850 resultados para time and risk preferences
Resumo:
Proliferative kidney disease is a parasitic infection of salmonid fishes caused by Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. The main target organ of the parasite in the fish is the kidney. To investigate the influence of water temperature on the disease in fish, rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss infected with T bryosalmonae were kept at 12 degrees C and 18 degrees C. The number of parasites, the type and degree of lesions in the kidney and the mortality rate was evaluated from infection until full development of disease. While mortality stayed low at 12 degrees C, it reached 77% at 18 degrees C. At 12 degrees C, pathological lesions were dominated by a multifocal proliferative and granulomatous interstitial nephritis. This was accompanied by low numbers of T. bryosalmonae, mainly located in the interstitial lesions. With progression of the disease, small numbers of parasites appeared in the excretory tubuli, and parasite DNA was detected in the urine. Parasite degeneration in the interstitium was observed at late stages of the disease. At 18 degrees C, pathological lesions in kidneys were more severe and more widely distributed, and accompanied by significantly higher parasite numbers. Distribution of parasites in the renal compartments, onset of parasite degeneration and time course of appearance of parasite DNA in urine were not clearly different from the 12 degrees C group. These findings indicate that higher mortality at 18 degrees C compared to 12 degrees C is associated with an enhanced severity of renal pathology and increased parasite numbers.
Resumo:
Ein auf Basis von Prozessdaten kalibriertes Viskositätsmodell wird vorgeschlagen und zur Vorhersage der Viskosität einer Polyamid 12 (PA12) Kunststoffschmelze als Funktion von Zeit, Temperatur und Schergeschwindigkeit angewandt. Im ersten Schritt wurde das Viskositätsmodell aus experimentellen Daten abgeleitet. Es beruht hauptsächlich auf dem drei-parametrigen Ansatz von Carreau, wobei zwei zusätzliche Verschiebungsfaktoren eingesetzt werden. Die Temperaturabhängigkeit der Viskosität wird mithilfe des Verschiebungsfaktors aT von Arrhenius berücksichtigt. Ein weiterer Verschiebungsfaktor aSC (Structural Change) wird eingeführt, der die Strukturänderung von PA12 als Folge der Prozessbedingungen beim Lasersintern beschreibt. Beobachtet wurde die Strukturänderung in Form einer signifikanten Viskositätserhöhung. Es wurde geschlussfolgert, dass diese Viskositätserhöhung auf einen Molmassenaufbau zurückzuführen ist und als Nachkondensation verstanden werden kann. Abhängig von den Zeit- und Temperaturbedingungen wurde festgestellt, dass die Viskosität als Folge des Molmassenaufbaus exponentiell gegen eine irreversible Grenze strebt. Die Geschwindigkeit dieser Nachkondensation ist zeit- und temperaturabhängig. Es wird angenommen, dass die Pulverbetttemperatur einen Molmassenaufbau verursacht und es damit zur Kettenverlängerung kommt. Dieser fortschreitende Prozess der zunehmenden Kettenlängen setzt molekulare Beweglichkeit herab und unterbindet die weitere Nachkondensation. Der Verschiebungsfaktor aSC drückt diese physikalisch-chemische Modellvorstellung aus und beinhaltet zwei zusätzliche Parameter. Der Parameter aSC,UL entspricht der oberen Viskositätsgrenze, wohingegen k0 die Strukturänderungsrate angibt. Es wurde weiterhin festgestellt, dass es folglich nützlich ist zwischen einer Fließaktivierungsenergie und einer Strukturänderungsaktivierungsenergie für die Berechnung von aT und aSC zu unterscheiden. Die Optimierung der Modellparameter erfolgte mithilfe eines genetischen Algorithmus. Zwischen berechneten und gemessenen Viskositäten wurde eine gute Übereinstimmung gefunden, so dass das Viskositätsmodell in der Lage ist die Viskosität einer PA12 Kunststoffschmelze als Folge eines kombinierten Lasersinter Zeit- und Temperatureinflusses vorherzusagen. Das Modell wurde im zweiten Schritt angewandt, um die Viskosität während des Lasersinter-Prozesses in Abhängigkeit von der Energiedichte zu berechnen. Hierzu wurden Prozessdaten, wie Schmelzetemperatur und Belichtungszeit benutzt, die mithilfe einer High-Speed Thermografiekamera on-line gemessen wurden. Abschließend wurde der Einfluss der Strukturänderung auf das Viskositätsniveau im Prozess aufgezeigt.
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Cattle are a natural reservoir for Shiga toxigenic Escherichia coli (STEC), however, no data are available on the prevalence and their possible association with organic or conventional farming practices. We have therefore studied the prevalence of STEC and specifically O157:H7 in Swiss dairy cattle by collecting faeces from approximately 500 cows from 60 farms with organic production (OP) and 60 farms with integrated (conventional) production (IP). IP farms were matched to OP farms and were comparable in terms of community, agricultural zone, and number of cows per farm. E. coli were grown overnight in an enrichment medium, followed by DNA isolation and PCR analysis using specific TaqMan assays. STEC were detected in all farms and O157:H7 were present in 25% of OP farms and 17% of IP farms. STEC were detected in 58% and O157:H7 were evidenced in 4.6% of individual faeces. Multivariate statistical analyses of over 250 parameters revealed several risk-factors for the presence of STEC and O157:H7. Risk-factors were mainly related to the potential of cross-contamination of feeds and cross-infection of cows, and age of the animals. In general, no significant differences between the two farm types concerning prevalence or risk for carrying STEC or O157:H7 were observed. Because the incidence of human disease caused by STEC in Switzerland is low, the risk that people to get infected appears to be small despite a relatively high prevalence in cattle. Nevertheless, control and prevention practices are indicated to avoid contamination of animal products.
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Background: In contrast with established evidence linking high doses of ionizing radiation with childhood cancer, research on low-dose ionizing radiation and childhood cancer has produced inconsistent results. Objective: We investigated the association between domestic radon exposure and childhood cancers, particularly leukemia and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Methods: We conducted a nationwide census-based cohort study including all children < 16 years of age living in Switzerland on 5 December 2000, the date of the 2000 census. Follow-up lasted until the date of diagnosis, death, emigration, a child’s 16th birthday, or 31 December 2008. Domestic radon levels were estimated for each individual home address using a model developed and validated based on approximately 45,000 measurements taken throughout Switzerland. Data were analyzed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for child age, child sex, birth order, parents’ socioeconomic status, environmental gamma radiation, and period effects. Results: In total, 997 childhood cancer cases were included in the study. Compared with children exposed to a radon concentration below the median (< 77.7 Bq/m3), adjusted hazard ratios for children with exposure ≥ the 90th percentile (≥ 139.9 Bq/m3) were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.74, 1.16) for all cancers, 0.95 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.43) for all leukemias, 0.90 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.43) for acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and 1.05 (95% CI: 0.68, 1.61) for CNS tumors. Conclusions: We did not find evidence that domestic radon exposure is associated with childhood cancer, despite relatively high radon levels in Switzerland.
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BACKGROUND Homicide-suicides are rare but catastrophic events. This study examined the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in Switzerland. METHODS The study identified homicide-suicide events 1991-2008 in persons from the same household in the Swiss National Cohort, which links census and mortality records. The analysis examined the association of the risk of dying in a homicide-suicide event with socio-demographic variables, measured at the individual-level, household composition variables and area-level variables. Proportional hazards regression models were calculated for male perpetrators and female victims. Results are presented as age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS The study identified 158 deaths from homicide-suicide events, including 85 murder victims (62 women, 4 men, 19 children and adolescents) and 68 male and 5 female perpetrators. The incidence was 3 events per million households and year. Firearms were the most prominent method for both homicides and suicides. The risk of perpetrating homicide-suicide was higher in divorced than in married men (HR 3.64; 95%CI 1.56-8.49), in foreigners without permanent residency compared to Swiss citizens (HR 3.95; 1.52-10.2), higher in men without religious affiliations than in Catholics (HR 2.23; 1.14-4.36) and higher in crowded households (HR 4.85; 1.72-13.6 comparing ≥2 with <1 persons/room). There was no association with education, occupation or nationality, the number of children, the language region or degree of urbanicity. Associations were similar for female victims. CONCLUSIONS This national longitudinal study shows that living conditions associated with psychological stress and lower levels of social support are associated with homicide-suicide events in Switzerland.
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BACKGROUND Infectious diseases and social contacts in early life have been proposed to modulate brain tumour risk during late childhood and adolescence. METHODS CEFALO is an interview-based case-control study in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland, including children and adolescents aged 7-19 years with primary intracranial brain tumours diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 and matched population controls. RESULTS The study included 352 cases (participation rate: 83%) and 646 controls (71%). There was no association with various measures of social contacts: daycare attendance, number of childhours at daycare, attending baby groups, birth order or living with other children. Cases of glioma and embryonal tumours had more frequent sick days with infections in the first 6 years of life compared with controls. In 7-19 year olds with 4+ monthly sick day, the respective odds ratios were 2.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.57-5.50) and 4.21 (95% confidence interval: 1.24-14.30). INTERPRETATION There was little support for the hypothesis that social contacts influence childhood and adolescent brain tumour risk. The association between reported sick days due to infections and risk of glioma and embryonal tumour may reflect involvement of immune functions, recall bias or inverse causality and deserve further attention.
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OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.
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BACKGROUND Mortality risk for people with chronic kidney disease is substantially greater than that for the general population, increasing to a 7-fold greater risk for those on dialysis therapy. Higher body mass index, generally due to higher energy intake, appears protective for people on dialysis therapy, but the relationship between energy intake and survival in those with reduced kidney function is unknown. STUDY DESIGN Prospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 14.5 (IQR, 11.2-15.2) years. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS Blue Mountains Area, west of Sydney, Australia. Participants in the general community enrolled in the Blue Mountains Eye Study (n=2,664) who underwent a detailed interview, food frequency questionnaire, and physical examination including body weight, height, blood pressure, and laboratory tests. PREDICTORS Relative energy intake, food components (carbohydrates, total sugars, fat, protein, and water), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Relative energy intake was dichotomized at 100%, and eGFR, at 60mL/min/1.73m(2). OUTCOMES All-cause and cardiovascular mortality. MEASUREMENTS All-cause and cardiovascular mortality using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional regression models. RESULTS 949 people died during follow-up, 318 of cardiovascular events. In people with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m(2) (n=852), there was an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.48; P=0.03), but no increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.59; P=0.1) among those with higher relative energy intake compared with those with lower relative energy intake. Increasing intake of carbohydrates (HR per 100g/d, 1.50; P=0.04) and total sugars (HR per 100g/d, 1.62; P=0.03) was associated significantly with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. LIMITATIONS Under-reporting of energy intake, baseline laboratory and food intake values only, white population. CONCLUSIONS Increasing relative energy intake was associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m(2). This effect may be mediated by increasing total sugars intake on subsequent cardiovascular events.
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OBJECTIVES: To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome. METHODS: A total of 1061 HIV patients diagnosed with TB in four regions, Central/Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe and Argentina, between January 2004 and December 2006 were enrolled in the TB-HIV study. A weighted HCI score (range 0–5), based on independent prognostic factors identified in multivariable Cox models and the final score, included performance of TB drug susceptibility testing (DST), an initial TB regimen containing a rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide, and start of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART). RESULTS: The mean HCI score was highest in Central/Northern Europe (3.2, 95%CI 3.1–3.3) and lowest in Eastern Europe (1.6, 95%CI 1.5–1.7). The cumulative probability of death 1 year after TB diagnosis decreased from 39% (95%CI 31–48) among patients with an HCI score of 0, to 9% (95%CI 6–13) among those with a score of ≥4. In an adjusted Cox model, a 1-unit increase in the HCI score was associated with 27% reduced mortality (relative hazard 0.73, 95%CI 0.64–0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that DST, standard anti-tuberculosis treatment and early cART may improve outcome for TB-HIV patients. The proposed HCI score provides a tool for future research and monitoring of the management of TB-HIV patients. The highest HCI score may serve as a benchmark to assess TB-HIV management, encouraging continuous health care improvement.
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BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.
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Glutathione S-transferase (GST) genes detoxify and metabolize carcinogens, including oxygen free radicals which may contribute to salivary gland carcinogenesis. This cancer center-based case-control association study included 166 patients with incident salivary gland carcinoma (SGC) and 511 cancer-free controls. We performed multiplex polymerase chain reaction-based polymorphism genotyping assays for GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, tobacco use, family history of cancer, alcohol use and radiation exposure. In our results, 27.7% of the SGC cases and 20.6% of the controls were null for the GSTT1 (P = 0.054), and 53.0% of the SGC cases and 50.9% of the controls were null for the GSTM1 (P = 0.633). The results of the adjusted multivariale regression analysis suggested that having GSTT1 null genotype was associated with a significantly increased risk for SGC (odds ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.0-2.3). Additionally, 13.9% of the SGC cases but only 8.4% of the controls were null for both genes and the results of the adjusted multivariable regression analysis suggested that having both null genotypes was significantly associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk for SGC (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.0-3.5). The presence of GSTT1 null genotype and the simultaneous presence of GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes appear associated with significantly increased SGC risk. These findings warrant further study with larger sample sizes.
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Methylating agents are involved in carcinogenesis, and the DNA repair protein O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) removes methyl group from O(6)-methylguanine. Genetic variation in DNA repair genes has been shown to contribute to susceptibility to squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). We hypothesize that MGMT polymorphisms are associated with risk of SCCHN. In a hospital-based case-control study of 721 patients with SCCHN and 1234 cancer-free controls frequency-matched by age, sex and ethnicity, we genotyped four MGMT polymorphisms, two in exon 3, 16195C>T and 16286C>T and two in the promoter region, 45996G>T and 46346C>A. We found that none of these polymorphisms alone had a significant effect on risk of SCCHN. However, when these four polymorphisms were evaluated together by the number of putative risk genotypes (i.e. 16195CC, 16286CC, 45996GT+TT, and 46346CA+AA), a statistically significantly increased risk of SCCHN was associated with the combined genotypes with three to four risk genotypes, compared with those with zero to two risk genotypes (adjusted odds ratio (OR)=1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.05-1.53). This increased risk was also more pronounced among young subjects (OR=1.81; 95% CI=1.11-2.96), men (OR=1.24; 95% CI=1.00-1.55), ever smokers (OR=1.25; 95%=1.01-1.56), ever drinkers (OR=1.29; 95% CI=1.04-1.60), patients with oropharyngeal cancer (OR=1.45; 95% CI=1.12-1.87), and oropharyngeal cancer with regional lymph node metastasis (OR=1.52; 95% CI=1.16-1.89). In conclusion, our results suggest that any one of MGMT variants may not have a substantial effect on SCCHN risk, but a joint effect of several MGMT variants may contribute to risk and progression of SCCHN, particularly for oropharyngeal cancer, in non-Hispanic whites.
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Inappropriate response tendencies may be stopped via a specific fronto/basal ganglia/primary motor cortical network. We sought to characterize the functional role of two regions in this putative stopping network, the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and the primary motor cortex (M1), using electocorticography from subdural electrodes in four patients while they performed a stop-signal task. On each trial, a motor response was initiated, and on a minority of trials a stop signal instructed the patient to try to stop the response. For each patient, there was a greater right IFG response in the beta frequency band ( approximately 16 Hz) for successful versus unsuccessful stop trials. This finding adds to evidence for a functional network for stopping because changes in beta frequency activity have also been observed in the basal ganglia in association with behavioral stopping. In addition, the right IFG response occurred 100-250 ms after the stop signal, a time range consistent with a putative inhibitory control process rather than with stop-signal processing or feedback regarding success. A downstream target of inhibitory control is M1. In each patient, there was alpha/beta band desynchronization in M1 for stop trials. However, the degree of desynchronization in M1 was less for successfully than unsuccessfully stopped trials. This reduced desynchronization on successful stop trials could relate to increased GABA inhibition in M1. Together with other findings, the results suggest that behavioral stopping is implemented via synchronized activity in the beta frequency band in a right IFG/basal ganglia network, with downstream effects on M1.