Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Nouveau manuel complet de géologie, ou Traité élémentaire de cette science... (Nouvelle édition revue, corrigée et augmentée) / par M. J.-J.-N. Huot,...

Collection : Manuels Roret

Le réalisme métaéthique face à la science : un rapport conflictuel

Cet article traite d'un problème de métaéthique : la question de la possibilité du réalisme moral. Nous aborderons cette question à partir de ce que nous appellerons le point de vue du philosophe scientifique. L'objectif est de montrer l'incompatibilité de ce point de vue avec une position réaliste. La structure de l'article est la suivante. Nous commencerons par quelques éclaircissements terminologiques afin que le lecteur puisse se faire une idée précise de ce que nous entendons par réalisme moral (nous déclinerons notamment les différentes variantes possibles du réalisme au moyen d'un tableau) et point de vue scientifique sur la morale. Notre travail consistera ensuite à montrer de manière systématique qu'aucune des variantes du réalisme moral n'est acceptable pour un philosophe scientifique.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

New perspectives in the use of ink evidence in forensic science: Part II. Development and testing of mathematical algorithms for the automatic comparison of ink samples analysed by HPTLC

In the first part of this research, three stages were stated for a program to increase the information extracted from ink evidence and maximise its usefulness to the criminal and civil justice system. These stages are (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples by high-performance thin layer chromatography (HPTLC) in reproducible way, when ink samples are analysed at different time, locations and by different examiners; (b) compare automatically and objectively ink samples; and (c) define and evaluate theoretical framework for the use of ink evidence in forensic context. This report focuses on the second of the three stages. Using the calibration and acquisition process described in the previous report, mathematical algorithms are proposed to automatically and objectively compare ink samples. The performances of these algorithms are systematically studied for various chemical and forensic conditions using standard performance tests commonly used in biometrics studies. The results show that different algorithms are best suited for different tasks. Finally, this report demonstrates how modern analytical and computer technology can be used in the field of ink examination and how tools developed and successfully applied in other fields of forensic science can help maximising its impact within the field of questioned documents.

International trends in health science librarianship: part 4--four Southern European countries.

This is the fourth in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship in four Southern European countries in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. Future issues will track trends in Latin America and Central Europe.

Fructose toxicity: is the science ready for public health actions?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The assumption that fructose may be toxic and involved in the pathogenesis of noncommunicable diseases such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and even cancer has resulted in the call for public health action, such as introducing taxes on sweetened beverages. This review evaluates the scientific basis for such action. RECENT FINDINGS: Although some studies hint towards some potential adverse effects of excessive fructose consumption especially when combined with excess energy intake, the results from clinical trials do not support a significant detrimental effect of fructose on metabolic health when consumed as part of a weight-maintaining diet in amounts consistent with the average-estimated fructose consumption in Western countries. However, definitive studies are missing. SUMMARY: Public health policies to eliminate or limit fructose in the diet should be considered premature. Instead, efforts should be made to promote a healthy lifestyle that includes physical activity and nutritious foods while avoiding intake of excess calories until solid evidence to support action against fructose is available. Public health is almost certainly to benefit more from policies that are aimed at promoting what is known to be good than from policies that are prohibiting what is not (yet) known to be bad.