Analysis of the differences between the rates of inflation associated with two aggregate price level: The case of the euro area and the United States

Idioma: Inglés Abstract: This project focuses on two indicators of prices, the GDP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI), and analyzes the differences and similarities they present. These price indexes have been chosen taking into account its great representativeness and importance to economic and social level, and its direct relationship to the overall functioning of the economy and, in particular, inflation. It should be also mentioned that this study was conducted for cases of the euro area and the United States, as the impact of these economies in the economic and social situation at international level is very significant.

Effect of crude oil and some petroleum products on Clarias Gariepinus fingerlings (Catfish: Claridae)

Ninety (90) hatchery bred fingerlings of Clarias gariepinus (mean weight: 0.96 ± 0.1g) were randomly placed in 15 plastic baths (25 litres each) at the Research laboratory and were exposed to different concentrations of oil products to determine their effects on the fish, to facilitate inferential deductions that will enhance effective aquatic environmental management. Three (3) replicate basins of 5 experimental treatments (crude oil, petrol oil, kerosene oil, engine oil and control) were used at a concentration of 1.25ml. L-1. The control experiment was devoid of oil treatment. Six (6) fingerlings were placed in each replicate basin, flooded with 20 litres of clean tap water and fed with nutrafin cichilid food, 2 times daily at 3% body weight. The results showed that the feeding behaviour and swimming performances of fish were reduced after 24 hours of the addition of the various oil pollutants. Mortality of fingerlings in the oiled basins increased as the hours of exposure increased (i.e. 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours). Recovery was not immediate in the treated basin while surviving fingerlings in the control basins grew up to post-fingerlings after 90 days (3 months). There were significant differences (P<0.01 and P<0.05) in the effect of crude oil and the petroleum products on the mortality rate of C. gariepinus when exposed to oil pollutants at 1.25ml. L-1 concentration

Aspects of mineral composition of male and female Heterobranchus bidorsalis adults exposed to different concentrations of Bonny-light crude oil

Studies were carried out to assess some macro and trace elements of mineral composition of the male and female Heterobranchus bidorsalis adults exposed to graded concentrations (1.00-8.00m/L-1) of Bonny-light crude oil (BLCO). The experiment was monitored for 4 days (toxicity) and 42days (recovery) periods. Significant decreases (P < 0.05)in the sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), zinc (Zn), iron (Fe), vanadium (Va), lead (Pb) and manganese (Mn) contents of the male H. bidorsalis corresponded with the increasing concentrations of BLCO. In contrast, the female fishes recorded significant increases (P < 0.05) in the values of the above elements in their tissues as the concentrations of BLCO increased. Furthermore, the values of Na, K, Mg, Ca, P, Zn, Fe, Va, Pb and Mn recorded in the male fishes where generally lower than those of their female counterparts and the control fish. Increased values of these elements were also recorded during the recovery periods (days 14, 28 and 42) of this study in the magnitudes of 15% at day 14, 20% at day 28 and 20% at day 42. This implied that the removal of crude oil stress during this period improved the quantity of these minerals deposited in the fish tissues. The highest percent proportion of Zn and the lowest proportion of Pb recorded in both male and female H. bidorsalis adults agreed with the report of other workers for other fish species. KEYWORDS: Heterobranchus bidorsalis, Mineral composition, Bonny-light crude oil, Toxicity, Recovery.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC), and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC) price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema de contaminação de meios porosos heterogêneos

As técnicas de injeção de traçadores têm sido amplamente utilizadas na investigação de escoamentos em meios porosos, principalmente em problemas envolvendo a simulação numérica de escoamentos miscíveis em reservatórios de petróleo e o transporte de contaminantes em aquíferos. Reservatórios subterrâneos são em geral heterogêneos e podem apresentar variações significativas das suas propriedades em várias escalas de comprimento. Estas variações espaciais são incorporadas às equações que governam o escoamento no interior do meio poroso por meio de campos aleatórios. Estes campos podem prover uma descrição das heterogeneidades da formação subterrânea nos casos onde o conhecimento geológico não fornece o detalhamento necessário para a predição determinística do escoamento através do meio poroso. Nesta tese é empregado um modelo lognormal para o campo de permeabilidades a fim de reproduzir-se a distribuição de permeabilidades do meio real, e a geração numérica destes campos aleatórios é feita pelo método da Soma Sucessiva de Campos Gaussianos Independentes (SSCGI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho é o estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema inverso do transporte de um traçador em um meio poroso heterogêneo empregando uma abordagem Bayesiana para a atualização dos campos de permeabilidades, baseada na medição dos valores da concentração espacial do traçador em tempos específicos. Um método do tipo Markov Chain Monte Carlo a dois estágios é utilizado na amostragem da distribuição de probabilidade a posteriori e a cadeia de Markov é construída a partir da reconstrução aleatória dos campos de permeabilidades. Na resolução do problema de pressão-velocidade que governa o escoamento empregase um método do tipo Elementos Finitos Mistos adequado para o cálculo acurado dos fluxos em campos de permeabilidades heterogêneos e uma abordagem Lagrangiana, o método Forward Integral Tracking (FIT), é utilizada na simulação numérica do problema do transporte do traçador. Resultados numéricos são obtidos e apresentados para um conjunto de realizações amostrais dos campos de permeabilidades.

A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.