The long-term EU budget: size or flexibility? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/20, November 2012

The EU is in the process of negotiating its 2014-20 financial framework. Failure to reach an agreement would imply a delay in the preparation of the strategic plans each member state puts together to explain how it will use Structural and Cohesion Funds. Even if solutions are found – for example annual renewals of the budget based on the previous year's figures – there will be political and institutional costs. EU leaders have too often and too forcefully advocated the use of the EU budget for growth to be able to drop the idea without consequences. • The overwhelming attention paid to the size of the budget is misplaced. EU leaders should instead aim to make the EU budget more flexible, safeguard it from future political power struggles, and reinforce assessment of the impact of EU funded growth policies. • To improve flexibility a commitment device should be created that places the EU budget above continuous political disagreement. We suggest the creation of a European Growth Fund, on the basis of which the European Commission should be allowed to borrow on capital markets to anticipate pre-allocated EU expenditure, such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. Markets would thus be a factor in EU budget policymaking, with a potentially disciplining effect. Attaching conditionality to this type of disbursement appears legitimate, as capital delivered in this way is a form of assistance.

The effect of thermal conductivity of RIM moulds in kinetics cure

Reaction Injection Moulding (RIM) is a moulding technology used for the production of large size and complex plastic parts. The RIM process is characterized essentially by the injection of a highly reactive chemical system (usually polyurethane) and fast cure, in a mould properly closed and thermally controlled. Several studies show that rapid manufacturing moulds obtained in epoxy resins for Thermoplastic Injection Moulding (TIM) affect the moulding process and the final properties of parts. The cycle time and mechanical properties of final parts are reduced, due to a low thermal conductivity of epoxy materials. In contrast, the low conductivity of materials usually applied for the rapid manufacturing of RIM moulds, increase the mechanical properties of final injected parts and reduce the cycle time. This study shows the effect of the rapid manufacturing moulds material during the RIM process. Several materials have been tested for rapid manufacturing of RIM moulds and the analysis of both, temperature profile of moulded parts during injection and the cure data experimentally obtained in a mixing and reaction cell, allow to determine and model the real effect of the mould material on the RIM process.

Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: the effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function

Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSU) on the NOAA operational satellites have been the main source of near global temperature trend data above the lower stratosphere. They have been used extensively for comparison with model-derived trends. The SSU senses in the 15 micron band of CO2 and hence the weighting function is sensitive to changes in CO2 concentrations. The impact of this change in weighting function has been ignored in all recent trend analyses. We show that the apparent trends in global mean brightness temperature due to the change in weighting function vary from about -0.4 K/decade to 0.4 K/decade depending on the altitude sensed by the different SSU channels. For some channels, this apparent trend is of a similar size to the trend deduced from SSU data but ignoring the change in weighting function. In the mid-stratosphere, the revised trends are now significantly more negative and in better agreement with model-calculated trends.

Testing the influence of small crystals on ice size spectra using Doppler lidar observations

Analysis of the vertical velocity of ice crystals observed with a 1.5micron Doppler lidar from a continuous sample of stratiform ice clouds over 17 months show that the distribution of Doppler velocity varies strongly with temperature, with mean velocities of 0.2m/s at -40C, increasing to 0.6m/s at -10C due to particle growth and broadening of the size spectrum. We examine the likely influence of crystals smaller than 60microns by forward modelling their effect on the area-weighted fall speed, and comparing the results to the lidar observations. The comparison strongly suggests that the concentration of small crystals in most clouds is much lower than measured in-situ by some cloud droplet probes. We argue that the discrepancy is likely due to shattering of large crystals on the probe inlet, and that numerous small particles should not be included in numerical weather and climate model parameterizations.

Mass and size distribution measurement of particulates from a gas turbine combustor using modern mobility analyzer and particle sizer

SMPS and DMS500 analysers were used to measure particulate size distributions in the exhaust of a fully annular aero gas turbine engine at two operating conditions to compare and analyse sources of discrepancy. A number of different dilution ratio values were utilised for the comparative analysis, and a Dekati hot diluter operating at a temperature of 623°K was also utilised to remove volatile PM prior to measurements being made. Additional work focused on observing the effect of varying the sample line temperatures to ascertain the impact. Explanations are offered for most of the trends observed, although a new, repeatable event identified in the range from 417°K to 423°K – where there was a three order of magnitude increase in the nucleation mode of the sample – requires further study.

Effect of time and mode of depuration on tissue copper concentrations of the earthworms Eisenia andrei, Lumbricus rubellus and Lumbricus terrestris

Eisenia andrei, Lumbricus rubellus and Lumbricus terrestris were exposed to 250, 250 and 350 mg kg(-1) Cu respectively in Cu(NO3)(2(aq)) amended soil for 28 d. Earthworms were then depurated for 24 to 72 h, digested and analysed for Cu and Ti or, subsequent to depuration were dissected to remove any remaining soil particles from the alimentary canal and then digested and analysed. This latter treatment proved impossible for E. andrei due to its small size. Regardless of depuration time, soil particles were retained in the alimentary canal of L. rubellus and L. terrestris. Tissue concentration determinations indicate that E. andrei should be depurated for 24 h, L. rubellus for 48 h and L. terrestris should be dissected. Ti was bioaccumulated and therefore could not be used as an inert tracer to determine mass of retained soil. Calculations indicate that after 28 d earthworms were still absorbing Cu from soil. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. I. Underlying asymmetry

Matheron's usual variogram estimator can result in unreliable variograms when data are strongly asymmetric or skewed. Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. This paper examines the effects of underlying asymmetry on the variogram and on the accuracy of prediction, and the second one examines the effects arising from outliers. Standard geostatistical texts suggest ways of dealing with underlying asymmetry; however, this is based on informed intuition rather than detailed investigation. To determine whether the methods generally used to deal with underlying asymmetry are appropriate, the effects of different coefficients of skewness on the shape of the experimental variogram and on the model parameters were investigated. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size from variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These data were then modified to give different degrees of asymmetry and the experimental variogram was computed in each case. The effects of standard data transformations on the form of the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess quantitatively the performance of the different variogram models for kriging. The results showed that the shape of the variogram was affected by the degree of asymmetry, and that the effect increased as the size of data set decreased. Transformations of the data were more effective in reducing the skewness coefficient in the larger sets of data. Cross-validation confirmed that variogram models from transformed data were more suitable for kriging than were those from the raw asymmetric data. The results of this study have implications for the 'standard best practice' in dealing with asymmetry in data for geostatistical analyses. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. II. Outliers

Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. The first paper of this series examined the effects of the former on the variogram and this paper examines the effects of asymmetry arising from outliers. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size that are realizations of known processes described by variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These primary data sets were then contaminated with randomly located and spatially aggregated outliers from a secondary process to produce different degrees of asymmetry. Experimental variograms were computed from these data by Matheron's estimator and by three robust estimators. The effects of standard data transformations on the coefficient of skewness and on the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of models fitted to experimental variograms computed from a range of data contaminated by outliers for kriging. The results showed that where skewness was caused by outliers the variograms retained their general shape, but showed an increase in the nugget and sill variances and nugget:sill ratios. This effect was only slightly more for the smallest data set than for the two larger data sets and there was little difference between the results for the latter. Overall, the effect of size of data set was small for all analyses. The nugget:sill ratio showed a consistent decrease after transformation to both square roots and logarithms; the decrease was generally larger for the latter, however. Aggregated outliers had different effects on the variogram shape from those that were randomly located, and this also depended on whether they were aggregated near to the edge or the centre of the field. The results of cross-validation showed that the robust estimators and the removal of outliers were the most effective ways of dealing with outliers for variogram estimation and kriging. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the enzymatic landscape: distribution and kinetics of hydrolytic enzymes in soil particle-size fractions

The location of extracellular enzymes within the soil architecture and their association with the various soil components affects their catalytic potential. A soil fractionation study was carried out to investigate: (a) the distribution of a range of hydrolytic enzymes involved in C, N and P transformations, (b) the effect of the location on their respective kinetics, (c) the effect of long-term N fertilizer management on enzyme distribution and kinetic parameters. Soil (silty clay loam) from grassland which had received 0 or 200 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) was fractionated, and four particle-size fractions (> 200, 200-63, 63-2 and 0. 1-2 mum) were obtained by a combination of wet-sieving and centrifugation, after low-energy ultrasonication. All fractions were assayed for four carbohydrases (beta-cellobiohydrolase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosammidase, beta-glucosidase and beta-xylosidase), acid phosphatase and leucine-aminopeptidase using a microplate fluorimetric assay based on MUB-substrates. Enzyme kinetics (V-max and K-m) were estimated in three particle-size fractions and the unfractionated soil. The results showed that not all particle-size fractions were equally enzymatically active and that the distribution of enzymes between fractions depended on the enzyme. Carbohydrases predominated in the coarser fractions while phosphatase and leucine-aminopeptidase were predominant in the clay-size fraction. The Michaelis constant (K.) varied among fractions, indicating that the association of the same enzyme with different particle-size fractions affected its substrate affinity. The same values of Km were found in the same fractions from the soil under two contrasting fertilizer management regimes, indicating that the Michaelis constant was unaffected by soil changes caused by N fertilizer management. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Auditory memory and the irrelevant sound effect: further evidence for changing state disruption

Four experiments investigate the hypothesis that irrelevant sound interferes with serial recall of auditory items in the same fashion as with visually presented items. In Experiment 1 an acoustically changing sequence of 30 irrelevant utterances was more disruptive than 30 repetitions of the same utterance (the changing-state effect; Jones, Madden, & Miles, 1992) whether the to-be-remembered items were visually or auditorily presented. Experiment 2 showed that two different utterances spoken once (a heterogeneous compound suffix; LeCompte & Watkins, 1995) produced less disruption to serial recall than 15 repetitions of the same sequence. Disruption thus depends on the number of sounds in the irrelevant sequence. In Experiments 3a and 3b the number of different sounds, the "token-set" size (Tremblay & Jones, 1998), in an irrelevant sequence also influenced the magnitude of disruption in both irrelevant sound and compound suffix conditions. The results support the view that the disruption of memory for auditory items, like memory for visually presented items, is dependent on the number of different irrelevant sounds presented and the size of the set from which these sounds are taken. Theoretical implications are discussed.

The radiative effect of a fir canopy on a snowpack

Models of snow processes in areas of possible large-scale change need to be site independent and physically based. Here, the accumulation and ablation of the seasonal snow cover beneath a fir canopy has been simulated with a new physically based snow-soil vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme (Snow-SVAT) called SNOWCAN. The model was formulated by coupling a canopy optical and thermal radiation model to a physically based multilayer snow model. Simple representations of other forest effects were included. These include the reduction of wind speed and hence turbulent transfer beneath the canopy, sublimation of intercepted snow, and deposition of debris on the surface. This paper tests this new modeling approach fully at a fir site within Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho. Model parameters were determined at an open site and subsequently applied to the fir site. SNOWCAN was evaluated using measurements of snow depth, subcanopy solar and thermal radiation, and snowpack profiles of temperature, density, and grain size. Simulations showed good agreement with observations (e.g., fir site snow depth was estimated over the season with r(2) = 0.96), generally to within measurement error. However, the simulated temperature profiles were less accurate after a melt-freeze event, when the temperature discrepancy resulted from underestimation of the rate of liquid water flow and/or the rate of refreeze. This indicates both that the general modeling approach is applicable and that a still more complete representation of liquid water in the snowpack will be important.

Effects of patch size and density on flower visitation and seed set of wild plants: a pan-European approach

1. Habitat fragmentation can affect pollinator and plant population structure in terms of species composition, abundance, area covered and density of flowering plants. This, in turn, may affect pollinator visitation frequency, pollen deposition, seed set and plant fitness. 2. A reduction in the quantity of flower visits can be coupled with a reduction in the quality of pollination service and hence the plants’ overall reproductive success and long-term survival. Understanding the relationship between plant population size and⁄ or isolation and pollination limitation is of fundamental importance for plant conservation. 3. Weexamined flower visitation and seed set of 10 different plant species fromfive European countries to investigate the general effects of plant populations size and density, both within (patch level) and between populations (population level), on seed set and pollination limitation. 4. Wefound evidence that the effects of area and density of flowering plant assemblages were generally more pronounced at the patch level than at the population level. We also found that patch and population level together influenced flower visitation and seed set, and the latter increased with increasing patch area and density, but this effect was only apparent in small populations. 5. Synthesis. By using an extensive pan-European data set on flower visitation and seed set we have identified a general pattern in the interplay between the attractiveness of flowering plant patches for pollinators and density dependence of flower visitation, and also a strong plant species-specific response to habitat fragmentation effects. This can guide efforts to conserve plant–pollinator interactions, ecosystem functioning and plant fitness in fragmented habitats.

Organizational effects of fetal testosterone on human corpus callosum size and asymmetry

Previous theory and research in animals has identified the critical role that fetal testosterone (FT) plays in organizing sexually dimorphic brain development. However, to date there are no studies in humans directly testing the organizational effects of FT on structural brain development. In the current study we investigated the effects of FT on corpus callosum size and asymmetry. High-resolution structural magnetic resonance images (MRI) of the brain were obtained on 28 8-11-year-old boys whose exposure to FT had been previously measured in utero via amniocentesis conducted during the second trimester. Although there was no relationship between FT and midsaggital corpus callosum size, increasing FT was significantly related to increasing rightward asymmetry (e.g., Right>Left) of a posterior subsection of the callosum, the isthmus, that projects mainly to parietal and superior temporal areas. This potential organizational effect of FT on rightward callosal asymmetry may be working through enhancing the neuroprotective effects of FT and result in an asymmetric distribution of callosal axons. We suggest that this possible organizational effect of FT on callosal asymmetry may also play a role in shaping sexual dimorphism in functional and structural brain development, cognition, and behavior.

Estimating drizzle drop size and precipitation rate using two-colour lidar measurements

A method to estimate the size and liquid water content of drizzle drops using lidar measurements at two wavelengths is described. The method exploits the differential absorption of infrared light by liquid water at 905 nm and 1.5 μm, which leads to a different backscatter cross section for water drops larger than ≈50 μm. The ratio of backscatter measured from drizzle samples below cloud base at these two wavelengths (the colour ratio) provides a measure of the median volume drop diameter D0. This is a strong effect: for D0=200 μm, a colour ratio of ≈6 dB is predicted. Once D0 is known, the measured backscatter at 905 nm can be used to calculate the liquid water content (LWC) and other moments of the drizzle drop distribution. The method is applied to observations of drizzle falling from stratocumulus and stratus clouds. High resolution (32 s, 36 m) profiles of D0, LWC and precipitation rate R are derived. The main sources of error in the technique are the need to assume a value for the dispersion parameter μ in the drop size spectrum (leading to at most a 35% error in R) and the influence of aerosol returns on the retrieval (≈10% error in R for the cases considered here). Radar reflectivities are also computed from the lidar data, and compared to independent measurements from a colocated cloud radar, offering independent validation of the derived drop size distributions.

Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.