Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

Estimating and Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates:US and Colombia Analysis

In this paper we use the most representative models that exist in the literature on term structure of interest rates. In particular, we explore affine one factor models and polynomial-type approximations such as Nelson and Siegel. Our empirical application considers monthly data of USA and Colombia for estimation and forecasting. We find that affine models do not provide adequate performance either in-sample or out-of-sample. On the contrary, parsimonious models such as Nelson and Siegel have adequate results in-sample, however out-of-sample they are not able to systematically improve upon random walk base forecast.

Newborn hearing screening: A retrospective analysis of hit and false positive rates in the NICU and how they are influenced by risk factors for hearing loss in a suburban birthing hospital

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a hearing screening program, particularly focusing on hit and false positive rates in the NICU and WBN at a top-rated birthing hospital in Saint Louis, MO. Additionally, the study examined how these rates may be influenced by risk factors for hearing loss.

An analysis of the effect of audiologic management on a newborn hearing screening program's refer and loss to follow-up rates

This study includes an exhaustive review of the literature related to universal newborn hearing screening and loss to follow-up. It examines refer and follow-up rates in Missouri and highlights three successful newborn hearing screening programs under the same audiologic management.

Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%? CEPS Policy Brief No. 279, 27 July 2012

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.

Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.