfate and phosphate), without extensive sample pretreatment and with an analysis time of only 24 minutes.

Comparison of oleate conversion under microaerophilic and anaerobic conditions

Excessive accumulation of Long Chain Fatty Acids (LCFA) in methanogenic bioreactors is the cause of process failure associated to a severe decrease in methane production. In particular, fast and persistent accumulation of palmitate is critical and still not elucidated. Aerobes or facultative anaerobes were detected in those reactors, raising new questions on LCFA biodegradation. To get insight into the influence of oxygen, two bioreactors were operated under microaerophilic and anaerobic conditions, with oleate at 1 and 4 gCOD/(L d). Palmitate accumulated up to 2 and 16 gCOD/L in the anaerobic and microaerophilic reactor, respectively, which shows the importance of oxygen in this conversion. A second experiment was designed to understand the dynamics of oleate to palmitate conversion. A CSTR and a PFR were assembled in series and fed with oleate under microaerophilic conditions. HRT from 6 to 24 h were applied in the CSTR, and 14 to 52 min in the PFR. In the PFR a biofilm was formed where palmitate accounted for 82% of total LCFA. Pseudomonas was the predominant genus (42 %) in this biofilm, highlighting the role of aerobic and facultative anaerobic bacteria in LCFA bioconversion.

Flood pulse and spatial dynamics of mercury in sediments in Puruzinho lake, Brazilian Amazon

The study was conducted in Puruzinho lake (Humaitá, AM) considering seasonal periods of rainy and dry in way to elucidate the flood pulse importance in the deposition, remobilization and distributions of mercury and organic matter in bottom sediments in the Madeira River Basin (Brazilian Amazon). Bottom sediments and soils samples were analyzed for total mercury and organic matter. Mercury concentrations obtained in bottom sediment were 32.20-146.40 ng g-1 and organic matter values were 3.5 - 18.0%. The main region for accumulation of mercury and organic matter was in the central and deepest lake area In the rainy season there was a greater distribution of Hg and organic matter, mainly controlled by means of income of the Madeira river water during flooding, while the predominant process in the dry season was the remobilization of total Hg due to the resuspension of bottom sediments.