Stochastic Assessment Of Environmental Flows In Semiarid Environments

The regimen of environmental flows (EF) must be included as terms of environmental demand in the management of water resources. Even though there are numerous methods for the computation of EF, the criteria applied at different steps in the calculation process are quite subjective whereas the results are fixed values that must be meet by water planners. This study presents a friendly-user tool for the assessment of the probability of compliance of a certain EF scenario with the natural regimen in a semiarid area in southern Spain. 250 replications of a 25-yr period of different hydrological variables (rainfall, minimum and maximum flows, ...) were obtained at the study site from the combination of Monte Carlo technique and local hydrological relationships. Several assumptions are made such as the independence of annual rainfall from year to year and the variability of occurrence of the meteorological agents, mainly precipitation as the main source of uncertainty. Inputs to the tool are easily selected from a first menu and comprise measured rainfall data, EF values and the hydrological relationships for at least a 20-yr period. The outputs are the probabilities of compliance of the different components of the EF for the study period. From this, local optimization can be applied to establish EF components with a certain level of compliance in the study period. Different options for graphic output and analysis of results are included in terms of graphs and tables in several formats. This methodology turned out to be a useful tool for the implementation of an uncertainty analysis within the scope of environmental flows in water management and allowed the simulation of the impacts of several water resource development scenarios in the study site.

Adaptivity in programming languages

A programming style can be seen as a particular model of shaping thought or a special way of codifying language to solve a problem. An adaptive device is made up of an underlying formalism, for instance, an automaton, a grammar, a decision tree, etc., and an adaptive mechanism, responsible for providing features for self-modification. Adaptive languages are obtained by using some programming language as the device’s underlying formalism. The conception of such languages calls for a new programming style, since the application of adaptive technology in the field of programming languages suggests a new way of thinking. Adaptive languages have the basic feature of allowing the expression of programs which self-modifying through adaptive actions at runtime. With the adaptive style, programming language codes can be structured in such a way that the codified program therein modifies or adapts itself towards the needs of the problem. The adaptive programming style may be a feasible alternate way to obtain self-modifying consistent codes, which allow its use in modern applications for self-modifying code.

Adaptive device with underlying mechanism defined by a programming language

An adaptive device is made up of an underlying mechanism, for instance, an automaton, a grammar, a decision tree, etc., to which is added an adaptive mechanism, responsible for allowing a dynamic modification in the structure of the underlying mechanism. This article aims to investigate if a programming language can be used as an underlying mechanism of an adaptive device, resulting in an adaptive language.

Conception of adaptive programming languages

Adaptive devices show the characteristic of dynamically change themselves in response to input stimuli with no interference of external agents. Occasional changes in behaviour are immediately detected by the devices, which right away react spontaneously to them. Chronologically such devices derived from researches in the field of formal languages and automata. However, formalism spurred applications in several other fields. Based on the operation of adaptive automata, the elementary ideas generanting programming adaptive languages are presented.

Adaptive languages and a new programming style

A programming style can be seen as a particular model of shaping thought or a special way of codifying language to solve a problem. Adaptive languages have the basic feature of allowing the expression of programs which self-modifying through adaptive actions at runtime. The conception of such languages calls for a new programming style, since the application of adaptive technology in the field of programming languages suggests a new way of thinking. With the adaptive style, programming language codes can be structured in such a way that the codified program therein modifies or adapts itself towards the needs of the problem. The adaptive programming style may be a feasible alternate way to obtain self-modifying consistent codes, which allow its use in modern applications for self-modifying code.

Using adaptive automata in a multi-paradigm programming environment

In this paper the architecture of an experimental multiparadigmatic programming environment is sketched, showing how its parts combine together with application modules in order to perform the integration of program modules written in different programming languages and paradigms. Adaptive automata are special self-modifying formal state machines used as a design and implementation tool in the representation of complex systems. Adaptive automata have been proven to have the same formal power as Turing Machines. Therefore, at least in theory, arbitrarily complex systems may be modeled with adaptive automata. The present work briefly introduces such formal tool and presents case studies showing how to use them in two very different situations: the first one, in the name management module of a multi-paradigmatic and multi-language programming environment, and the second one, in an application program implementing an adaptive automaton that accepts a context-sensitive language.

Estimating the stochastic discount factor without a utility function

Using the Pricing Equation in a panel-data framework, we construct a novel consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) which relies on the fact that its logarithm is the serial-correlation ìcommon featureîin every asset return of the economy. Our estimator is a simple function of asset returns, does not depend on any parametric function representing preferences, is suitable for testing di§erent preference speciÖcations or investigating intertemporal substitution puzzles, and can be a basis to construct an estimator of the risk-free rate. For post-war data, our estimator is close to unity most of the time, yielding an average annual real discount rate of 2.46%. In formal testing, we cannot reject standard preference speciÖcations used in the literature and estimates of the relative risk-aversion coe¢ cient are between 1 and 2, and statistically equal to unity. Using our SDF estimator, we found little signs of the equity-premium puzzle for the U.S.

A stochastic discount factor approach to asset pricing using panel data

Using the Pricing Equation, in a panel-data framework, we construct a novel consistent estimator of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) mimicking portfolio which relies on the fact that its logarithm is the ìcommon featureîin every asset return of the economy. Our estimator is a simple function of asset returns and does not depend on any parametric function representing preferences, making it suitable for testing di§erent preference speciÖcations or investigating intertemporal substitution puzzles.