A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Intellectuals in a Network A New Generation Faces the Challenges of Development

Brazilian social thought draws on the inspiration of past masters the common denominator of whose work is probably a deep humanism. Confronting the challenges of a fluid, ever-changing reality is now a matter of survival. The idea of climate change has made the environment, long relegated to second place, a matter of much wider interest and concern. The other great problem is poverty, and here, while there have been undeniable advances, much remains to be done. The main challenge is producing forms of social organization that will allow ordinary citizens to have an impact on what really matters. Developing policy in these areas has engaged the efforts of a wide range of experts from a variety of fields. Whereas university-educated intellectuals once formed an intelligentsia, today they are engaged in practical politics and much more often function as agents who link social actors together than as mere elaborators of theories.

Do economists ‘compose’ economics? A comparison of the creative processes of artists and economists

This is a draft for a chapter of the book version of my Ph.D thesis. The chapter addresses the following question: Are the creative processes of musical composers and academic economists essentially the same, or are there significant differences? The paper finds that there are deep similarities between the creative processes of theoretical economists and the creative processes of artists. The chapter builds a process oriented lifecycle account of creative activity, drawing on testimonial material from the arts and the sciences, and relates the model to the creative work of economists developing economic theory.

The prospects for tobacco harm reduction

Tobacco harm reduction (THR) policies aim to reduce the prevalence of tobacco-related harm by encouraging smokers who are unable or unwilling to quit to adopt less harmful ways of obtaining nicotine, such as pharmaceutical nicotine and oral tobacco snuff. Proponents of THR argue that the effects of tobacco control policies have reduced smoking as much as they reasonably can and that we can best reduce tobacco-related harm by encouraging smokers to use these methods, which substantially reduce the health risks of smoking. Critics argue that THR policies will undermine the two traditional tobacco control goals of preventing the uptake of smoking by young people and encouraging smokers to quit. I assess the main arguments and evidence advanced for and against THR.

An unexpected role for visual feedback in vehicle steering control

Some motor tasks can be completed, quite literally, with our eyes shut. Most people can touch their nose without looking or reach for an object after only a brief glance at its location. This distinction leads to one of the defining questions of movement control: is information gleaned prior to starting the movement sufficient to complete the task (open loop), or is feedback about the progress of the movement required (closed loop)? One task that has commanded considerable interest in the literature over the years is that of steering a vehicle, in particular lane-correction and lane-changing tasks. Recent work has suggested that this type of task can proceed in a fundamentally open loop manner [1 and 2], with feedback mainly serving to correct minor, accumulating errors. This paper reevaluates the conclusions of these studies by conducting a new set of experiments in a driving simulator. We demonstrate that, in fact, drivers rely on regular visual feedback, even during the well-practiced steering task of lane changing. Without feedback, drivers fail to initiate the return phase of the maneuver, resulting in systematic errors in final heading. The results provide new insight into the control of vehicle heading, suggesting that drivers employ a simple policy of “turn and see,” with only limited understanding of the relationship between steering angle and vehicle heading.

Design, Science and Conceptual Analysis

Philosophers expend considerable effort on the analysis of concepts, but the value of such work is not widely appreciated. This paper principally analyses some arguments, beliefs, and presuppositions about the nature of design and the relations between design and science common in the literature to illustrate this point, and to contribute to the foundations of design theory.

Religious Information Poverty in Australian State Schools

This paper introduces the concept of religious information poverty in Australian state schools from an information science perspective. Information scientists have been theorising about the global information society for some time, along with its increased provision of vital information for the good of the world. Australian state schools see themselves as preparing children for effective participation in the information society, yet Australian children are currently suffering a religious illiteracy that undermines this goal. Some reasons and theories are offered to explain the existence of religious information poverty in state schools, and suggestions for professional stakeholders are offered for its alleviation.

Should the health community promote smokeless tobacco (snus) as a harm reduction measure?

Background to the debate: The tobacco control community is divided on whether or not to inform the public that using oral, smokeless tobacco (Swedish snus) is less hazardous to health than smoking tobacco. Proponents of 'harm reduction' point to the Swedish experience. Snus seems to be widely used as an alternative to cigarettes in Sweden, say these proponents, contributing to the low overall prevalence of smoking and smoking-related disease. Harm reduction proponents thus argue that the health community should actively inform inveterate cigarette smokers of the benefits of switching to snus. However, critics of harm reduction say that snus has its own risks, that no form of tobacco should ever be promoted, and that Sweden’s experience is likely to be specific to that culture and not transferable to other settings. Critics also remain deeply suspicious that the tobacco industry will use snus marketing as a 'gateway' to promote cigarettes. In the interests of promoting debate, the authors (who are collaborators on a research project on the future of tobacco control) have agreed to outline the strongest arguments for and against promoting Swedish snus as a form of harm reduction.

Language Planning and Policy: Recent Trends, Future Directions

A framework for and overview of the key elements of language planning is presented covering status planning, corpus planning, language-in-education planning, prestige planning and critical approaches to language planning. Within each of these areas, key articles outlining important recent directions are discussed indicating the field’s new found sense of vitality.

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability has seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of 6 case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.

Using household survey data to inform policy decisions regarding the delivery of evidence-based parenting interventions.

Background: This study used household survey data on the prevalence of child, parent and family variables to establish potential targets for a population-level intervention to strengthen parenting skills in the community. The goals of the intervention include decreasing child conduct problems, increasing parental self-efficacy, use of positive parenting strategies, decreasing coercive parenting and increasing help-seeking, social support and participation in positive parenting programmes. Methods: A total of 4010 parents with a child under the age of 12 years completed a statewide telephone survey on parenting. Results: One in three parents reported that their child had a behavioural or emotional problem in the previous 6 months. Furthermore, 9% of children aged 2–12 years meet criteria for oppositional defiant disorder. Parents who reported their child's behaviour to be difficult were more likely to perceive parenting as a negative experience (i.e. demanding, stressful and depressing). Parents with greatest difficulties were mothers without partners and who had low levels of confidence in their parenting roles. About 20% of parents reported being stressed and 5% reported being depressed in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. Parents with personal adjustment problems had lower levels of parenting confidence and their child was more difficult to manage. Only one in four parents had participated in a parent education programme. Conclusions: Implications for the setting of population-level goals and targets for strengthening parenting skills are discussed.