An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure

We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms.

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

Cognitive reserve is associated with the functional organization of brain networks in healthy aging: a MEG study

The proportion of elderly people in the population has increased rapidly in the last century and consequently "healthy aging" is expected to become a critical area of research in neuroscience. Evidence reveals how healthy aging depends on three main behavioral factors: social lifestyle, cognitive activity and physical activity. In this study, we focused on the role of cognitive activity, concentrating specifically on educational and occupational attainment factors, which were considered two of the main pillars of cognitive reserve. 21 subjects with similar rates of social lifestyle, physical and cognitive activity were selected from a sample of 55 healthy adults. These subjects were divided into two groups according to their level of cognitive reserve; one group comprised subjects with high cognitive reserve (9 members) and the other contained those with low cognitive reserve (12 members). To evaluate the cortical brain connectivity network, all participants were recorded by Magnetoencephalography (MEG) while they performed a memory task (modified version of the Sternberg¿s Task). We then applied two algorithms (Phase Locking Value & Phase-Lag Index) to study the dynamics of functional connectivity. In response to the same task, the subjects with lower cognitive reserve presented higher functional connectivity than those with higher cognitive reserve. These results may indicate that participants with low cognitive reserve needed a greater 'effort' than those with high cognitive reserve to achieve the same level of cognitive performance. Therefore, we conclude that cognitive reserve contributes to the modulation of the functional connectivity patterns of the aging brain.

Genes encoding beta-mannanases in Brachypodium distachyon seeds have a role not only in cell wall softening upon germination sensu stricto but also during post-germinative reserve mobilization

En la coleorriza en semillas de Brachypodium son abundantes los mananos y estos van desapareciendo conforme progresa la germinación (entre 12-27 h), al mismo tiempo se observa un pico de actividad endo-beta-mananasa. Se ha establecido que de los 6 miembros de la familia MAN en B. distachyon 3 se expresan en el embrión en germinación y BdMAN3 también es abundante en la aleurona.

Service Capacity Reserve under Uncertainty by Hospital’s ER Analogies: A Practical Model for Car Services

We define a capacity reserve model to dimension passenger car service installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced by using hospital?s emergency room analogies. Usually, service facilities are designed applying empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the original estimations, and there is a gap between customer?s real demand and the service?s capacity. Our research establishes a valid methodology and covers the absence of recent researches and the lack of statistical techniques implementation, integrating demand uncertainty in a unique model built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, queuing theory, and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Our model has proved to be a useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty integrating the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand and defining a set of new process indicators, such us capacity, occupancy, and cost of capacity reserve never studied before. The new indicators are intended to optimize the service operation. This set of new indicators could be implemented in the information systems used in the passenger car services.

Service capacity reserve under uncertainty by hospital's ER's analogies: a practical model for car services

El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en definir un modelo de reserva de capacidad, por analogías con emergencias hospitalarias, que pueda ser implementado en el sector de servicios. Este está específicamente enfocado a su aplicación en talleres de servicio de automóviles. Nuestra investigación incorpora la incertidumbre de la demanda en un modelo singular diseñado en etapas que agrupa técnicas ARIMA, teoría de colas y simulación Monte Carlo para definir los conceptos de capacidad y ocupación de servicio, que serán utilizados para minimizar el coste implícito de la reserva capacidad necesaria para atender a clientes que carecen de cita previa. Habitualmente, las compañías automovilísticas estiman la capacidad de sus instalaciones de servicio empíricamente, pero los clientes pueden llegar bajo condiciones de incertidumbre que no se tienen en cuenta en dichas estimaciones, por lo que existe una diferencia entre lo que el cliente realmente demanda y la capacidad que ofrece el servicio. Nuestro enfoque define una metodología válida para el sector automovilístico que cubre la ausencia genérica de investigaciones recientes y la habitual falta de aplicación de técnicas estadísticas en el sector. La equivalencia con la gestión de urgencias hospitalarias se ha validado a lo largo de la investigación en la se definen nuevos indicadores de proceso (KPIs) Tal y como hacen los hospitales, aplicamos modelos estocásticos para dimensionar las instalaciones de servicio de acuerdo con la distribución demográfica del área de influencia. El modelo final propuesto integra la predicción del coste implícito en la reserva de capacidad para atender la demanda no prevista. Asimismo, se ha desarrollado un código en Matlab que puede integrarse como un módulo adicional a los sistemas de información (DMS) que se usan actualmente en el sector, con el fin de emplear los nuevos indicadores de proceso definidos en el modelo. Los resultados principales del modelo son nuevos indicadores de servicio, tales como la capacidad, ocupación y coste de reserva de capacidad, que nunca antes han sido objeto de estudio en la industria automovilística, y que están orientados a gestionar la operativa del servicio. ABSTRACT Our aim is to define a Capacity Reserve model to be implemented in the service sector by hospital's emergency room (ER) analogies, with a practical approach to passenger car services. A stochastic model has been implemented using R and a Monte Carlo simulation code written in Matlab and has proved a very useful tool for optimal decision making under uncertainty. The research integrates demand uncertainty in a unique model which is built in stages by implementing ARIMA forecasting, Queuing Theory and a Monte Carlo simulation to define the concepts of service capacity and occupancy, minimizing the implicit cost of the capacity that must be reserved to service unexpected customers. Usually, passenger car companies estimate their service facilities capacity using empirical methods, but customers arrive under uncertain conditions not included in the estimations. Thus, there is a gap between customer’s real demand and the dealer’s capacity. This research sets a valid methodology for the passenger car industry to cover the generic absence of recent researches and the generic lack of statistical techniques implementation. The hospital’s emergency room (ER) equalization has been confirmed to be valid for the passenger car industry and new process indicators have been defined to support the study. As hospitals do, we aim to apply stochastic models to dimension installations according to the demographic distribution of the area to be serviced. The proposed model integrates the prediction of the cost implicit in the reserve capacity to serve unexpected demand. The Matlab code could be implemented as part of the existing information technology systems (ITs) to support the existing service management tools, creating a set of new process indicators. Main model outputs are new indicators, such us Capacity, Occupancy and Cost of Capacity Reserve, never studied in the passenger car service industry before, and intended to manage the service operation.

Hacia una arquitectura de procesos : transformaciones disciplinares a través de la Computación en los modelos de Alexander, Negroponte y Price

La premisa inicial de la tesis examina cómo las secuelas de Segunda Guerra mundial motivaron una revisión general de la Ciencia y procuraron una nueva relación entre el hombre y su entorno. Matemáticas, Física y Biología gestaron las Ciencias de la Computación como disciplina de convergencia. En un momento de re-definición del objeto científico, una serie de arquitectos vislumbraron la oportunidad para transformar ciertas convenciones disciplinares. Mediante la incorporación de ontologías y procedimientos de cibernética y computación, trazaron un nuevo espacio arquitectónico. Legitimados por un despegue tecnológico incuestionable, desafían los límites de la profesión explorando campos abiertos a nuevos programas y acciones; amplían el dominio natural de la Arquitectura más allá del objeto(terminado) hacia el proceso(abierto). Se da inicio a la tesis describiendo los antecedentes que conducen a ese escenario de cambio. Se anotan aspectos de Teoría de Sistemas, Computación, Biología y de ciertos referentes de Arquitectura con relevancia para esa nuevo planteamiento. En esos antecedentes residen los argumentos para orientar la disciplina hacia el trabajo con procesos. La linea argumental central del texto aborda la obra de Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte y Cedric Price a través de una producción teórica y práctica transformada por la computación, y examina la contribución conceptual de cada autor. El análisis comparado de sus modelos se dispone mediante la disección de tres conceptos convergentes: Sistema, Código y Proceso. La discusión crítica se articula por una triangulación entre los autores, donde se identifican comparando por pares las coincidencias y controversias entre ellos. Sirve este procedimiento al propósito de tender un puente conceptual con el escenario arquitectónico actual estimando el impacto de sus propuestas. Se valora su contribución en la deriva del programa cerrado a la especulación , de lo formal a lo informal, de lo único a lo múltiple; del estudio de arquitectura al laboratorio de investigación. Para guiar ese recorrido por la significación de cada autor en el desarrollo digital de la disciplina, se incorporan a la escena dos predicados esenciales; expertos en computación que trabajaron de enlace entre los autores, matizando el significado de sus modelos. El trabajo de Gordon Pask y John Frazer constituye el vehículo de transmisión de los hallazgos de aquellos años, prolonga los caminos iniciados entonces, en la arquitectura de hoy y la que ya se está diseñando para mañana. ABSTRACT The initial premise of the thesis examines how the aftermath of second world war motivated a general revision of science and procure the basis of a new relation between mankind and its environment. Mathematics, Physics, and Biology gave birth to the Computer Sciences as a blend of different knowledge and procedures. In a time when the object of major sciences was being redefined, a few architects saw a promising opportunity for transforming the Architectural convention. By implementing the concepts, ontology and procedures of Cybernetics, Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, they envisioned a new space for their discipline. In the verge of transgression three prescient architects proposed complete architectural systems through their writings and projects; New systems that challenged the profession exploring open fields through program and action, questioning the culture of conservatism; They shifted architectural endeavor from object to process. The thesis starts describing the scientific and architectural background that lead to that opportunity, annotating aspects of Systems Theory, Computing, Biology and previous Architecture form the process perspective. It then focuses on the Works of Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte and Cedric Price through their work, and examines each authors conceptual contribution. It proceeds to a critical analysis of their proposals on three key converging aspects: system, architectural encoding and process. Finally, the thesis provides a comparative discussion between the three authors, and unfolds the impact of their work in todays architectural scenario. Their contribution to shift from service to speculation, from formal to informal , from unitary to multiple; from orthodox architecture studio to open laboratories of praxis through research. In order to conclude that triangle of concepts, other contributions come into scene to provide relevant predicates and complete those models. A reference to Gordon Pask and John Frazer is then provided with particular interest in their role as link between those pioneers and todays perspective, pushing the boundaries of both what architecture was and what it could become.

Experimentación radical italiana en torno al night-club. Warhol-MacLuhan-Price y la arquitectura eléctrica de los años 60.

La segunda mitad de los años 60, ese convulso periodo generador de experiencias largamente revisitadas, es testigo también de un curioso fenómeno en Italia que, vinculado al auge de los locales nocturnos en Estados Unidos y a un intenso clima de emancipación social, utiliza estos nuevos “palacios de la diversión” como fuente de inspiración ideológica al ser percibidos entre los jóvenes arquitectos y diseñadores radicales italianos como un laboratorio experimental estilístico y funcional capaz de generar modelos para un nuevo orden social ligado al entretenimiento. La intensidad productiva de estos años da como resultado multitud de propuestas donde la arqui­tectura actúa como catalizadora de una pulsión social que mezcla en el mismo espa­cio la vanguardia cultural y experimental más radical con el fenómeno de masas de la sociedad del espectáculo, permitiendo a la industria del placer ocupar sin complejos una posición clave en el discurso de una nueva generación que traslada intenciona­damente su interés desde la forma construida a la producción de ambientes artificia­les, electrónicamente amplificados, demostrando al mismo tiempo su compromiso con las formas y la lógica de las nuevas tecnologías.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Fluxes of Reserve-Derived and Currently Assimilated Carbon and Nitrogen in Perennial Ryegrass Recovering from Defoliation. The Regrowing Tiller and Its Component Functionally Distinct Zones1

The quantitative significance of reserves and current assimilates in regrowing tillers of severely defoliated plants of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) was assessed by a new approach, comprising 13C/12C and 15N/14N steady-state labeling and separation of sink and source zones. The functionally distinct zones showed large differences in the kinetics of currently assimilated C and N. These are interpreted in terms of ”substrate” and ”tissue” flux among zones and C and N turnover within zones. Tillers refoliated rapidly, although C and N supply was initially decreased. Rapid refoliation was associated with (a) transient depletion of water-soluble carbohydrates and dilution of structural biomass in the immature zone of expanding leaves, (b) rapid transition to current assimilation-derived growth, and (c) rapid reestablishment of a balanced C:N ratio in growth substrate. This balance (C:N, approximately 8.9 [w/w] in new biomass) indicated coregulation of growth by C and N supply and resulted from complementary fluxes of reserve- and current assimilation-derived C and N. Reserves were the dominant N source until approximately 3 d after defoliation. Amino-C constituted approximately 60% of the net influx of reserve C during the first 2 d. Carbohydrate reserves were an insignificant source of C for tiller growth after d 1. We discuss the physiological mechanisms contributing to defoliation tolerance.

Nitric oxide inhibits creatine kinase and regulates rat heart contractile reserve.

Cardiac myocytes express both constitutive and cytokine-inducible nitric oxide syntheses (NOS). NO and its congeners have been implicated in the regulation of cardiac contractile function. To determine whether NO could affect myocardial energetics, 31P NMR spectroscopy was used to evaluate high-energy phosphate metabolism in isolated rat hearts perfused with the NO donor S-nitrosoacetylcysteine (SNAC). All hearts were exposed to an initial high Ca2+ (3.5 mM) challenge followed by a recovery period, and then, either in the presence or absence of SNAC, to a second high Ca2+ challenge. This protocol allowed us to monitor simultaneously the effect of SNAC infusion on both contractile reserve (i.e., baseline versus high workload contractile function) and high-energy phosphate metabolism. The initial high Ca2+ challenge caused the rate-pressure product to increase by 74 +/- 5% in all hearts. As expected, ATP was maintained as phosphocreatine (PCr) content briefly dropped and then returned to baseline during the subsequent recovery period. Control hearts responded similarLy to the second high Ca2+ challenge, but SNAC-treated hearts did not demonstrate the expected increase in rate-pressure product. In these hearts, ATP declined significantly during the second high Ca2+ challenge, whereas phosphocreatine did not differ from controls, suggesting that phosphoryl transfer by creatine kinase (CK) was inhibited. CK activity, measured biochemically, was decreased by 61 +/- 13% in SNAC-treated hearts compared to controls. Purified CK in solution was also inhibited by SNAC, and reversal could be accomplished with DTT, a sulfhydryl reducing agent. Thus, NO can regulate contractile reserve, possibly by reversible nitrosothiol modification of CK.

Services Evolution of Two Groundwater Dependent Wetland Ecosystems in the “Mancha Húmeda” Biosphere Reserve (Spain)

A wetland that does not comply with the ecological standards of EU Directive 2000/60/EC cannot properly provide its services. This paper presents a review of the criteria for wetland assessment based on the Spanish experience in two specific Ramsar areas: the Tablas de Daimiel and the Ruidera Lakes. The aim of this article is to consider and promote a holistic awareness of the hydrological cycle and of the wetland area ecosystems within it. The methodology developed under the umbrella of the UNESCO project IGCP 604 is applied to describe the groundwater-wetland-human interrelationship. This methodology was chosen for two reasons: (a) it is designed to assess the services the wetlands provide; (b) it focuses on groundwater dependent wetlands such as the two cases presented here. In each case, although to a different extent, agricultural activities and water management have led to important changes in the services provided by the two ecosystems.