Impact de la prophylaxie hormonale sur les fractures du fémur proximal des femmes postménopausiques: une étude de simulation. [Impact of hormonal prevention on fractures of the proximal femur in postmenopausal women: a simulation study].

A simulation model of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on hip fractures and their consequences is based on a population of 100,000 post-menopausal women. This cohort is confronted with literature derived probabilities of cancers (endometrium or breast, which are contra-indications to HRT), hip fracture, disability requiring nursing home or home care, and death. Administration of HRT for life prevents 55,5% of hip fractures, 22,6% of years with home care and 4,4% of years in nursing homes. If HRT is administered for 15 years, these results are 15,5%, 10% and 2,2%, respectively. A slight gain in life expectancy is observed for both durations of HRT. The net financial loss in the simulated population is 222 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.25) for lifelong administration of HRT, and 153 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.42) if HRT is administered during 15 years.

Yield and performance of sugarcane in on-farm interface with rubber in Brazil

Agroforestry systems are indicated as an alternative for sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) cultivation in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, however there are not many field experiments on plant performance under these conditions in the world. The objective of this work was to assess crop yield and partitioning in a sugarcane-rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) interface in on-farm conditions. The availability of irradiance for the crop along the interface was simulated and its effe ct over sugarcane dry matter production was tested. Crop yield was negatively affected by distance of the trees, but development and sucrose were not affected. Above ground dry matter increased from 16.6 to 51.5 t ha-1 from trees. Partitioning did not have a defined standard, as harvest index increased from 0.85 to 0.93, but specific leaf area was not significant along the transect, ranging from 13.48 to 15.73 m² kg-1. Light is the main factor of competition between the trees and the crop, but the relative importance of below ground interactions increases closer to the trees. Feasibility of the system depends on maturity of the trees and management strategies.

Genotype and environment interaction on soybean yield in Mato Grosso State, Brazil

The objective of this work was to investigate the genotype-environment interaction in Mato Grosso State, MT. The relative importance of locations, years, sowing dates and cultivars and their interactions was analyzed from data collected in regional yield trials performed in a randomized complete block design with four replications, from 1994-1995 through 1999-2000, in nine locations and two sowing dates. Individual and pooled analyses of variance over years and locations were performed. Complementary analyses of variances partitioned MT State in two main and five smaller regions, respectively: North and South of Cuiabá; and MT-South-A (Pedra Preta area), MT-South-B (Rondonópolis and Itiquira), MT-East (Primavera do Leste and Campo Verde), MT-Central (Nova Mutum, Lucas do Rio Verde and Sorriso) and MT-Parecis (Campo Novo dos Parecis and Sapezal). Locations are relatively more important than years for yield testing soybeans in the MT State, therefore, investment should be made in increasing locations rather than years to improve experimental precision. Partitioning the MT State into regions has little impact on soybean yield testing results and, consequently, on the efficiency of the soybean breeding program in the State. Breeding genotypes with broad adaptation for the MT State is an efficient strategy for cultivar development.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Basic density and pulp yield relationship with some chemical parameters in eucalyptus trees

The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of basic density and pulp yield correlations with some chemical parameters, in order to differentiate an homogeneous eucalyptus tree population, in terms of its potential for pulp production or some other technological applications. Basic density and kraft pulp yield were determined for 120 Eucalyptus globulus trees, and the values were plotted as frequency distributions. Homogenized samples from the first and fourth density quartiles and first and fourth yield quartiles were submitted to total phenols, total sugars and methoxyl group analysis. Syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) and syringaldehyde/vanillin (S/V) ratios were determined on the kraft lignins from wood of the same quartiles. The results show the similarity between samples from high density and low yield quartiles, both with lower S/G (3.88-4.12) and S/V (3.99-4.09) ratios and higher total phenols (13.3-14.3 g gallic acid kg-1 ). Woods from the high yield quartile are statistically distinguished from all the others because of their higher S/G (5.15) and S/V (4.98) ratios and lower total phenols (8.7 g gallic acid kg-1 ). Methoxyl group and total sugars parameters are more adequate to distinguish wood samples with lower density.

Forage yield and quality of a dense thorny and thornless "jurema-preta" stand

The objective of this work was to compare forage production and quality of thorny and thornless "jurema-preta" (Mimosa tenuiflora (Willd.) Poiret) in a dense planted stand, subjected to annual pruning of fine branches, in Patos, PB, Brazil. The experiment consisted of two treatments (thornless and thorny "jurema-preta") in a complete randomized block design, with ten replicates of two linear plots subdivided in time. Forage mass and chemical composition of fine branches and the basal diameter of plants were measured during five years. Pruning decreased (p<0.05) increments in basal diameter and forage production. Annual dry matter yields reached 4,108 and 5,833 kg ha-1, respectively, for thornless and thorny plants, and forage quality was similar (p>0.05) for both genotypes. This roughage fodder (minimum NDF and ADF averages were 56±1.1% and 43±1.0%, respectively) had low P and K concentrations. Its average crude protein content was greater than 9.9±0.5%, which exceeds the minimum necessary for animal maintenance. Both "jurema-preta" genotypes tolerated pruning of fine branches and contributed with a significant amount of roughage fodder for animal maintenance in the dry season.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Simulation and Analysis of Arterial Traffic Operations Along the U.S. 61 Corridor in Burlington, Iowa, 1998

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) used the traffic simulation model CORSIM to access proposed capacity and safety improvement strategies for the U.S. 61 corridor through Burlington, Iowa. The comparison between the base and alternative models allow for evaluation of the traffic flow performance under the existing conditions as well as other design scenarios. The models also provide visualization of performance for interpretation by technical staff, public policy makers, and the public. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the use of traffic simulation models for future use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and to develop procedures for employing simulation modeling to conduct the analysis of alternative designs. This report presents both the findings of the U.S. 61 evaluation and an overview of model development procedures. The first part of the report includes the simulation modeling development procedures. The simulation analysis is illustrated through the Burlington U.S. 61 corridor case study application. Part I is not intended to be a user manual but simply introductory guidelines for traffic simulation modeling. Part II of the report evaluates the proposed improvement concepts in a side by side comparison of the base and alternative models.

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

Growth, yield, water and effluent quality in ponds with different management during tambaqui juvenile production

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of pond management on fish feed, growth, yield, survival, and water and effluent quality, during tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) juvenile production. Fish were distributed in nine 600 m² earthen ponds, at a density of 8 fish per m²; the rearing period was 60 days. Three different pond management were applied: limed and fertilized (LimFer), limed (Lim), and natural (Nat). Fish were fed with a commercial ration containing 34% crude protein three times daily. There were no significant differences in fish growth or yield. Three main items found in tambaqui stomach were insect, zooplankton and ration, without a significant difference among treatments in proportion. Alkalinity, hardness, and CO2 were greater in LimFer and Lim ponds. Chlorophyll a, transparency, ammonia, nitrite, temperature, and dissolved oxygen of pond water were not significantly different among treatments. Biochemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, ammonia, and nitrite were significantly greater in effluents from LimFer ponds. Pond fertilization should be avoided, because growth and yield were similar among the three pond management systems tested; besides, it produces a more impacting effluent.

Fifty years of wheat breeding in Southern Brazil: yield improvement and associated changes

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of genetic breeding on grain yield, and to identify the physiological traits associated to the increment in yield and their related growth processes, for wheat cultivars grown in Southern Brazil, in the past five decades. Seven wheat cultivars released between 1940 and 1992, were compared for physiological aspects associated with grain yield. Grain yield, biological yield, biomass partitioning, harvest index and grain yield components were also determined. The number of grains per square meter was more affected by plant breeding and was better correlated with grain yield (r = 0.94, p<0.01) than with grain weight (r = -0.39ns). The higher number of grains per square meter was better correlated with the number of grains per spike in the modern cultivars than in the older ones. The genetic gain in grain yield was 44.9 kg ha-1 per year, reflecting important efforts of the breeding programs carried out in Southern Brazil. Grain yield changes, during the period of study, were better associated with biomass production (r = 0.78, p<0.01) than with harvest index (r = 0.65, p<0.01).

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

Effect of pruning on tree growth, yield, and wood properties of Tectona grandis plantations in Costa Rica

Abstract