Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Setting up interpretation criteria for juvenile and adult European anchovy otoliths from Canary Islands

Máster en Gestión Sostenible de Recursos Pesqueros

Securitization and Special Purpose Vehicles in an International Setting: a Systemic View

The present work tries to display a comprehensive and comparative study of the different legal and regulatory problems involved in international securitization transactions. First, an introduction to securitization is provided, with the basic elements of the transaction, followed by the different varieties of it, including dynamic securitization and synthetic securitization structures. Together with this introduction to the intricacies of the structure, a insight into the influence of securitization in the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 is provided too; as well as an overview of the process of regulatory competition and cooperation that constitutes the framework for the international aspects of securitization. The next Chapter focuses on the aspects that constitute the foundations of structured finance: the inception of the vehicle, and the transfer of risks associated to the securitized assets, with particular emphasis on the validity of those elements, and how a securitization transaction could be threatened at its root. In this sense, special importance is given to the validity of the trust as an instrument of finance, to the assignment of future receivables or receivables in block, and to the importance of formalities for the validity of corporations, trusts, assignments, etc., and the interaction of such formalities contained in general corporate, trust and assignment law with those contemplated under specific securitization regulations. Then, the next Chapter (III) focuses on creditor protection aspects. As such, we provide some insights on the debate on the capital structure of the firm, and its inadequacy to assess the financial soundness problems inherent to securitization. Then, we proceed to analyze the importance of rules on creditor protection in the context of securitization. The corollary is in the rules in case of insolvency. In this sense, we divide the cases where a party involved in the transaction goes bankrupt, from those where the transaction itself collapses. Finally, we focus on the scenario where a substance over form analysis may compromise some of the elements of the structure (notably the limited liability of the sponsor, and/or the transfer of assets) by means of veil piercing, substantive consolidation, or recharacterization theories. Once these elements have been covered, the next Chapters focus on the regulatory aspects involved in the transaction. Chapter IV is more referred to “market” regulations, i.e. those concerned with information disclosure and other rules (appointment of the indenture trustee, and elaboration of a rating by a rating agency) concerning the offering of asset-backed securities to the public. Chapter V, on the other hand, focuses on “prudential” regulation of the entity entrusted with securitizing assets (the so-called Special Purpose vehicle), and other entities involved in the process. Regarding the SPV, a reference is made to licensing requirements, restriction of activities and governance structures to prevent abuses. Regarding the sponsor of the transaction, a focus is made on provisions on sound originating practices, and the servicing function. Finally, we study accounting and banking regulations, including the Basel I and Basel II Frameworks, which determine the consolidation of the SPV, and the de-recognition of the securitized asset from the originating company’s balance-sheet, as well as the posterior treatment of those assets, in particular by banks. Chapters VI-IX are concerned with liability matters. Chapter VI is an introduction to the different sources of liability. Chapter VII focuses on the liability by the SPV and its management for the information supplied to investors, the management of the asset pool, and the breach of loyalty (or fiduciary) duties. Chapter VIII rather refers to the liability of the originator as a result of such information and statements, but also as a result of inadequate and reckless originating or servicing practices. Chapter IX finally focuses on third parties entrusted with the soundness of the transaction towards the market, the so-called gatekeepers. In this respect, we make special emphasis on the liability of indenture trustees, underwriters and rating agencies. Chapters X and XI focus on the international aspects of securitization. Chapter X contains a conflicts of laws analysis of the different aspects of structured finance. In this respect, a study is made of the laws applicable to the vehicle, to the transfer of risks (either by assignment or by means of derivatives contracts), to liability issues; and a study is also made of the competent jurisdiction (and applicable law) in bankruptcy cases; as well as in cases where a substance-over-form is performed. Then, special attention is also devoted to the role of financial and securities regulations; as well as to their territorial limits, and extraterritoriality problems involved. Chapter XI supplements the prior Chapter, for it analyzes the limits to the States’ exercise of regulatory power by the personal and “market” freedoms included in the US Constitution or the EU Treaties. A reference is also made to the (still insufficient) rules from the WTO Framework, and their significance to the States’ recognition and regulation of securitization transactions.

Fundamental Dimensions of Social Judgment: Sociability and Morality as Distinct Characteristics of Social Warmth

The present dissertation focuses on the two basic dimensions of social judgment, i.e., warmth and competence. Previous research has shown that warmth and competence emerge as fundamental dimensions both at the interpersonal level and at the group level. Moreover, warmth judgments appear to be primary, reflecting the importance of first assessing others’ intentions before determining the other’s ability to carry out those intentions. Finally, it has been shown that warmth and competence judgments are predicted by perceived economic competition and status, respectively (for a review, see Cuddy, Fiske, & Glick, 2008). Building on this evidence, the present work intends to further explore the role of warmth and competence in social judgment, adopting a finer-grained level of analysis. Specifically, we consider warmth to be a dimension of evaluation that encompasses two distinct characteristics (i.e., sociability and morality) rather than as an undifferentiated dimension (see Leach, Ellemers, & Barreto, 2007). In a similar vein, both economic competition and symbolic competition are taken into account (see Stephan, Ybarra, & Morrison, 2009). In order to highlight the relevance of our empirical research, the first chapter reviews the literature in social psychology that has studied the warmth and competence dimensions. In the second chapter, across two studies, we examine the role of realistic and symbolic threats (akin economic and symbolic competition, respectively) in predicting the perception of sociability and morality of social groups. In study 1, we measure perceived realistic threat, symbolic threat, sociability, and morality with respect to 8 social groups. In study 2, we manipulate the level and type of threat of a fictitious group and measure perceived sociability and morality. The findings show that realistic threat and symbolic threat are differentially related to the sociability and morality components of warmth. Specifically, whereas realistic threat seems to be a stronger predictor of sociability than symbolic threat, symbolic threat emerges as better predictor of morality than realistic threat. Thus, extending prior research, we show that the types of threat are linked to different warmth stereotypes. In the third and the fourth chapter, we examine whether the sociability and morality components of warmth play distinct roles at different stages of group impression formation. More specifically, the third chapter focuses on the information-gathering process. Two studies experimentally investigate which traits are mostly selected when forming impressions about either ingroup or outgroup members. The results clearly show that perceivers are more interested in obtaining information about morality than about sociability when asked to form a global impression about others. The fourth chapter considers more properly the formulation of an evaluative impression. Thus, in the first study participants rate real groups on sociability, morality, and competence. In the second study, participants read an immigration scenario depicting an unfamiliar social group in terms of high (vs. low) morality, sociability, and competence. In both studies, participants are also asked to report their global impression of the group. The results show that global evaluations are better predicted by morality than by sociability and competence trait ascriptions. Taken together the third and the fourth chapters show that the dominance of warmth suggested by previous studies on impression formation might be better explained in terms of a greater effect of one of the two subcomponents (i.e., morality) over the other (i.e., sociability). In the general discussion, we discuss the relevance of our findings for intergroup relation and group perception, as well as for impression formation.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.

On The Timing of Default Losses: When and Why?

At the light of what happened in 2010 and 2011, a lot of European countries founded themselves in a difficult position where all the credit rating agencies were downgrading debt states. Problem of solvency and guarantees on the states' bond were perceived as too risky for a Monetary Union as Europe is. Fear of a contagion from Greece as well was threatening the other countries as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland; while Germany and France asked for a division between risky and riskless bond in order to feel more safe. Our paper gets inspiration by Roch and Uhlig (2011), it refers to the Argentinian case examined by Arellano (2008) and examine possible interventions as monetization or bailout as proposed by Cole and Kehoe (2000). We propose a model in which a state defaults and cannot repay a fraction of the old bond; but contrary to Roch and Uhlig that where considering a one-time cost of default we consider default as an accumulation of losses, perceived as unpaid fractions of the old debts. Our contributions to literature is that default immediately imply that economy faces a bad period and, accumulating losses, government will be worse-off. We studied a function for this accumulation of debt period by period, in order to get an idea of the magnitude of this waste of resources that economy will face when experiences a default. Our thesis is that bailouts just postpone the day of reckoning (Roch, Uhlig); so it's better to default before accumulate a lot of debts. What Europe need now is the introduction of new reforms in a controlled default where the Eurozone will be saved in its whole integrity and a state could fail with the future promise of a resurrection. As experience show us, governments are not interested into reducing debts since there are ECB interventions. That clearly create a distortion between countries in the same monetary union, giving to the states just an illusion about their future debtor position.

Detailed study of the seismotectonic setting in the Lucanian Apennines and surrounding areas (Southern Italy)

In this research work I analyzed the instrumental seismicity of Southern Italy in the area including the Lucanian Apennines and Bradano foredeep, making use of the most recent seismological database available so far. I examined the seismicity occurred during the period between 2001 and 2006, considering 514 events with magnitudes M ≥ 2.0. In the first part of the work, P- and S-wave arrival times, recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC) operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), were re-picked along with those of the SAPTEX temporary array (2001–2004). For some events located in the Upper Val d'Agri, I also used data from the Eni-Agip oil company seismic network. I computed the VP/VS ratio obtaining a value of 1.83 and I carried out an analysis for the one-dimensional (1D) velocity model that approximates the seismic structure of the study area. After this preliminary analysis, making use of the records obtained in the SeSCAL experiment, I incremented the database by handpicking new arrival times. My final dataset consists of 15,666 P- and 9228 S-arrival times associated to 1047 earthquakes with magnitude ML ≥ 1.5. I computed 162 fault-plane solutions and composite focal mechanisms for closely located events. I investigated stress field orientation inverting focal mechanism belonging to the Lucanian Apennine and the Pollino Range, both areas characterized by more concentrated background seismicity. Moreover, I applied the double difference technique (DD) to improve the earthquake locations. Considering these results and different datasets available in the literature, I carried out a detailed analysis of single sub-areas and of a swarm (November 2008) recorded by SeSCAL array. The relocated seismicity appears more concentrated within the upper crust and it is mostly clustered along the Lucanian Apennine chain. In particular, two well-defined clusters were located in the Potentino and in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa sector (central Lucanian region). Their hypocentral depths are slightly deeper than those observed beneath the chain. I suggest that these two seismic features are representative of the transition from the inner portion of the chain with NE-SW extension to the external margin characterized by dextral strike-slip kinematics. In the easternmost part of the study area, below the Bradano foredeep and the Apulia foreland, the seismicity is generally deeper and more scattered and is associated to the Murge uplift and to the small structures present in the area. I also observed a small structure NE-SW oriented in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa area (activated with a swarm in November 2008) that could be considered to act as a barrier to the propagation of a potential rupture of an active NW-SE striking faults system. Focal mechanisms computed in this study are in large part normal and strike-slip solutions and their tensional axes (T-axes) have a generalized NE-SW orientation. Thanks to denser coverage of seismic stations and the detailed analysis, this study is a further contribution to the comprehension of the seismogenesis and state of stress of the Southern Apennines region, giving important contributions to seismotectonic zoning and seismic hazard assessment.

Sedimentary rocks of the Internal Hellenides, Greece: age, source, and depositional setting

Ziel der vorliegenden Dissertation war die Untersuchung der Liefergebiete und Ablagerungsräume sedimentärer Gesteine aus ausgewählten Gebieten der inneren Helleniden Griechenlands. Die untersuchten Sedimente Nordgriechenlands gehören zu den Pirgadikia und Vertiskos Einheiten des Serbo-Makedonische Massifs, zu den Examili, Melissochori und Prinochori Formationen der östlichen Vardar Zone und zur Makri Einheit und Melia Formation des östlichen Zirkum-Rhodope-Gürtels in Thrakien. In der östlichen Ägäis lag der Schwerpunkt bei den Sedimenten der Insel Chios. Der Metamorphosegrad der untersuchten Gesteine variiert von der untersten Grünschieferfazies bis hin zur Amphibolitfazies. Das stratigraphische Alter reicht vom Ordovizium bis zur Kreide. Zur Charakterisierung der Gesteine und ihrer Liefgebiete wurden Haupt- und Spurenelementgehalte der Gesamtgesteine bestimmt, mineralchemische Analysen durchgeführt und detritische Zirkone mit U–Pb datiert. An ausgewählten Proben wurden außerdem biostratigraphische Untersuchungen zur Bestimmung des Sedimentationsalters durchgeführt. Die Untersuchungsergebnisse dieser Arbeit sind von großer Bedeutung für paläogeographische Rekonstruktionen der Tethys. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die ältesten Sedimente Nordgriechenlands gehören zur Pirgadikia Einheit des Serbo-Makedonischen Massifs. Es sind sehr reife, quarzreiche, siliziklastische Metasedimente, die auf Grund ihrer Maturität und ihrer detritischen Zirkone mit ordovizischen overlap-Sequenzen vom Nordrand Gondwanas korreliert werden können. Die Metasedimente der Vertiskos Einheit besitzen ein ähnliches stratigraphisches Alter, haben aber einen anderen Ablagerungsraum. Das Altersspektrum detritischer Zirkone lässt auf ein Liefergebiet im Raum NW Afrikas (Hun Superterrane) schließen. Die Gesteinsassoziation der Vertiskos Einheit wird als Teil einer aktiven Kontinentalrandabfolge gesehen. Die ältesten biostratigraphisch datierten Sedimente Griechenlands sind silurische bis karbonische Olistolithe aus einer spätpaläozoischen Turbidit-Olistostrom Einheit auf der Insel Chios. Die Alter detritischer Zirkone und die Liefergebietsanalyse der fossilführenden Olistolithe lassen den Schluss zu, dass die klastischen Sedimente von Chios Material vom Sakarya Mikrokontinent in der West-Türkei und faziellen Äquivalenten zu paläozoischen Gesteinen der Istanbul Zone in der Nord-Türkei und der Balkan Region erhalten haben. Während der Permotrias wurde die Examili Formation der östlichen Vardar Zone in einem intrakontinentalen, sedimentären Becken, nahe der Vertiskos Einheit abgelagert. Untergeordnet wurde auch karbonisches Grundgebirgsmaterial eingetragen. Im frühen bis mittleren Jura wurde die Melissochori Formation der östlichen Vardar Zone am Abhang eines karbonatführenden Kontinentalrandes abgelagert. Der Großteil des detritischen Materials kam von permokarbonischem Grundgebirge vulkanischen Ursprungs, vermutlich von der Pelagonischen Zone und/oder der unteren tektonischen Einheit des Rhodope Massifs. Die Makri Einheit in Thrakien besitzt vermutlich ein ähnliches Alter wie die Melissochori Formation. Beide sedimentären Abfolgen ähneln sich sehr. Der Großteil des detritischen Materials für die Makri Einheit kam vom Grundgebirge der Pelagonischen Zone oder äquivalenten Gesteinen. Während der frühen Kreide wurde die Prinochori Formation der östlichen Vardar Zone im Vorfeld eines heterogenen Deckenstapels abgelagert, der ophiolitisches Material sowie Grundgebirge ähnlich zu dem der Vertiskos Einheit enthielt. Ebenfalls während der Kreidezeit wurde in Thrakien, vermutlich im Vorfeld eines metamorphen Deckenstapels mit Affinitäten zum Grundgebirge der Rhodopen die Melia Formation abgelagert. Zusammenfassend kann festgehalten werden, dass die Subduktion eines Teiles der Paläotethys und die anschließende Akkretion vom Nordrand Gondwanas stammender Mikrokontinente (Terranes) nahe dem südlichen aktiven Kontinentalrand Eurasiens den geodynamischen Rahmen für die Schüttung des detritischen Materials der Sedimente der inneren Helleniden im späten Paläozoikum bildeten. Die darauf folgenden frühmesozoischen Riftprozesse leiteten die Bildung von Ozeanbecken der Neotethys ein. Intraozeanische Subduktion und die Obduzierung von Ophioliten prägten die Zeit des Jura. Die spätjurassische und frühkretazische tektonische Phase wurde durch die Ablagerung von mittelkretazischen Kalksteinen besiegelt. Die endgültige Schließung von Ozeanbecken der Neotethys im Bereich der inneren Helleniden erfolgte schließlich in der späten Kreide und im Tertiär.

Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of ophiolites and mafic-ultramafic complexes in the Northeastern Aegean Region

In this study two ophiolites and a mafic-ultramafic complexes of the northeastern Aegean Sea, Greece, have been investigated to re-evaluate their petrogenetic evolution and tectonic setting. These complexes are: the mafic-ultramafic complex of Lesvos Island and the ophiolites of Samothraki Island and the Evros area. In order to examine these complexes in detail whole-rock major- and trace-elements as well as Sr and Nd isotopes, and minerals were analysed and U-Pb SHRIMP ages on zircons were determined. The mafic-ultramafic complex of Lesvos Island consists of mantle peridotite thrusted over a tectonic mélange containing metasediments, metabasalts and a few metagabbros. This succession had previously been interpreted as an ophiolite of Late Jurassic age. The new field and geochemical data allow a reinterpretation of this complex as representing an incipient continental rift setting that led to the subsequent formation of the Meliata-Maliac-Vardar branches of Neotethys in Upper Permian times (253 ± 6 Ma) and the term “Lesvos ophiolite” should be abandoned. With proceeding subduction and closure of the Maliac Ocean in Late Jurassic times (155 Ma) the Lesvos mafic-ultramafic complex was obducted. Zircon ages of 777, 539 and 338 Ma from a gabbro strongly suggest inheritance from the intruded basement and correspond to ages of distinct terranes recently recognized in the Hellenides (e.g. Florina terrane). Geochemical similar complexes which contain rift associations with Permo-Triassic ages can be found elsewhere in Greece and Turkey, namely the Teke Dere Thrust Sheet below the Lycian Nappes (SW Turkey), the Pindos subophiolitic mélange (W Greece), the Volcanosedimentary Complex on Central Evia Island (Greece) and the Karakaya Complex (NW Turkey). This infers that the rift-related rocks from Lesvos belong to an important Permo-Triassic rifting episode in the eastern Mediterranean. The ‘in-situ’ ophiolite of Samothraki Island comprises gabbros, sparse dykes and basalt flows as well as pillows cut by late dolerite dykes and had conventionally been interpreted as having formed in an ensialic back-arc basin. The results of this study revealed that none of the basalts and dolerites resemble mid-ocean ridge or back-arc basin basalts thus suggesting that the Samothraki ophiolite cannot represent mature back-arc basin crust. The age of the complex is regarded to be 160 ± 5 Ma (i.e. Oxfordian; early Upper Jurassic), which precludes any correlation with the Lesvos mafic-ultramafic complex further south (253 ± 6 Ma; Upper Permian). Restoration of the block configuration in NE Greece, before extensional collapse of the Hellenic hinterland and exhumation of the Rhodope Metamorphic Core Complex (mid-Eocene to mid-Miocene), results in a continuous ophiolite belt from Guevgueli in the NW to Samothraki in the SE, thus assigning the latter to the Innermost Hellenic Ophiolite Belt. In view of the data of this study, the Samothraki ophiolite represents a rift propagation of the Sithonia ophiolite spreading ridge into the Chortiatis calc-alkaline arc. The ophiolite of the Evros area consists of a plutonic sequence comprising cumulate and non-cumulate gabbros with plagiogranite veins, and an extrusive sequence of basalt dykes, massive and pillow lavas as well as pyroclastic rocks. Furthermore, in the Rhodope Massif tectonic lenses of harzburgites and dunites can be found. All rocks are spatially separated. The analytical results of this study revealed an intra-oceanic island arc setting for the Evros ophiolitic rocks. During late Middle Jurassic times (169 ± 2 Ma) an intra-oceanic arc has developed above a northwards directed intra-oceanic subduction zone of the Vardar Ocean in front of the Rhodope Massif. The boninitic, island arc tholeiitic and calc-alkaline rocks reflect the evolution of the Evros island arc. The obduction of the ophiolitic rocks onto the Rhodope basement margin took place during closure of the Vardar ocean basins. The harzburgites and dunites of the Rhodope Massif are strongly depleted and resemble harzburgites from recent oceanic island arcs. After melt extraction they underwent enrichment processes by percolating melts and fluids from the subducted slab. The relationship of the peridotites and the Evros ophiolite is still ambiguous, but the stratigraphic positions of the peridotites and the ophiolitic rocks indicate separated origin. The harzburgites and dunites most probably represent remnants of the mantle wedge of the island arc of the Rhodope terrane formed above subducted slab of the Nestos Ocean in late Middle Jurassic times. During collision of the Thracia terrane with the Rhodope terrane thrusting of the Rhodope terrane onto the Thracia terrane took place, whereas the harzburgites and dunites were pushed between the two terranes now cropping out on top of the Thracia terrane of the Rhodope Massif.

Valutazione affettiva del setting odontoiatrico in età evolutiva

Lo studio si pone l'obiettivo di approfondire il tema della valutazione affettiva del setting odontoiatrico in età evolutiva indagando se possa essere modulata da fattori quali: differenze di genere, specifici quadri patologici (Displasia Ectodermica e Patologie Sistemiche Croniche) responsabili di pregresse esperienze odontoiatriche e/o ospedalizzazioni; stato affettivo del bambino, stato affettivo del genitore. Materiali e metodi Studio 1. 85 soggetti [39 (19 maschi e 20 femmine) affetti da PSC e 46 (26 maschi e 20 femmine) soggetti sani] (range di età: 5-14 anni). Sono stati somministrati: un compito di valutazione immagini con 36 immagini (12 a contenuto piacevole, 12 neutro e 12 spiacevole) dallo IAPS e 12 immagini a contenuto odontoiatrico e dei questionari (MCDASf, CFSS-DS, TAD). Studio 2. 45 soggetti (19 maschi affetti da EDs e 26 maschi sani) (range di età: 5-14 anni). Sono stati somministrati: il compito di valutazione immagini precedentemente descritto e i questionari (MCDASf, CFSS-DS, TAD). Studio 3. 104 bambini (64 maschi and 40 femmine) (range di età: 5-14 anni) e uno dei genitori (19 padri and 69 madri). Sono stati somministrati i questionari MCDASf, CFSS-DS, TAD ai bambini e FDPQ, STAI-Y1, Y2-BDI-II ai genitori. Risultati: il contesto odontoiatrico ha una caratterizzazione affettiva distinta rispetto a contesti piacevoli, spiacevoli o neutri; specifici quadri patologici (EDs e PSC) non sembrano modulare il tipo di valutazione affettiva del contesto odontoiatrico; le femmine, attribuiscono al contesto odontoiatrico una valenza significativamente più spiacevole e una maggiore attivazione emotiva rispetto ai maschi; la paura del dolore odontoiatrico del genitore ha una correlazione con l’ansia dei bambini. Conclusione: è importante che l’odontoiatra consideri che la risposta emotiva delle bambine può essere caratterizzata da vissuti di paura con tendenza a comportamenti di allontanamento e valuti se la figura genitoriale rappresenta una risorsa o un elemento disturbante nella corso della seduta stessa.

Modelli matematici applicati alla probabilità di default nei sistemi di rating.

L'obiettivo del seguente lavoro è determinare attraverso l'uso di procedure statistico-econometriche, in particolare del metodo ECM, le previsioni per i tassi di default nel triennio 2013-2015, partendo dalle serie storiche di questi ultimi e da quelle macroeconomiche.

Econometrics of default risk

This thesis is the result of a project aimed at the study of a crucial topic in finance: default risk, whose measurement and modelling have achieved increasing relevance in recent years. We investigate the main issues related to the default phenomenon, under both a methodological and empirical perspective. The topics of default predictability and correlation are treated with a constant attention to the modelling solutions and reviewing critically the literature. From the methodological point of view, our analysis results in the proposal of a new class of models, called Poisson Autoregression with Exogenous Covariates (PARX). The PARX models, including both autoregressive end exogenous components, are able to capture the dynamics of default count time series, characterized by persistence of shocks and slowly decaying autocorrelation. Application of different PARX models to the monthly default counts of US industrial firms in the period 1982-2011 allows an empirical insight of the defaults dynamics and supports the identification of the main default predictors at an aggregate level.

Evaluation of Antitumoral activity of bone targeted drugs/conventional chemotherapies and identification of biomarkers for the selection of patients with breast cancer for the bone targeted therapy in adjuvant setting

Bone metastases are responsible for different clinical complications defined as skeletal-related events (SREs) such as pathologic fractures, spinal cord compression, hypercalcaemia, bone marrow infiltration and severe bone pain requiring palliative radiotherapy. The general aim of these three years research period was to improve the management of patients with bone metastases through two different approaches of translational research. Firstly in vitro preclinical tests were conducted on breast cancer cells and on indirect co-colture of cancer cells and osteoclasts to evaluate bone targeted therapy singly and in combination with conventional chemotherapy. The study suggests that zoledronic acid has an antitumor activity in breast cancer cell lines. Its mechanism of action involves the decrease of RAS and RHO, as in osteoclasts. Repeated treatment enhances antitumor activity compared to non-repeated treatment. Furthermore the combination Zoledronic Acid + Cisplatin induced a high antitumoral activity in the two triple-negative lines MDA-MB-231 and BRC-230. The p21, pMAPK and m-TOR pathways were regulated by this combined treatment, particularly at lower Cisplatin doses. A co-colture system to test the activity of bone-targeted molecules on monocytes-breast conditioned by breast cancer cells was also developed. Another important criticism of the treatment of breast cancer patients, is the selection of patients who will benefit of bone targeted therapy in the adjuvant setting. A retrospective case-control study on breast cancer patients to find new predictive markers of bone metastases in the primary tumors was performed. Eight markers were evaluated and TFF1 and CXCR4 were found to discriminate between patients with relapse to bone respect to patients with no evidence of disease. In particular TFF1 was the most accurate marker reaching a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 79%. This marker could be a useful tool for clinicians to select patients who could benefit for bone targeted therapy in adjuvant setting.

Gesù continuatore di Giovanni. Studio storico-esegetico sulla relazione tra Gesù di Nazaret e Giovanni il Battista

L’enigma della relazione tra Gesù e Giovanni il Battista ha da sempre stimolato l’immaginazione storica degli studiosi, suscitando una varietà di ipotesi e valutazioni, spesso assai diverse. Ciò nonostante, tutti concordano su un punto: che, almeno nella sua fase maggiore in Galilea, il ministero di Gesù fosse una realtà essenzialmente autonoma, diversa, originale e irriducibile rispetto alla missione di Giovanni. In controtendenza con questa “impostazione predefinita”, il presente studio sostiene la tesi secondo cui Gesù portò avanti la sua missione come intenzionale e programmatica prosecuzione dell’opera prematuramente interrotta di Giovanni. Nella prima parte, si esamina approfonditamente quale memoria della relazione sia conservata nelle fonti più antiche, cioè Q (qui analizzata con particolare attenzione) e Marco – a cui si aggiunge Matteo, che, in ragione dello stretto legame storico-sociologico con Q, offre un esempio illuminante di rinarrazione della memoria altamente originale eppure profondamente fedele. La conclusione è che la memoria più antica della relazione Gesù-Giovanni è profondamente segnata da aspetti di accordo, conformità e allineamento. Nella seconda parte si esaminano una serie di tradizioni che attestano che Gesù era percepito pubblicamente in relazione al Battista e che egli stesso condivideva e alimentava tale percezione riallacciandosi a lui in polemica con i suoi avversari, e dipingendolo come una figura di capitale importanza nella predicazione e nell’insegnamento a seguaci e discepoli. Infine, si argomenta l’esistenza di ampie e sostanziali aree di accordo tra i due a livello di escatologia, istruzioni etiche e programma sociale, missione penitenziale verso i peccatori e attività battesimale. L’ipotesi che Gesù portasse avanti l’attività riformatrice di Giovanni, in termini di una campagna purificatoria “penitenziale-battesimale-esorcistica” in preparazione dell’avvento di Dio, consente infine di armonizzare in modo soddisfacente i due aspetti più caratteristici dell’attività di Gesù (normalmente giustapposti, quando non contrapposti): escatologia e miracoli, il Gesù profeta e il Gesù taumaturgo.