Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Work, risk and health: differences between immigrants and natives in Spain

We analyze the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a disability. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated to it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we use data from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives of the Spanish SS system. It contains individual, job and firm information of over a million workers, including a representative sample of immigrants. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability by 5.3%; temporary employment also influences health. Migrant status -with differences among regions of origin- significantly affects both disability and the probability of being employed in a risky occupation. Most groups of immigrants work in riskier jobs, but have lower probability of becoming disabled. Nevertheless, our theoretical hypothesis that disability and risk are jointly determined is not valid for immigrants: i.e. for them working conditions is not a matter of choice in terms of health.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

Health-risk behaviors and quality of life among young men.

PURPOSE: To examine the associations between substance use and other health-risk behaviors and quality of life (QOL) among young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5,306 young Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. Associations between seven distinct self-reported health-risk behaviors (risky single-occasion drinking; volume drinking; cigarette smoking; cannabis use; use of any other illicit drugs; sexual intercourse without a condom; low physical activity) were assessed via chi-square analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between each particular health-risk behavior and either physical or mental QOL (assessed with the SF-12v2) while adjusting for socio-demographic variables and the presence of all other health-risk behaviors. RESULTS: Most health-risk behaviors co-occurred. However, low physical activity was not or negatively related to other health-risk behaviors. Almost all health-risk behaviors were associated with a greater likelihood of compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom (not associated with both physical and mental QOL) and frequent risky single-occasion drinking (not related to mental QOL after adjusting for the presence of other health-risk behaviors; positively associated with physical QOL) differed from this pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Health-risk behaviors are mostly associated with compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom and frequent risky single-occasion drinking differ from this pattern and are therefore possibly particularly difficult to change relative to other health-risk behaviors.

The HBSC Ireland Trends Report 1998 - 2010

The HBSC is a cross-sectional study conducted in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe. It runs every 4 years and in 2010 there were 43 participating countries and regions collecting data on the health behaviours, health outcomes and contexts of children̢?Ts lives. The Irish survey has been carried out by the Health Promotion Research Centre, NUI Galway since 1998 and brings together all the data (relating to almost 40,000 Irish children) collected over this period to examine the key trends and patterns between 1998 and 2010. In terms of risky behaviour, the survey reports that in 2010 12% of Irish children said they were smoking compared to 21% in 1998. 28% reported that they had been drunk compared to 29% in 1998. 8% reported that they had used cannabis compared to 10% in 1998. In terms of positive behaviour, seat-belt wearing rates have doubled (82%) amongst children since 1998 and 33% reported that their health was excellent compared to 28% in 1998. High rates of life satisfaction (76%) and reported happiness (91%) continue. Click here to download The HBSC Ireland Trends Report 1998 Р2010 PDF 958KB

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Almost routine prophylactic cholecystectomy during laparoscopic gastric bypass is safe

Background Morbidly obese patients are at high risk to develop gallstones, and rapid weight loss after bariatric surgery further enhances this risk. The concept of prophylactic cholecystectomy during gastric bypass has been challenged recently because the risk may be lower than reported earlier and because cholecystectomy during laparoscopic gastric bypass may be more difficult and risky. <p>Methods A review of prospectively collected data on 772 patients who underwent laparoscopic primary gastric bypass between January 2000 and August 2007 was performed. The charts of patients operated before 2004 were retrospectively reviewed regarding preoperative echography and histopathological findings.</p> <p>Results Fifty-eight (7.5%) patients had had previous cholecystectomy. In the remaining patients, echography showed gallstones or sludge in 81 (11.3%). Cholecystectomy was performed at the time of gastric bypass in 665 patients (91.7%). Gallstones were found intraoperatively in 25 patients (3.9%), for a total prevalence of gallstones of 21.2%. The age of patients with gallstones was higher than that of gallstone-free patients (43.5 vs 38.7 years, p < 0.0001). Of the removed specimens, 81.8% showed abnormal histologic findings, mainly chronic cholecystitis and cholesterolosis. Cholecystectomy was associated with no procedure-related complication, prolonged duration of surgery by a mean of 19 min (4-45), and had no effect on the duration of hospital stay. Cholecystectomy was deemed too risky in 59 patients (8.3%) who were prescribed a 6-month course of ursodeoxycolic acid.</p> <p>Conclusion Concomitant cholecystectomy can be performed safely in most patients during laparoscopic gastric bypass and does not prolong hospital stay. As such, it is an acceptable form of prophylaxis against stones forming during rapid weight loss. Whether it is superior to chemical prophylaxis remains to be demonstrated in a large prospective randomized study.</p>

A Brief Cognitive Behavioural Therapy Alcohol Intervention Programme is an Effective Secondary Prevention Approach for New Employees entering an Irish Workforce: A Pilot

The prevalence of unhealthy drinking at all levels in Irish society poses serious issues in terms of the consequence to individuals concerned, as well as to society as a whole. The workplace offers a useful setting for early identification and intervention with new employees who may have pre-existing alcohol use disorder issues. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness within the workplace of a brief Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) intervention in reducing participants binge and risky drinking behaviours. Twenty-six Irish Naval recruits volunteered to participate in this randomised controlled trial. The intervention was conducted over four consecutive one and a half hour weekly sessions. Participants completed four principle outcome measures at intake, termination of the intervention and at the two-month follow-up assessment. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Babor, Higginis-Biddle, Saunders & Monterio, 2001) was used to measures participants’ consumption levels and frequency of binge or risky drinking. A Readiness Ruler (Miller, Zweben, Diclemente, & Rychtarik, 1992) was used to measure participants’ readiness to change drinking, while the Drinking Expectancy Questionnaire (Young & Oei, 1996) was used to measure participants’ beliefs pertaining to alcohol, and their ability to refuse alcohol in high-risk social surroundings. There were preliminary data in support of the intervention. There were interaction effects that approached statistical significance for both a reduction in participants’ binge drinking (p =. 064) and an increase in participants’ ability to refuse alcohol in high-risk social settings (p = .059). There was also a significant interaction effect (pThis resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

A Review of Harm Reduction Approaches in Ireland and Evidence from the International Literature

This report examines international literature on harm reduction and also presents primary research in health services in Ireland on approaches to harm reduction. The aim of harm reduction efforts is to minimise the risks stemming from shared use of drug-use paraphernalia, such as needle exchange programmes. One of the criticisms of Irish drug services is that the restricted opening hours and limited number of exchange services may contribute to continued sharing of needles among drug users. The report points out that other non-injecting paraphernalia such as spoons are also associated with the risk of contracting diseases, yet services do not as yet focus on them. The report notes that specific risk factors that contribute to risky drug practices include youth, a shorter injecting history, confinement to prison, homelessness and being involved in a sexual relationship with another intravenous drug user. The report suggests that harm reduction practices can be introduced into a prison population without a subsequent increase in drug consumption rates. The provision of consumption rooms and the prescription of heroin are also discussed, with the report noting that legislation would have to altered to implement these new strategies.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Division of labour influences the rate of ageing in weaver ant workers.

The evolutionary theory of ageing predicts that the timing of senescence has been primarily shaped by the extrinsic mortality rate, which causes selection intensity to decline over time. One difficulty in testing the evolutionary theory of ageing is that extrinsic mortality risk is often confounded with body size and fecundity, which may also directly affect lifespan. Social insects with a pronounced division of labour between worker castes provide a unique opportunity to study the direct effect of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of ageing rates independently of body size, reproductive effort and genetic configuration. In the weaver ant, Oecophylla smaragdina, the major (large) workers perform the risky tasks outside the nest, while the minor (small) workers stay within the highly protected arboreal nest. Hence, this pronounced division of labour is associated with high differences in extrinsic mortality risks. The evolutionary theory of ageing predicts that the minor workers should have a longer intrinsic lifespan than the major workers. In line with this prediction, we found that in a protected environment the minor workers lived significantly longer than the major workers did. Hence, the ageing rate appears to have been moulded by variation in the extrinsic mortality rate independently of size, reproductive effort and genetic configuration.

L'effectivité des Conventions anti-corruption internationales : vers une Cour pénale internationale en criminalité économique pour punir le vol d'Etat

This doctoral thesis proposes an International Criminal Court Specialized in Economic Crime (ICC/EC) as a solution to the main obstacles to the effectiveness of international anti-corruption conventions studied. In fact, the dispute settlement systems of the international anti-corruption Conventions do not provide sufficient guarantees of effectiveness, and offenses and crimes of corruption are not under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) derived from the Rome Statute of 2000. In a first part, this work analyzes seven international anti-corruption Conventions adopted between 1996 and 2003, respectively, by the Organization of American States (OAS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the European Union (EU), the Council of Europe (CoE), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN). In a second part, this study highlights a deficit of rationalization and optimization of offenses included in the conventions: an incomplete criminalization of legal persons for corruption, an equally insufficient criminalization for corruption of political leaders benefiting both from criminal and civil immunities, as well as the limited outcome of international asset recovery de-rived from corruption. Finally, given the previous analysis made, this thesis concludes with a pro-posal for an independent ICC/EC specific to economic crimes in order to overcome the major obstacles highlighted and which strongly affect the effectiveness of the international anti-corruption conventions. - Cet ouvrage de thèse doctorale propose, comme solution principale aux obstacles à l'effectivité des Conventions anti-corruption internationales étudiées, une Cour Pénale Internationale Spécialisée en Criminalité Economique (CPI/CE). En effet, les systèmes de règlement des différends des Conven¬tions anti-corruption internationales n'offrent pas suffisamment de gage d'effectivité et les délits et crimes de corruption transnationale ne sont pas de la compétence de la Cour Pénale Internationale (CPI) issue du statut de Rome de 2000. Dans un premier temps, le présent ouvrage analyse sept Conventions anti-corruption internationales adoptées entre 1996 et 2003, respectivement, par l'Organisation des Etats Américains (OEA), l'Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (OCDE), l'Union européenne (UE), le Conseil de l'Europe (CoE), l'Union Africaine (UA) et l'Organisation des Nations Unies (ONU). Dans un deuxième temps, l'ouvrage met en lumière un déficit de rationalisation et d'optimisation des incriminations que contiennent les Conventions, dont notamment : une incrimination lacunaire des personnes morales pour corruption, une incrimination tout aussi insuffisante pour corruption des dirigeants politiques au bénéfice d'immunités pénale et civile et une restitu¬tion internationale des avoirs issus de la corruption à portée limitée. Finalement, c'est au vu de l'analyse effectuée que le présent ouvrage conclut avec la proposition d'une CPI/CE indépendante et spécifique aux crimes économiques afin de pallier au mieux les obstacles majeurs mis en exergue et qui nuisent fortement à l'effectivité des Conventions anti-corruption internationales.

Peer pressure and alcohol use in young men: a mediation analysis of drinking motives.

BACKGROUND: Peer pressure (PP) has been shown to play a major role in the development and continuation of alcohol use and misuse. To date, almost all the studies investigating the association of PP with alcohol use only considered the PP for misconduct but largely ignored other aspects of PP, such as pressure for peer involvement and peer conformity. Moreover, it is not clear whether the association of PP with alcohol use is direct or mediated by other factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association of different aspects of peer pressure (PP) with drinking volume (DV) and risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD), and to explore whether these associations were mediated by drinking motives (DM). METHODS: A representative sample of 5521 young Swiss men, aged around 20 years old, completed a questionnaire assessing their usual weekly DV, the frequency of RSOD, DM (i.e. enhancement, social, coping, and conformity motives), and 3 aspects of PP (i.e. misconduct, peer involvement, and peer conformity). Associations between PP and alcohol outcomes (DV and RSOD) as well as the mediation of DM were tested using structural equation models. RESULTS: Peer pressure to misconduct was associated with more alcohol use, whereas peer involvement and peer conformity were associated with less alcohol use. Associations of drinking outcomes with PP to misconduct and peer involvement were partially mediated by enhancement and coping motives, while the association with peer conformity was partially mediated by enhancement and conformity motives. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that PP to misconduct constitutes a risk factor, while peer conformity and peer involvement reflect protective factors with regard to alcohol use. Moreover, results from the mediation analyses suggest that part of the association of PP with alcohol use came indirectly through DM: PP was associated with DM, which in turn were associated with alcohol use.

Gestió del coneixement aplicada a projectes informàtics

Avui dia el coneixement s'ha convertit en l'actiu més valuós de qualsevol organització, i la gestió d'aquest actiu, en una necessitat. La competitivitat de les empreses i, per tant, la seva supervivència depenen, en gran manera, del fet que aquest coneixement es pugui preservar i emprar eficientment. Quantes vegades hem perdut el temps innecessàriament cercant documents que nosaltres mateixos hem guardat en algun lloc i que no sabem trobar, o hem desaprofitat la informació d'altres perquè no sabem que existeix, o hem hagut de demanar informació a altres persones perquè nosaltres no la tenim a la nostra disposició o no sabem com trobar-la. Tot això i molt més pot quedar resolt amb una bona gestió del coneixement. Si haguéssim de definir què és la gestió del coneixement, podríem dir que és tot el conjunt d'activitats que tenen com a finalitat fer servir, compartir i desenvolupar els coneixements d'una organització i de les persones que hi treballen per a aconseguir una millora en els seus objectius, ser més precisos en la presa de decisions i poder donar una resposta més ràpida a les necessitats del mercat. Però implantar la gestió del coneixement en una empresa no és una tasca fàcil ni immediata. A banda de comportar un canvi organitzatiu important, cal que hi hagi un suport tecnològic, cosa que implica definir uns processos, abans inexistents i que ara han de ser aplicats i veure com s'integra en el funcionament de l'activitat diària de l'empresa, en aquest cas, el desenvolupament de projectes informàtics.

Vertébroplastie par voie percutanée [Percutaneous vertebroplasty]

Although vertebroplasty was initially a treatment of vertebral haemangioma or metastases, this procedure is now frequent option to the treatment of osteoporotic vertebral fractures. In this review article, we will discuss the indication, the techniques and the follow-up of the vertebroplasty. This is a risky procedure, which should be performed by experimented physicians working with high-resolution fluoroscopic equipments, by biplane fluoroscopy, to reduce the risk and irradiation to the patient. According to the available follow-up studies, there is clear evidence of a strong improvement of quality of life after vertebroplasty by rapid decreasing of back pain at least during the first six months. Other new studies will analyze the long-term follow-up after vertebroplasty.