National policies for technical change: Where are the increasing returns to economic research?

Improvements over the past 30 years in statistical data, analysis, and related theory have strengthened the basis for science and technology policy by confirming the importance of technical change in national economic performance. But two important features of scientific and technological activities in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are still not addressed adequately in mainstream economics: (i) the justification of public funding for basic research and (ii) persistent international differences in investment in research and development and related activities. In addition, one major gap is now emerging in our systems of empirical measurement—the development of software technology, especially in the service sector. There are therefore dangers of diminishing returns to the usefulness of economic research, which continues to rely completely on established theory and established statistical sources. Alternative propositions that deserve serious consideration are: (i) the economic usefulness of basic research is in the provision of (mainly tacit) skills rather than codified and applicable information; (ii) in developing and exploiting technological opportunities, institutional competencies are just as important as the incentive structures that they face; and (iii) software technology developed in traditional service sectors may now be a more important locus of technical change than software technology developed in “high-tech” manufacturing.

Global and local implications of biotechnology and climate change for future food supplies

The development of improved technology for agricultural production and its diffusion to farmers is a process requiring investment and time. A large number of studies of this process have been undertaken. The findings of these studies have been incorporated into a quantitative policy model projecting supplies of commodities (in terms of area and crop yields), equilibrium prices, and international trade volumes to the year 2020. These projections show that a “global food crisis,” as would be manifested in high commodity prices, is unlikely to occur. The same projections show, however, that in many countries, “local food crisis,” as manifested in low agricultural incomes and associated low food consumption in the presence of low food prices, will occur. Simulations show that delays in the diffusion of modern biotechnology research capabilities to developing countries will exacerbate local food crises. Similarly, global climate change will also exacerbate these crises, accentuating the importance of bringing strengthened research capabilities to developing countries.

Soil quality response to land-use change for sugarcane expansion in Brazil

Globally, increasing demands for biofuels have intensified the rate of land-use change (LUC) for expansion of bioenergy crops. In Brazil, the world\'s largest sugarcane-ethanol producer, sugarcane area has expanded by 35% (3.2 Mha) in the last decade. Sugarcane expansion has resulted in extensive pastures being subjected to intensive mechanization and large inputs of agrochemicals, which have direct implications on soil quality (SQ). We hypothesized that LUC to support sugarcane expansion leads to overall SQ degradation. To test this hypothesis we conducted a field-study at three sites in the central-southern region, to assess the SQ response to the primary LUC sequence (i.e., native vegetation to pasture to sugarcane) associated to sugarcane expansion in Brazil. At each land use site undisturbed and disturbed soil samples were collected from the 0-10, 10-20 and 20-30 cm depths. Soil chemical and physical attributes were measured through on-farm and laboratory analyses. A dataset of soil biological attributes was also included in this study. Initially, the LUC effects on each individual soil indicator were quantified. Afterward, the LUC effects on overall SQ were assessed using the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF). Furthermore, six SQ indexes (SQI) were developed using approaches with increasing complexity. Our results showed that long-term conversion from native vegetation to extensive pasture led to soil acidification, significant depletion of soil organic carbon (SOC) and macronutrients [especially phosphorus (P)] and severe soil compaction, which creates an unbalanced ratio between water- and air-filled pore space within the soil and increases mechanical resistance to root growth. Conversion from pasture to sugarcane improved soil chemical quality by correcting for acidity and increasing macronutrient levels. Despite those improvements, most of the P added by fertilizer accumulated in less plant-available P forms, confirming the key role of organic P has in providing available P to plants in Brazilian soils. Long-term sugarcane production subsequently led to further SOC depletions. Sugarcane production had slight negative impacts on soil physical attributes compared to pasture land. Although tillage performed for sugarcane planting and replanting alleviates soil compaction, our data suggested that the effects are short-term with persistent, reoccurring soil consolidation that increases erosion risk over time. These soil physical changes, induced by LUC, were detected by quantitative soil physical properties as well as by visual evaluation of soil structure (VESS), an on-farm and user-friendly method for evaluating SQ. The SMAF efficiently detected overall SQ response to LUC and it could be reliably used under Brazilian soil conditions. Furthermore, since all of the SQI values developed in this study were able to rank SQ among land uses. We recommend that simpler and more cost-effective SQI strategies using a small number of carefully chosen soil indicators, such as: pH, P, K, VESS and SOC, and proportional weighting within of each soil sectors (chemical, physical and biological) be used as a protocol for SQ assessments in Brazilian sugarcane areas. The SMAF and SQI scores suggested that long-term conversion from native vegetation to extensive pasture depleted overall SQ, driven by decreases in chemical, physical and biological indicators. In contrast, conversion from pasture to sugarcane had no negative impacts on overall SQ, mainly because chemical improvements offset negative impacts on biological and physical indicators. Therefore, our findings can be used as scientific base by farmers, extension agents and public policy makers to adopt and develop management strategies that sustain and/or improving SQ and the sustainability of sugarcane production in Brazil.

A Discursive Perspective on China's Global Politics of Climate Change, 1992-2013

This dissertation investigates China’s recent shift in its climate change policy with a refined discourse approach. Methodologically, by adopting a neo-Gramscian notion of hegemony, a generative definition of discourse and an ontological pluralist position, the study constructs a theoretical framework named “discursive hegemony” that identifies the “social forces” for enabling social change and focuses on the role of discursive mechanisms via which the forces operate and produce effects. The key empirical finding of this study was that it was a co-evolution of conditions that shaped the outcome as China’s climate policy shift. In examining the case, a before-after within-case comparison was designed to analyze the variations in the material, institutional, and ideational conditions, with methods including interviews, conventional narrative/text analysis and descriptive statistics. Specifically, changes in energy use, the structure of decision-making body, and the narratives about sustainable development reflected how the above three types of social force processed in China in the first few years of the 21st century, causing the economic development agenda to absorb the climate issue, and turning the policy frame for the latter from mainly a diplomatic matter to a potential opportunity for better-quality growth. With the discursive operation of the “Science-based development”, China’s energy policy has been a good example of the Chinese understanding of sustainability characterized by economic primacy, ecological viability and social green-engineering. This way of discursive evolution, however, is a double-edged sword that has pushed forward some fast, top-down mitigation measures on the one hand, but has also created and will likely continue creating social and ecological havoc on the other hand. The study makes two major contributions. First and on the empirical level, because China is an international actor that was not expected to cooperate on the climate issue according to major IR theories, this study would add one critical case to the studies on global (environmental) governance and the ideational approach in the IR discipline. Second and on the theory-building level, the model of discursive hegemony can be a causally deeper mode of explanation because it traces the process of co-evolution of social forces.

An Analysis of Effective Components of Climate Change Policies in Three Colorado Counties

Climate change is critically impacting the environment and economy at the local level. County governments have an opportunity to adopt climate change policies that address local environmental and economic concerns. The Colorado counties of Boulder, Gunnison, and Pitkin have all adopted some form of climate change policies. There are some components of each of these policies that are more effective in terms of economic, environmental, and community benefits. An effective climate change policy clearly states specific cost analyses, environmental impacts at the local level, the relationship between impacts and the community, and the economic benefits of policy adoption. This Capstone project addresses specific cost and energy analyses and provides a beneficial policy framework for county governments.

The Effects of Climate Change on Algae in the Denver Metro Area's Drinking Water Reservoirs

Six Denver metro water reservoirs were sampled to see what types of algae were found, and what impact the algae would have on drinking water reservoirs in the event of a bloom caused by warming water temperatures. Each sample contained algae. Toxic cyanobacteria, filamentous green algae, and different species of diatoms were found in the samples. Current climate change models show the temperature along the Front Range is rising and will continue to rise. With an increase in climate change and an increase in population, humans and animals will be at a greater risk of ingesting or coming into contact with toxic algae.

Recommendations for Creating and Implementing Climate Change Mitigation Strategies for Municipalities

The effects of climate change are beginning to show themselves globally and not enough is being done to counteract these changes. Institutional action is a necessity, and municipalities have an opportunity to fill this void by developing mitigation strategies that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This report critically reviews the municipal climate action plans for Portland, Oregon; Boulder, Colorado; and Toronto, Ontario and provides recommendations for other municipalities who wish to create and implement climate change mitigation plans.

The impact of demographic change and its challenges for the workforce in the European public sectors. Three priority areas to invest in future HRM. EIPA Working Paper 2012/W/01

European public sectors are particularly affected by the demographic challenge and an ageing and shrinking workforce. According to OECD statistics, over 30% of public employees of central government in 13 countries will leave during the next 15 years. Moreover, the public sector has as compared to the private sector to rely on a much older workforce, who will have to work longer in future. Against this background, European governments need to react and re-think major elements of current HR and organisational management in the public sector. Particularly the skills in age management should be improved in order to also maintain in future a highly productive, competent and efficient public sector and to ensure that public employees stay longer ‘employable’, ‘healthy’, ‘fit for the job’ and ‘up to the task’. The survey suggests some solutions by investing more in three priority areas in the field of HRM.

An Assessment of US Progress towards its Pledge on Climate Change Mitigation. CEPS ECP Report No. 12, 15 October 2012

In 2009, President Obama pledged that, by 2020, the United States would achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of 17% from 2005 levels. With the failure of Congress to adopt comprehensive climate legislation in 2010, the feasibility of the pledge was put in doubt. However, we find that the United States is near to reaching this goal: the country is currently on course to achieve reductions of 16.3% from 2005 levels in 2020. Three factors contribute to this outcome: greenhouse gas regulations under the Clean Air Act, secular trends including changes in relative fuel prices and energy efficiency and sub-national efforts. Perhaps even more surprising, domestic emissions are probably lower than would have been the case if the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade proposal had become law in 2010. At this point, however, the United States is expected to fail to meet its financing commitments under the Copenhagen Accord for 2020.

Towards a new multilateral energy architecture? Security Policy Brief No. 39, October 2012

From climate change over peak oil to the geopolitical scramble for the Arctic, there are ample signs that a global energy crisis is unfolding. The sheer scale and urgency of this looming crisis calls for international coordination. Yet, even a cursory look at the existing international energy institutions leads to a sobering conclusion: the global energy governance architecture is weak, fragmented and incomplete. This policy brief discusses both the flaws in the multilateral energy architecture and some emerging ideas to strengthen it, such as the proposal for a Sustainable Energy Trade Agreement and the new American disclosure rules for the extractive sector.

From supervision to resolution: next steps on the road to European Banking Union. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/04, February 2012

The European Council has outlined the creation of a Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM), complementing the Single Supervisory Mechanism. The thinking on the SRM’s legal basis, design and mission is still preliminary and depends on other major initiatives, including the European Stability Mechanism’s involvement in bank recapitalisations and the Bank Recovery and Resolution (BRR) Directive. The SRM should also not be seen as the final step creating Europe’s future banking union. Both the BRR Directive and the SRM should be designed to enable the substantial financial participation of existing creditors in future bank restructurings. To be effective, the SRM should empower a central body. However, in the absence of Treaty change and of further fiscal integration, SRM decisions will need to be implemented through national resolution regimes. The central body of the SRM should be either the European Commission, or a new authority. This legislative effort should not be taken as an excuse to delay decisive action on the management and resolution of the current European banking fragility, which imposes a major drag on Europe’s growth and employment.

A Copernican Turn for Banking Union. CEPS Policy Brief No. 290, 14 May 2013

Despite apparent consensus that the creation of a ‘Banking Union’ is essential for the survival of the euro, progress is painfully slow. The Single Supervisory Mechanism may not be ready before the middle of next year, the Single Resolution Mechanism may require a laborious change of the EU Treaty and common deposit insurance has been postponed into the indefinite future. Any real progress has been prevented by the protracted fights over which government will be the payer of last resort when banks fail because of past bad loans. In this Policy Brief, Thomas Mayer suggests that a radically new approach is needed if there is any prospect of moving beyond this impasse to reach full Banking Union. Instead of trying to move from common bank supervision over to resolution and then on to deposit insurance, he argues that policy-makers should go backwards and start with deposit insurance, move from there to resolution, and end with supervision.

spotlight Europe 2013/04 — Mai 2013: Nordafrika im Wandel – Chancen mit und für Europa = North Africa in change - an opportunity for and with Europe

North Africa’s youthful societies look back with pride at their recent uprisings. However, they are also getting frustrated by the fact that the economic outlook is not improving. Europe’s role in the southern Mediterranean area needs to be realigned in order to promote the development of democracy, employment opportunities, and security. Because "there is a great deal of potential for cooperation with Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt?" argue our authors Christian P. Hanelt and Sven Behrendt.

Pathways to Low Carbon Transport in the EU – From Possibility to Reality. Report of the CEPS Task Force on transport and climate change. CEPS Task Force Report, June 2013

A new CEPS Task Force Report has identified possible pathways for achieving the EU’s ambitious climate change targets. It concludes that a GHG emissions reduction in line with EU climate change policy is possible, but it requires immediate action. This report argues that most of the reductions required of the transport sector in the EU could come from more energy-efficient vehicles, combined with the gradual introduction of low-carbon fuels and new engine technologies. The key policy for reducing GHG emissions in road transport is the steady tightening of emissions standards in line with technological progress. The report also identifies strategies for the transport system to become more energy and/or carbon efficient, arguing that leverage can be further enhanced by local and city governments’ incentives for efficient and low-carbon vehicles in line with local circumstances and choices. The Task Force on Low Carbon Transport brought together a diverse set of stakeholders from the car and oil industries, business associations, international organisations, member states, academic experts and NGOs. This authoritative report is the result of that unique collaboration.

A realistic bridge towards European banking union. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/09, June 2013

New obstacles to the European banking union have emerged over the last year, but a successful transition remains both necessary and possible. The key next step will be in the second half of 2014, when the European Central Bank (ECB) will gain supervisory authority over most of Europe’s banking system. This needs to be preceded by a rigorous balance sheet assessment that is likely to trigger significant bank restructuring, for which preparation has barely started. It will be much more significant than current discussions about a bank resolution directive and bank recapitalisation by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The 2014 handover, and a subsequent change in the European treaties that will establish the robust legal basis needed for a sustainable banking union, together define the policy sequence as a bridge that can allow Europe to cross the choppy waters that separate it from a steady-state banking policy framework.