Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for Coronary Artery Disease in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul

OBJECTIVE - To determine the risk factors prevalence for coronary artery disease in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil and to identify their relation with the age bracket. METHODS - We carried out an observational, cross-sectional study of 1,066 adults older than 20 years in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul. We investigated the risk factors: familial antecedents, systemic arterial hypertension, high levels of cholesterol and glycemia, overweight/obesity, smoking and sedentary lifestyle. A standardized questionnaire completed at the patients' dwellings by health agents were used; the data were stored in an EPI-INFO software database. The results were expressed with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS - The sample composition was of 51.8% females. The risk factors prevalences were: 1) sedentary lifestyle 71.3%; 2) familial antecedents: 57.3%; 3) overweight/obesity (body mass index >25): 54.7%; 4) smokers: 33.9%; 5) hypertension: 31.6% (considering >140/90mmHg) and 14.4% (considering >160/95mmHg); 6) high glycemia (>126 mg/dL): 7%; 7) high cholesterol >240 mg/dL): 5.6%. CONCLUSION - The prevalence of the major risk factors for coronary artery disease in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul could be determined in a study that integrated public and private institutions.

Correlations Between the Collagen Content of the Human Left Ventricular Myocardium, Measured by Biochemical and Morphometric Methods

OBJECTIVE: To assess, in myocardium specimens obtained from necropsies, the correlation between the concentration of hydroxyproline, measured with the photocolorimetric method, and the intensity of fibrosis, determined with the morphometric method. METHODS: Left ventricle myocardium samples were obtained from 45 patients who had undergone necropsy, some of them with a variety of cardiopathies and others without any heart disease. The concentrations of hydroxyproline were determined with the photocolorimetric method. In the histologic sections from each heart, the myocardial fibrosis was quantified by using a light microscope with an integrating ocular lens. RESULTS: A median of, respectively, 4.5 and 4.3 mug of hydroxyproline/mg of dry weight was found in fixed and nonfixed left ventricle myocardium fragments. A positive correlation occurred between the hydroxyproline concentrations and the intensity of fibrosis, both in the fixed (Sr=+0.25; p=0.099) and in the nonfixed (Sr=+0.32; p=0.03) specimens. CONCLUSION: The biochemical methodology was proven to be adequate, and manual morphometry was shown to have limitations that may interfere with the statistical significance of correlations for the estimate of fibrosis intensity in the human myocardium.

Epidemiological aspects of adherence to the treatment of hypertension

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the reasons given by patients for interrupting their pharmacological treatment of hypertension. METHODS: We carried out an observational cross-sectional study, in which a questionnaire was applied and blood pressure was measured in 401 patients in different centers of the state of Bahia. The patients selected had been diagnosed with hypertension and were not on antihypertensive treatment for at least 60 days. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the groups were analyzed. RESULTS: Of the 401 patients, 58.4% were females, 55.6% of whom white; 60.5% of the males were white. The major reasons alleged for not adhering to treatment were as follows (for males and females respectively): normalization of blood pressure (41.3% and 42.3%); side effects of the medications (31.7% and 24.8%); forgetting to use the medication (25.2% and 20.1%); cost of medication (21.6% and 20.1%); fear of mixing alcohol and medication (23.4% and 3.8%); ignoring the need for continuing the treatment (15% and 21.8%); use of an alternative treatment (11.4% and 17.1%); fear of intoxication (9.6% and 12.4%); fear of hypotension (9.6% and 12%); and fear of mixing the medication with other drugs (8.4% and 6.1%). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that most factors concerning the abandonment of the treatment of hypertension are related to lack of information, and that, despite the advancement in antihypertensive drugs, side effects still account for most abandonments of treatment.

Correlation between turbidimetric and nephelometric methods of measuring C-reactive protein in patients with unstable angina or non-ST elevation acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the turbidimetric method of C-reactive protein (CRP) as a measure of low-grade inflammation in patients admitted with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS: Serum samples obtained at hospital arrival from 68 patients (66±11 years, 40 men), admitted with unstable angina or non-ST elevation acute myocardial infarction were used to measure CRP by the methods of nephelometry and turbidimetry. RESULTS: The medians of C-reactive protein by the turbidimetric and nephelometric methods were 0.5 mg/dL and 0.47 mg/dL, respectively. A strong linear association existed between the 2 methods, according to the regression coefficient (b=0.75; 95% C.I.=0.70-0.80) and correlation coefficient (r=0.96; P<0.001). The mean difference between the nephelometric and turbidimetric CRP was 0.02 ± 0.91 mg/dL, and 100% agreement between the methods in the detection of high CRP was observed. CONCLUSION: In patients with non-ST elevation ACS, CRP values obtained by turbidimetry show a strong linear association with the method of nephelometry and perfect agreement in the detection of high CRP.

Prevalence of dyslipidemia and risk factors in Campos dos Goytacazes, in the Brazilian State of Rio de Janeiro

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of dyslipidemias in adults in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes, in the Brazilian state of Rio de Janeiro, and to identify its relation to risk factors. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based, observational study with sampling through conglomerates and stratified according to socioeconomic levels, sex, and age, with 1,039 individuals. Risk factors, familial history, blood pressure, anthropometric measurements, glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol were determined. RESULTS: The following prevalences were observed: of dyslipidemias 24.2%; of hypercholesterolemia, 4.2%; of elevated LDL-C, 3.5%; of low HDL-C, 18.3%; and of hypertriglyceridemia, 17.1%. The following mean levels were observed: cholesterol, 187.6± 33.7 mg/dL; LDL-C, 108.7±26.8 mg/dL; HDL-C, 48.5±7.7 mg/dL; and triglycerides, 150.1±109.8 mg/dL. The following variables showed a positive correlation with dyslipidemia: increased age (P<0.001), male sex (P<0.001), low familial income (P<0.001), familial history (P<0.01), overweight/obesity (P<0.001), waist measure (P<0.001), high blood pressure (P<0.001), and diabetes mellitus (P<0.001). The following variables had no influence on dyslipidemias: ethnicity, educational level, smoking habits, and sedentary lifestyle. CONCLUSION: The frequency of lipid changes in the population studied was high, suggesting that measures for the early diagnosis should be taken, in association with implementation of programs for primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerosis.

Métodos para el análisis de programas probabilistas y no-deterministas utilizando probadores de teoremas. Methods for the analysis of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs using theorem provers.

La verificación y el análisis de programas con características probabilistas es una tarea necesaria del quehacer científico y tecnológico actual. El éxito y su posterior masificación de las implementaciones de protocolos de comunicación a nivel hardware y soluciones probabilistas a problemas distribuidos hacen más que interesante el uso de agentes estocásticos como elementos de programación. En muchos de estos casos el uso de agentes aleatorios produce soluciones mejores y más eficientes; en otros proveen soluciones donde es imposible encontrarlas por métodos tradicionales. Estos algoritmos se encuentran generalmente embebidos en múltiples mecanismos de hardware, por lo que un error en los mismos puede llegar a producir una multiplicación no deseada de sus efectos nocivos.Actualmente el mayor esfuerzo en el análisis de programas probabilísticos se lleva a cabo en el estudio y desarrollo de herramientas denominadas chequeadores de modelos probabilísticos. Las mismas, dado un modelo finito del sistema estocástico, obtienen de forma automática varias medidas de performance del mismo. Aunque esto puede ser bastante útil a la hora de verificar programas, para sistemas de uso general se hace necesario poder chequear especificaciones más completas que hacen a la corrección del algoritmo. Incluso sería interesante poder obtener automáticamente las propiedades del sistema, en forma de invariantes y contraejemplos.En este proyecto se pretende abordar el problema de análisis estático de programas probabilísticos mediante el uso de herramientas deductivas como probadores de teoremas y SMT solvers. Las mismas han mostrado su madurez y eficacia en atacar problemas de la programación tradicional. Con el fin de no perder automaticidad en los métodos, trabajaremos dentro del marco de "Interpretación Abstracta" el cual nos brinda un delineamiento para nuestro desarrollo teórico. Al mismo tiempo pondremos en práctica estos fundamentos mediante implementaciones concretas que utilicen aquellas herramientas.

Análisis comparativo entre actividades de aprendizaje diseñadas con Estudio de Casos y Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas, y actividades de tipo tradicional, como dispositivos didácticos en Educación a Distancia. Comparative analysis of learning activities designed with Problem Based Learning and Case Study approaches, and activities designed with traditional methods, in Distance Education.

Identificación y caracterización del problema: El problema que guía este proyecto, pretende dar respuesta a interrogantes tales como: ¿De qué modo el tipo de actividades que se diseñan, se constituyen en dispositivos posibilitadores de la comprensión de los temas propios de cada asignatura, por parte de los alumnos? A partir de esta pregunta, surge la siguiente: Al momento de resolver las actividades, ¿qué estrategias cognitivas ponen en juego los estudiantes? y ¿cuáles de ellas favorecen procesos de construcción del conocimiento? Hipótesis: - Las asignaturas cuyas actividades están elaboradas bajo la metodología de Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas y Estudio de Casos, propician aprendizajes significativos por parte de los estudiantes. - Las actividades elaboradas bajo la metodología del Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas y el Estudio de Casos requieren de procesos cognitivos más complejos que los que se implementan en las de tipo tradicional. Objetivo: - Identificar el impacto que tienen las actividades de aprendizaje de tipo tradicional y las elaboradas bajo la metodología de Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas y Estudio de Casos, en el aprendizaje de los alumnos. Materiales y Métodos: a) Análisis de las actividades de aprendizaje del primero y segundo año de la carrera de Abogacía, bajo lamodalidad a Distancia. b) Entrevistas tanto a docentes contenidistas como así también a los tutores. c) Encuestas y entrevistas a los alumnos. Resultados esperados: Se pretende confirmar que las actividades de aprendizaje, diseñadas bajo la metodología del Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas y el Estudio de Casos, promueven aprendizajes significativos en los alumnos. Importancia del proyecto y pertinencia: La relevancia del presente proyecto se podría identificar a través de dos grandes variables vinculadas entre sí: la relacionada con el dispositivo didáctico (estrategias implementadas por los alumnos) y la referida a lo institucional (carácter innovador de la propuesta de enseñanza y posibilidad de extenderla a otras cátedras). El presente proyecto pretende implementar mejoras en el diseño de las actividades de aprendizaje, a fin de promover en los alumnos la generación de ideas y soluciones responsables y el desarrollo de su capacidad analítica y reflexiva.