Elucidating the links between UV radiation and vitamin D synthesis : using an in vitro model

Ultraviolet radiation (UV) is the carcinogen that causes the most common malignancy in humans – skin cancer. However, moderate UV exposure is essential for producing vitaminDin our skin. VitaminDincreases the absorption of calcium from the diet, and adequate calcium is necessary for the building and maintenance of bones. Thus, low levels of vitamin D can cause osteomalacia and rickets and contribute to osteoporosis. Emerging evidence also suggests vitamin D may protect against falls, internal cancers, psychiatric conditions, autoimmune diseases and cardiovascular diseases. Since the dominant source of vitamin D is sunlight exposure, there is a need to understand what is a “balanced” level of sun exposure to maintain an adequate level of vitamin D but minimise the risks of eye damage, skin damage and skin cancer resulting from excessive UV exposure. There are many steps in the pathway from incoming solar UV to the eventual vitamin D status of humans (measured as 25-hydroxyvitamin D in the blood), and our knowledge about many of these steps is currently incomplete. This project begins by investigating the levels of UV available for synthesising vitamin D, and how these levels vary across seasons, latitudes and times of the day. The thesis then covers experiments conducted with an in vitro model, which was developed to study several aspects of vitamin D synthesis. Results from the model suggest the relationship between UV dose and vitamin D is not linear. This is an important input into public health messages regarding ‘safe’ UV exposure: larger doses of UV, beyond a certain limit, may not continue to produce vitamin D; however, they will increase the risk of skin cancers and eye damage. The model also showed that, when given identical doses of UV, the amount of vitamin D produced was impacted by temperature. In humans, a temperature-dependent reaction must occur in the top layers of human skin, prior to vitamin D entering the bloodstream. The hypothesis will be raised that cooler temperatures (occurring in winter and at high latitudes) may reduce vitamin D production in humans. Finally, the model has also been used to study the wavelengths of UV thought to be responsible for producing vitamin D. It appears that vitamin D production is limited to a small range of UV wavelengths, which may be narrower than previously thought. Together, these results suggest that further research is needed into the ability of humans to synthesise vitamin D from sunlight. In particular, more information is needed about the dose-response relationship in humans and to investigate the proposed impact of temperature. Having an accurate action spectrum will also be essential for measuring the available levels of vitamin D-effective UV. As this research continues, it will contribute to the scientific evidence-base needed for devising a public health message that will balance the risks of excessive UV exposure with maintaining adequate vitamin D.

Model round-trip engineering

In the quest for shorter time-to-market, higher quality and reduced cost, model-driven software development has emerged as a promising approach to software engineering. The central idea is to promote models to first-class citizens in the development process. Starting from a set of very abstract models in the early stage of the development, they are refined into more concrete models and finally, as a last step, into code. As early phases of development focus on different concepts compared to later stages, various modelling languages are employed to most accurately capture the concepts and relations under discussion. In light of this refinement process, translating between modelling languages becomes a time-consuming and error-prone necessity. This is remedied by model transformations providing support for reusing and automating recurring translation efforts. These transformations typically can only be used to translate a source model into a target model, but not vice versa. This poses a problem if the target model is subject to change. In this case the models get out of sync and therefore do not constitute a coherent description of the software system anymore, leading to erroneous results in later stages. This is a serious threat to the promised benefits of quality, cost-saving, and time-to-market. Therefore, providing a means to restore synchronisation after changes to models is crucial if the model-driven vision is to be realised. This process of reflecting changes made to a target model back to the source model is commonly known as Round-Trip Engineering (RTE). While there are a number of approaches to this problem, they impose restrictions on the nature of the model transformation. Typically, in order for a transformation to be reversed, for every change to the target model there must be exactly one change to the source model. While this makes synchronisation relatively “easy”, it is ill-suited for many practically relevant transformations as they do not have this one-to-one character. To overcome these issues and to provide a more general approach to RTE, this thesis puts forward an approach in two stages. First, a formal understanding of model synchronisation on the basis of non-injective transformations (where a number of different source models can correspond to the same target model) is established. Second, detailed techniques are devised that allow the implementation of this understanding of synchronisation. A formal underpinning for these techniques is drawn from abductive logic reasoning, which allows the inference of explanations from an observation in the context of a background theory. As non-injective transformations are the subject of this research, there might be a number of changes to the source model that all equally reflect a certain target model change. To help guide the procedure in finding “good” source changes, model metrics and heuristics are investigated. Combining abductive reasoning with best-first search and a “suitable” heuristic enables efficient computation of a number of “good” source changes. With this procedure Round-Trip Engineering of non-injective transformations can be supported.

Micro-family-owned business : transitory survival mechanism or long term wealth creator?

Principal Topic: Entrepreneurship is key to employment, innovation and growth (Acs & Mueller, 2008), and as such, has been the subject of tremendous research in both the economic and management literatures since Solow (1957), Schumpeter (1934, 1943), and Penrose (1959). The presence of entrepreneurs in the economy is a key factor in the success or failure of countries to grow (Audretsch and Thurik, 2001; Dejardin, 2001). Further studies focus on the conditions of existence of entrepreneurship, influential factors invoked are historical, cultural, social, institutional, or purely economic (North, 1997; Thurik 1996 & 1999). Of particular interest, beyond the reasons behind the existence of entrepreneurship, are entrepreneurial survival and good ''performance'' factors. Using cross-country firm data analysis, La Porta & Schleifer (2008) confirm that informal micro-businesses provide on average half of all economic activity in developing countries. They find that these are utterly unproductive compared to formal firms, and conclude that the informal sector serves as a social security net ''keep[ing] millions of people alive, but disappearing over time'' (abstract). Robison (1986), Hill (1996, 1997) posit that the Indonesian government under Suharto always pointed to the lack of indigenous entrepreneurship , thereby motivating the nationalisation of all industries. Furthermore, the same literature also points to the fact that small businesses were mostly left out of development programmes because they were supposed less productive and having less productivity potential than larger ones. Vial (2008) challenges this view and shows that small firms represent about 70% of firms, 12% of total output, but contribute to 25% of total factor productivity growth on average over the period 1975-94 in the industrial sector (Table 10, p.316). ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: A review of the empirical literature points at several under-researched questions. Firstly, we assess whether there is, evidence of small family-business entrepreneurship in Indonesia. Secondly, we examine and present the characteristics of these enterprises, along with the size of the sector, and its dynamics. Thirdly, we study whether these enterprises underperform compared to the larger scale industrial sector, as it is suggested in the literature. We reconsider performance measurements for micro-family owned businesses. We suggest that, beside productivity measures, performance could be appraised by both the survival probability of the firm, and by the amount of household assets formation. We compare micro-family-owned and larger industrial firms' survival probabilities after the 1997 crisis, their capital productivity, then compare household assets of families involved in business with those who do not. Finally, we examine human and social capital as moderators of enterprises' performance. In particular, we assess whether a higher level of education and community participation have an effect on the likelihood of running a family business, and whether it has an impact on households' assets level. We use the IFLS database compiled and published by RAND Corporation. The data is a rich community, households, and individuals panel dataset in four waves: 1993, 1997, 2000, 2007. We now focus on the waves 1997 and 2000 in order to investigate entrepreneurship behaviours in turbulent times, i.e. the 1997 Asian crisis. We use aggregate individual data, and focus on households data in order to study micro-family-owned businesses. IFLS data covers roughly 7,600 households in 1997 and over 10,000 households in 2000, with about 95% of 1997 households re-interviewed in 2000. Households were interviewed in 13 of the 27 provinces as defined before 2001. Those 13 provinces were targeted because accounting for 83% of the population. A full description of the data is provided in Frankenberg and Thomas (2000), and Strauss et alii (2004). We deflate all monetary values in Rupiah with the World Development Indicators Consumer Price Index base 100 in 2000. ---------- Results and Implications: We find that in Indonesia, entrepreneurship is widespread and two thirds of households hold one or several family businesses. In rural areas, in 2000, 75% of households run one or several businesses. The proportion of households holding both a farm and a non farm business is higher in rural areas, underlining the reliance of rural households on self-employment, especially after the crisis. Those businesses come in various sizes from very small to larger ones. The median business production value represents less than the annual national minimum wage. Figures show that at least 75% of farm businesses produce less than the annual minimum wage, with non farm businesses being more numerous to produce the minimum wage. However, this is only one part of the story, as production is not the only ''output'' or effect of the business. We show that the survival rate of those businesses ranks between 70 and 82% after the 1997 crisis, which contrasts with the 67% survival rate for the formal industrial sector (Ter Wengel & Rodriguez, 2006). Micro Family Owned Businesses might be relatively small in terms of production, they also provide stability in times of crisis. For those businesses that provide business assets figures, we show that capital productivity is fairly high, with rates that are ten times higher for non farm businesses. Results show that households running a business have larger family assets, and households are better off in urban areas. We run a panel logit model in order to test the effect of human and social capital on the existence of businesses among households. We find that non farm businesses are more likely to appear in households with higher human and social capital situated in urban areas. Farm businesses are more likely to appear in lower human capital and rural contexts, while still being supported by community participation. The estimation of our panel data model confirm that households are more likely to have higher family assets if situated in urban area, the higher the education level, the larger the assets, and running a business increase the likelihood of having larger assets. This is especially true for non farm businesses that have a clearly larger and more significant effect on assets than farm businesses. Finally, social capital in the form of community participation also has a positive effect on assets. Those results confirm the existence of a strong entrepreneurship culture among Indonesian households. Investigating survival rates also shows that those businesses are quite stable, even in the face of a violent crisis such as the 1997 one, and as a result, can provide a safety net. Finally, considering household assets - the returns of business to the household, rather than profit or productivity - the returns of business to itself, shows that households running a business are better off. While we demonstrate that uman and social capital are key to business existence, survival and performance, those results open avenues for further research regarding the factors that could hamper growth of those businesses in terms of output and employment.

A Marxian model of technology appropriation

This paper explores the philosophical roots of appropriation within Marx's theories and socio-cultural studies in an attempt to seek common ground among existing theories of technology appropriation in IS research. Drawing on appropriation perspectives from Adaptive Structuration Theory, the Model of Technology Appropriation and the Structurational Model of Technology for comparison, we aim to generate a Marxian model that provides a starting point toward a general causal model of technology appropriation. This paper opens a philosophical discussion on the phenomenon of appropriation in the IS community, directing attention to foundational concepts in the human-technology nexus using ideas conceived by Marx.

An Integrative framework of the factors affecting process model understanding : a learning perspective

Process models are used by information professionals to convey semantics about the business operations in a real world domain intended to be supported by an information system. The understandability of these models is vital to them actually being used. After all, what is not understood cannot be acted upon. Yet until now, understandability has primarily been defined as an intrinsic quality of the models themselves. Moreover, those studies that looked at understandability from a user perspective have mainly conceptualized users through rather arbitrary sets of variables. In this paper we advance an integrative framework to understand the role of the user in the process of understanding process models. Building on cognitive psychology, goal-setting theory and multimedia learning theory, we identify three stages of learning required to realize model understanding, these being Presage, Process, and Product. We define eight relevant user characteristics in the Presage stage of learning, three knowledge construction variables in the Process stage and three potential learning outcomes in the Product stage. To illustrate the benefits of the framework, we review existing process modeling work to identify where our framework can complement and extend existing studies.

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Sustained release and osteogenic potential of heparan sulfate-doped fibrin glue scaffolds within a rat cranial model

This paper explores the potential therapeutic role of the naturally occurring sugar heparan sulfate (HS) for the augmentation of bone repair. Scaffolds comprising fibrin glue loaded with 5 lg of embryonically derived HS were assessed, firstly as a release-reservoir, and secondly as a scaffold to stimulate bone regeneration in a critical size rat cranial defect. We show HS-loaded scaffolds have a uniform distribution of HS, which was readily released with a typical burst phase, quickly followed by a prolonged delivery lasting several days. Importantly, the released HS contributed to improved wound healing over a 3-month period as determined by microcomputed tomography (lCT) scanning, histology, histomorphometry, and PCR for osteogenic markers. In all cases, only minimal healing was observed after 1 and 3 months in the absence of HS. In contrast, marked healing was observed by 3 months following HS treatment, with nearly full closure of the defect site. PCR analysis showed significant increases in the gene expression of the osteogenic markers Runx2, alkaline phosphatase, and osteopontin in the heparin sulfate group compared with controls. These results further emphasize the important role HS plays in augmenting wound healing, and its successful delivery in a hydrogel provides a novel alternative to autologous bone graft and growth factorbased therapies.

Managing process model complexity via abstract syntax modifications

As a result of the growing adoption of Business Process Management (BPM) technology different stakeholders need to understand and agree upon the process models that are used to configure BPM systems. However, BPM users have problems dealing with the complexity of such models. Therefore, the challenge is to improve the comprehension of process models. While a substantial amount of literature is devoted to this topic, there is no overview of the various mechanisms that exist to deal with managing complexity in (large) process models. It is thus hard to obtain comparative insight into the degree of support offered for various complexity reducing mechanisms by state-of-the-art languages and tools. This paper focuses on complexity reduction mechanisms that affect the abstract syntax of a process model, i.e. the structure of a process model. These mechanisms are captured as patterns, so that they can be described in their most general form and in a language- and tool-independent manner. The paper concludes with a comparative overview of the degree of support for these patterns offered by state-of-the-art languages and language implementations.

Developing a life-cycle costing analysis model for sustainability enhancement in road infrastructure project

With increasing pressure to provide environmentally responsible infrastructure products and services, stakeholders are putting significant foci on the early identification of financial viability and outcome of infrastructure projects. Traditionally, there has been an imbalance between sustainable measures and project budget. On one hand, the industry tends to employ the first-cost mentality and approach to developing infrastructure projects. On the other, environmental experts and technology innovators often push for the ultimately green products and systems without much of a concern for cost. This situation is being quickly changed as the industry is under pressure to continue to return profit, while better adapting to current and emerging global issues of sustainability. For the infrastructure sector to contribute to sustainable development, it will need to increase value and efficiency. Thus, there is a great need for tools that will enable decision makers evaluate competing initiatives and identify the most sustainable approaches to procuring infrastructure projects. In order to ensure that these objectives are achieved, the concept of life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA) will play significant roles in the economics of an infrastructure project. Recently, a few research initiatives have applied the LCCA models for road infrastructure that focused on the traditional economics of a project. There is little coverage of life-cycle costing as a method to evaluate the criteria and assess the economic implications of pursuing sustainability in road infrastructure projects. To rectify this problem, this paper reviews the theoretical basis of previous LCCA models before discussing their inability to determinate the sustainability indicators in road infrastructure project. It then introduces an on-going research aimed at developing a new model to integrate the various new cost elements based on the sustainability indicators with the traditional and proven LCCA approach. It is expected that the research will generate a working model for sustainability based life-cycle cost analysis.

Developing a conceptual model for measuring the satisfaction levels of Malaysian contractors

The evaluation of satisfaction levels related to performance is an important aspect in increasing market share, improving profitability and enlarging opportunities for repeat business and can lead to the determination of areas to be improved, improving harmonious working relationships and conflict avoidance. In the construction industry, this can also result in improved project quality, enhanced reputation and increased competitiveness. Many conceptual models have been developed to measure satisfaction levels - typically to gauge client satisfaction, customer satisfaction and home buyer satisfaction - but limited empirical research has been carried out, especially in investigating the satisfaction of construction contractors. In addressing this, this paper provides a unique conceptual model or framework for contractor satisfaction based on attributes identified by interviews with practitioners in Malaysia. In addition to progressing research in this topic and being of potential benefit to Malaysian contractors, it is anticipated that the framework will also be useful for other parties - clients, designers, subcontractors and suppliers - in enhancing the quality of products and/or services generally.

Are organ donation communication decisions reasoned or reactive? A test of the utility of an augmented Theory of Planned Behaviour with the Prototype/Willingness Model

Objectives: To explore whether people's organ donation consent decisions occur via a reasoned and/or social reaction pathway. --------- Design: We examined prospectively students' and community members' decisions to register consent on a donor register and discuss organ donation wishes with family. --------- Method: Participants completed items assessing theory of planned behaviour (TPB; attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control (PBC)), prototype/willingness model (PWM; donor prototype favourability/similarity, past behaviour), and proposed additional influences (moral norm, self-identity, recipient prototypes) for registering (N=339) and discussing (N=315) intentions/willingness. Participants self-reported their registering (N=177) and discussing (N=166) behaviour 1 month later. The utility of the (1) TPB, (2) PWM, (3) augmented TPB with PWM, and (4) augmented TPB with PWM and extensions was tested using structural equation modelling for registering and discussing intentions/willingness, and logistic regression for behaviour. --------- Results: While the TPB proved a more parsimonious model, fit indices suggested that the other proposed models offered viable options, explaining greater variance in communication intentions/willingness. The TPB, augmented TPB with PWM, and extended augmented TPB with PWM best explained registering and discussing decisions. The proposed and revised PWM also proved an adequate fit for discussing decisions. Respondents with stronger intentions (and PBC for registering) had a higher likelihood of registering and discussing. --------- Conclusions: People's decisions to communicate donation wishes may be better explained via a reasoned pathway (especially for registering); however, discussing involves more reactive elements. The role of moral norm, self-identity, and prototypes as influences predicting communication decisions were highlighted also.

The implementation of a novel, bio-inspired, robotic security system

The implementation of a robotic security solution generally requires one algorithm to route the robot around the environment and another algorithm to perform anomaly detection. Solutions to the routing problem require the robot to have a good estimate of its own pose. We present a novel security system that uses metrics generated by the localisation algorithm to perform adaptive anomaly detection. The localisation algorithm is a vision-based SLAM solution called RatSLAM, based on mechanisms within the hippocampus. The anomaly detection algorithm is based on the mechanisms used by the immune system to identify threats to the body. The system is explored using data gathered within an unmodified office environment. It is shown that the algorithm successfully reacts to the presence of people and objects in areas where they are not usually present and is tolerised against the presence of people in environments that are usually dynamic.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.