The Influence of Fractures on Vulnerability to Pollution of a Carbonate Aquifer: Monte Conero (Italy)

The carbonate outcrops of the anticline of Monte Conero (Italy) were studied in order to characterize the geometry of the fractures and to establish their influence on the petrophysical properties (hydraulic conductivity) and on the vulnerability to pollution. The outcrops form an analog for a fractured aquifer and belong to the Maiolica Fm. and the Scaglia Rossa Fm. The geometrical properties of fractures such as orientation, length, spacing and aperture were collected and statistically analyzed. Five types of mechanical fractures were observed: veins, joints, stylolites, breccias and faults. The types of fractures are arranged in different sets and geometric assemblages which form fracture networks. In addition, the fractures were analyzed at the microscale using thin sections. The fracture age-relationships resulted similar to those observed at the outcrop scale, indicating that at least three geological episodes have occurred in Monte Conero. A conceptual model for fault development was based on the observations of veins and stylolites. The fracture sets were modelled by the code FracSim3D to generate fracture network models. The permeability of a breccia zone was estimated at microscale by and point counting and binary image methods, whereas at the outcrop scale with Oda’s method. Microstructure analysis revealed that only faults and breccias are potential pathways for fluid flow since all veins observed are filled with calcite. According this, three scenarios were designed to asses the vulnerability to pollution of the analogue aquifer: the first scenario considers the Monte Conero without fractures, second scenario with all observed systematic fractures and the third scenario with open veins, joints and faults/breccias. The fractures influence the carbonate aquifer by increasing its porosity and hydraulic conductivity. The vulnerability to pollution depends also on the presence of karst zones, detric zones and the material of the vadose zone.

Industrial accidents triggered by lightning: causes and consequences

Natural hazards affecting industrial installations could directly or indirectly cause an accident or series of accidents with serious consequences for the environment and for human health. Accidents initiated by a natural hazard or disaster which result in the release of hazardous materials are commonly referred to as Natech (Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological Disaster) accidents. The conditions brought about by these kinds of events are particularly problematic, the presence of the natural event increases the probability of exposition and causes consequences more serious than standard technological accidents. Despite a growing body of research and more stringent regulations for the design and operation of industrial activities, Natech accidents remain a threat. This is partly due to the absence of data and dedicated risk-assessment methodologies and tools. Even the Seveso Directives for the control of risks due to major accident hazards do not include any specific impositions regarding the management of Natech risks in the process industries. Among the few available tools there is the European Standard EN 62305, which addresses generic industrial sites, requiring to take into account the possibility of lightning and to select the appropriate protection measures. Since it is intended for generic industrial installations, this tool set the requirements for the design, the construction and the modification of structures, and is thus mainly oriented towards conventional civil building. A first purpose of this project is to study the effects and the consequences on industrial sites of lightning, which is the most common adverse natural phenomenon in Europe. Lightning is the cause of several industrial accidents initiated by natural causes. The industrial sectors most susceptible to accidents triggered by lightning is the petrochemical one, due to the presence of atmospheric tanks (especially floating roof tanks) containing flammable vapors which could be easily ignited by a lightning strike or by lightning secondary effects (as electrostatic and electromagnetic pulses or ground currents). A second purpose of this work is to implement the procedure proposed by the European Standard on a specific kind of industrial plant, i.e. on a chemical factory, in order to highlight the critical aspects of this implementation. A case-study plant handling flammable liquids was selected. The application of the European Standard allowed to estimate the incidence of lightning activity on the total value of the default release frequency suggested by guidelines for atmospheric storage tanks. Though it has become evident that the European Standard does not introduce any parameters explicitly pointing out the amount of dangerous substances which could be ignited or released. Furthermore the parameters that are proposed to describe the characteristics of the structures potentially subjected to lightning strikes are insufficient to take into account the specific features of different chemical equipment commonly present in chemical plants.

Global modeling of pollutant transport and deposition from anthropogenic emission hot spots on global scale

Urban centers significantly contribute to anthropogenic air pollution, although they cover only a minor fraction of the Earth's land surface. Since the worldwide degree of urbanization is steadily increasing, the anthropogenic contribution to air pollution from urban centers is expected to become more substantial in future air quality assessments. The main objective of this thesis was to obtain a more profound insight in the dispersion and the deposition of aerosol particles from 46 individual major population centers (MPCs) as well as the regional and global influence on the atmospheric distribution of several aerosol types. For the first time, this was assessed in one model framework, for which the global model EMAC was applied with different representations of aerosol particles. First, in an approach with passive tracers and a setup in which the results depend only on the source location and the size and the solubility of the tracers, several metrics and a regional climate classification were used to quantify the major outflow pathways, both vertically and horizontally, and to compare the balance between pollution export away from and pollution build-up around the source points. Then in a more comprehensive approach, the anthropogenic emissions of key trace species were changed at the MPC locations to determine the cumulative impact of the MPC emissions on the atmospheric aerosol burdens of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfate, and nitrate. Ten different mono-modal passive aerosol tracers were continuously released at the same constant rate at each emission point. The results clearly showed that on average about five times more mass is advected quasi-horizontally at low levels than exported into the upper troposphere. The strength of the low-level export is mainly determined by the location of the source, while the vertical transport is mainly governed by the lifting potential and the solubility of the tracers. Similar to insoluble gas phase tracers, the low-level export of aerosol tracers is strongest at middle and high latitudes, while the regions of strongest vertical export differ between aerosol (temperate winter dry) and gas phase (tropics) tracers. The emitted mass fraction that is kept around MPCs is largest in regions where aerosol tracers have short lifetimes; this mass is also critical for assessing the impact on humans. However, the number of people who live in a strongly polluted region around urban centers depends more on the population density than on the size of the area which is affected by strong air pollution. Another major result was that fine aerosol particles (diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometer) from MPCs undergo substantial long-range transport, with about half of the emitted mass being deposited beyond 1000 km away from the source. In contrast to this diluted remote deposition, there are areas around the MPCs which experience high deposition rates, especially in regions which are frequently affected by heavy precipitation or are situated in poorly ventilated locations. Moreover, most MPC aerosol emissions are removed over land surfaces. In particular, forests experience more deposition from MPC pollutants than other land ecosystems. In addition, it was found that the generic treatment of aerosols has no substantial influence on the major conclusions drawn in this thesis. Moreover, in the more comprehensive approach, it was found that emissions of black carbon, particulate organic matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides from MPCs influence the atmospheric burden of various aerosol types very differently, with impacts generally being larger for secondary species, sulfate and nitrate, than for primary species, black carbon and particulate organic matter. While the changes in the burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and particulate organic matter show an almost linear response for changes in the emission strength, the formation of nitrate was found to be contingent upon many more factors, e.g., the abundance of sulfuric acid, than only upon the strength of the nitrogen oxide emissions. The generic tracer experiments were further extended to conduct the first risk assessment to obtain the cumulative risk of contamination from multiple nuclear reactor accidents on the global scale. For this, many factors had to be taken into account: the probability of major accidents, the cumulative deposition field of the radionuclide cesium-137, and a threshold value that defines contamination. By collecting the necessary data and after accounting for uncertainties, it was found that the risk is highest in western Europe, the eastern US, and in Japan, where on average contamination by major accidents is expected about every 50 years.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

Emergency response to railroad accidents involving hazardous materials

The chemical industry has to face safety problems linked to the hazards of chemicals and the risks posed by the plants where they are handled. However, their transport may cause significant risk values too: it’s not totally possible to avoid the occurrence of accidents. This work is focused on the emergency response to railway accidents involving hazardous materials, that is what has to be done once they happen to limit their consequences. A first effort has been devoted to understand the role given to this theme within legislations: it has been found out that often it’s not even taken into account. Exceptionally a few countries adopt guidelines suggesting how to plan the response, who is appointed to intervene and which actions should be taken first. An investigation has been made to define the tools available for the responders, with attention on the availability of chemical-specific safety distances. It has emerged that the ERG book adopted by some American countries has suggestions and the Belgian legislation too establishes criteria to evaluate these distances. An analysis has been conducted then on the most recent accidents occurred worldwide, to understand how the response was performed and which safety distances were adopted. These values were compared with the numbers reported by the ERG book and the results of two devoted software tools for consequence analysis of accidental spills scenarios. This comparison has shown that there are differences between them and that a more standardized approach is necessary. This is why further developments of the topic should focus on promoting uniform procedures for emergency response planning and on a worldwide adoption of a guidebook with suggestions about actions to reduce consequences and about safety distances, determined following finer researches. For this aim, the development of a detailed database of hazardous materials transportation accidents could be useful.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.

Aircraft noise, air pollution, and mortality from myocardial infarction

Objective: Myocardial infarction has been associated with both transportation noise and air pollution. We examined residential exposure to aircraft noise and mortality from myocardial infarction, taking air pollution into account. Methods: We analyzed the Swiss National Cohort, which includes geocoded information on residence. Exposure to aircraft noise and air pollution was determined based on geospatial noise and air-pollution (PM10) models and distance to major roads. We used Cox proportional hazard models, with age as the timescale. We compared the risk of death across categories of A-weighted sound pressure levels (dB(A)) and by duration of living in exposed corridors, adjusting for PM10 levels, distance to major roads, sex, education, and socioeconomic position of the municipality. Results: We analyzed 4.6 million persons older than 30 years who were followed from near the end of 2000 through December 2005, including 15,532 deaths from myocardial infarction (ICD-10 codes I 21, I 22). Mortality increased with increasing level and duration of aircraft noise. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing ≥60 dB(A) with <45 dB(A) was 1.3 (95% confidence interval = 0.96-1.7) overall, and 1.5 (1.0-2.2) in persons who had lived at the same place for at least 15 years. None of the other endpoints (mortality from all causes, all circulatory disease, cerebrovascular disease, stroke, and lung cancer) was associated with aircraft noise. Conclusion: Aircraft noise was associated with mortality from myocardial infarction, with a dose-response relationship for level and duration of exposure. The association does not appear to be explained by exposure to particulate matter air pollution, education, or socioeconomic status of the municipality.

Cerebrovascular accidents in adult patients with congenital heart disease

To investigate the prevalence and characteristics of cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in a large population of adults with congenital heart disease (CHD).

Income, Trade and Pollution in Central Asia, Russia and China: An Econometric Analysis

The study performs a panel estimation of the relationship between per capita income, trade, and airborne pollution in the five Central Asian nations, Russia and China between 1992 and 2008. First, this study uses an environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC)- an inverted-U relationship between the increase in income and the level of environmental degradation - to examine how income and pollution are related. Second, the study uses a gravity model to estimate the effect of a regional trade agreement (Shanghai Cooperation Organization: SCO) on incomes and carbon dioxide emissions in the region. Empirical analysis confirms the existence of the rising portion of the EKC curve in the region - a positive correlation between per capita income growth and carbon dioxide emissions- and that the volume of bilateral trade, and not the existence of a regional trade agreement, contributes to the increasing level of environmental pollution.

Income, Trade and Pollution in Central Asia, Russia and China: An Econometric Analysis

The study performs a panel estimation of the relationship between per capita income, trade, and airborne pollution in the five Central Asian nations, Russia and China between 1992 and 2008. First, this study uses an environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC)- an inverted-U relationship between the increase in income and the level of environmental degradation - to examine how income and pollution are related. Second, the study uses a gravity model to estimate the effect of a regional trade agreement (Shanghai Cooperation Organization: SCO) on incomes and carbon dioxide emissions in the region. Empirical analysis confirms the existence of the rising portion of the EKC curve in the region - a positive correlation between per capita income growth and carbon dioxide emissions- and that the volume of bilateral trade, and not the existence of a regional trade agreement, contributes to the increasing level of environmental pollution.

Cerebrovascular accidents complicating transcatheter aortic valve implantation: frequency, timing and impact on outcomes

Cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) are considered among the most serious adverse events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The objective of the present study was to evaluate the frequency and timing of CVA after TAVI and to investigate the impact on clinical outcomes within 30 days of the procedure.

Exposure to moderate air pollution during late pregnancy and cord blood cytokine secretion in healthy neonates

Background/Objectives Ambient air pollution can alter cytokine concentrations as shown in vitro and following short-term exposure to high air pollution levels in vivo. Exposure to pollution during late pregnancy has been shown to affect fetal lymphocytic immunophenotypes. However, effects of prenatal exposure to moderate levels of air pollutants on cytokine regulation in cord blood of healthy infants are unknown. Methods In a birth cohort of 265 healthy term-born neonates, we assessed maternal exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM10), as well as to indoor air pollution during the last trimester, specifically the last 21, 14, 7, 3 and 1 days of pregnancy. As a proxy for traffic-related air pollution, we determined the distance of mothers' homes to major roads. We measured cytokine and chemokine levels (MCP-1, IL-6, IL-10, IL-1ß, TNF-α and GM-CSF) in cord blood serum using LUMINEX technology. Their association with pollution levels was assessed using regression analysis, adjusted for possible confounders. Results Mean (95%-CI) PM10 exposure for the last 7 days of pregnancy was 18.3 (10.3–38.4 µg/m3). PM10 exposure during the last 3 days of pregnancy was significantly associated with reduced IL-10 and during the last 3 months of pregnancy with increased IL-1ß levels in cord blood after adjustment for relevant confounders. Maternal smoking was associated with reduced IL-6 levels. For the other cytokines no association was found. Conclusions Our results suggest that even naturally occurring prenatal exposure to moderate amounts of indoor and outdoor air pollution may lead to changes in cord blood cytokine levels in a population based cohort.