Commodity Future Price Premiums – Case EU ETS

The purpose of this thesis was to study commodity future price premiums and their nature on emission allowance markets. The EUA spot and future contracts traded on the secondary market during EU ETS Phase 2 and Phase 3 were selected for empirical testing. The cointegration of spot and future prices was examined with Johansen cointegration methodology. Daily interest rates with a similar tenor to the future contract maturity were used in the cost-of-carry model to calculate the theoretical future prices and to estimate the deviation from the fair value of future contracts, assumed to be explained by the convenience yield. The time-varying dependence of the convenience yield was studied by regression testing the correlation between convenience yield and the time to maturity of the future contract. The results indicated cointegration between spot and future prices, albeit depending on assumptions on linear trend and intercept in cointegration vector Dec-14 and Dec-15 contracts. The convenience yield correlates positively with the time-to-maturity of the future contract during Phase 2, but negatively during Phase 3. The convenience yield featured positive correlation with spot price volatility and negative correlation with future price volatility during both Phases 2 and 3.

Asiakasarvon selvittäminen ja palvelukonseptin kehittäminen muovialan pk-yrityksessä

Kahden yrityksen väliset transaktiot perustuvat pohjimmiltaan asiakkaan kokemaan arvoon, eli siihen, mitä hyötyjä asiakas kokee saavansa suhteessa niihin kustannuksiin, jotka se joutuu uhraamaan ne saavuttaakseen. Tämän arvon tulee parantaa asiakkaan asemaa suhteessa sen omaan kilpailutilanteeseen ja asiakkaisiin. Arvo voi muodostua tarjooman hinnoittelusta, mutta muita asiakasarvon ulottuvuuksia voivat olla muun muassa laatutekijät sekä asiakassuhteen ja toimittajan imagon vaikutukset. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, mitkä ulottuvuuden muodostavat asiakkaan kokeman arvon case-yrityksen toimialalla sen urakoitsija- ja jälleenmyyjäasiakkailleen segmenteissä. Lisäksi analysoidaan, kuinka tuotantoon keskittyneen yrityksen tulisi kehittää palvelukonseptiaan luodakseen lisäarvoa kyseisille segmenteille ja saavuttaakseen siten kilpailuetua markkinoilla. Tutkimus on tapaustutkimus, jonka tärkeimpänä aineistonkeruumenetelmänä toimivat 17 nykyisten, entisten ja potentiaalisten asiakkaiden teemahaastattelua. Tulokset osoittavat, että toimiala on haastava lisäpalveluiden kannalta, koska ne eivät ole sille tyypillisiä. Asiakkaiden näyttää olevan erityisen vaikea tunnistaa palveluita, joista ne olisivat valmiita maksamaan. Tämä johtaa tilanteeseen, jossa asiakasuskollisuus ei ole erityisen korkea, vaan etenkin jälleenmyyjäasiakkaat ostavat tuotteet pääosin hintaan perustuen. Selkeän lisäarvopalvelukonseptin luominen voikin parantaa asiakasuskollisuutta ja sitä kautta asiakkaan elinkaaren arvoa, mikä voi rikkoa markkinoiden perinteisiä toimintamalleja case-yrityksen eduksi.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

The growing competition in Brazilian science: rites of passage, stress and burnout

Brazil's scientific community is under pressure. Each year there is an increase in its contribution to international science and in the number of students who are trained to do research and teach at an advanced level. Most of these activities are carried out in state and federal universities, but with government funding that has decreased by more than 70% since 1996. Interviews with graduate students, post-doctoral fellows and professors in one university department with a strong research tradition illustrate the level of stress engendered by the conflict between increasing competition and diminishing resources, and serve to underscore the negative effects on creativity and on the tendency to choose science as a career.

Effect of naloxone on food competition aggression in food-restricted high and low aggression pigeons (Columba livia)

We determined the effect of the opiate receptor antagonist naloxone on aggression, emotion, feeder control, and eating behavior in high and low aggression female pigeons maintained at 80% of their normal weight and exposed to food competition interactions. Pigeons were divided into pairs by previously ranked high aggression (total time spent in offensive aggression exceeding 60 s/5 min; N = 6 pairs) and low aggression females (time spent in offensive aggression less than 10 s/5 min; N = 6 pairs). A pigeon in each pair received an sc dose of naloxone (1 mg kg-1 ml saline-1) and the other animal received the vehicle. Trials (10 min) were performed 30 min after the naloxone/vehicle administration. The naloxone group of high aggression pigeons showed lower scores of total time spent in offensive aggression (control: 98.6 ± 12.0; naloxone: 46.8 ± 6.6 s; P < 0.05) and higher scores of time spent in emotional responses (control: 3.5 ± 0.6; naloxone: 10.8 ± 2.4 s; P < 0.05) than controls. The other behaviors scored, feeder control and eating behavior, were not affected in this group. The naloxone group of low aggression pigeons, however, showed higher scores of offensive aggression than their controls (5.3 ± 1.3; naloxone: 28.7 ± 8.0 s; P < 0.05). The present results suggest that opiate receptor mechanisms are implicated in offensive aggression responses in high and low aggression pigeons. However, as reported for brain 5-hydroxytryptamine manipulation and GABA-A-benzodiazepine receptor manipulation, the effect of the opiate receptor antagonist on food competition aggression in pigeons was related to their pretreatment level of aggression.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.

Hoitokuluanalyysi Suomen yksityisen sektorin työeläkejärjestelmästä

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia Suomen työeläkevakuutusyhtiöiden työeläkevakuutusmaksun hoitokustannusosalla katettavia liikekuluja ja muodostaa analyysi Suomen työeläkevakuutusjärjestelmän liikekulujen kehittymisestä ja tehokkuuden tasosta. Tehokkuusnäkökulman lisäksi tarkastellaan työeläkejärjestelmän kilpailuolosuhteita. Tutkimusta motivoi työeläkealalle ajankohtainen asia, joka liittyy yhtiökohtaisen hinnoittelumallin mahdolliseen käyttöönottoon, jota parhaillaan suunnitellaan työeläkealan tehokkuuden ja kilpailullisuuden lisäämiseksi. Yhtiökohtaisessa hinnoittelumallissa työeläkeyhtiö voisi itsenäisesti vaikuttaa työeläkevakuutuksen hintaan hoitokustannusosan kautta, joka määräytyisi pitkälti sen mukaan kuinka tehokkaasti yhtiö pystyy toimintansa järjestämään. Empiirinen tutkimus on toteutettu kvalitatiivisena tapaustutkimuksena, jossa kuitenkin empiirinen analyysi perustuu kvantitatiiviseen aineistoon ja aineistoa on käsitelty kvantitatiivisen tutkimuksen menetelmin. Pääasiallisina tutkimusotteina on käytetty taulukointia ja erinäisten muuttujien välistä korrelaatiota. Tuloksien suhteen on käytetty aineistolähtöistä induktiivista päättelyä. Tutkimuksessa on tutkittu seitsemän yksityisen sektorin työeläkeyhtiön liikekuluja vuosilta 2006–2013. Tutkimustuloksien mukaan järjestelmätasolla tarkasteltuna työeläkeyhtiöiden toiminta on tehokasta, joskin yksittäisten yhtiöiden välillä on suuriakin tehokkuuseroja. Vakuutusten ja korvaustoiminnan hoito ovat suurimmat kustannusten aiheuttajat. Työeläkemarkkinat ovat hyvin keskittyneet ja muistuttavat enemmänkin oligopolisia markkinoita kuin täydellisen kilpailun markkinoita.

Cost Reduction of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines

Electrical machine drives are the most electrical energy-consuming systems worldwide. The largest proportion of drives is found in industrial applications. There are, however many other applications that are also based on the use of electrical machines, because they have a relatively high efficiency, a low noise level, and do not produce local pollution. Electrical machines can be classified into several categories. One of the most commonly used electrical machine types (especially in the industry) is induction motors, also known as asynchronous machines. They have a mature production process and a robust rotor construction. However, in the world pursuing higher energy efficiency with reasonable investments not every application receives the advantage of using this type of motor drives. The main drawback of induction motors is the fact that they need slipcaused and thus loss-generating current in the rotor, and additional stator current for magnetic field production along with the torque-producing current. This can reduce the electric motor drive efficiency, especially in low-speed, low-power applications. Often, when high torque density is required together with low losses, it is desirable to apply permanent magnet technology, because in this case there is no need to use current to produce the basic excitation of the machine. This promotes the effectiveness of copper use in the stator, and further, there is no rotor current in these machines. Again, if permanent magnets with a high remanent flux density are used, the air gap flux density can be higher than in conventional induction motors. These advantages have raised the popularity of PMSMs in some challenging applications, such as hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), wind turbines, and home appliances. Usually, a correctly designed PMSM has a higher efficiency and consequently lower losses than its induction machine counterparts. Therefore, the use of these electrical machines reduces the energy consumption of the whole system to some extent, which can provide good motivation to apply permanent magnet technology to electrical machines. However, the cost of high performance rare earth permanent magnets in these machines may not be affordable in many industrial applications, because the tight competition between the manufacturers dictates the rules of low-cost and highly robust solutions, where asynchronous machines seem to be more feasible at the moment. Two main electromagnetic components of an electrical machine are the stator and the rotor. In the case of a conventional radial flux PMSM, the stator contains magnetic circuit lamination and stator winding, and the rotor consists of rotor steel (laminated or solid) and permanent magnets. The lamination itself does not significantly influence the total cost of the machine, even though it can considerably increase the construction complexity, as it requires a special assembly arrangement. However, thin metal sheet processing methods are very effective and economically feasible. Therefore, the cost of the machine is mainly affected by the stator winding and the permanent magnets. The work proposed in this doctoral dissertation comprises a description and analysis of two approaches of PMSM cost reduction: one on the rotor side and the other on the stator side. The first approach on the rotor side includes the use of low-cost and abundant ferrite magnets together with a tooth-coil winding topology and an outer rotor construction. The second approach on the stator side exploits the use of a modular stator structure instead of a monolithic one. PMSMs with the proposed structures were thoroughly analysed by finite element method based tools (FEM). It was found out that by implementing the described principles, some favourable characteristics of the machine (mainly concerning the machine size) will inevitable be compromised. However, the main target of the proposed approaches is not to compete with conventional rare earth PMSMs, but to reduce the price at which they can be implemented in industrial applications, keeping their dimensions at the same level or lower than those of a typical electrical machine used in the industry at the moment. The measurement results of the prototypes show that the main performance characteristics of these machines are at an acceptable level. It is shown that with certain specific actions it is possible to achieve a desirable efficiency level of the machine with the proposed cost reduction methods.

Effects of sodium valproate and carbamazepine on food competition aggression in pigeons

Valproate and carbamazepine (CAR) have been proposed as adjunct alternatives for the control of aggression in psychiatric patients, although no definite conclusions have been reached. We examined the effects of these drugs on food competition offensive aggression and other behaviors in high- and low-aggression food-restricted pigeons. These were divided into pairs containing previously ranked high-aggression (N = 10 pairs) and low-aggression females (N = 10 pairs). In Experiment 1, a pigeon in each pair of high- and low-aggression subjects was treated daily with an oral dose of sodium valproate (50 mg kg-1 mL saline-1) for 15 days. The other animal received the vehicle. On days 1, 7, and 15, food competition trials (10 min) were performed 60 min after treatment. In Experiment 2, one pigeon in each pair was treated daily with an oral dose of CAR (20 mg kg-1 mL saline-1) for 15 days. Each pair was submitted to a food competition trial on days 1, 7, and 15 of treatment. Valproate (15 days of treatment) selectively decreased the time spent in offensive aggression (control: 102.7 ± 9.3 vs valproate: 32.7 ± 9.2 s; P < 0.001, ANOVA-2-TAU) of high-aggression pigeons. This was also the case for 7 and 15 days of CAR treatment (control: 131.5 ± 8.9 vs CAR: 60.4 ± 5.3, P < 0.01, and control: 122.7 ± 7.1 vs CAR: 39.1 ± 5.2; P < 0.001, ANOVA-2-TAU, respectively). Thus, the two anticonvulsive drugs have a similar effect on food competition aggression in pigeons.

Relationship between the price of fish and its quality attributes: a study within a community at the University of São Paulo, Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations between the products' market price and attributes related to fish purchase and consumption within a university community in Brazil. A structured questionnaire consisting of a five-point Likert scale was used. It was previously tested and made available to the university community via the Internet. The sample comprised 1966 voluntaries including university students and faculty and staff members. A descriptive analysis of data was performed using Spearman's correlation analysis. The results showed that the majority of the respondents (56%) consume fish at home; some consume fish at restaurants (39%), and 5% at family or friends' houses, reinforcing the idea that variables such as culture and reference groups are fundamental determinants of purchase and consumption behavior. It was identified a significant (p < 0.001) and very strong correlation between the attributes price and nutritional value (r = 0.92); price and availability at the usual places of purchase (r = 0.92); price and packaging (r = 0.92); price and brand name (r = 0.91); and price and of the Federal Inspection stamp (r = 0.91) and a low positive correlation (p < 0.001) between the price variable and the initiative for fish traceability (r = 0.16). This study demonstrated that the price of fish is associated with the quality of the product and the attributes related to it such as packaging, nutritional value, and availability of the product in the market.