Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison

We compare the quasi-equilibrium heat balances, as well as their responses to 4×CO2 perturbation, among three global climate models with the aim to identify and explain inter-model differences in ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes. We find that, in quasi-equilibrium, convective and mixed layer processes, as well as eddy-related processes, cause cooling of the subsurface ocean. The cooling is balanced by warming caused by advective and diapycnally diffusive processes. We also find that in the CO2-perturbed climates the largest contribution to OHU comes from changes in vertical mixing processes and the mean circulation, particularly in the extra-tropics, caused both by changes in wind forcing, and by changes in high-latitude buoyancy forcing. There is a substantial warming in the tropics, a significant part of which occurs because of changes in horizontal advection in extra-tropics. Diapycnal diffusion makes only a weak contribution to the OHU, mainly in the tropics, due to increased stratification. There are important qualitative differences in the contribution of eddy-induced advection and isopycnal diffusion to the OHU among the models. The former is related to the different values of the coefficients used in the corresponding scheme. The latter is related to the different tapering formulations of the isopycnal diffusion scheme. These differences affect the OHU in the deep ocean, which is substantial in two of the models, the dominant region of deep warming being the Southern Ocean. However, most of the OHU takes place above 2000 m, and the three models are quantitatively similar in their global OHU efficiency and its breakdown among processes and as a function of latitude.

The impact of salinity perturbations on the future uptake of heat by the Atlantic Ocean

Anthropogenic ocean heat uptake is a key factor in determining climate change and sea-level rise. There is considerable uncertainty in projections of freshwater forcing of the ocean, with the potential to influence ocean heat uptake. We investigatethis by adding either -0.1 Sv or +0.1 Sv freshwater to the Atlantic in global climate model simulations, simultaneously imposing an atmospheric CO2 increase. The resulting changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are roughly equal and opposite (±2Sv). The impact of the perturbation on ocean heat content is more complex, although it is relatively small (~5%) compared to the total anthropogenic heat uptake. Several competing processes either accelerate or retard warming at different depths. Whilst positive freshwater perturbations cause an overall heating of the Atlantic, negative perturbations produce insignificant net changes in heat content. The processes active in our model appear robust, although their net result is likely model- and experiment-dependent.

A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component

About 90% of the anthropogenic increase in heat stored in the climate system is found the oceans. Therefore it is relevant to understand the details of ocean heat uptake. Here we present a detailed, process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes in HiGEM1.2, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with an eddy-permitting ocean component of 1/3 degree resolution. Similarly to various other models, HiGEM1.2 shows that the global heat budget is dominated by a downward advection of heat compensated by upward isopycnal diffusion. Only in the upper tropical ocean do we find the classical balance between downward diapycnal diffusion and upward advection of heat. The upward isopycnal diffusion of heat is located mostly in the Southern Ocean, which thus dominates the global heat budget. We compare the responses to a 4xCO2 forcing and an enhancement of the windstress forcing in the Southern Ocean. This highlights the importance of regional processes for the global ocean heat uptake. These are mainly surface fluxes and convection in the high latitudes, and advection in the Southern Ocean mid-latitudes. Changes in diffusion are less important. In line with the CMIP5 models, HiGEM1.2 shows a band of strong OHU in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean in the 4xCO2 run, which is mostly advective. By contrast, in the high-latitude Southern Ocean regions it is the suppression of convection that leads to OHU. In the enhanced windstress run, convection is strengthened at high Southern latitudes, leading to heat loss, while the magnitude of the OHU in the Southern mid-latitudes is very similar to the 4xCO2 results. Remarkably, there is only very small global OHU in the enhanced windstress run. The wind stress forcing just leads to a redistribution of heat. We relate the ocean changes at high southern latitudes to the effect of climate change on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It weakens in the 4xCO2 run and strengthens in the wind stress run. The weakening is due to a narrowing of the ACC, caused by an expansion of the Weddell Gyre, and a flattening of the isopycnals, which are explained by a combination of the wind stress forcing and increased precipitation.

Effect of seasonal variation on some physical properties and heat stability of milk subjected to ultra-high temperature and in-container sterilisation

Heat stability was evaluated in bulk raw milk, collected throughout the year and subjected to ultra-high temperature (UHT) or in-container sterilisation, with and without added calcium chloride (2 mM), disodium hydrogen phosphate (DSHP, 10 mM) and trisodium citrate (TSC, 10 mM). More sediment was observed following in-container sterilisation (0.24%) compared with UHT (0.19%). Adding CaCl2 made the milk more unstable to UHT than to in-container sterilisation, while adding DSHP and TSC made the milk more unstable during in-container sterilisation than to UHT processing, although TSC addition increased the sediment formed by UHT processing. Better heat stability was observed in autumn and winter than in spring and summer following UHT. However, following in-container sterilisation, samples with added stabilising salts showed significantly improved heat stability in autumn, whereas with added CaCl2, the best heat stability was observed in spring. No correlation was found between urea and heat stability. DSHP and TSC made the milk more unstable during in-container sterilisation than to UHT processing, although TSC addition increased the sediment formed by UHT processing. Better heat stability was observed in autumn and winter than in spring and summer following UHT. However, following in-container sterilisation, samples with added stabilising salts showed significantly improved heat stability in autumn, whereas with added CaCl2, the best heat stability was observed in spring. No correlation was found between urea and heat stability.

A traceable physical calibration of the vertical advection-diffusion equation for modelling ocean heat uptake

The classic vertical advection-diffusion (VAD) balance is a central concept in studying the ocean heat budget, in particular in simple climate models (SCMs). Here we present a new framework to calibrate the parameters of the VAD equation to the vertical ocean heat balance of two fully-coupled climate models that is traceable to the models’ circulation as well as to vertical mixing and diffusion processes. Based on temperature diagnostics, we derive an effective vertical velocity w∗ and turbulent diffusivity k∗ for each individual physical process. In steady-state, we find that the residual vertical velocity and diffusivity change sign in mid-depth, highlighting the different regional contributions of isopycnal and diapycnal diffusion in balancing the models’ residual advection and vertical mixing. We quantify the impacts of the time-evolution of the effective quantities under a transient 1%CO2 simulation and make the link to the parameters of currently employed SCMs.

Simulations of a photovoltaic-thermal ground source heat pump system

A ground source heat pump assisted by an array of photovoltaic (PV)-thermal modules was studied in this work. Extracting heat from an array of PV modules should improve the performance of both the PV cells and the heat pump. A series of computer simulations compare the performance of a ground source heat pump with a short ground circuit, used to provide space heating and domestic hot water at a house in southern England. The results indicate that extracting heat from an array of PV-thermal modules would improve the performance of a ground source heat pump with an undersized ground loop. Nevertheless, open air thermal collectors could be more effective, especially during winter. In one model more electricity was saved in ohmic heating than was generated by cooling the PV cells. Cooling the PV modules was found to increase their electrical output up to 4%, but much of the extra electricity was consumed by the cooling pumps.

Network optimization for enhanced resilience of urban heat island measurements

The urban heat island is a well-known phenomenon that impacts a wide variety of city operations. With greater availability of cheap meteorological sensors, it is possible to measure the spatial patterns of urban atmospheric characteristics with greater resolution. To develop robust and resilient networks, recognizing sensors may malfunction, it is important to know when measurement points are providing additional information and also the minimum number of sensors needed to provide spatial information for particular applications. Here we consider the example of temperature data, and the urban heat island, through analysis of a network of sensors in the Tokyo metropolitan area (Extended METROS). The effect of reducing observation points from an existing meteorological measurement network is considered, using random sampling and sampling with clustering. The results indicated the sampling with hierarchical clustering can yield similar temperature patterns with up to a 30% reduction in measurement sites in Tokyo. The methods presented have broader utility in evaluating the robustness and resilience of existing urban temperature networks and in how networks can be enhanced by new mobile and open data sources.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 1: Structure parameters

Scintillometry, a form of ground-based remote sensing, provides the capability to estimate surface heat fluxes over scales of a few hundred metres to kilometres. Measurements are spatial averages, making this technique particularly valuable over areas with moderate heterogeneity such as mixed agricultural or urban environments. In this study, we present the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, which can be related to the sensible and latent heat fluxes through similarity theory, for a suburban area in the UK. The fluxes are provided in the second paper of this two-part series. A millimetre-wave scintillometer was combined with an infrared scintillometer along a 5.5 km path over northern Swindon. The pairing of these two wavelengths offers sensitivity to both temperature and humidity fluctuations, and the correlation between wavelengths is also used to retrieve the path-averaged temperature–humidity correlation. Comparison is made with structure parameters calculated from an eddy covariance station located close to the centre of the scintillometer path. The performance of the measurement techniques under different conditions is discussed. Similar behaviour is seen between the two data sets at sub-daily timescales. For the two summer-to-winter periods presented here, similar evolution is displayed across the seasons. A higher vegetation fraction within the scintillometer source area is consistent with the lower Bowen ratio observed (midday Bowen ratio < 1) compared with more built-up areas around the eddy covariance station. The energy partitioning is further explored in the companion paper.

Subsurface urban heat island and its effects on horizontal ground-source heat pump potential under climate change

Recent urban air temperature increase is attributable to the climate change and heat island effects due to urbanization. This combined effects of urbanization and global warming can penetrate into the underground and elevate the subsurface temperature. In the present study, over-100 years measurements of subsurface temperature at a remote rural site were analysed, and an increasing rate of 0.17⁰C per decade at soil depth of 30cm due to climate change was identified in the UK, but the subsurface warming in an urban site showed a much higher rate of 0.85⁰C per decade at a 30cm depth and 1.18⁰C per decade at 100cm. The subsurface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity obtained at the paired urban-rural stations in London showed an unique 'U-shape', i.e. lowest in summer and highest during winter. The maximum SUHII is 3.5⁰C at 6:00 AM in December, and the minimum UHII is 0.2⁰C at 18:00PM in July. Finally, the effects of SUHI on the energy efficiency of the horizontal ground source heat pump (GSHP) were determined. Provided the same heat pump used, the installation at an urban site will maintain an overall higher COP compared with that at a rural site in all seasons, but the highest COP improvement can be achieved in winter.

Heat treatment enhances the antimicrobial activity of (+)-Catechin when combined with copper sulphate

The aim of the study was to compare the antimicrobial activities of freshly-made, heat-treated (HT), and 14 d stored (+)-Catechin solutions with (+)-catechin flavanol isomers in the presence of copper sulphate. (+)-Catechin activity was investigated when combined with different ratios of Cu2+; 100°C heat treatment; autoclaving; and 14 d storage against Staphylococcus aureus. Cu2+-(+)-Catechin complexation, isomer structure-activity relationships, and H2O2 generation were also investigated. Freshly-made, HT, and 14d stored flavanols showed no activity. Whilst combined Cu2+-autoclaved (+)-Catechin and -HT(+)-Catechin activities were similar, HT(+)-Catechin was more active than either freshly-made (+)-catechin (generating more H2O2) or (-)-Epicatechin (though it generated less H2O2) or 14d-(+)-Catechin (which had similar activity to Cu2+ controls - though it generated more H2O2). When combined with Cu2+, in terms of rates of activity, HT(+)-Catechin was lower than (-)-Epigallocatechin gallate and greater than freshly-made (+)-Catechin. Freshly-made and HT(+)-Catechin formed acidic complexes with Cu2+ as indicated by pH and UV-vis measurements although pH changes did not account for antimicrobial activity. Freshly-made and HT(+)-Catechin both formed Cu2+ complexes. The HT(+)-Catechin complex generated more H2O2 which could explain its higher antimicrobial activity.

Effect of high pressure homogenisation and heat treatment on physical properties and stability of almond and hazelnut milks

The effect of high pressure homogenisation (HPH) and heat treatments on physicochemical properties and physical stability of almond and hazelnut milks was studied. Vegetable milks were obtained and homogenised by applying 62, 103 and 172 MPa (MF1, MF2 and MF3, respectively). Untreated and MF3 samples were also submitted to two different heat treatments (85 °C/30 min (LH) or 121 °C/15 min (HH)). Physical and structural properties of the products were greatly affected by heat treatments and HPH. In almond milk, homogenised samples showed a significant reduction in particle size, which turned from bimodal and polydisperse to monodisperse distributions. Particle surface charge, clarity and Whiteness Index were increased and physical stability of samples was improved, without affecting either viscosity or protein stability. Hazelnut beverages showed similar trends, but HPH notably increased their viscosity while change their rheological behaviour, which suggested changes in protein conformation. HH treatments caused an increment of particle size due to the formation oil droplet-protein body clusters, associated with protein denaturation. Samples submitted to the combined treatment MF3 and LH showed the greatest stability.

Nonlinearity of ocean heat uptake during warming and cooling in the FAMOUS climate model

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to continue rising in the coming decades, but natural or artificial processes may eventually reduce it. We show that, in the FAMOUS atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, the reduction of ocean heat content as radiative forcing decreases is greater than would be expected from a linear model simulation of the response to the applied forcings. We relate this effect to the behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the ocean cools more efficiently with a strong AMOC. The AMOC weakens as CO2 rises, then strengthens as CO2 declines, but temporarily overshoots its original strength. This nonlinearity comes mainly from the accumulated advection of salt into the North Atlantic, which gives the system a longer memory. This implies that changes observed in response to different CO2 scenarios or from different initial states, such as from past changes, may not be a reliable basis for making projections.

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.