Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Age, growth, and spawning season of red bream (Beryx decadactylus) off the southeastern United States

Red bream (Beryx decadactylus) is a commercially important deep-sea benthopelagic fish with a circumglobal distribution on insular and continental slopes and seamounts. In the United States, small numbers are caught incidentally in the wreckfish (Polyprion americanus) fishery which operates off the southeastern coast, but no biological information exists for the management of the U.S. red bream population. For this study, otoliths (n=163) and gonads (n=161) were collected from commercially caught red bream between 2003 and 2008 to determine life history parameters. Specimens ranged in size from 410 to 630 mm fork length and were all determined to be mature by histological examination of the gonads. Females in spawning condition were observed from June through September, and reproductively active males were found year-round. Sectioned otoliths were difficult to interpret, but maximum age estimates were much higher than the 15 years previously reported for this species from the eastern North Atlantic based on whole-otolith analysis. Estimated ages ranged from 8 to 69 years, and a minimum lifespan of 49 years was validated by using bomb radiocarbon dating. Natural mortality was estimated at 0.06/yr. This study shows that red bream are longer lived and more vulnerable to overfishing than previously assumed and should be managed carefully to prevent overexploitation.

Species compositions of elasmobranchs caught by three different commercial fishing methods off southwestern Australia, and biological data for four abundant bycatch species

Commercial catches taken in southwestern Australian waters by trawl fisheries targeting prawns and scallops and from gillnet and longline fisheries targeting sharks were sampled at different times of the year between 2002 and 2008. This sampling yielded 33 elasmobranch species representing 17 families. Multivariate statistics elucidated the ways in which the species compositions of elasmobranchs differed among fishing methods and provided benchmark data for detecting changes in the elasmobranch fauna in the future. Virtually all elasmobranchs caught by trawling, which consisted predominantly of rays, were discarded as bycatch, as were approximately a quarter of the elasmobranchs caught by both gillnetting and longlining. The maximum lengths and the lengths at maturity of four abundant bycatch species, Heterodontus portusjacksoni, Aptychotrema vincentiana, Squatina australis, and Myliobatis australis, were greater for females than males. The L50 determined for the males of these species at maturity by using full clasper calcification as the criterion of maturity did not differ significantly from the corresponding L50 derived by using gonadal data as the criterion for maturity. The proportions of the individuals of these species with lengths less than those at which 50% reach maturity were far greater in trawl samples than in gillnet and longline samples. This result was due to differences in gear selectivity and to trawling being undertaken in shallow inshore waters that act as nursery areas for these species. Sound quantitative data on the species compositions of elasmobranchs caught by commercial fisheries and the biological characteristics of the main elasmobranch bycatch species are crucial for developing strategies for conserving these important species and thus the marine ecosystems of which they are part.

Influence of ocean conditions on the timing of early life history events for blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) off California

Settled juvenile blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) were collected from two kelp beds approximately 335 km apart off Mendocino in northern California and Monterey in central California. A total of 112 rockfish were collected from both sites over 5 years (1993, 1994, 2001, 2002, and 2003). Total age, settlement date, age at settlement, and birth date were determined from otolith microstructure. Fish off Mendocino settled mostly in June and fish off Monterey settled mostly in May (average difference in settlement=23 days). Although the difference in the timing of settlement followed this same pattern for both areas over the five years, settlement occurred later in 2002 and 2003 than in the prior years of sampling. The difference in the timing of settlement was due primarily to differences in birth dates for the two areas. The time of settlement was positively related to upwelling and negatively related to sea level anomaly for most of the months before settlement. Knowledge of the timing of settlement has implications for design and placement of marine protected areas because protection of nursery grounds is frequently a major objective of these protected areas. The timing of settlement is also an important consideration in the planning of surveys of early recruits because mistimed surveys (caused by latitudinal differences in the timing of settlement) could produce biased estimates.

Day and night abundance, distribution, and activity patterns of demersal fishes on Heceta Bank, Oregon

Most shallow-dwelling tropical marine fishes exhibit different activity patterns during the day and night but show similar transition behavior among habitat sites despite the dissimilar assemblages of the species. However, changes in species abundance, distribution, and activity patterns have only rarely been examined in temperate deepwater habitats during the day and night, where day-to-night differences in light intensity are extremely slight. Direct-observation surveys were conducted over several depths and habitat types on Heceta Bank, the largest rocky bank off the Oregon coast. Day and night fish community composition, relative density, and activity levels were compared by using videotape footage from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) operated along paired transects. Habitat-specific abundance and activity were determined for 31 taxa or groups. General patterns observed were similar to shallow temperate day and night studies, with an overall increase in the abundance and activity of fishes during the day than at night, particularly in shallower cobble, boulder, and rock ridge habitats. Smaller schooling rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) were more abundant and active in day than in night transects, and sharpchin (S. zacentrus) and harlequin (S. variegatus) rockfish were significantly more abundant in night transects. Most taxa, however, did not exhibit distinct diurnal or nocturnal activity patterns. Rosethorn rockfish (S. helvomaculatus) and hagfishes (Eptatretus spp.) showed the clearest diurnal and nocturnal activity patterns, respectively. Because day and night distributions and activity patterns in demersal fishes are likely to influence both catchability and observability in bottom trawl and direct-count in situ surveys, the patterns observed in the current study should be considered for survey design and interpretation.

Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

Flatfish herding behavior in response to trawl sweeps: a comparison of diel responses to conventional sweeps and elevated sweeps

Commercial bottom trawls often have sweeps to herd fish into the net. Elevation of the sweeps off the seaf loor may reduce seafloor disturbance, but also reduce herding effectiveness. In both field and laboratory experiments, we examined the behavior of flatfish in response to sweeps. We tested the hypotheses that 1) sweeps are more effective at herding flatfish during the day than at night, when fish are unable to see approaching gear, and that 2) elevation of sweeps off the seafloor reduces herding during the day, but not at night. In sea trials, day catches were greater than night catches for four out of six flatfish species examined. The elevation of sweeps 10 cm significantly decreased catches during the day, but not at night. Laboratory experiments revealed northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) were more likely to be herded by the sweep in the light, whereas in the dark they tended to pass under or over the sweep. In the light, elevation of the sweep reduced herding, and more fish passed under the sweep. In contrast, in the dark, sweep elevation had little effect upon the number of fish that exhibited herding behavior. The results of both field and laboratory experiments were consistent with the premise that vision is the principle sensory input that controls fish behavior and orientation to trawl gear, and gear performance will differ between conditions where flatfish can see, in contrast to where they cannot see, the approaching gear.

Biomass and reproduction of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off the Pacific northwestern United States, 2003–2005

The Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) is distributed along the west coast of North America from Baja California to British Columbia. This article presents estimates of biomass, spawning biomass, and related biological parameters based on four trawl-ichthyoplankton surveys conducted during July 2003 –March 2005 off Oregon and Washington. The trawl-based biomass estimates, serving as relative abundance, were 198,600 t (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.51) in July 2003, 20,100 t (0.8) in March 2004, 77,900 t (0.34) in July 2004, and 30,100 t (0.72) in March 2005 over an area close to 200,000 km2. The biomass estimates, high in July and low in March, are a strong indication of migration in and out of this area. Sardine spawn in July off the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast and none of the sampled fish had spawned in March. The estimated spawning biomass for July 2003 and July 2004 was 39,184 t (0.57) and 84,120 t (0.93), respectively. The average active female sardine in the PNW spawned every 20–40 days compared to every 6–8 days off California. The spawning habitat was located in the southeastern area off the PNW coast, a shift from the northwest area off the PNW coast in the 1990s. Egg production in off the PNW for 2003–04 was lower than that off California and that in the 1990s. Because the biomass of Pacific sardine off the PNW appears to be supported heavily by migratory fish from California, the sustainability of the local PNW population relies on the stability of the population off California, and on local oceanographic conditions for local residence.

Seasonal variability in ichthyoplankton abundance and assemblage composition in the northern Gulf of Mexico off Alabama

Multiyear ichthyoplankton surveys used to monitor larval fish seasonality, abundance, and assemblage structure can provide early indicators of regional ecosystem changes. Numerous ichthyoplankton surveys have been conducted in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but few have had high levels of temporal resolution and sample replication. In this study, ichthyoplankton samples were collected monthly (October 2004–October 2006) at a single station off the coast of Alabama as part of a long-term biological survey. Four seasonal periods were identified from observed and historic water temperatures, including a relatively long (June–October) “summer” period (water temperature >26°C). Fish egg abundance, total larval abundance, and larval taxonomic diversity were significantly related to water temperature (but not salinity), with peaks in the spring, spring–summer, and summer periods, respectively. Larvae collected during the survey represented 58 different families, of which engraulids, sciaenids, carangids, and clupeids were the most prominent. The most abundant taxa collected were unidentified engraulids (50%), sand seatrout (Cynoscion arenarius, 7.5%), Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus chrysurus, 5.4%), Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus, 4.4%), Gulf menhaden (Brevoortia patronus, 3.8%), and unidentified gobiids (3.6%). Larval concentrations for dominant taxa were highly variable between years, but the timing of seasonal occurrence for these taxa was relatively consistent. Documented increases in sea surface temperature on the Alabama shelf may have various implications for larval fish dynamics, as indicated by the presence of tropical larval forms (e.g., fistularids, labrids, scarids, and acanthurids) in our ichthyoplankton collections and in recent juvenile surveys of Alabama and northern Gulf of Mexico seagrass habitats.

Dietary variations in three co-occurring rockfish species off the Pacific Northwest during anomalous oceanographic events in 1998 and 1999

Stomach samples from three rockfish species, yellowtail (Sebastes f lavidus), widow (S. entomelas), and canary (S. pinniger) rockfish, seasonally collected off the Pacific Northwest in 1998 and 1999, provided quantitative information on the food habits of these species during and after the 1997–98 El Niño event. Although euphausiids were the most common major prey of all three predators, gelatinous zooplankton and fishes were the most commonly consumed prey items during some seasonal quarters. The influence of the El Niño event was evident in the diets. Anomalous prey items, including the southern euphausiid species Nyctiphanes simplex and juveniles of Pacific whiting (Merluccius productus) frequently appeared in the diets in the spring and summer of 1998. The results of stomach contents analyses, based on 905 stomach samples from 49 trawl hauls during seven commercial fishing trips and from 56 stations during research surveys, were consistent with the timing of occurrence and the magnitude of change in biomass of some zooplankton species reported from zooplankton studies in the northern California Current during the 1997–98 El Niño. Our findings indicate that the observed variations of prey groups in some rockfish diets may be a function of prey variability related to climate and environment changes.

Analysis of sex-specific spawning biomass per recruit of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) in the waters off eastern Taiwan

Analyses of sex-specific yield per recruit and spawning stock biomass per recruit were conducted to evaluate the current status of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) fishery in the waters off eastern Taiwan. Natural mortality rates estimated from Pauly’s empirical equation were 0.26/yr for females and 0.27/yr for males. The current fishing mortality rates were estimated as 0.24/yr and 0.43/yr for females and males, respectively, which are much lower than the estimated F0 .1 (0.62/yr and 0.79/yr for females and males, respectively) and FSSB40 (0.46/yr for females) which are commonly used as target reference points in fisheries management. The effects of the fishing mortality, natural mortality, and age at first capture on the estimates of biological reference points were evaluated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that failure to consider the uncertainty in parameters such as natural mortality or age at first capture may lead to the improper estimation of biological reference points. This study indicates the possibility of current fishing mortality exceeding the target biological reference points may be negligible for sailfish in the waters off eastern Taiwan. However, in view of the recent rapid increase in fishing effort, it is evident that the stock status and development of the fishery need to be closely monitore

The repulsive and feeding-deterrent effects of electropositive metals on juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus)

Reducing shark bycatch and depredation (i.e., damage caused by sharks to gear, bait, and desired fish species) in pelagic longline fisheries targeting tunas and swordfish is a priority. Electropositive metals (i.e., a mixture of the lanthanide elements lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and praseodymium) have been shown to deter spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias, primarily a coastal species) from attacking bait, presumably because of interactions with the electroreceptive system of this shark. We undertook to determine the possible effectiveness of electropositive metals for reducing the interactions of pelagic sharks with longline gear, using sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus, family Carcharhinidae) as a model species. The presence of electropositive metal deterred feeding in groups of juvenile sandbar sharks and altered the swimming patterns of individuals in the absence of food motivation (these individuals generally avoided approaching electropositive metal closer than ~100 cm). The former effect was relatively short-lived however; primarily (we assume) because competition with other individuals increased feeding motivation. In field trials with bottom longline gear, electropositive metal placed within ~10 cm of the hooks reduced the catch of sandbar sharks by approximately two thirds, compared to the catch on hooks in the proximity of plastic pieces of similar dimensions. Electropositive metals therefore appear to have the potential to reduce shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries, although the optimal mass, shape, composition, and distance to baited hooks remain to be determined.

Food habits of Atlantic white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus acutus) off the coast of New England

Although the Atlantic white-sided dolphin (Lagenorhynchus acutus) is one of the most common dolphins off New England, little has been documented about its diet in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Current federal protection of marine mammals limits the supply of animals for investigation to those incidentally caught in the nets of commercial fishermen with observers aboard. Stomachs of 62 L. acutus were examined; of these 62 individuals, 28 of them were caught by net and 34 were animals stranded on Cape Cod. Most of the net-caught L. acutus were from the deeper waters of the Gulf of Maine. A single stomach was from the continental slope south of Georges Bank. At least twenty-six fish species and three cephalopod species were eaten. The predominant prey were silver hake (Merluccius bilinearis), spoonarm octopus (Bathypolypus bairdii), and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus). The stomach from a net-caught L. acutus on the continental slope contained 7750 otoliths of the Madeira lanternfish (Ceratoscopelus maderensis). Sand lances (Ammodytes spp.) were the most abundant (541 otoliths) species in the stomachs of stranded L. acutus. Seasonal variation in diet was indicated; pelagic Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) was the most important prey in summer, but was rare in winter. The average length of fish prey was approximately 200 mm, and the average mantle length of cephalopod prey was approximately 50 mm.

Assessment of fish populations and habitat on Oculina Bank, a deep-sea coral marine protected area off eastern Florida

A portion of the Oculina Bank located off eastern Florida is a marine protected area (MPA) preserved for its dense populations of the ivory tree coral (Oculina varicosa), which provides important habitat for fish. Surveys of fish assemblages and benthic habitat were conducted inside and outside the MPA in 2003 and 2005 by using remotely operated vehicle video transects and digital still imagery. Fish species composition, biodiversity, and grouper densities were used to determine whether O. varicosa forms an essential habitat compared to other structure-forming habitats and to examine the effectiveness of the MPA. Multivariate analyses indicated no differences in fish assemblages or biodiversity among hardbottom habitat types and grouper densities were highest among the most complex habitats; however the higher densities were not exclusive to coral habitat. Therefore, we conclude that O. varicosa was functionally equivalent to other hardbottom habitats. Even though fish assemblages were not different among management areas, biodiversity and grouper densities were higher inside the MPA compared to outside. The percentage of intact coral was also higher inside the MPA. These results provide initial evidence demonstrating effectiveness of the MPA for restoring reef fish and their habitat. This is the first study to compare reef fish populations on O. varicosa with other structure-forming reef habitats and also the first to examine the effectiveness of the MPA for restoring fish populations and live reef cover.

Evidence of the selection of tidal streams by northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) for transport in the eastern Bering Sea

Depth data from archival tags on northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) were examined to assess whether fish used tidal currents to aid horizontal migration. Two northern rock sole, out of 115 released with archival tags in the eastern Bering Sea, were recovered 314 and 667 days after release. Both fish made periodic excursions away from the bottom during mostly night-time hours, but also during particular phases of the tide cycle. One fish that was captured and released in an area of rotary currents made vertical excursions that were correlated with tidal current direction. To test the hypothesis that the fish made vertical excursions to use tidal currents to aid migration, a hypothetical migratory path was calculated using a tide model to predict the current direction and speed during periods when the fish was off the bottom. This migration included limited movements from July through December, followed by a 200-km southern migration from January through February, then a return northward in March and April. The successful application of tidal current information to predict a horizontal migratory path not only provides evidence of selective tidal stream transport but indicates that vertical excursions were conducted primarily to assist horizontal migration.