Game-­theoretic Resource Allocation with Real-­time Probabilistic Surveillance Information

Game-theoretic security resource allocation problems have generated significant interest in the area of designing and developing security systems. These approaches traditionally utilize the Stackelberg game model for security resource scheduling in order to improve the protection of critical assets. The basic assumption in Stackelberg games is that a defender will act first, then an attacker will choose their best response after observing the defender’s strategy commitment (e.g., protecting a specific asset). Thus, it requires an attacker’s full or partial observation of a defender’s strategy. This assumption is unrealistic in real-time threat recognition and prevention. In this paper, we propose a new solution concept (i.e., a method to predict how a game will be played) for deriving the defender’s optimal strategy based on the principle of acceptable costs of minimax regret. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantages of this solution concept by analyzing its properties.

The incentives of a resource owner: Evidence from a private oyster fishery

European flat oyster Ostrea edulis fisheries were once abundant around the UK coastline. The sole remaining productive O. edulis fishery in Scotland is in Loch Ryan. This fishery has been privately owned and managed by a single family since 1701. Economic theory predicts that ownership, whether public or private, is a necessary condition for rational fishery management. In this paper, a series of four leases and a licence are examined, covering an 85-year period over the 20th and 21st century, to examine whether the management of the Loch Ryan fishery conforms to the expected norms of rational management. The leases show that, over this period, the owners appear more willing to expend resources on regulating tenant behaviour, supporting the conclusion that successive generations of owners developed an evolving sense of what "rational management" might require. The results of this study could inform the management of other fisheries - both public and private - by emphasising the importance of learning from experience.

Predicting the crushing behaviour of composite material using high-fidelity finite element modelling

The capability to numerically model the crushing behaviour of composite structures will enable the efficient design of structures with high specific energy absorption capacity. This is particularly relevant to the aerospace and automotive industries where cabin structures need to be shown to be crashworthy. In this paper, a three-dimensional damage model is presented, which accurately represents the behaviour of composite laminates under crush loading. Both intralaminar and interlaminar failure mechanisms are taken into account. The crush damage model was implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit as a VUMAT subroutine. Numerical predictions are shown to agree well with experimental results, accurately capturing the intralaminar and interlaminar damage for a range of stacking sequences, triggers and composite materials. The use of measured material parameters required by the numerical models, without the need to ‘calibrate’ this input data, demonstrates this computational tool's predictive capabilities

Low Fidelity Simulation as a Mechanism to Enhance Midwifery Students’ Confidence in Relation to Emergency Obstetric Training

Simulation offers a safe opportunity for students to practice clinical procedures without exposure and risk of harm to real patients (Partin et al, 2011). Simulation is recognised to increase students’ confidence in their ability to make critical decisions (McCaughey and Traynor, 2010). Within Queen’s University Belfast, simulation for obstetric emergency training based on the ethos of ‘Practical Obstetric Multi-Professional Training[PROMPT]’ (Draycott et al, 2008) has been developed for midwifery students and is now uniquely embedded within the pre-registration curriculum. An important aspect of the PROMPT training is the use of low fidelity simulation as opposed to high tech support (Crofts et al, 2008). Studies have reflected that low fidelity simulation can be an effective tool for promoting student confidence (Tosterud, 2013; Hughes et al, 2013). Students are given the opportunity to experience obstetric emergencies within a safe environment and evaluation has indicated that students feel safe and have an increase in confidence and self-efficacy. The immediacy of the feedback offered by simulated situations encourages an exploration of beliefs and attitudes, particularly with peers, promoting a deeper sense of learning (Stoneham and Feltham, 2009).This paper will discuss why low fidelity simulation can effectively enhance the student experience and promote self-efficacy.

Super suburbia: developing resilience by closing resource cycles in North Belfast

Sustainability can be described as having three interlinked strands, known as the ‘trias energetica’, without which resilience is difficult to achieve. These strands are environmental, social and economic: and if taken as indicators, the suburbs of North Belfast are very poorly performing indeed. Places such as Ligoneal and Glen Cairn have poor housing stock energetically, and also little economic activity. This paper describes propositional work completed by Queens University and Belfast City Council as part of the UK’s Technology Strategy Board’s Future Cities Programme, which aimed to develop new synergies in these neighbourhoods by the insertion of closed cycle economies.

By utilising a research by design methodology, the paper develops a process-based and phased design to develop a new emergent form to these neighbourhoods, one in which new productive systems are embedded into the city, at a small-scales. These include a peak-load hydro-electric project in Ligoneal; a productive landscape in Glen Cairn and a city-wide energy refurbishment utilising neighbourhood waste streams.

These designs allow for a roadmap for development to be created that could change the modus operandi of an area over a relatively short period of time, and show that even modest investments of productive technologies at a local scale could fundamentally change the form and the economic and environmental operation of the city in the future, and create a new resilient city, one that can be less externally dependent and more socially just.

New suburbia: designing in urban resilience by closing resource cycles

By utilising a research by design methodology, the paper develops a process-based and phased design to develop a new emergent form to these neighbourhoods, one in which new productive systems are embedded into the city, at a small-scales. These include a peak-load hydro-electric project in Ligoneal; a productive landscape in Glen Cairn and a city-wide energy refurbishment utilising neighbourhood waste streams.

The three projects illustrate different ways in which place-based solutions can enact urban transformation through a process of rigorous visualisation of process, and its attendant changes in content and form of the neighbourhood, These designs, based around a process-based strategy plan, allow for a roadmap for development to be created that could change the modus operandi of an area over a relatively short period of time,. The paper demonstrates that even modest investments of productive technologies at a local scale can fundamentally change the form and the economic and environmental operation of the city in the future, and create a new resilient city, one that can have resilience built-in. This resilience allows the neighbourhood to be less externally dependent on resources, economically active and more socially just.

Forecasting invasions: resource use by mussels informs invasion patterns along the South African coast

Invasive species are often more able to rapidly and efficiently utilise resources than natives, and comparing per capita resource use at different resource densities among invaders and trophically analogous natives could allow for reliable predictions of invasiveness. In South Africa, invasion by the Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis has transformed wave-exposed shores, negatively affecting native mussel species. Currently, South Africa is experiencing a second mussel invasion with the recent detection of the South American Semimytilus algosus. We tested per capita uptake of an algal resource by invading M. galloprovincialis, S. algosus, and the native Aulacomya atra at different algal concentrations and temperatures, representing the west and south coasts of South Africa, to examine whether their per capita resource use could be a predictor of their spread and subsequent invasiveness. Regardless of temperature, M. galloprovincialis was the most efficient consumer, significantly reducing algal cells compared to the other species when the resource was presented in both low and high starting densities. Furthermore, these findings aligned with a greater biomass of M. galloprovincialis on the shore in comparison with the other species. Resource use by the new invader S. algosus was dependent on the density of resource and, although this species was efficient at low algal concentrations at cooler temperatures, this pattern broke down at higher algal densities. This was once more reflected in lower biomass in surveys of this species along the cool west coast. We therefore forecast that S. algosus will be become established along the south coast; however, we also predict that M. galloprovincialis will maintain dominance on these shores.

Using low fidelity simulation in interactive workshops for undergraduate medical and midwifery students

There is recognition of the need to continuously improve inter-professional relationships within clinical practice. Mutual respect, effective communication and working together are factors which will contribute to higher standards of care (Miers et al, 2005; Begley, 2008). An inter-professional education initiative, using low-fidelity simulation has been piloted and subsequently embedded within a pre-registration midwifery curriculum. The aim of the collaboration is to enhance inter-professional learning by providing an opportunity for final year midwifery students and 4th year medical students within a non-threatening environment to interact and communicate prior to obstetric clinical placements. The midwifery students are provided with an outline agenda for the workshop, but are encouraged to use creative license with regard to workshop delivery. Preliminary evaluations have been positive from both midwifery and medical students. The teaching sessions have provided an opportunity to learn about and respect each other’s roles. The midwifery students have commented on the enjoyable aspects of team working during preparation and the confidence gained from teaching medical students. The medical students felt that the sessions lowered their anxiety levels going into the labour setting. This workshop will demonstrate how low-fidelity simulation can effectively enhance the students experience promoting team working and self-confidence.

Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.