Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?

We consider forecasting with factors, variables and both, modeling in-sample using Autometrics so all principal components and variables can be included jointly, while tackling multiple breaks by impulse-indicator saturation. A forecast-error taxonomy for factor models highlights the impacts of location shifts on forecast-error biases. Forecasting US GDP over 1-, 4- and 8-step horizons using the dataset from Stock and Watson (2009) updated to 2011:2 shows factor models are more useful for nowcasting or short-term forecasting, but their relative performance declines as the forecast horizon increases. Forecasts for GDP levels highlight the need for robust strategies, such as intercept corrections or differencing, when location shifts occur as in the recent financial crisis.

Rapid Keck Spectroscopy of Cataclysmic Variables

We present an analysis of Rapid Keck Spectroscopy of the CVs AM Her (polar) and SS Cyg (dwarf nova). We decompose the spectra into constant and variable components and identify different types of variability in AM Her with different characteristic timescales. The variable flickering component of the accretion disc flux and the observational characteristics of a small flare in SS Cyg are isolated.

The ESA climate change initiative: satellite data records for essential climate variables

Observations of Earth from space have been made for over 40 years and have contributed to advances in many aspects of climate science. However, attempts to exploit this wealth of data are often hampered by a lack of homogeneity and continuity and by insufficient understanding of the products and their uncertainties. There is, therefore, a need to reassess and reprocess satellite datasets to maximize their usefulness for climate science. The European Space Agency has responded to this need by establishing the Climate Change Initiative (CCI). The CCI will create new climate data records for (currently) 13 essential climate variables (ECVs) and make these open and easily accessible to all. Each ECV project works closely with users to produce time series from the available satellite observations relevant to users' needs. A climate modeling users' group provides a climate system perspective and a forum to bring the data and modeling communities together. This paper presents the CCI program. It outlines its benefit and presents approaches and challenges for each ECV project, covering clouds, aerosols, ozone, greenhouse gases, sea surface temperature, ocean color, sea level, sea ice, land cover, fire, glaciers, soil moisture, and ice sheets. It also discusses how the CCI approach may contribute to defining and shaping future developments in Earth observation for climate science.

Evaluation of milk compositional variables on coagulation properties using partial least squares

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of numerous milk compositional factors on milk coagulation properties using Partial Least Squares (PLS). Milk from herds of Jersey and Holstein-Friesian cattle was collected across the year and blended (n=55), to maximize variation in composition and coagulation. The milk was analysed for casein, protein, fat, titratable acidity, lactose, Ca2+, urea content, micelles size, fat globule size, somatic cell count and pH. Milk coagulation properties were defined as coagulation time, curd firmness and curd firmness rate measured by a controlled strain rheometer. The models derived from PLS had higher predictive power than previous models demonstrating the value of measuring more milk components. In addition to the well-established relationships with casein and protein levels, CMS and fat globule size were found to have as strong impact on all of the three models. The study also found a positive impact of fat on milk coagulation properties and a strong relationship between lactose and curd firmness, and urea and curd firmness rate, all of which warrant further investigation due to current lack of knowledge of the underlying mechanism. These findings demonstrate the importance of using a wider range of milk compositional variable for the prediction of the milk coagulation properties, and hence as indicators of milk suitability for cheese making.

Reflexive stasis, scale reversal and the myth of modern cinema

This chapter looks at three films whose Portuguese urban settings offer a privileged ground for the re-evaluation of the classical-modern-postmodern categorisation with regard to cinema. They are The State of Things (Wim Wenders, 1982), Foreign Land (Walter Salles and Daniela Thomas, 1995) and Mysteries of Lisbon (Raúl Ruiz, 2010). In them, the city is the place where characters lose their bearings, names, identities, and where vicious circles, mirrors, replicas and mise-en-abyme bring the vertiginous movement that had characterised the modernist city of 1920s cinema to a halt. Curiously, too, it is the place where so-called postmodern aesthetics finally finds an ideal home in self-ironical tales that expose the film medium’s narrative shortcomings. Intermedial devices, whether Polaroid stills or a cardboard cut-out theatre, are then resorted to in order to turn a larger-than-life reality into framed, manageable narrative miniatures. The scaled-down real, however, turns out to be a disappointing simulacrum, a memory ersatz that unveils the illusory character of cosmopolitan teleology. In my approach, I start by examining the intertwined and transnational genesis of these films that resulted in three correlated visions of the end of history and of storytelling, typical of postmodern aesthetics. I move on to consider intermedia miniaturism as an attempt to stop time within movement, an equation that inevitably brings to mind the Deleuzian movement-time binary, which I revisit in an attempt to disentangle it from the classical-modern opposition. I conclude by proposing reflexive stasis and scale reversal as the common denominator across all modern projects, hence, perhaps, a more advantageous model than modernity to signify artistic and political values.

Automated identification of neural correlates of continuous variables

Background: The electroencephalogram (EEG) may be described by a large number of different feature types and automated feature selection methods are needed in order to reliably identify features which correlate with continuous independent variables. New method: A method is presented for the automated identification of features that differentiate two or more groups inneurologicaldatasets basedupona spectraldecompositionofthe feature set. Furthermore, the method is able to identify features that relate to continuous independent variables. Results: The proposed method is first evaluated on synthetic EEG datasets and observed to reliably identify the correct features. The method is then applied to EEG recorded during a music listening task and is observed to automatically identify neural correlates of music tempo changes similar to neural correlates identified in a previous study. Finally,the method is applied to identify neural correlates of music-induced affective states. The identified neural correlates reside primarily over the frontal cortex and are consistent with widely reported neural correlates of emotions. Comparison with existing methods: The proposed method is compared to the state-of-the-art methods of canonical correlation analysis and common spatial patterns, in order to identify features differentiating synthetic event-related potentials of different amplitudes and is observed to exhibit greater performance as the number of unique groups in the dataset increases. Conclusions: The proposed method is able to identify neural correlates of continuous variables in EEG datasets and is shown to outperform canonical correlation analysis and common spatial patterns.

Socio-economic variables influence the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake in Brazilian adolescents: results from a population-based survey

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among adolescents and the association between socio-economic variables and nutritional status. Design: Cross-sectional study with a population-based sample. Settings: The usual nutrient intake distribution was estimated using the Iowa State University method. The Estimated Average Requirement cut-off point method was used to determine the proportion of adolescents with inadequate intake for each nutrient, according to sex, income, parental educational level and nutritional status. Subjects: Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were applied in 525 male and female Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years. Results: The highest prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was observed for vitamin E (99% in both sexes). For male and female adolescents, the prevalence of inadequate intake was: Mg, 89% and 84%; vitamin A, 78% and 71 %; vitamin C, 79% and 53%; and vitamin B(6), 21% and 33%, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake for niacin, thiamin, riboflavin, Se, Cu and vitamin B(12) was <15 %. Individuals in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata had the highest risk of having inadequate intake for P, riboflavin and vitamins A, B(6) and B(12). Compared with non-overweight individuals, overweight individuals had a higher risk of inadequate intake for Mg, vitamin A, P, thiamin and riboflavin. Conclusions: The present study found a high prevalence of inadequate intake of nutrients that are recognised as being protective against chronic diseases. Adolescents in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata were less likely to have their nutrient intake requirements met.

Effects of physiotherapy on hemodynamic variables in newborns with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a frequent respiratory disturbance in preterm newborns. Preceding investigations evaluated chronic physiotherapy effects on newborns with different lung diseases; however, no study analyzed acute physiotherapy treatment on premature newborns with ARDS. In this study we aimed to evaluate the acute effects of chest and motor physiotherapy treatment on hemodynamic variables in preterm newborns with ARDS. Methods: We evaluated heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), systolic (SAP), mean (MAP) and diastolic arterial pressure (DAP), temperature and oxygen saturation (SO(2)%) in 44 newborns with ARDS. We compared all variables between six periods in one day: before first physiotherapy treatment vs. after first physiotherapy treatment vs. before second physiotherapy treatment vs. after second physiotherapy treatment vs. before third physiotherapy treatment vs. after third physiotherapy treatment. Variables were measured 2 minutes before and 5 minutes after each physiotherapy session. We applied Anova one way followed by post hoc Bonferroni test. Results: HR (147.5 +/- 9.5 bpm vs. 137.7 +/- 9.3 bpm; p<0.001), RR (45.5 +/- 8.7cpm vs. 41.5 +/- 6.7 cpm; p=0.001), SAP (70.3 +/- 10.4 mmHg vs. 60.1 +/- 7.1 mmHg; p=0.001) and MAP (55.7 +/- 10 mmHg vs. 46 +/- 6.6 mmHg; p=0.001) were significantly reduced after the third physiotherapy treatment compared to before the first session. There were no significant changes regarding temperature, DAP and SO(2) %. Conclusion: Chest and motor physiotherapy acutely improves HR, RR, SAP, MAP and SO(2) % in newborns with ARDS.

A METHOD FOR THE STUDY OF ACCRETION DISK EMISSION IN CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES. I. THE MODEL

We have developed a spectrum synthesis method for modeling the ultraviolet (UV) emission from the accretion disk from cataclysmic variables (CVs). The disk is separated into concentric rings, with an internal structure from the Wade & Hubeny disk-atmosphere models. For each ring, a wind atmosphere is calculated in the comoving frame with a vertical velocity structure obtained from a solution of the Euler equation. Using simple assumptions, regarding rotation and the wind streamlines, these one-dimensional models are combined into a single 2.5-dimensional model for which we compute synthetic spectra. We find that the resulting line and continuum behavior as a function of the orbital inclination is consistent with the observations, and verify that the accretion rate affects the wind temperature, leading to corresponding trends in the intensity of UV lines. In general, we also find that the primary mass has a strong effect on the P Cygni absorption profiles, the synthetic emission line profiles are strongly sensitive to the wind temperature structure, and an increase in the mass-loss rate enhances the resonance line intensities. Synthetic spectra were compared with UV data for two high orbital inclination nova-like CVs-RW Tri and V347 Pup. We needed to include disk regions with arbitrary enhanced mass loss to reproduce reasonably well widths and line profiles. This fact and a lack of flux in some high ionization lines may be the signature of the presence of density-enhanced regions in the wind, or alternatively, may result from inadequacies in some of our simplifying assumptions.

Tomographic Simulations of accretion disks in cataclysmic variables - Flickering and wind

Both continuum and emission line flickering are phenomena directly associated with the mass-accretion process. In this work we simulated accretion-disk Doppler maps, including the effects of winds and flickering flares. Synthetic flickering Doppler maps were calculated and the effect of the flickering parameters on the maps was explored. Jets and winds occur in many astrophysical objects where accretion disks are present. Jets are generally absent among the cataclysmic variables (CVs), but there is evidence of mass loss by wind in many objects. CVs are ideal objects to study accretion disks, and consequently to study the wind associated with these disks. We also present simulations of accretion disks, including the presence of a wind with orbital phase resolution. Synthetic Ha line profiles in the optical region were obtained and their corresponding Doppler maps were calculated. The effect of the wind simulation parameters on the wind line profiles was also explored. From this study we verified that optically thick lines and/or emission by diffuse material into the primary Roche lobe are necessary to generate single peaked line profiles, often seen in CVs. The future accounting of these effects is suggested for interpreting Doppler tomography reconstructions.

VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV): The public ESO near-IR variability survey of the Milky Way

We describe the public ESO near-IR variability survey (VVV) scanning the Milky Way bulge and an adjacent section of the mid-plane where star formation activity is high. The survey will take 1929 h of observations with the 4-m VISTA telescope during 5 years (2010-2014), covering similar to 10(9) point sources across an area of 520 deg(2), including 33 known globular clusters and similar to 350 open clusters. The final product will be a deep near-IR atlas in five passbands (0.9-2.5 mu m) and a catalogue of more than 106 variable point sources. Unlike single-epoch surveys that, in most cases, only produce 2-D maps, the VVV variable star survey will enable the construction of a 3-D map of the surveyed region using well-understood distance indicators such as RR Lyrae stars, and Cepheids. It will yield important information on the ages of the populations. The observations will be combined with data from MACHO, OGLE, EROS, VST, Spitzer, HST, Chandra, INTEGRAL, WISE, Fermi LAT, XMM-Newton, GAIA and ALMA for a complete understanding of the variable sources in the inner Milky Way. This public survey will provide data available to the whole community and therefore will enable further studies of the history of the Milky Way, its globular cluster evolution, and the population census of the Galactic Bulge and center, as well as the investigations of the star forming regions in the disk. The combined variable star catalogues will have important implications for theoretical investigations of pulsation properties of stars. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oxidative variables and antioxidant enzymes activities in the mdx mouse brain

Dystrophin is a protein found at the plasmatic membrane in muscle and postsynaptic membrane of some neurons, where it plays an important role on synaptic transmission and plasticity. Its absence is associated with Duchenne`s muscular dystrophy (DMD), in which cognitive impairment is found. Oxidative stress appears to be involved in the physiopathology of DMD and its cognitive dysfunction. In this regard, the present study investigated oxidative parameters (lipid and protein peroxidation) and antioxidant enzymes activities (superoxide dismutase and catalase) in prefrontal cortex, cerebellum, hippocampus, striatum and cortex tissues from male dystrophic mdx and normal C57BL10 mice. We observed (I) reduced lipid peroxidation in striatum and protein peroxidation in cerebellum and prefrontal cortex; (2) increased superoxide dismutase activity in cerebellum, prefrontal cortex, hippocampus and striatum: and (3) reduced catalase activity in striatum. It seems by our results, that the superoxide dismutase antioxidant mechanism is playing a protective role against lipid and protein peroxidation in mdx mouse brain. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hypotheses Testing on a Multivariate Null Intercept Errors-in-Variables Model

Considering the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio asymptotic test statistics, we analyze a multivariate null intercept errors-in-variables regression model, where the explanatory and the response variables are subject to measurement errors, and a possible structure of dependency between the measurements taken within the same individual are incorporated, representing a longitudinal structure. This model was proposed by Aoki et al. (2003b) and analyzed under the bayesian approach. In this article, considering the classical approach, we analyze asymptotic test statistics and present a simulation study to compare the behavior of the three test statistics for different sample sizes, parameter values and nominal levels of the test. Also, closed form expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix are presented. We consider two real numerical illustrations, the odontological data set from Hadgu and Koch (1999), and a quality control data set.