Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

Bioethics’ Lack in Relation to Person-Centred User-Driven Health Systems Planning: A Call for Change

La tribune de l'éditeur / Editor's Soapbox

Whither RDS? An investigation of respondent driven sampling as a method of recruiting mainstream marijuana users.

Background: An important challenge in conducting social research of specific relevance to harm reduction programs is locating hidden populations of consumers of substances like cannabis who typically report few adverse or unwanted consequences of their use. Much of the deviant, pathologized perception of drug users is historically derived from, and empirically supported, by a research emphasis on gaining ready access to users in drug treatment or in prison populations with higher incidence of problems of dependence and misuse. Because they are less visible, responsible recreational users of illicit drugs have been more difficult to study. Methods: This article investigates Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) as a method of recruiting experienced marijuana users representative of users in the general population. Based on sampling conducted in a multi-city study (Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver), and compared to samples gathered using other research methods, we assess the strengths and weaknesses of RDS recruitment as a means of gaining access to illicit substance users who experience few harmful consequences of their use. Demographic characteristics of the sample in Toronto are compared with those of users in a recent household survey and a pilot study of Toronto where the latter utilized nonrandom self-selection of respondents. Results: A modified approach to RDS was necessary to attain the target sample size in all four cities (i.e., 40 'users' from each site). The final sample in Toronto was largely similar, however, to marijuana users in a random household survey that was carried out in the same city. Whereas well-educated, married, whites and females in the survey were all somewhat overrepresented, the two samples, overall, were more alike than different with respect to economic status and employment. Furthermore, comparison with a self-selected sample suggests that (even modified) RDS recruitment is a cost-effective way of gathering respondents who are more representative of users in the general population than nonrandom methods of recruitment ordinarily produce. Conclusions: Research on marijuana use, and other forms of drug use hidden in the general population of adults, is important for informing and extending harm reduction beyond its current emphasis on 'at-risk' populations. Expanding harm reduction in a normalizing context, through innovative research on users often overlooked, further challenges assumptions about reducing harm through prohibition of drug use and urges consideration of alternative policies such as decriminalization and legal regulation.

Modèles et méthodes pour la planification de la récolte forestière

Ce projet de recherche a été réalisé avec la collaboration de FPInnovations. Une part des travaux concernant le problème de récolte chilien a été effectuée à l'Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería (ISCI) à Santiago (Chili).

STUDIES ON THE QUALITY AND PROCESS CONTROL FACTORS DURING THE PRODUCTION AND STORAGE OF SALTED DRIED FISH PRODUCTS

In this study the quality and process control factors during the production and storage of salted dried fish products. The study reveals that quantity of dry fish production in the state is decreasing and dry fish processing industry should be encouraged by central and state governments. The dry and wet salting may be carried out to a period of 4 to 8 hours respectively and time may depend on temperature, size, and concentration of medium. Demand is an unavoidable factor for sale of fish. The packed dry salted lots kept at room temperature are useful only for 20 days. The refrigerator- stored lots had more storage life and nutritional content are good up to 3 months. The cold storage stored dry salted lot had more storage life than the wet salted lot. The use of preservatives in salting is encouraged to reduce pH. The low temperature preservation maintains the nutritional value and quality for long period. It further encourages the labeling of nutritional value of dry fish as in tinned products.

Enhancement of Diffraction Efficiency and Storage Life of Poly (Vinyl Chloride) Based Optical Recording Medium with the Incorporation of an Electron Donor

The differaction efficiency,sensitivity and storage life of Methylene Blue sencitized poly (vinyl chloride) film was improved by the addition of an electron donor in the matrix. The addition of pyridine enhanced the diffraction efficiency by two times and storage life of the gratings was increased to 2-3 days.

Vacuum-ultraviolet photochemically initiated modification of polystyrene surfaces: morphological changes and mechanistic investigations

Vacuum-ultraviolet (VUV) irradiation (kexc: 172 ± 12 nm) of polystyrene films in the presence of oxygen produced not only oxidatively functionalized surfaces, but generated also morphological changes. Whereas OH- and C=O-functionalized surfaces might be used for e.g. secondary functionalization, enhanced aggregation or printing, processes leading to morphological changes open new possibilities of microstructurization. Series of experiments made under different experimental conditions brought evidence of two different reaction pathways: introduction of OH- and C=O-groups at the polystyrene pathways is mainly due to the reaction of reactive oxygen species (hydroxyl radicals, atomic oxygen, ozone) produced in the gas phase between the VUV-radiation source and the substrate. However, oxidative fragmentation leading to morphological changes, oxidation products of low molecular weight and eventually to mineralization of the organic substrate is initiated by electronic excitation of the polymer leading to C–C-bond homolysis and to a complex oxidation manifold after trapping of the C-centred radicals by molecular oxygen. The pathways of oxidative functionalization or fragmentation could be differentiated by FTIR-ATR analysis of irradiated polystyrene surfaces before and after washing with acetonitrile and microscopic fluorescence analysis of the surfaces secondarily functionalized with the N,N,N-tridodecyl-triaza-triangulenium (TATA) cation. Ozonization of the polystyrene leads to oxidative functionalization of the polymer surface but cannot initiate the fragmentation of the polymer backbone. Oxidative fragmentation is initiated by electronic excitation of the polymer (contact-mode AFM analysis), and evidence of the generation of intermediate C-centred radicals is given e.g. by experiments in the absence of oxygen leading to cross-linking (solubility effects, optical microscopy, friction-mode AFM) and disproportionation (fluorescence).

Enhancement of Diffraction Efficiency and Storage Life of Poly (Vinyl Chloride) Based Optical Recording Medium with the Incorporation of an Electron Donor

The differaction efficiency,sensitivity and storage life of Methylene blue sensitized poly(vinyl chloride) film was improved by the addition of an electron donor in the matrix. The addition of pyridine enhanced the diffraction efficiency by two times and storage life of the gratings was increased to 2-3 days.

Changes in Protein, Carbohydrate and lipid content of cashew kernels during storage under two humidity conditions

The changes occuring to cashew kernels during storage at two humidity levels - 80% to 20% with respect to organoleptic characteristics, protein content, carbohydrate content, oil content, iodine and peroxide values were studied. From the present study it is concluded that organoleptic characteristics of cashew kernels deteriorates with increase in humidity. Decrease in protein and carbohydrate content of stored cashew kernel is dependent on humidity. Humidity increased oxidative rancidification.

Effect of the Vulcanization Time and Storage on the Stability and Physical Properties of Sulfur-Prevulcanized Natural Rubber Latex

Prevulcanized natural rubber latex was prepared by the heating of the latex compound at 55°C for different periods of time (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 h). The changes in the colloidal stability and physical properties were evaluated during the course of prevulcanization. The prevulcanized latex compounds were stored for 300 days, and the properties were monitored at different storage intervals (0, 20, 40, 60, 120, 180, 240, and 300 days). During prevulcanization, the mechanical stability time increased, and the viscosity remained almost constant. The tensile strength increased during storage for a period of 20 days. The degree of crosslinking, modulus, elongation at break, and chloroform number were varied with the time of storage.

Studies on the Effect of Randomness on the Synchronization of Coupled Systems and on the Dynamics of Intermittently driven systems

Nonlinear dynamics has emerged into a prominent area of research in the past few Decades.Turbulence, Pattern formation,Multistability etc are some of the important areas of research in nonlinear dynamics apart from the study of chaos.Chaos refers to the complex evolution of a deterministic system, which is highly sensitive to initial conditions. The study of chaos theory started in the modern sense with the investigations of Edward Lorentz in mid 60's. Later developments in this subject provided systematic development of chaos theory as a science of deterministic but complex and unpredictable dynamical systems. This thesis deals with the effect of random fluctuations with its associated characteristic timescales on chaos and synchronization. Here we introduce the concept of noise, and two familiar types of noise are discussed. The classifications and representation of white and colored noise are introduced. Based on this we introduce the concept of randomness that we deal with as a variant of the familiar concept of noise. The dynamical systems introduced are the Rossler system, directly modulated semiconductor lasers and the Harmonic oscillator. The directly modulated semiconductor laser being not a much familiar dynamical system, we have included a detailed introduction to its relevance in Chaotic encryption based cryptography in communication. We show that the effect of a fluctuating parameter mismatch on synchronization is to destroy the synchronization. Further we show that the relation between synchronization error and timescales can be found empirically but there are also cases where this is not possible. Studies show that under the variation of the parameters, the system becomes chaotic, which appears to be the period doubling route to chaos.

Influence of Processing Variables on Protein Quality and Frozen Storage Stability of Two Commercially Important Species of Squid (Loligo duvaucelii and Doryteuthis sibogae )

Cephalopods are utilized as an important food item in various countries because of its delicacy as raw consumed food. Mainly sepia and loligo are consumed raw by Japanese and Russians. The freshness of the products is very important when the product is consumed raw. The major species that dominate our squid catch are Loligo duvaucelii and Doryteuthis sibogae. There is a noticeable difference in the quality of both the species. The needle squid (Doryteuthis sibogae ) contributes about 35% of the total squid landing. Due to the fast deterioration , a major portion of the needle squid, which is caught during the first few hauls, is thrown back to sea. The catch in the last hauls only are taken to the landing centers. At present the needle squid is processed as blanched rings and the desired quality is not obtained if it is processed as whole, whole cleaned or as tubes. In this study an attempt is made to investigate the biochemical characteristics in both the species of squid in relation to their quality and, the process control measures to be adopted. The effect of various treatments on their quality and the changes in proteolytic and lysosomal enzymes under various processing conditions are also studied in detail.Thus this study can provide the seafood industry with relevant suggestions and solutions for effective utilization of both the species of squid with emphasis on needle squid.

Biochemical and Storage Characteristics of Myofibrillar Protein ( Surimi ) from Freshwater Major Carps

School of Industrial Fisheries, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Studies on Metallocene Polyolefin and Polyvinyl Chloride for Blood and Blood Component Storage Applications

Plasticized poly(vinyl chloride) (pPVC), although a major player in the medical field, is at present facing lot of criticism due to some of its limitations like the leaching out of the toxic plasticizer, di ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) to the medium and the emission of an environmental pollutant,dioxin gas,at the time of the post use disposal of PVC Products by incineration. Due to these reasons, efforts are on to reduce the use of pPVC considerably in the medical field and to find viable alternative materials. The present study has been undertaken in this context to find a suitable material for the manufacture of medical aids in place of pPVC. The main focus of this study has been to find out a non-DEHP material as plasticizer for pPVC and another suitable material for the complete repalcement of pPVC for blood/ blood component storage applications.Two approaches have been undertaken for this purpose-(1)the controversial plasticizer, DEHP has been partially replaced by polymeric plasticizers(2) an alternative material, namely, metallocene polyolefin (mPO) has been used and suitably modified to match the properties of flexible PVC used for blood and blood component storage applications.

Acid activated montmorillonite: an efficient immobilization support for improving reusability, storage stability and operational stability of enzymes

Three enzymes, α-amylase, glucoamylase and invertase, were immobilized on acid activated montmorillonite K 10 via two independent techniques, adsorption and covalent binding. The immobilized enzymes were characterized by XRD, N2 adsorption measurements and 27Al MAS-NMR spectroscopy. The XRD patterns showed that all enzymes were intercalated into the clay inter-layer space. The entire protein backbone was situated at the periphery of the clay matrix. Intercalation occurred through the side chains of the amino acid residues. A decrease in surface area and pore volume upon immobilization supported this observation. The extent of intercalation was greater for the covalently bound systems. NMR data showed that tetrahedral Al species were involved during enzyme adsorption whereas octahedral Al was involved during covalent binding. The immobilized enzymes demonstrated enhanced storage stability. While the free enzymes lost all activity within a period of 10 days, the immobilized forms retained appreciable activity even after 30 days of storage. Reusability also improved upon immobilization. Here again, covalently bound enzymes exhibited better characteristics than their adsorbed counterparts. The immobilized enzymes could be successfully used continuously in the packed bed reactor for about 96 hours without much loss in activity. Immobilized glucoamylase demonstrated the best results.